Peak Oil is You
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Page added on April 12, 2020
The Reality Of The End Of Oil
The Oil Age has powered the world for well over a century. There have been two general schools of thought about how it will ultimately end.
There were those who believed that oil production would peak and begin to decline in the face of high global demand. This is essentially the peak oil argument, which many laymen mistakenly understand as “The world is running out of oil.”
In reality, the argument wasn’t that the world was going to run out of oil, it was that oil production would begin a long decline and cause havoc in a world that is still highly dependent upon oil.
This version of the end of oil became very popular just before the shale oil boom. The idea was neatly summarized in 2005 when the late Matt Simmons published Twilight in the Desert, in which he argued that oil production in Saudi Arabia was nearing terminal decline.
In this version, there is no easy replacement for oil, so oil prices skyrocket above $100 a barrel (bbl) as people seek to maintain mobility. In fact, for a while it looked like this version might play out.
But growing shale oil production largely burst that bubble in 2014, when it became clear that there was still a lot of oil to be produced.
Fast forward a few years, and a new version of the end of oil began to take hold. In this version, exponential increases in electric vehicles (EVs) and ride-sharing are predicted to be two key factors that will make oil obsolete.
In this version, oil prices plunge as demand starts to fall. This is the exact opposite of the peak oil argument, where oil prices surge as supply starts to fall.
As Michael Liebreich, the founder and senior contributor of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, recently put it on Twitter: “I’ve always said the end-game for oil is not when it reaches $200/barrel, it’s when it settles at $20/barrel.”
I felt like it would be likely that we would see some combination: A period of shortages and high prices, but ultimately a peak in demand that would lead to lower prices. I wrote an article nearly three years ago outlining that view. However, I felt like that point was probably a decade away. And it would be highly dependent on whether U.S. shale oil production continued to grow.
One thing the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has done is to collapse oil demand, and subsequently prices. The world still needs oil during this crisis, but what we are seeing today is exactly what I think we would see in the peak demand scenario.
In that case, we will see the need for a much smaller oil industry. And that is likely where we are headed now, with oil prices in the $20s, and the timing of a recovery still uncertain.
I believe what we saw in the 2005-2014 time frame was a preview of the peak oil scenario. Oil company revenues were skyrocketing during this period, and energy stocks were one of the best-performing sectors.
But today, we are seeing a preview of the peak demand scenario. That outcome is very different. In this scenario, only the strongest oil companies survive, and the sector becomes one most investors would rather avoid.
Are we there yet? I don’t think so, but it is hard to say what the lingering impact on oil demand will be from the coronavirus pandemic. When oil demand dropped during the 2008-2009 financial crisis, it bounced back strongly in 2010. I am not so sure that’s going to happen this time. This pandemic seems destined to change our world in a number of ways, and some of those ways involve lower oil demand.
If that transition starts to happen in earnest, then the peak demand scenario that I thought we would see in maybe 2030 will be here a lot sooner than that.
137 Comments on "The Reality Of The End Of Oil"
makati1 on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 3:42 am
This virus has cut demand by 30% or more, and that is what will end oil, not growing demand. I have often stated that, when the age of petroleum ends, there will still be many billions of barrels left in the ground because it will not be profitable to recover and/or the energy to recover/refine/sell it will be less than the energy it contains. We are fast approaching both scenarios. About time! Screw the Stock Market Casino and the leeches who live there.
“This pandemic seems destined to change our world in a number of ways, and some of those ways involve lower oil demand.”
The world has just learned, or is in the process of learning, that it doesn’t need so much oily waste. Nor do people need all the junk they used to. The Greatest Depression is going to make millions, maybe billions into preppers.
If you think the world is going back to BAU after this is over, you need to rethink your idea. The US/EU/etc cannot print the way out this time, although they will try. The rest of this decades is going to be very “interesting”. Buckle up!
Mick on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 3:59 am
I agree with you mak 100% we in the early stages of collapse and buckle up it going to be a rough ride down to the 1800s
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 5:11 am
Put solar panels on a truck and harvest 5,000 km/year as a bonus (20 km/working day):
https://cleantechnica.com/2020/04/11/fraunhofer-ise-testing-vehicle-integrated-solar-systems/
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 5:40 am
Another Anglo oil article by an ASPO member (? – does ASPO still exist?) where the concept “renewable energy” isn’t mentioned once, only “electric vehicles”.
https://oilprice.com/contributors/Robert-Rapier
https://www.codot.gov/projects/contextsensitivesolutions/docs/pdfs/rapier-robert-aspousa2008.pdf
Dear mr Napier, in 2019, renewable electricity constituted world-wide ca. 70% of all new installed power-generation capacity. Renewable energy has already won. Oil & gas is a rear-guard fight. Corona will not only push 81-year old’s into the grave, but the oil industry as well.
/end-of-message
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 5:49 am
The ink of my previous post hasn’t dried yet and already I stumble on an article that proves my point (“corona killing fossil”):
https://www.wattisduurzaam.nl/25188/energie-beleid/wiebes-mikt-met-9-eu-collegas-op-duurzaam-herstel-na-covid-19/
Oostenrijk, Denemarken, Finland, Frankrijk, Italië, Letland, Luxemburg, Portugal, Spanje, Zweden en Nederland pleiten ervoor dat herstelmaatregelen i.v.m. de coronacrisis zoveel mogelijk in lijn liggen met voorgenomen klimaatbeleid.
Said countries want to exploit the corona crisis to create extra impetus for the renewable energy transition. Message from 9 EU countries: don’t go back to BAU but press ahead with the transition.
#NeverWasteAGoodCrisis
P.S.: tip, sell your shares in airlines industries while you still can.
P.S.2: corona whodunnit?
– sloppy China (Kung Flu)
– evil US globalists with long noses (CIA Cough)
– Wuhan Wet Market Suplise
Now add a fourth suspect: Paris Accord signatories, worrying about the fate of the planet, throwing a monkey wrench into the works of unleashed capitalism.
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 6:04 am
Here the European letter of intent in English:
https://www.climatechangenews.com/2020/04/09/european-green-deal-must-central-resilient-recovery-covid-19/
“European Green Deal must be central to a resilient recovery after Covid-19”
Nostrodamus on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 6:05 am
The end is near. The liquid farts are coming to a town near you soon…
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 6:44 am
End-of-oil latest:
I think that today, Easter Monday, could be the first day where the Netherlands is producing 100% renewable electricity (thanks to corona and Easter, plus a lot of wind and sun):
https://www.energieopwek.nl
Renewable electricity 13:30 – 8.24 GW
Total Dutch electricity production from all sources:
https://www.tennet.eu/nl/elektriciteitsmarkt/data-dashboard/productie/
8.31 GW (highest production)
Davy on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 6:57 am
“This Is Where The World Is On The “Corona Curve” At This Moment: An Update”
https://tinyurl.com/uowkghj zero hedge
“The bottom line, and somewhat counterintuitively, the sooner the world declares victory against the Wu Flu, the faster the general population will rush back into “social un-distancing”, sparking new case clusters as the infection restarts from scratch, forcing authorities to re-establish social distancing once again, and so on, as the entire process repeats from square one. Which brings us to the latest assessment made from Minneapolis Fed chief and former Goldman and PIMCO staffer, Neel Kashkari who has somehow also emerged as a budding epidemiologist and who today warned that without an effective therapy or a vaccine for the novel coronavirus, the US economy could face 18 months of “rolling shutdowns” as the outbreak recedes and flares up again. “We’re looking around the world. As they relax the economic controls, the virus flares back up again,” the 2020 FOMC voter Kashkari said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.” Kashkari “We could have these waves of flareups, controls, flareups and controls until we actually get a therapy or a vaccine. I think we should all be focusing on an 18-month strategy for our health care system and our economy.” Kashkari warned that “this could be a long hard road that we have ahead of us until we get either to an effective therapy or a vaccine. It’s hard for me to see a V-shaped recovery under that scenario,” he said.”
Davy on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 6:58 am
A possibility of a pseudo normality in regards to health is likely 2 years off meaning there will be no overall normality because that time period of virus waving altered activity means the economy has now been disrupted beyond recognition. This economic dislocation will mean new problems both health and general are assured. This condition calls for bold action on painful policies of degrowth allowing an economic drop to land on a stable foundation instead of the disruptive successive stair steps caused by failed status quo efforts. This then calls for a wartime like response of actions with focus on food and logistics with triage occurring with non-essential industries. Retirement and playtime for the privileged is over. The sooner these painful steps are taken the better. The sooner global agreement is made on common efforts the better. This is a two-year period of economic depression and adapted health responses.
Currently we are in the honeymoon phase of common cause of people fighting the virus in adversity of lockdown but this will be a peak of human cooperation. As the economic situation deteriorates day by day cascading consequences and emotional breaking points means we are entering a period of social disruption. Dealing with this will be important as is the health and economic response. So, we have successive waves of trauma on multiple fronts. Don’t forget the usual natural disasters ahead that likely will not have the resources to be cleaned up like in the past. This is the end of the world as we know it but it also might be the beginning of a new world with more stability than the last. This said I doubt a degrowthing modern world can ever be truly stable so expect more stresses further ahead even if we solve these immediate problems. Techno optimism and sustainable development allowing increasing populations with increasing comforts are likely gone. This also means localized collapse or worse in places that can’t adapt. It hopefully will not mean wars because if that is added to this list the decline will be far worse.
Davy on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 7:22 am
“One Bank Explains Why No V-Shaped Recovery Is Coming, And Why The Fed Will Nationalize Everything”
https://tinyurl.com/rpshgnm zero hedge
“In addition, in our view, V-shaped optimists have forgotten a basic lesson of the business cycle. Recessions can be triggered by a variety of shocks-surging oil prices, central bank inflation fighting popping bubbles and now a health crisis-but the recession continues well after the initial shock fades. This is because the drop in activity triggers a nasty feedback loop in the economy that overwhelms the policy easing. A two- or three-month shutdown will leave lasting scars on confidence. Economies will re-open to a greatly diminished demand environment, with high saving rates and very low discretionary spending. This argues for a U-shaped recovery and a persistent, large output gap, in our view. If this view is correct, and if the world is indeed stuck in the mire of economic contraction not for a quarter or two, but years, it means that what the Fed has done so far will be insufficient and the next step before Powell & Co., will be to expand its nationalization of capital markets by taking full control of the yield curve – to avoid the crossover point beyond which yields on the long-end of the curve soar…Effectively, yield curve control in a depressionary world would eliminate one of the two core market-moving drivers of risk prices – market-driven inflation/interest rates – and only leave corporate profits as an indicator of how the economy is doing. However, since the Fed has with its alphabet soup of measures disconnected risk asset prices from corporate fundamentals, i.e., profits and cash flow, by directly purchasing corporate bonds and soon stocks, it is only a matter of time before US capital markets get to a point where no economic or fundemental signals are reflected in risk assets, resulting in a “market” that is if not nationalized, then centrally-planned”
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 7:41 am
“Dutch to Issue Offshore Wind Tender”
https://www.offshorewind.biz/2020/04/13/dutch-to-issue-offshore-wind-tender/
While the construction of the 1.5 GW Borssele offshore wind park is well underway (as I verified personally last month, observing the progress from the North Sea sea-dike in West-Kapelle, Zeeland), preparations are being made for the tender of the 6.1 GW “IJmuiden Ver” offshore wind park…
https://d2z1a14d3feyr7.cloudfront.net/app/uploads/2019/05/15105405/Kaart_windopzee_final.jpg
..to be completed before 2030. Together with the existing solar, onshore wind and biomass, it would mean that the transition towards renewable electricity would have been completed. Between 2030-2050, a doubling of that amount would be required to replace all primary energy with renewable electricity, in combination with seasonal storage of heat, heat pumps, etc.
“Dutch Government Reveals 11.5GW by 2030 Offshore Wind Roadmap”
https://www.offshorewind.biz/2018/03/27/dutch-government-reveals-11-5gw-by-2030-offshore-wind-roadmap/
11.5 GW offshore means ca. 6 GW continuously. The Netherlands uses 13 GW 24/7/365. That amount would be approached with onshore wind and solar and biomass.
DT on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 8:28 am
The only true renewable energy for humans is a forest large enough that the wood can be harvested over countless generations, meaning thousands of acres per person. The other is pastures in large enough areas so that they are not overgrazed.Meaning that the amount of live stock must be limited. So far in this modern world humans have failed at both due to over population. Any other industrial use of the word renewable when it comes to harnessing the power of energy is FF based and obviously not renewable.
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 8:54 am
“Any other industrial use of the word renewable when it comes to harnessing the power of energy is FF based and obviously not renewable.”
The usual American layman majority opinion, correctly ignored in Europe and China.
For starters, it is possible to produce fossil fuel from renewable electricity, just in case. Alternatively you can produce hydrogen from renewable electricity and achieve the same temperatures as with burning natural gas.
Furthermore, it is possible to create a new wind tower from an old one, using wind electricity in a scrap metal electric arc furnace.
https://phys.org/news/2018-05-percent-energy-renewable-sources.html
“Can we get 100 percent of our energy from renewable sources?”
Spoiler Europeans answer: yes.
It is easy to find Anglo sources who claim you can’t. Real reason: Anglos are very much attached to fossil fuel, because instinctively they know that the British 19th century and American 20th century were based on fossil fuel. And everybody wants a 2nd century (the British –> WW1; Americans –> Iraq).
It is difficult for Anglos to accept that there is another source of energy, that could replace the Anglo fossil success formula.
/shrug
Davy on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 9:07 am
“The usual American layman majority opinion, correctly ignored in Europe and China.”
Bullshit, you mean in the cloggo’s fantasy it is ignored. Don’t speak for nations at levels you are clueless about.
“Can we get 100 percent of our energy from renewable sources?” “Spoiler Europeans answer: yes.”
OH, yea, when we decline to a level we saw in the early 20th century we can get closer to 100% renewable which will include animal power and much more human
“For starters, it is possible to produce fossil fuel from renewable electricity, just in case.’
OH, sure, and make gold and diamonds too.
Davy on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 9:08 am
/shrug /shrug
Duncan Idaho on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 9:21 am
If govt can print money then why collect taxes ?
Duncan Idaho on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 9:24 am
Hint:
We are not a peak oil.
That happened in Nov of 2018.
It is in the rear view mirror.
Davy on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 9:55 am
Did we mention that we are spending less time on this lame unmoderated forum to concentrate on are own lame blog?
We think we might of..
Duncan Idaho on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 9:56 am
Trump and his ‘freak show in Washington’ are ‘moving literally to destroy the country and the world’
https://www.alternet.org/2020/04/were-in-deep-trouble-noam-chomsky-explains-how-trump-and-his-freak-show-in-washington-are-moving-literally-to-destroy-the-country-and-the-world/
Makati1 on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 10:30 am
if nobody is around to hear your liquid fart does it matter when your shorts fill rapidly?
These are the existential questions we must all face as the corvid20 causes our energy to be lost rapidly.
🙁
JuanP on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 10:32 am
Did we mention that we are spending less time on this lame unmoderated forum to concentrate on being mindless and stupid. I have tried to comment on the moderated side but everyone knows I am a blowhard and only their to brag on myself. Stupid me. crazy me.
We think we might of..
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 10:33 am
I like it when heebs like Noam Chomsky are depressed. It means that they realize that their 20th century Global-Zion enterprise is about to go broke and that they are willing to openly admit it.
Partner-in-crime Paul Krugman has done so earlier:
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2019/01/07/the-good-news-zog-is-dying/
JuanP on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 10:33 am
you have might notice I used there rong. Did i brag to you ever that I dropped out of school?
Heinrich Himmler III on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 10:34 am
I blame the international jew, they must be thrown down the wells immediately.
So our country can be free.
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 10:37 am
If govt can print money then why collect taxes ?
That was the pre-euro Italian approach.
The result is 10% inflation per year and absolutely nobody is interested in your currency.
It is like riding a bicycle with a leaking tire. Every few miles you have to step down and pump the tire up again. Very tire-some (pun-intended).
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 10:48 am
Orsted-Denmark and ITM-UK working on a wind turbine that produces hydrogen, to be tapped from the bottom of the tower.
https://www.offshorewind.biz/2020/04/13/orsted-and-itm-power-explore-different-approach-to-integrating-offshore-wind-and-hydrogen/
“Ørsted and ITM Power Explore Different Approach to Integrating Offshore Wind and Hydrogen”
(Counter-intuitive) rationale: it is cheaper to pump hydrogen through an undersea network of pipes than through wires as electricity.
Heinrich Himmler IV on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 10:58 am
I blame the jew juanPee, he should be thrown down the wells immediately or castrated
So our world can be free of skum.
Heinrich Himmler IV on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 11:19 am
I blame the jew demented davy. He should be thrown down the outhouse immediately or be castrated.
So our world can be free of davyskum.
REAL Green on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 11:20 am
Can we bring Pink Poodle out to play Davy?
It makes us feel more REAL Manly.
Theedrich on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 11:21 am
America is today nothing more than an economy. The sense of folk, of common blood bond, of culture, of any purpose beyond acquisition and self-aggrandizement, is long gone. Instead, we have unrelenting appeals to contribute to various political and religious causes, to “do good” (as defined by politically correct, anti-White do-gooders), narcotics to stupefy the brain, and schmaltz diverting the masses from their boredom.
Now that the economy is going, going, gone, America is also facing demise, pace the Pentagonians and politicians. Nothing remains except hatred for Whites and the civilization that their forbears created. The leering mulatto is glorified as the end goal of evolution — all 3.5 billion years of it.
How ironic that the name of the genre of bat that is causing the collapse is “horseshoe.” A short way of saying that “what goes around, comes around.”
JuanP on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 11:48 am
Can we bring Pink Poodle out to play juanPee?
It makes us feel more REAL mindless and stupid. I am afraid to be on the moderated side because of how stupid I can be so I stay over here and troll.
SocialRevolutionComing on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 11:49 am
Smithfield Foods warns of U.S. meat supply disruption as it closes plant
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/apr/12/smithfield-foods-plant-closure-sparks-fear-food-su/
This COVID hoax was not the right to slow down oil consumption.
It is instead crashing the whole world wide supply chain.
Supply chain collapse. social chaos, electrical grid collapse, end of human race.
Heinrich Himmler IV on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 11:49 am
throw the jew, juanPee, in the well, please. I am so tired of his mindless stupid shit.
SocialRevolutionComing on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 11:50 am
juanpee is a jew and mindless. Lets do worse than the well. Please castrate him first.
REAL Green on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 11:59 am
Thanks fer bringin Pink Poodle out to play Davy. It shows everyone hear how smart we think we are.
JuanP on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 12:29 pm
I am not very briite but maybe if I was than I wood notice wen I troll the pink poodle comes out
REAL Green on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 12:41 pm
“I am not very briite”
So true Davy. So true.
thunderf00t on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 12:54 pm
the jig is up fulks when whitey supertard supremacist “thunderf00t” imposed self quarantine we know it smellz.
the love of supremacist muzzies know no bound and the use of high english is sky high
supertard theedirch is smartest commenter, his high english is vary difficult to undertand
stick to high english guyes, please dont’ ruin low enlish by encorporating muzzie love into it
JuanP on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 1:10 pm
My tatwoo hat I carry with me is the pink poodle. juanPee will from this day forward be know as the pink poodle troll skumbag.
Duncan Idaho on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 1:14 pm
“Who knew the man who withdrew U.S. troops from northern Syria (precipitating atrocities against allies) and abandoned American hurricane victims in Puerto Rico would have no plan for fighting a deadly pandemic?”
DT on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 4:12 pm
“Wind turbines that produce hydrogen” The article you quote says it all, “Such a system has not been demonstrated in practice”. More industrial “renewable energy” claptrap.
Duncan Idaho on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 4:49 pm
“A longstanding anti-human, anti-science, anti-democratic, individualistic, racist and xenophobic narrative is clashing with the reality of a pandemic that can only be overcome by humanity, science, equity, collective effort, and trust in the democratic institutions that are coordinating and delivering health services and economic relief.”
While the Fat Boy is providing those first items—–
makati1 on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 5:50 pm
Since my first, and ONLY post on this article, the children have come out to play in their PO backyard. So bored with life that they have to prove their ignorance and immaturity by posting crap for hours at a time.
A few relevant, intelligent posts, from the adults (Duncan, Theedrich, etc.), but the rest? Crap! Cut and paste word salads by the Missouri Jackass. Techie drug dreams from the Nederlands. God knows where and who the others are, IF they are real. Each living in their lonely little imagined world, hoping for a better one ahead.
Buckle up bitches! Very rough road ahead! Then the cliff!
makati1 on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 5:53 pm
BTW: Before the deluded M.J. adds his worthless putdowns, I am NOT expecting a better world ahead. I’m expecting it to only get worse as time passes. I’m prepared for that materially and mentally. I only hope to live to see it all unfold. Maybe 10-15 years? We shall see. Have a great day!
SocialRevolutionComing on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 6:55 pm
Mak, this whole world is getting more and more depressing. I think 98% of the Whites people suffer from mental illness.
I was leaving some comments on youtube about what was happening in Quebec in my concern about the supply chain. You should see the number of insults I received. There is no hope. When modernity collapses (electrical grid, supply chain) nothing will ever by rebuilt in Whites Western nations. There are too many mentally ill people in Whites nations. You cannot build anything with these kind of people.
The vast majority of Whites Canadians are illiterate.
DT on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 7:18 pm
Mak, Hmmm and here I thought this was a peak oil forum………silly me.
makati1 on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 7:19 pm
SRC, I agree. I see my grand kids education and weep. I had run-ins with the school principles over my kid’s education in the 80s. It only got worse. The proof is everywhere.
There will not be anyone to fix what they have now, when it goes down. Laborers are all people of color, not white. Whites want to sit at a desk and get a six figure income, with bennies, for doing practically nothing.
Yes, I am white and of American birth, but I am not proud of it. The educations system was still a good one in my youth, the 50s and 60s, pre union. The teachers were teachers because that is what they wanted to do in life and were proud of it, not the paycheck and ‘summers off’ grifters of today. Sigh!
Davy on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 7:23 pm
“A few relevant, intelligent posts, from the adults (Duncan, Theedrich, etc.), but the rest? Crap! Cut and paste word salads by the Missouri Jackass.”
you mean the adults with diapers and who droll all over the key board. LMFAO. I think that is what is so disgusting about you makato-one is how special you think you are. It makes it more enjoyable to see you suffer the embarrassment of being wrong so much.
Davy on Mon, 13th Apr 2020 7:24 pm
“SRC, I agree.”
dumbass, SRC is your lunatic friend juanpee. Situational unaware makato-one