The rise and fall of humans

10 Comments on "The rise and fall of humans"

BillT on Sun, 30th Sep 2012 12:07 am 



Just the title says it all. Yes, we are in decline and probably headed for our extinction. My parents lived in the world’s greatest years, the last half of the 20th century. From now on. we will be struggling to survive. Wait and see.

Science sans conscience on Sun, 30th Sep 2012 12:42 am 



In the XVIII century, there were 35 million people in metropolitan France. Today, we are only 63 millions so I can’t believe that even without oil and fertilizer at all, we could face starvation with modern improvements in agricultural techniques and seeds. In the USA, there is so much arable land that this is a joke.

Even Subsaharan Africa would not suffer that much actually [assuming today’s population], since the agriculture is not even mechanized, and yet, can feed everybody most of the time. Only limited areas such as Bangladesh and the Arabian peninsula can expect insoluble upheaval or possibly die-off. So we can not speak of a “fall” for the human population as a whole.

On the other hand, we in the developed world can certainly fear to find mainly only terrible manual jobs like in the early 20th century.

Whoknows on Sun, 30th Sep 2012 2:24 am 



The United States could easily scale down their standing living to Parisian levels. That would mean cutting energy use per capita by multiples. Similarly, the Parisians could further reduce energy use. Single-zone suburbs and highly unsustainable road networks are present in metro Paris.

However, it may be difficult to see such changes in US. Even in the past when US had a more sustainable urban form: European migrants were promised perpetual growth. It’s going to be very difficult to introduce limitations as we saw in Europe. I’d be interesting to see how the population copes with such changes. It’d probably be introduced in the inner cities with significant population displacement following.

I also agree that we should look at real population density (/w arable land). Sub-Saharan Africa will do fine ( just remove the IMF), but nations like Cyprus, Italy, Malta, are in just as much trouble as Egypt and Saudi Arabia. Desertification is going to hit the Mediterranean in general. The Indian subcontinent population isn’t evenly distributed so expect ethnic cleansing to continue. That region and China will see water wars, +3.2 billion will have to share. China is an upstream nation and will probably end up developing infrastructure to restrict flow.

Northern Europe should be stable. US and other English-speaking “new world” nations could be fine. Those extensive suburbs in these nations may just end up resembling Appalachia or rural communities in Mississippi. I guess that’d be considered “fine” over there, though.

MrEnergyCzar on Sun, 30th Sep 2012 3:03 am 



Many people get upset with just the thought of growing a little lettuce in their yard….we’ll fall the hardest in the states…

MrEnergyCzar

BillT on Sun, 30th Sep 2012 4:34 am 



MrEnergy, Whoknows and Science are deniers. They pretend that tech is going to save them and they might just have to give up a few luxuries and everything will be ok. lol

American soil is not good for even growing weeds, and certainly not healthy crops, except those sold by Monsanto along with the tons of petro chemicals necessary to keep them alive. We do not have 2 foot of rich top soil all over the country like we had when I was a kid in the 40s and 50s. It is all gone. killed by the same Monsanto chemicals.

Europe cannot feed their millions either. Same reasons. Ditto, most current producing countries. Droughts and lack of water will limit the amount of food grown anywhere. Africa? Nope!
South America? Maybe, but they too depend on chemicals and petro farming.

Dream on people, but billions will die off in the coming few decades, and many of them will be in so called 1st world countries. The Us will NOT be exempt and may actually suffer the worst as we have no farmers left and no fertile land to farm.

Arthur on Sun, 30th Sep 2012 9:36 am 



Yes Bill, that is how I comfort my mother of 85 who is now on the final straight, so to speak, by saying that she lived in the best of times and that from now on it will all go down, which she accepts as truth. In fact she hated these stinking, noisy cars all her life and the destruction these vehicles caused to the landscape. She was a fan of the Club of Rome from day 1. The worst she experienced was the winter of 1944-45 in German occupied Amsterdam: no electricity, no heating, no food, except some potatoes acquired from family in the rural saxon part of the Netherlands after a hazardous trip of 120 km over frozen roads by bike with wooden tyres or a few tulip bulbs. My grandfather was famous for saying: “we will still eat these tulip bulbs after the war!” They did not.

dorlomin on Sun, 30th Sep 2012 1:52 pm 



The rise in global population co-incided with the development of sewars, antibiotics, sterelised medical equipment, pesticides and other things like that. It is not about the amount of oil that was found. Oil plays a part but we can cope with a great deal less oil than we currently use. India is pretty much self sufficient in food but uses a fraction of the oil of other societies. Clearly they will have water issues but it shows that it only takes a fraction of the current oil consumption to keep a big population alive.

Whoknows on Sun, 30th Sep 2012 3:26 pm 



BillT, as I said before, we’re going to be seeing steep decline. The difference in our opinion is how it’ll occur. I also think that humans are quite versatile and many will manage. This doesn’t mean that I don’t think that losses won’t be occurred. We’re probably going to see intensified ethnic cleansing ( has never ended and still commencing) and more wars will likely break out. I guess I should detail the developments that I think may follow.

The most obvious disaster will be in China and the Indian subcontinent. Why? Well, you have over 3 billion people sharing water. China is going to build infrastructure to control water. I can see water wars following and millions over there dying. The fact that nuclear weapons is quite accessible, not to mention terrorist movements who may have access to nukes, I’m thinking huge disaster.

As for United States and their new world cousins Australia, Canada, and New Zealand, they can potentially survive, but may not. The big issues in these states is their sprawling human complex. The way of life which is, living materially better off than everyone else, was promised to European serfs, and won’t be delivered. I think balkanization, much that of the Roman empire, is very possible. However, opportunities exist in water-rich corridors. The Great Lake areas, the Marling Darling basin, etc. I don’t think Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Phoenix, Sydney, and similar sprawling/ water-poor cities have much of a future.

Nations in the Arabian Peninsula, Saharan/ Nile states, Southern Europe and West Asia are done. Lack of water and rapid desertification is going to drive down the population. The Sahara is a young desert and it’s expanding North and South. Roughly 400 million are living in the water-poor parts of Africa (includes Nigeria) and a rather significant number will perish.

However there are parts in milder parts of Africa ( think South Africa, etc) that will be rather resilient. Northern Europe is already quite stressed, but I think the milder climate will allow it to survive. The problem is going to be extremity of desertification as the Sahara expands will into Europe.

Whoknows on Sun, 30th Sep 2012 3:51 pm 



Dorlomin, all those technologies you mentioned followed the advent of the fossil fuel age. Pesticides, pharmaceutical and increased mechanization is dependent on cheap energy. It can be noted that their oil footprint is much smaller than the automobile which really needs to disappear.

As for India being self-sufficient: I am not so sure about that. Look at their current fossil use in comparison to their GDP output. Canada has a larger GDP than India despite consuming significantly less fossil fuel. India is far from equitable ( especially vs Canada) and will need high growth to remain stable. The metropolitan areas of India are starting to resemble an American arrangement that is dependent on cheap energy.

I don’t think it’ll be possible for Indians to scale up towards Canadian levels. It’s quite likely that Canada will see huge declines as demand destruction continues. India will have to improve standard of living with very tight energy supplies. However water is going to become a severe issue. That nation is going to dealing with China who also will be vying for the minimal resources.

3 billion in China-Indian subcontinent isn’t viable. I think the massive population growth in Bangladesh and Pakistan is going to place a lot of pressure in the general region.

Newfie on Mon, 1st Oct 2012 1:00 am 



Oil production is now peaking. The mere plateauing of oil production is sending industrial civilization over the cliff. Greece and Spain are in a depression. Social unrest is erupting. Italy will be next. The US economy is stagnant. Only massive printing of money by the US Fed is preventing America from plunging into a severe recession. Once oil production goes into terminal decline the petro-apocalypse will unfold rapidly. And it will be too late then. God help us all.