Mother Jones has a look at research from Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF) into the future of electric vehicles – The Bright Future Ahead for Electric Vehicles, in 4 Charts.
Last month, Elon Musk predicted that the electric vehicle industry will “definitely suffer” from low oil prices—a barrel of crude is about $33 today, down from more than $100 a year ago. Why invest in an electric car when gas is so cheap? And sure enough, sales of gas-guzzling SUVs jumped 10 percent in 2015, while electric vehicle sales dipped 4 percent.But don’t expect that trend to last, even if oil prices stay relatively low. A new market forecast from Bloomberg New Energy Finance paints a rosy picture for the future of electric vehicles, rising from about 1 percent of global annual vehicle sales today to 35 percent by 2040—about 41 million cars.
Wired has a report on the same topic, noting “by 2022, the unsubsidized total cost of ownership of battery electric vehicles will fall below that of an internal combustion engine vehicle” – The Electric Car Revolution Is Now Scheduled for 2022.
Fortune notes there has been a steady shift of focus towards EVs at GM in recent years, claiming “Half of the 8,600 designers and engineers who work on the products and controls that make GM cars and trucks move—literally—are involved with alternative and electric propulsion systems” – GM’s Electric Car Ambitions Are Reshaping the Company.
Bloomberg has an article on BMW’s refocus on EVs as well, noting the BMW iNext is a “self-driving, electric car to supplant the 7-Series sedan as its flagship model in the coming years, responding to the challenges posed by the likes of Apple and Uber Technologies” – BMW Counters Apple Threat With Self-Driving, Electric Car Push.
Tesla is still leading the way when it comes to EV sales. The NY Post reports that Tesla is rolling out a network of 105 charging stations in New York city – claiming “this means there could soon be three times as many electric-car charging stations in Manhattan as gas stations” – .
Davy on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 8:11 am
Industry pimping.
onlooker on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 8:12 am
How many times are we going to rehash the EV techno babble. It aint happening. Electric is not energy source simply conduit. What about the prodigious FF needed to provide the electricity? Also, distance is a big problem you would have to build a vast network of filling stations to service the EV’s. Also, what about the accessories to driving such a roads, tires, whatever new EV cars are built. Just to keep a form of living and working that is fast becoming obsolete going awhile longer. I am speaking of the Suburbs and of JIT commerce and supply networks and of all the goods that continuously need to be transported. All this requiring a means of transport which in turn requires vast sums of energy by some accounts 70% of oil in the US in used in transport of various kinds. So suddenly we would need much more electricity production than we currently are producing. Where will all that new energy for all that extra electricity come from? Natural Gas you say, well to get at this gas and to distribute it we need Oil and a huge network of pipelines throughout our vast country. I think your getting the picture that we are talking about a humongous undertaking at a time when we are on the downside of peak conventional oil. NOT happening.
sunweb on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 8:25 am
follow the money.
onlooker on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 8:31 am
The way to go is local and sun and wind where possible and as much as possible. That is the only solution and even that does not guarantee that we can support our huge population either on Earth and in the US.
Kenz300 on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 8:51 am
Climate Change is real…. it will impact all of us……we need to move to clean energy production with wind and solar power and clean energy consumption with electric vehicles………
100% electric transportation and 100% solar by 2030
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RBkND76J91k
————
Exxon’s Climate Change Cover-Up Is ‘Unparalleled Evil,’ Says Activist
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/exxon-evil-bill-mckibben_561e7362e4b028dd7ea5f45f?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green§ion=green
PeterEV on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 9:24 am
If we have reached Peak Oil, how are we to get around???? How do the chicken farmers, ranchers, and vegetable growers supposed to get their produce to market? In that regard, Electric Vehicles make sense.
While you (and I) do see this article as pimping, the underlying dynamic is in place as we do not have enough horses and wagons to do the job. I look at more as a sign of where TPTB are thinking of heading us.
One company in Spain, Graphenano, is “pimping” a 1,000km (600 mile) battery. I’m not holding my breath but this is a long long way from lead acid range. Nissan, GM, and Tesla are touting 200 mile range EVs. Between the two ranges, electric pickup trucks and other commercial vehicles, we should be able to gather food from outside major cities and either take them directly into the cities or railroad stations.
Will everybody be driving an EV? I don’t think so but the market and supply will sort that out.
Meanwhile, I see improvements in solar in the cost, conversion efficiencies, and reduced toxic waste. This will eventually take a bite out of fossil fuel usage and keep us from poisoning ourselves.
BTW, the title of this article points to future governmental policy:
http://www.carstoofast.com/after-2025-norway-will-only-allow-new-electric-vehicles/
One thing I don’t see happening are zoning regulations requiring either passive or active solar heat collectors to offset use of fossil fuels to heat water and homes.
Davy on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 9:52 am
Peter, EV’s are a great niche for a future of less but it will likely never scale to fill the gap. We are in an existential catch 22 trap that EV’s are not capable of mitigating. They are part of the solution to delaying the worst but they will never scale in time or significance. Please prove me wrong and I am saying that as a request not sarcastically.
Boat on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 10:04 am
PeterEV,
Thanks for the link. PS we haven’t reached peak oil.
Boat on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 10:11 am
Davy,
Some of us think there is a future past 2030. Many in Norway seem to think the same way.
Apneaman on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 10:17 am
Boat, Dr Guy McPherson thinks apes will be extinct by 2030. You should have a public debate with him.
Picking Cherries, Again
http://guymcpherson.com/2016/03/picking-cherries-again/#comment-172371
Let us know when you guys set a date.
Davy on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 10:21 am
Boat, I am open to either. Unlike you who thinks he knows, I don’t know. Yet, I know everything I have studied In the past several years points to dangers that may not be overcome especially by technologies that are what got us here. The real answers are attitudes but these are also the most difficult to harness. With people like you boat I am not optimistic there can be meaningful change through attitude changes. In other words I am pessimistic because of people like you that ignore reality.
paulo1 on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 10:24 am
Get a golf cart and lose the techno porn designs and I would be more inclined to believe electric cars are serving a higher purpose. Until then, it’s all BAU lite wow with a cheque book.
penury on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 10:44 am
I assume that along side driverless cars,EVs will save the world. People have no income to buy, their credit is maxed out, as long as fossil fuels last liquid fuels will be used. Central banks have maxed out national debts, so when the bottom drops out it is a long way down and no Elon Musk will not save us.
GregT on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 10:47 am
PeterEV,
“Meanwhile, I see improvements in solar in the cost, conversion efficiencies, and reduced toxic waste. This will eventually take a bite out of fossil fuel usage and keep us from poisoning ourselves.”
Taking “a bite” out of fossil fuels usage will not stop us from poisoning ourselves. CO2 is accumulative in the environment. We either stop burning all fossil fuels, or we don’t. At this conjecture, not only do we
need to stop burning all fossil fuels, we would need to sequester CO2 from the environment in order to stop poisoning ourselves. Reduction would do nothing more than buy us some more time, the end result
would be the same.
Solar, wind, and EVs are not the solutions to our biggest predicaments, they are more of the same that got us into this mess to begin with. As paulo1 says above; BAU lite.
bug on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 10:57 am
The rise of electric vehicles is pure horseshit.
Remember the covers of popular science and popular mechanics from the 50’s thru 70’s? All this cool crap we would have?
Where is it? It was as others say “tech porn”. The electric car is a niche.
The only cool thing invented is that 2 stroke outboards went away and we have better four strokes.
Alpha9 on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 11:18 am
Yes, Repubs, please ignore 60% annual growth rate.
SPYX is a great investment for the rest of us.
GregT on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 11:33 am
Boat,
“Some of us think there is a future past 2030. Many in Norway seem to think the same way.”
So the “many in Norway” have some magical powers that allow them to see into the future? More of your mindless non-sense.
I would guess that most everyone here sees a future 14 years from now. What is up for debate, is what that future will look like, and using all pertinent factual information available, that
future is not looking at all overly optimistic. Every single trend is growing exponentially in the wrong direction. Population growth, economics, environmental degradation, resource depletion, food
and water scarcity, and every last single one of our natural support systems are trending negatively at an alarming rate.
You are one of the mindless sheep that is far more a part of the problem, then any possible positive solution.
Apneaman on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 11:41 am
Oh yeah, the EV’s are really having an impact all right.
Record annual increase of carbon dioxide observed at Mauna Loa for 2015
“The annual growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide measured at NOAA’s Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii jumped by 3.05 parts per million during 2015, the largest year-to-year increase in 56 years of research.
In another first, 2015 was the fourth consecutive year that CO2 grew more than 2 ppm, said Pieter Tans, lead scientist of NOAA’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network.
“Carbon dioxide levels are increasing faster than they have in hundreds of thousands of years,” Tans said. “It’s explosive compared to natural processes.”
http://www.noaa.gov/record-annual-increase-carbon-dioxide-observed-mauna-loa-2015
About the same as all the other green washing techno saves…….
SWEET FUCK ALL!
Too late by about 40 years.
Boat on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 12:22 pm
“So the “many in Norway” have some magical powers that allow them to see into the future? More of your mindless non-sense.
I would guess that most everyone here sees a future 14 years from now. What is up for debate, is what that future will look likeӣ
Yes those magical powers see roads with electric cars and trucks going down roads. I am so sorry you lost the power to see.
Legislation like this is awesome to read about. I give Europe a lot of credit for pushing solar when it was still expensive.
The market needs these types of pushes to get product to scale quicker. Thank you Norway for being a leader.
GregT on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 12:42 pm
Those magical powers are every bit as ignorant of reality as you are Boat. More industrialism will not solve the problems caused by industrialism. It will only make those problems worse.
onlooker on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 12:53 pm
Just like more debt will not solve the problems caused by debt in the first place.
John Kintree on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 1:21 pm
I hope that our 2011 Prius is the last car we will ever buy. If it lasts at least another five or six years, self-driving cars may be available. Instead of a personal car, we will call for a ride. A self-driving, one passenger pod may drive itself to our door, and drive itself to its next passenger as soon as I get out. We could replace 250 million vehicles in the United States with 50 million, and possibly enjoy a superior level of mobility, and quality of life in other ways.
Apneaman on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 1:22 pm
Boat, to hell with your damn TOXIC Norwegians.
Norwegians ‘worst’ for dumping electrical waste
“Norwegians threw away more electrical waste per head last year than the citizens of anyone other country in the world, according new UN report.”
http://www.thelocal.no/20150420/norway-worst-in-world-for
Boat on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 2:03 pm
John,
I am onboard with the idea. If the math and reliability work it would be great to give up the car/ truck.
Boat on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 2:10 pm
Lol ape,
Bet ya most higher IQ countries rank high in electrical toxic waste.
Anonymous on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 3:22 pm
Electric mass transit-yes
E-bikes-Sure
E-Electric trains(interurban\cargo)-yes
Electric (mass market) private 2 ton people movers modeled exactly after their gas-counterparts-NO!
Onlooker understands the issue perfectly.
PeterEV on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 3:39 pm
According to Exxon Mobile, we have reached “Peak Oil” production with respect to conventionally drilled oil. Their “2015 Energy Outlook: A view to 2040” has a graph showing that “Conventional” Oil production peaked in 2005. An actual peak in all types of oil production appears in the 2040 to 2050 range.
Ref: http://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/outlook-for-energy/2015-outlook-for-energy_print-resolution.pdf -page 44
Not sure if we can afford it. Other companies have different opinions.
Whether EVs are a niche or something greater is a “forecast” and will depend on a lot of things. Will batteries made of graphene over take LiIon? Will solar cells develop economically viable efficiencies greater than 50%? Will we be able to adapt them to our systems? It’s certain that we can not bred enough horse and mules to replace the number of cars we have today nor can the environment handle all their methane emissions. We could use the natural fertilizer…
The bottom line is that they will be in the mix and will use solar to recharge. used packs maybe used by utilities to even out electricity production. How it all plays outs offers a lot of scenarios and opinions.
Personally, I think there will be a big up take as ranges go above 200 miles per charge and the prices becomes more affordable. You can buy used Leafs for around $10K. Replacement packs are around $6K; making them economically affordable for a lot of people who want to drive electric or try it.
penury on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 3:58 pm
I guess to most the future looks like the recent past, only better toys. Wake up the world of growth no longer exists we are currently into the new favorite word “degrowth”
onlooker on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 4:09 pm
Is “degrowth” a euphemism for contraction or dare I say collapse haha
Apneaman on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 4:27 pm
EV’s are just one more techno industrial product that only middle class entitled people can afford. The marketing people know exactly what dopamine buttons to push on these green wannabe consumers.
Her it is straight from the horses mouth.
How To Control Your Audience With Dopamine
“It all starts with the release of a chemical into the brain called dopamine. Which part of our body’s natural reward system that influences our thoughts and actions more than you realise.
As marketers we use dopamine to manipulate your attention and hijack your reward systems in a cunning plan to separate you from your money.
Don’t think you are too smart to be tricked. It is a biological reaction that you have no control over.
Thinking you can beat it makes you the perfect target.”
http://www.matthewwoodward.co.uk/tips/marketing-dopamine-control/
Bahahaha bahahahaha
GregT on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 7:28 pm
“The bottom line is that they will be in the mix and will use solar to recharge. used packs maybe used by utilities to even out electricity production.”
The bottom line is that our economies, markets, jobs, infrastructure, and food production, are all entirely reliant on an ever expanding amount of affordable fossil fuel energy. Remove that energy from the equation, and economies, markets, jobs, infrastructure, and food production all go into decline. The fact that so many people are more concerned about how they are going to continue to mindlessly drive around the countryside, rather than how they will be able to keep themselves alive, is indicative of how far removed from reality that we have become.
Transportation, communication, air-conditioning, employment, and shopping malls, are soon going to be the least of our concerns.
makati1 on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 8:22 pm
A few of the reasons why electric cars and other techie porn will never happen in more than insignificant amounts:
“FAIL: Ivanpah solar power plant not producing enough electricity, kills lots of birds, may be forced to close”
“In First, Majority of Americans Now Oppose Nuclear Energy”
“The Economic Recovery: A Myth Built Upon a Myth”
“Good Luck Collecting That Pension You’ve Been Expecting”
“Rich countries have a $78 trillion pension problem”
“Economic Collapse: Peter Schiff Delivers Grisly Warning for America”
“Five Years After Fukushima: Does Nuclear Power Have a Future?”
“U.S. Plains wheat belt seen dry through June – meteorologist”
“Beyond Flint: Excessive lead levels found in almost 2,000 water systems across all 50 states”
“Zika seen rivaling measles in birth defect rates” (Mother Nature culling the herd.)
“‘Modern Life Is Not Good for Mental Health'”
“Report: US faces dire consequences if Soo Locks fail”
“82.8% Expect Real Incomes Will Decline in 2016”
“Prescription Painkiller Crisis: Why Do Americans Consume 80 Percent Of All Prescription Painkillers?”
“The climate emergency: time to switch to panic mode?”
“We Are Being Killed On Trade – Rapidly Declining Exports Signal A Death Blow For The U.S. Economy”
All on http://ricefarmer.blogspot.fr/
The real world outside of the Techie Church. Pass the popcorn.
PeterEV on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 9:23 pm
>>…ever expanding amount of affordable fossil fuel energy”<<
Fossil Fuels will be dwindling if not now then shortly. If we are smart, we will husband those fuels and use them to harvest energy from the sun. We are already doing so at an increasing pace. I suspect that in 40 years, there will be a glut of crude oil that would have gone to making gasoline still in the ground.
Not sure how that will effect CO2 release rates but I think they will decline, one way or another.
GregT on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 10:29 pm
“Fossil Fuels will be dwindling if not now then shortly. If we are smart, we will husband those fuels and use them to harvest energy from the sun.”
Absolutely agree with you Peter. The thing is, collectively we aren’t that smart. We will keep using those fossil fuels for industrial processes, to manufacture more crap that will be destined for the landfills within a decade or two, instead of re-learning how to harvest energy from the Sun using natural processes, such as photosynthesis. It really doesn’t matter much at this point whether we release more CO2 into the environment or not. We are already in all likelihood done for as a species. CO2 levels in the environment are not going to decrease for thousands of years, at least. Long after most life on this small planet has been extinguished. By us. The smart apes.
Apneaman on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 10:30 pm
Explaining the energy cliff
“So if you have an energy source that is 90% efficient, running a motor that is 90% efficient, running a generator that is 90% efficient, and distributing electricity through a grid that is 75% efficient, then by the time the energy arrives at its destination, the efficiency of the system is 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.9 x 0.75 = 0.54675 or 54.675% efficient. Three decimal places here is largely irrelevant.
This, by the way, demonstrates that complex systems made up of even very efficient components are not efficient! And this is one of the dilemmas we face as we make our systems ever more complex….. even now.”
https://damnthematrix.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/explaining-the-energy-cliff/
twocats on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 11:16 pm
PeterEV – you do realize that a majority of electricity globally is produced with fossil fuels?
based on which source you trust, modern renewables were only 10 – 13% of global electricity in 2013 (the most recent year with complete data). But it gets worse, most agree that wind and solar only make up about 1.3% of that. The rest is 2.5 – 3.9% hydro and 5 – 10% geothermal and biomass, all of which have limited upside potential for a variety of reasons.
So, as we switch to EVs (and see Apneas talk about efficiency), what’s going to power them all in the next twenty years?
And if you think we have 20 years of fossil fuels left to power that transition / installation of capacity, while also maintaining current usages, then you clearly not aware of the basic facts of the situation.
Davy on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 7:35 am
“complex systems made up of even very efficient components are not efficient! And this is one of the dilemmas we face as we make our systems ever more complex.” Diminishing returns is not something you can solve with more complexity and energy and that is what we are trying to do. The same thing in a different level of abstraction is happening with the financial system. We are trying to use debt to pay for debt and in the process destroying the real. Bad debt is bad debt and should be recognized as such. It will not produce a return. A field planted with corn that does not grow cannot be considered for harvest.
Reality is being deviated from at all levels here to maintain the status quo of confidence and liquidity. This process is destroying our real productive assets and social fabric. Our preoccupation with alternative energy and ev’s is nothing more than the extension of this deviation from reality. There is nothing wrong with EV’s and alternative energy it is the applications and the focus of what they can do and how they are applied. They have a niche and can play and important role in a declining economy and ecosystem. Ideally they would be used to make our vital support systems more robust. Anything related to maintaining our food, water, and shelter at the end user level is what is needed. Instead they are trying to be integrated into the status quo of our ever expanding dive towards more complexity and efficiency that is in a state of denied limits of growth and diminishing returns. The consequences of this is more malinvestment and bad debt. We are going to have stranded assets that could have been put to productive use. There is nothing wrong with the technology but there is everything wrong with our attitudes.
frankthetank on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 8:12 am
BUG-
We still have 2 stroke outboards like ETEC and Optimax but now they are computerized and full of stuff that will probably break over time.
Kenz300 on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 9:36 am
Electric cars, bikes and mass transit are the future…..fossil fuel ICE cars are the past…………..
Think teen agers vs your grand father………………….
cell phones vs land lines…….
Climate Change is real…… utilities need to deal with the cause (fossil fuels)
Exxon’s Climate Change Cover-Up Is ‘Unparalleled Evil,’ Says Activist
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/exxon-evil-bill-mckibben_561e7362e4b028dd7ea5f45f?utm_hp_ref=green&ir=Green§ion=green
penury on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 11:05 am
Davy, the second para of the above is extremely important to understand. As they used to say “You can ignore reality, but that does not mean that reality has ceased to exist.”
Apneaman on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 4:59 pm
Tesla Discontinues 10-Kilowatt-Hour Powerwall Home Battery
“Tesla has quietly removed all references to its 10-kilowatt-hour residential battery from the Powerwall website, as well as the company’s press kit. The company’s smaller battery designed for daily cycling is all that remains.
The change was initially made without explanation, which prompted industry insiders to speculate. Today, a Tesla representative confirmed the 10-kilowatt-hour option has been discontinued.”
https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.wordpress.com/2016/03/19/tesla-discontinues-10-kilowatt-hour-powerwall-home-battery/
Apneaman on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 5:04 pm
Plausible Viability
“there is no renewable energy. It’s a lie.
Sure, you can get free energy as long as the wind blows and the sun shines, but you just can’t get an endless supply of as much as you could ever want. This is true for the very simple reason that renewable energy takes more resources to produce less energy than oil, gas and coal.
You will often hear Americans say electric grid power is 30% of total U.S. energy use, but this is only because they use more energy per capita than nearly everyone else in the world. For the world as a whole, electric grid production is only 20% of total world energy demand.
Devil In The Detail”
https://lokisrevengeblog.wordpress.com/2016/03/21/plausible-viability/
PeterEV on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 7:17 pm
One of the things to think abuts that solar energy also produces heat. While solar PV is around 15% efficiency, solar heat generation is a lot higher with collectors having an efficiency around 95%. One of the big saving that could be derived is from use of passive and active solar systems for heating.
I’m working some numbers that will indicate if I can add active solar to my home. Decreasing my use of grid electricity by 90% would definitely be a game changer for me and for Duke Energy. The side benefit would be a decrease in fossil fuel emissions by a lot…
Lot of people want to head for the hills. I think it might be better to stay put and work with what we know and adjust as circumstances change.
Mark Ziegler on Wed, 23rd Mar 2016 8:33 am
Does anyone think that they will build new nuclear power plants to supply electric cars? How about coal power plants? After shipping out Liquid natural gas to other countries and how much goes to new power plants for electric vehicles leaving how much of the 100 years supply of natural gas that they say we have.
Kenz300 on Wed, 23rd Mar 2016 9:12 am
GM — what is up with trying to throw road blocks into the competition by proposing anti TESLA legislation in states.
Maybe GM should focus on building better vehicles that out perform the competition rather than trying to stifle competition thru anti competitive legislation in states.
Electric vehicles are the future.
Climate Change is real…. it will impact all of us……we need to move to clean energy production with wind and solar power and clean energy consumption with electric vehicles………
Fossil fuels are the cause of Climate Change….. we need to deal with the cause…. GM needs to focus more on building better vehicles and less on slowing the transition to electric vehicles.