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Page added on May 18, 2016
The Real Economy Is Already In Recession
You are about to see a chart that is undeniable evidence that we have already entered a major economic slowdown.
In the “real economy”, stuff is bought and sold and shipped around the country by trucks, railroads and planes. When more stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is growing, and when less stuff is being bought and sold and shipped around the country, the “real economy” is shrinking.
I know that might sound really basic, but I want everyone to be on the same page as we proceed in this article.
Just because stock prices are artificially high right now does not mean that the U.S. economy is in good shape. In fact, there was a stock rally at this exact time of the year in 2008 even though the underlying economic fundamentals were rapidly deteriorating. We all remember what happened later that year, so we should not exactly be rejoicing that precisely the same pattern that we witnessed in 2008 is happening again right in front of our eyes.
During the month of April, the Cass Transportation Index was down 4.9 percent on a year over year basis. What this means is that a lot less stuff was bought and sold and shipped around the country in April 2016 when compared to April 2015. The following comes from Wolf Richter…
Freight shipments by truck and rail in the US fell 4.9% in April from the beaten-down levels of April 2015, according to the Cass Transportation Index, released on Friday. It was the worst April since 2010, which followed the worst March since 2010. In fact, shipment volume over the four months this year was the worst since 2010.
This is no longer statistical “noise” that can easily be brushed off.
Of course this was not just a one month fluke. The reality is that we have now seen the Cass Shipping Index decline on a year over year basis for 14 consecutive months. Here is more commentary and a chart from Wolf Richter…
The Cass Freight Index is not seasonally adjusted. Hence the strong seasonal patterns in the chart. Note the beaten-down first four months of 2016 (red line):
This is undeniable evidence that the “real economy” has been slowing down for more than a year. In 2007-2008 we saw a similar thing happen, but the Federal Reserve and most of the “experts” boldly assured us that there was not going to be a recession.
Of course then we immediately proceeded to plunge into the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
Traditionally, railroad activity has been a key indicator of where the U.S. economy is heading next. Just a few days ago, I wrote about how U.S. rail traffic was down more than 11 percent from a year ago during the month of April, and I included a photo that showed 292 Union Pacific engines sitting in the middle of the Arizona desert doing absolutely nothing.
Well, just yesterday one of my readers sent me a photograph of a news article from North Dakota about how a similar thing is happening up there. Hundreds of rail workers are being laid off, and engines are just sitting idle on the tracks because there is literally nothing for them to do…
Intuitively, does it seem like this should be happening in a “healthy” economy?
Of course not.
The reason why this is happening is because businesses have been selling less stuff. Total business sales have now been declining for almost two years, and they are now close to 15 percent lower than they were in late 2014.
Because sales are way down, unsold inventories are really starting to pile up. The inventory to sales ratio is now close to the level it was at during the worst moments of the last recession, and many analysts expect it to continue to keep going up.
Why can’t people understand what is happening? So far this year, job cut announcements are up 24 percent and the number of commercial bankruptcies is shooting through the roof. Signs that we are in the early chapters of a new economic downturn are all around us, and yet denial is everywhere.
For instance, just consider this excerpt from a CNBC article entitled “This key recession signal is broken“…
Treasury yields are behaving as if they are signaling a recession, but strategists say this time it’s more likely a sign of something else.
The market has been buzzing about the flattening yield curve, or the fact that yields on longer duration Treasurys are getting closer to yields on shorter duration securities.
In the case of 10-year notes and two-year notes, that spread was the flattest Friday than it has been on a closing basis since late 2007. The yield curve had turned negative in 2006 and stayed there for months in 2007 before turning higher ahead of the Great Recession. The spread was at 95 at Friday’s curve but widened Monday to more than 96.
Treasury yields are very, very clearly telling us that a new recession is here, but because the “experts” don’t want to believe it they are telling us that the signal is “broken”.
For many Americans, all that seems to matter is that the stock market has recovered from the horrible crashes last August and earlier this year. But in the end, I am convinced that those crashes will simply be regarded as “foreshocks” of a much greater crash in our not too distant future.
But if you don’t want to believe me, perhaps you will listen to Goldman Sachs. They just came out with six reasons why stocks are about to tumble.
Or perhaps you will believe Bank of America. They just came out with nine reasons why a big stock market decline is on the horizon.
To me, one of the big developments has been the fact that stock buybacks are really starting to dry up. In fact, announced stock buybacks have declined 38 percent so far this year…
After snapping up trillions of dollars of their own stock in a five-year shopping binge that dwarfed every other buyer, U.S. companies from Apple Inc. to IBM Corp. just put on the brakes. Announced repurchases dropped 38 percent to $244 billion in the last four months, the biggest decline since 2009, data compiled by Birinyi Associates and Bloomberg show. “If the only meaningful source of demand in the market is companies buying their own shares back, then what happens if that goes away?” asked Brad McMillan, CIO of Commonwealth “We should be concerned.”
Stock buybacks have been one of the key factors keeping stock prices at artificially inflated levels even though underlying economic conditions have been deteriorating. Now that stock buybacks are drying up, it is going to be difficult for stocks to stay disconnected from economic reality.
A lot of people have been asking me recently when the next crisis is going to arrive.
I always tell them that it is already here.
Just like in early 2008, economic conditions are rapidly deteriorating, but the stock market has not gotten the memo quite yet.
And just like in 2008, when the financial markets do finally start catching up with reality it will likely happen very quickly.
So don’t take your eyes off of the deteriorating economic fundamentals, because it is inevitable that the financial markets will follow eventually.
59 Comments on "The Real Economy Is Already In Recession"
Davy on Wed, 18th May 2016 7:07 am
Damn, beat me to the punch. A great must read post.
SugarSeam on Wed, 18th May 2016 7:36 am
Drebbin: “Alright! Nothing to see here!! Please! Disperse!!”[youtube]5NNOrp_83RU[/youtube]
makati1 on Wed, 18th May 2016 7:44 am
Recession? Nope. Depression, and it started in 2001.
Go Speed Racer on Wed, 18th May 2016 7:57 am
We can use the 292 engines for a desert fight scene. The really bad guys in dune buggies come up along side the 292 locomotives going about 40 mph and start shooting and the not so bad guys shoot back. Th really bad guys get onto the surplus locomotives and start fighting the not so bad guys rooftop to rooftop. One of them almost gets dragged under so they jump up and down on his knuckles and he gets sucked under a wheel and chopped in half. But the bridge is out and our not so bad guys jump off just in time. The 292 locomotives go sailing into the abyss and pile up in the valley below. Our not so bad guys find some snakes and rats. to cook for dinner over a wood fire. They have some BBQ sauce left over from before the apocalypse.
marmico on Wed, 18th May 2016 8:10 am
More doom porn for innumerates.
Through March, the ATA trucking tonnage index is up 3.9% year on year.
http://www.trucking.org/article.aspx?uid=41f688ea-9e41-4097-946e-25599ccebb72
Of course, the railroads are getting hammered with the decline in coal and oil railcar loadings while intermodal loadings look okay.
https://www.aar.org/pages/freight-rail-traffic-data.aspx
PracticalMaina on Wed, 18th May 2016 8:15 am
Yeah things are great, fireproof them trains and maybe we can get more dirty oil sands flowing! Then we just need fireproof workers.
PracticalMaina on Wed, 18th May 2016 8:20 am
Or a much better approach, add a modest oil use tax so that those trains, which are far more efficient freight haulers than diesel trucks, are once again economical to run.
Outcast_Searcher on Wed, 18th May 2016 10:46 am
Except that this definition of “real” economy is increasingly artificial as we transform more and more to an information economy.
All the software that increasingly makes our devices smart, the entire internet and all the commerce that occurs over that, and all the digital products (like music, books, software fixes for our cars) are not shipped around on trucks, but over the internet.
And notice — that is one of the primary reasons first world economies continue to become much LESS energy intensive over time.
But of course, if the mantra that we are in a recession hasn’t worked since spring of 2009 doesn’t work in the real world, then make up increasingly bogus definitions of the economy until you find one that will work, and crow how you’ve proven the news is bad.
How much money have the perpetual doomsayers lost (through actual losses and lost opportunity cost)?
In a market economy, there are periods of growth and recession. We will likely enter another recession within a few years, or at least a decade.
Why not just wait to crow about that when it happens, and at least have some credibility?
Davy on Wed, 18th May 2016 10:57 am
Wow, another decade maybe of growth before a recession says outcast searcher. He also talks the usual Information Age magic talk. Outcast have you ever heard of the concept of limits and diminishing returns? They apply to technology as well as efficiency. It is our self deception that keeps us from embracing the reality of decline and decay. Technology and its wonders are a elixir of denial.
ken on Wed, 18th May 2016 11:26 am
clearly remembering the business school textbook example of how money works, imho it seems really weird that the textbook may be wrong? i’m worried; a lot.
Boat on Wed, 18th May 2016 11:30 am
“Technology and its wonders are a elixir of denial”
Technology is not magic or a silver bullet. What it has done is supplied thousands of products that provide work with less energy.
Boat on Wed, 18th May 2016 11:39 am
While many spend their time whining about how technology is a curse they hop in their cars and shop online to buy the latest.
Davy on Wed, 18th May 2016 11:48 am
Boat, what is the alternative? Very few have the luxury of going completely off the technology tether. I myself am using technology and BAU to exit technology and BAU. I have no choice and most others are in the same boat, boat.
Boat on Wed, 18th May 2016 11:54 am
Decoupling of global emissions and economic growth confirmed
http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/pressreleases/2016/march/decoupling-of-global-emissions-and-economic-growth-confirmed.html
Thank technology.
Boat on Wed, 18th May 2016 12:13 pm
Is this peak co2? If not it soon will be.
Boat on Wed, 18th May 2016 12:22 pm
Davy,
I myself am using technology and BAU to exit technoology and BAU.
So why complain against the very things you buy to hedge against an early death?
String900 on Wed, 18th May 2016 12:31 pm
I downloaded a new version of FileMaker database last night.
You’re not counting everything.
Mike Kramer on Wed, 18th May 2016 12:33 pm
I have read more than my share of articles, and watched more than my share of videos concerning this same subject. I could give you a list of names that you would no doubt recognize that echo your views. I believe that those “glass half full” economists cannot handle the truth.
String900 on Wed, 18th May 2016 12:33 pm
FYI:
http://www.filemaker.com
String900 on Wed, 18th May 2016 12:35 pm
Remember, songs, movies, books become audio books or ebooks, and software are now sold thru the internet, and don’t need a box to be shipped across the country.
String900 on Wed, 18th May 2016 12:37 pm
Secondly, even the packaging for laptops and iphones has markedly shrunk in the last few years. You get more iphones in a cartoon than you used to.
So, are you measuring a downturn in the economy, or greater Efficiency in the economy.
String900 on Wed, 18th May 2016 12:39 pm
Finally, when I lease a Leaf, you won’t be shipping oil or gas, and that won’t show up in your shipment records either, but you will see higher earning from my local utility.
This measure alone is not enough.
String900 on Wed, 18th May 2016 12:45 pm
Inflation expectation is down for two reasons:
China, and Europe.
The EU still raping Greece of assets while it spends ZERO Dollars on a stimulus to help Greek unemployment. In other words, Greece will Never Recover.
China. What’s going on with internal Chinese demand?
And at the same time the West Coast has a housing book from Chinese dollars.
The yield curve will drop if they don’t see Europe or China recover any time soon.
String900 on Wed, 18th May 2016 12:48 pm
Looking at Apple, you’ll see a recovery once they get some new computer hardware out the door, most of it’s computer stuff hasn’t been updated in a year.
And in the EV sector, BMW i3 saw a drop in sales of 50% when they announced an increased range coming in November. Where you’ll also see a new BOLT and Leaf.
Apneaman on Wed, 18th May 2016 1:23 pm
Boat CO2 hasn’t been this high in 15 million years. Who ya gonna thank for that – little baby Gee-bus?
So the rate of emissions has stayed the same for a couple of years
“having remained essentially flat since 2013.”
(maybe, maybe not) the numbers are based on data submitted from each individual country.
Do you believe the numbers from China? India?
The numbers I watch are the ones, for atmospheric CO2 that are going up at an ever increasing rate every year (faster faster). They are a direct measurements made with high tech instrumentation.
“Thank technology”
Daily CO2
May 17, 2015: 403.82 ppm
May 17, 2016: 407.20 ppm
https://www.co2.earth/
You’re getting all excited for nothing boat.
The world is like one of those 500lb tub of goo, fat bastards that can’t stop eating junk food. Now he’s bragging because he went from gorging on 5000 calories a day of franken food to gorging on 4995 calories a day of franken food.
Band aid on a point blank shotgun wound.
Apneaman on Wed, 18th May 2016 1:28 pm
Boat, know what this is?
“just capitalism”
False emissions reporting undermines China’s pollution fight
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-power-emissions-idUSKCN0UV0XS
Apneaman on Wed, 18th May 2016 1:45 pm
Boat, whenever big money and emissions regulations are at stake, you can rest assured that the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth will prevail.
The humans are renowned through out the galaxy for their dedication honesty. Especially regarding money, status and power.
Volkswagen: The scandal explained
“It’s been dubbed the “diesel dupe”. In September, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) found that many VW cars being sold in America had a “defeat device” – or software – in diesel engines that could detect when they were being tested, changing the performance accordingly to improve results. The German car giant has since admitted cheating emissions tests in the US.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-34324772
Apneaman on Wed, 18th May 2016 2:41 pm
University of Utah professor Tim Garrett says conservation is futile
“Garrett believes current options to potentially avert climate change — increased energy efficiencies, reduced population growth and a switch to power sources that don’t emit carbon dioxide, as well as underground storage of carbon dioxide from fossil fuel burning — are “not meaningful.”
“Fundamentally, I believe the system is deterministic,” Garrett said. “Changes in population and standard of living are only a function of the current energy efficiency.”
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/705346695/University-of-Utah-professor-Tim-Garrett-says-conservation-is-futile.html?pg=all
The Thermodynamics of Civilization
http://www.paulchefurka.ca/Thermo/Thermo1.html
Thomas Blankenhorn on Wed, 18th May 2016 2:57 pm
Outrageous stock market manipulation since February 11, 2016. Those far on the correct side of fair value for years were finally just starting to get some of their money back then the hyper manipulation kicked in. The market is 3-4X overpriced per historical measures for an economy in the toilet. Upon proper accounting, the real GDP growth has been deeply negative for each of the past 8 years. Government likes to ignore the impact of the population inflation, the percentage of the GDP due to deficit spending, and likes to use a false monetary inflation rate.
Boat on Wed, 18th May 2016 3:55 pm
We’ll see in the future about the numbers. Revisions are pretty standard practice.
In theory the carbon being emitted now will do peak damage in 40 years. Is that fair or are you number challenged doomers have a dozen other formulas.
sidzepp on Wed, 18th May 2016 5:01 pm
As to the wonders of modern technology.
It is great that little ticket items are made available through the wonders of the internet; magazines, music, and books. Yet there is a definite loss in jobs; lumberjacks, mill operators, printers, etal., (though it might be considered positive to eliminate to a degree deforestation.) The big ticket items such as automobiles, houses, appliances, food, furniture, and clothing are still dependent on the fossil fuel complex. Don’t forget the amount of time and fuel spent on travel; for work, pleasure, social activities, and vacations. Then we have the amount of resources used to maintain our oversized residences. Heating in winter, air in summer (which is likely to heat as the warm season seems to continue to take up more of the calendar year). If we start addressing the problem of big ticket items, then and only then might there be hope for the Homo Sapiens Sapiens.
Boat on Wed, 18th May 2016 5:14 pm
Shell creates green energy division to invest in wind power
http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2458236/shell-creates-green-energy-division-to-invest-in-wind-power
Apneaman on Wed, 18th May 2016 5:36 pm
Boat, it is not unfair to cite the 40 year lag. There is newer research indicating maximum heating comes even sooner – 10 years. Why does that matter? Are you not satisfied of the new abnormal deluges your city is getting due to a AGW jacked and whacked hydrologic system? Don’t get use to it – it will get worse. In the future your 17″ of rain in one night will seem like a visit to the water park. This planet is so saturated with CO2 that many former carbon sinks are now carbon emitters due to the warming and the human cancer activities. Positive feedbacks galore and in reality they are unstoppable and non linear. Maybe if the humans went to ZERO carbon overnight it would slow them down. What are the chances?
This newer research is like many of the others. Underestimated the speed of the phenomena by decades. Does it matter? The humans were not going to change anyway. This way is better don’t ya think? Now those who caused it get to feel the consequences they have been warned about for many decades.
Maximum warming occurs about one decade after a carbon dioxide emission
http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124002
makati1 on Wed, 18th May 2016 6:44 pm
Wow! The deniers are out in full and burning up the keyboard with their denials.
If the Us is not in a recession/depression:
Why does it have ~47,000,000 people in the soup lines?
Why has the actual purchasing power of most Americans been declining for the last 30 years?
Why is the middle class now a minority in America?
Why are there millions of homeless families on the streets of America?
Why do millions of American children go to bed hungry?
Why does the Us print $1,000,000,000,000.00+ every year to pay it’s bills?
Etc?
That sure sounds like a recession/depression to me.
Apneaman on Wed, 18th May 2016 7:21 pm
Boaty the boatster. Check out this bit on what all that awesome technology has wrought. Three cheers for the Cancer hip hip………………………………..
Key Hothouse Gas to Rise at Record Rate, Hit Near 408 Parts Per Million in 2016
“By 2014, a Century and a half of global fossil fuel burning had dumped an egregious amount of carbon into the world’s airs — forcing atmospheric CO2 levels to rise from about 275 parts per million in the mid 19th Century to a peak of around 401.5 parts per million during that year. By May of 2015, atmospheric CO2 levels peaked at around 403.8 parts per million. And by April of 2016, the monthly average concentrations of this heat-trapping gas had rocketed to near 407.6 parts per million. As atmospheric CO2 readings typically peak in May, we can expect a final top monthly average this year to range between 407.6 to 408 ppm — or 3.8 to 4.2 parts per million higher than during the same time in 2015. A total overall increase of around 133 parts per million since the 19th Century. A level of atmospheric carbon that — if it is maintained — is enough to increase global temperatures by nearly 3 degrees Celsius over the coming decades and centuries.”
https://robertscribbler.com/2016/05/18/key-hothouse-gas-to-rise-at-record-rate-hit-near-408-parts-per-million-in-2016/
Now you understand why I don’t put much stock in those IEA claims whether they are near accurate or not. All the big environmental groups love those numbers. They hold them up as “progress”. Sure. Those kind of fake meaningless hopium stats will keep the funding coming and keep those phony fucks well compensated. Most of those big enviros are corrupted by taking corporate money. Just a big game.
Sissyfuss on Wed, 18th May 2016 7:37 pm
Aw Apey, you went and sunk the little dingy.
sidzepp on Wed, 18th May 2016 7:44 pm
Mak: the most depressing thing here in the States is listening to all of the politicians making promises on how they will make all of our problems vanish if we graciously give them our vote. More depressing is that Trump is now ahead of Clinton in several polls, not that it matters anyway!
Apneaman on Wed, 18th May 2016 7:49 pm
Sissyfuss, boat sailed up de-nile a long time ago and is happily moored in hopium harbor.
makati1 on Wed, 18th May 2016 8:00 pm
Try this on for size…
http://www.theburningplatform.com/2016/05/16/the-humungous-depression/#more-122454
“We are not in a recession. We are in a depression, and have been since the turn of the century.”
Open your eyes, America!
JuanP on Wed, 18th May 2016 9:06 pm
String “Remember, songs, movies, books become audio books or ebooks, and software are now sold thru the internet, and don’t need a box to be shipped across the country.”
If you live in the USA that happened a long time ago, not in the last few months, but several years ago. But, I have bought more physical paper books in the last two years than I did in the previous more than four decades of my life because I am preparing for a post internet world. I also intend to build a new physical record album collection, probably by buying existing ones, later this year, too. I want to be able to listen to my records in a post electrical world, too.
makati1 on Wed, 18th May 2016 9:35 pm
JuanP, you and I are alike in this area. I have never even thought about an e-book or the junk to read it on. All of those will vanish one of these days. I buy paper books and hard cover if they are resource info. I am also in the market for a wind-up player for vinyl records if I can find one that fits my budget. They have new electric ones here, but I prefer non-electric for the future. Don’t forget to have extra needles on hand.
I wonder how many here have even considered a future without the internet or even electric? After all, it only takes one EMP spike from the sun to fry everything, including those solar panels and their electronic connections. Or a man made one over Kansas.
Mark Mireaux on Wed, 18th May 2016 9:50 pm
Yes, things are far from “great”, but with that said-once again the gloom and doom, fear monger obsessed psychopaths who get a hard on spewing drivel and making people depressed are once again getting hype with their half wit opinions. ENOUGH, already!
makati1 on Wed, 18th May 2016 10:01 pm
Mark, if you do not appreciate reality, go away. You will see a lot of it presented here in the comments, as we live in the real world. The Us is in the commode and about to go down the drain. China has it’s hand on the lever. If the Empire keeps goading it in the South China Sea, it is going to flush and then dollars will be toilet paper.
http://journal-neo.org/2016/05/18/china-quietly-prepares-golden-alternative-to-dollar-system/
Why do you think China, Russia, India, etc are all buying up the real physical gold? Because they like it’s shininess? LMAO
GregT on Wed, 18th May 2016 10:38 pm
Mark Mireaux,
No need for you to subject yourself to such depression. Plenty of mindless drivel for you to wallow yourself in pretty much everywhere but here. Go get yourself some before you off yourself.
p on Wed, 18th May 2016 10:56 pm
THe article misses sale of electronic goods such as iTunes music and movies and they are 20 billions.
makati1 on Wed, 18th May 2016 11:25 pm
p, $20,000,000,000.00 is a drop in the bucket in an $18,000,000,000,000.00 economy. About 1/10%.
GregT on Wed, 18th May 2016 11:44 pm
You’re missing the point mak.
In the not so distant future, people will be able to watch movies of other people eating food, in a world that was formerly comfortable to live in. The potential for ROI could be huge.
p could be on to something here.
Apneaman on Thu, 19th May 2016 12:15 am
Mark, far from “great” is one way to put it, but even if there is some drivel being spewed (boats fault), there is much more evidence being presented that indicates we are light years away from “great”.
I get you frustration and anger, but trying to silence and censor others won’t stop the fall. You’re going through the stages and you may one day come to an acceptance that we are all fucked – fucked ourselves. It’s not the best place to be, but many here are simply unable to pretend and need to rant about it with the very few others that see it. Probably some combination of brain wiring and life experience. I won’t shut up until they shoot me – fuck em.
Mark here is just a couple of examples of not “great” for today. Not great shit is happening everyday.
Stick with me kid and I’ll show you the dark side.
‘Fundamentally unstable’: Scientists confirm their fears about East Antarctica’s biggest glacier
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/05/18/fundamentally-unstable-scientists-confirm-their-worries-about-east-antarcticas-biggest-glacier/
Extreme weather: Highest rainfall recorded in Katunayake
“Some 220 families are feared buried by rain-triggered mudslides in three villages – Siripura, Pallebage and Elagipitya – in Kegalle, according to the Sri Lanka Red Cross. – See more at: http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/sri-lanka-flash-floods-nearly-40-killed-200-feared-buried-in-lanka-rains-landslides-2806335/#sthash.DXSOu8zx.dpuf”
http://indianexpress.com/article/world/world-news/sri-lanka-flash-floods-nearly-40-killed-200-feared-buried-in-lanka-rains-landslides-2806335/
Insurance Bureau CEO calls for national disaster strategy as wildfires rage
“‘New reality’
“While there is a need to reduce greenhouse gases and take a look at the long term picture, I think it would be irresponsible if we didn’t try and adapt and adjust to this new reality. The fire in Fort McMurray just with an exclamation point tells us again that there’s so much more we need to do as a country,” he said.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/insurance-bureau-canada-fire-strategy-1.3587384
Apneaman on Thu, 19th May 2016 12:22 am
Not great
More severe weather, flooding rainfall to target Texas and Louisiana through Thursday
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/severe-weather-flooding-rainfall-texas-louisiana/57503762
US wildfire season expected to be worse than normal
“Last year, wildfires burned a record 15,800 square miles nationwide. Seven Forest Service firefighters died.”
“The Forest Service spent more than $1.7 billion on firefighting last summer. Officials say fires are eating up a growing share of the agency’s overall budget.”
http://globalnews.ca/news/2705619/us-wildfire-season-expected-to-be-worse-than-normal/
Heat wave to bake north India, temperatures may soar to 47°C
“The temperature is so high that I don’t get customers in the afternoon and have to rest under shade,” said Ramesh Meena, a rickshaw puller in Jaipur, who finds it near impossible to work during the day.
“This is only May. I am worried about the coming months.”
Already, two years of successive droughts have sapped rural demand and posed a challenge to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan to double farm income by 2022.
There is no official statistics of aggregated heat-related deaths, but searing temperatures coupled with a drought is said to have killed some 300 people this year, and left not enough food to eat or water to drink in parts of an area that holds about 25% of India’s 1.2 billion people.”
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/heat-wave-to-bake-north-india-this-week-temperatures-may-soar-to-47-c/story-fwtR56vxhUxsOAgIeL7WZO.html
Apneaman on Thu, 19th May 2016 12:40 am
PHOTOS: Nearly a foot of rain turns streets into rivers in Vero Beach, Florida
“More than 11 inches of rain turned the streets of Vero Beach, Florida, into rivers on Tuesday, wreaking havoc across the city.
Tuesday marked Vero Beach’s wettest day on record, receiving 11.22 inches of rain. The coastal city, about 100 miles southeast of Orlando, was left underwater as drenching rain inundated the region.”
http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/photos-a-foot-of-rain-record-breaking-wettest-day-vero-beach-florida/57507946
Ahmedabad temperature touches 49 degree Celsius ; red alert issued
(120.2F)
http://www.thestatesman.com/news/india/ahmedabad-temperature-touches-49-degree-celsius-red-alert-issued/143199.html
India’s drought foretells of greater struggles as climate warms
Cracked soils, farmer suicides and desperate migration are at odds with the country’s image as an emerging economic and technological power, says T. V. Padma
“India’s economy still depends largely on monsoon rains, with two-thirds of its agricultural land fed by rain. Other parts of the country are irrigated but this is costing the country dearly, leading to rapidly depleting groundwater and declining water tables.
The droughts of the 1980s and 1990s were those of poor India, says Sunita Narain, director general of the Centre for Science and Environment in Delhi. “The 2016 drought is of a richer, water-guzzling India.”
An analysis carried out for the World Bank in 2013 found that India is already feeling the effects of a warming climate. If global average temperatures rise by 2 oC, it predicts that unprecedented spells of hot weather will occur far more frequently and cover much larger areas. The monsoon will become highly unpredictable and droughts are expected to be more frequent. “Crop yields are expected to fall significantly because of extreme heat by the 2040s,” it says.”
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2088777-indias-drought-foretells-of-greater-struggles-as-climate-warms
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