The Price of Oil in Terms of Demand

49 Comments on "The Price of Oil in Terms of Demand"

rockman on Fri, 4th Dec 2015 8:21 am 



That was fast: I could stop wasting time as soon as he tried to give the impression that oil demand in China had decreased in the last 12 months when in reality it had increased.

Davy on Fri, 4th Dec 2015 8:29 am 



Rock China does appear to have a rate of growth in decline. In this global world and in relation to China’s economy that is a very important point. Please correct me if I am wrong because I consider you an expert on these details.

http://www.indexmundi.com/energy.aspx?country=cn&product=oil&graph=consumption-growth-rate

rockman on Fri, 4th Dec 2015 10:07 am 



Davy – You are correct: China’s rate of growth has decreased. Which is the same as saying China’s economy continues to grow (still faster then the US) and thus their oil consumption continues to increase. Both statements are facts.

Jeff on Fri, 4th Dec 2015 10:38 am 



Davy – the chart provided via the website you linked does not really agree with charts made of Chinese Demand (Refinery Intake) at the following website:

https://www.jodidata.org/oil/database/customisable-charts.aspx#cdSaudiArabia

I agree that the rate of Chinese Demand is falling (or is about to start falling). I believe that China’s consumption in 2016 will be far less than their 2015 consumption…

twocats on Fri, 4th Dec 2015 10:41 am 



He barely gave that impression. his point is accurate – manufacturing has been stalling/contracting for months in US and China, and that’s with the numbers games they play. Demand may be going up but its like Short on Oil likes to say – it’s a fire sale. we’re losing our bubbles, we need a new bubble, “are you my bubble?”

twocats on Fri, 4th Dec 2015 10:47 am 



http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2015-09-23/china-caixin-pmi-down-to-47-0-from-47-3-6-year-low

I don’t know, everyone’s gonna have to choose their own “facts” here.

Davy on Fri, 4th Dec 2015 11:00 am 



Jeff, I am no expert on Chinese oil demand. I do believe it is aggregate Chinese demand decline driving global deflation and contributing to a demand destruction oil glut. China is a vast economy both domestic and global there is a mixture of decline and growth within this huge economy. Oil consumption on the rise in China does not necessarily equate directly to an indication of Chinese growth overall. Electricity seems to do better as an indirect indicator. People drive for multiple reasons a significant portion is discretionary and marginally productive.

Energy Investor on Fri, 4th Dec 2015 1:58 pm 



For those who think Chinese oil demand will drop in 2016, pray tell how they will provide fuel to the extra 23+ million cars in 2016 over 2015, plus all the trucks, buses etc etc

Driven miles may well fall somewhat but in net terms, the new car owners are likely to drive the total demand.

Energy Investor on Fri, 4th Dec 2015 2:00 pm 



BTW, my comments assume no crash. As I attribute a 55% probability of rapid decent into GD1 in 2016, that could invalidate any of our assumptions.

Davy on Fri, 4th Dec 2015 2:22 pm 



EI, China is a wild card. There is so much potential for demand there but there is no guarantee demand will happen. A crash in China would be ugly. The place is an industrial madhouse. Turn off all those factories and you have a huge mess. I will add a huge global mess. Think of all those replacement parts that can’t get to market. China is too big to fail for all of our locals across the globe. Everyone depends on China.

makati1 on Fri, 4th Dec 2015 9:29 pm 



“China expected to double strategic oil purchases”

Doesn’t look like China’s petroleum demand is shrinking now or in the near future.

GregT on Fri, 4th Dec 2015 10:55 pm 



Chinese growth is stalling because Western economies are failing Davy. The Chinese manufacturing Goliath was born on Western globalist capitalism.

China is looking inwards now, with American tech, American industrial infrastructure, and what used to be American jobs.

There are 1.3 billion people in China, and her middle class continues to grow. Ours is being absorbed by by the .01%, the same .01% that off-shored tech, infrastructure, and jobs, for gross profits for the few, at the expense of the many. China doesn’t have anywhere near as many problems coming down the pipeline as we do, and China has been around for a very long time.

The Chinese people are survivors, just like the Russians. We, are not.

Anonymous on Fri, 4th Dec 2015 11:22 pm 



Its very simple. You take the hydrocarbons out of the economy and you end up with neo-medieval economy with some degree of specialization, but not much.

We’re going to have a sustained economic decline until our economic activity roughly parallels our ability to use a very limited source of hydrocarbons to power any level of sophistication in an economy. Otherwise its back to Ancient Rome where the majority of us become subsistence farmers again with very limited government support.

GregT on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 12:26 am 



“The American way of life is not up for negotiations. Period. – George HW Bush.

Herein lies the problem Anon. An attitude borne from consumerist, capitalist, militarist, dumbed down, indoctrination.

Thing is, nature doesn’t negotiate with terrorists. Keep ripping her apart for capitalist profit, and she will eventually bring in the real “Department of Homeland Security”. All of the advanced weapons of mass destruction in the world won’t make one iota of difference. Mother Nature could give a shit about human imaginary lines drawn in the sand, or their immature little paranoid flag waving exercises, or their multi-trillion dollar per year murder industries.

Mother Nature is in control here, and Mother Nature does not negotiate with anybody, not even the exceptional ones.

Boat on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 4:05 am 



GregT

Why are you always complaining about the US. Your like Texas thinking they can be looked at separately from the rest. Your part of N America. Yep, your future is Mexican. We all live in a capitalist system. Learn to be honest about your country and be honest with yourself. Blame all of capitalism. Blame all trade. Blame the invention of money, But America….please. They are just one tiny country with a small population.

Davy on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 6:55 am 



Greg, are you trying to lecture me on something you think I don’t know? If so don’t waste my time. Sometimes you are such a simpleton who is too hypersensitive. “Davy don’t disturb our anti-American meme on the board”. Why are you so insecure in you ant-American stances? You friggen have a majority on your side. A majority who craves someone to point fingers at and hate. Fine look at economic descent from the anti-American’s view. I include the Chinese in this equation because they are half the equation not something separate like you and the Makster like to believe.

Greg, you have no idea what is going on in China because the experts don’t know. China is an enigma of its own deceptions and vastness. The Chinese play by different rules. We can sift through western manipulation and corruption much better because there are better paper trails. In China business is a shadow system along with the official. It is because of this the whole affair could crash and burn quickly and without warning. Confidence is predicated on security. People are not secure with what they don’t know.

All people are survivors Greg, Chinese, Russian, and North American’s. Americans are survivors and will survive just as well as the Chinese and Russians. It will come down to locals. There are more locals in the US and Russia that will have the right combinations then China. China has destroyed its ecosystem in its quick growth of the last 30 years. In 30 years China destroyed all that was good about its country. This destruction was a global affair with the Chinese included and all for global greed.

Your anti-American prejudices are inadequate Greg to describe a global world and a local world. They work well with agenda’s and tabloid but they do not fit reality. You are not even American why not stick to what you know and that is Canadians. You read too much tabloid anti-American news and watch too much TV.

Davy on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 7:06 am 



Greg said “The American way of life is not up for negotiations. Period. – George HW Bush.

Old news Greg and just more anti-American blather. You are getting as bad as the Makster. The US has been humbled in the last 10 years. Our American dream has been shattered and in tatters. Some still flag waive but it is an empty gesture.

You need to look at you widdly Canada where the economy is heading into recession and likely with some social unrest. Canadians have been spoiled into believing they have a Shangri-La but that is not the case. You Canadians talk about how great you are but you have a breaking point to. You remind me of the Makster with his stance that Asian are super human. I don’t think Canadians are supper human and they are sheeple too.

shortonoil on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 7:56 am 



There is a very limited demand for oil; there are only so many bolts to lubricate, there is only so much plastic pipe that can be used, and it makes for a really crappy salad dressing. There is, however, a considerable demand for the energy that can be extracted from it. The energy is really all that matters. The consumer wants to go from point A to point B, and for that they need X amount of energy. They could care less where that energy comes from. It could come from oil, or from magic pixy dust as far as they are concerned; but since magic pixy dust is getting hard to come by – they’ll settle for oil.

This constant attempt to measure the demand for oil is sort of an oxymoron. Simply put,how do you measure the demand for something that no one really wants. There is just not much demand for oil, almost no one is using it as a salad dressing anymore. However, the world’s plethora of oil analysts will continue to draw graphs, produce charts, compile numbers, write articles, hypothesis, and speculate on how much demand there is for something that almost no one really wants. They then use their appraisals to produce projections that almost never work. Einstein said something about those who do the same thing over, and over again and always come up with the same result.

We’ll continue to concentrate on energy, but we are amazed at the fortitude of the world’s oil analysts.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

rockman on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 9:44 am 



And once more the conversation gets confusing when some define “demand” as what consumers would like to buy (a completely useless metric IMHO because it can’t be measured or even estimated) and what consumers are actually buying. For instance oil demand is very easy to quantify: it’s the amount of oil that is being purchased. In that regards Chinese oil demand is still increasing and shows no sign of “stalling”.

rockman on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 9:51 am 



Which, BTW, shows there has been a significant increase in the demand for oil since the beginning of 2015 as witnessed by the increased production. A growth in demand as a result of lower oil prices. It ain’t rocket science: consumers are buying more oil today then a year ago. Thus there has been an increase in demand.

GregT on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 10:49 am 



“You need to look at you widdly Canada where the economy is heading into recession and likely with some social unrest.”

As I have said many times in the past Davy, I consider Canada to be as close to American as it gets. The Russian farmer is said to be around 20 thousand years old, and China has been around for over 5 thousand years. The West was born from burning fossil fuels. We have never had a society here in North America without them, and we are completely reliant on them for nearly everything. We live in a disposable, capitalistic, consumerist society Davy. Other than a few fringe sub-cultures, we don’t know any other way. People here that are doing what we are Davy, are referred to as nut-bar preppers. In Asia, and eastern Europe, they are referred to as poor dirt farmers, and they have never known anything else.

Davy on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 11:37 am 



Greg, you are a promoter of those you admire and you discriminate against those you hate. You cover that for legitimacy by trying to be apologetic that Canada is close to American. This way it appears you know. You have never farmed so you don’t know much about farming. You don’t know anything about Chinese or Russian farmers. So why stick your foot in your mouth? Just admit you hate Americans and admire Russian and Chinese. You have some romantic notion about dirt poor farmers. We have them all over around here. No big deal.

GregT on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 2:59 pm 



I grew up on a farm in Alberta Davy. We grew barley, oats, rye, wheat, alfalfa, and rape seed. We had a milk cow, goats, chickens, and ducks, and we raised pigs and cattle. We also always had a quarter acre or so in vegetables. Without fossil fuels, things would have been much, much, different.

I don’t hate anybody Davy. Our Western way of life is destroying our biosphere. Poor dirt farmers are our future, if our species is fortunate enough to not cause our own extinction. That to me is a very big deal, and is the main reason why my wife and myself have, for the most part, opted out. I don’t romanticize about where we are headed. I enjoy the niceties of modern industrial society as much as anybody else. I am also very aware that they are not sustainable.

You can continue to bully anyone that you perceive to be putting down the latest iteration of empire Davy. I find your shallowness to be very sad. You are more than aware of what I am talking about, or you wouldn’t have opted out yourself. You fight in support of the very thing that you yourself have walked away from. That to me is bizarre.

onlooker on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 3:44 pm 



Davy, what Greg is saying makes much sense to me. Let us all just drop all this they are the bad ones routine. The whole planets embrace of modern civilization while understandable was not wise and certainly not sustainable. All leadership and governments are proving stubborn, ignorant or too corrupt in showing leadership during these times. We here are just common citizens trying to warn humanity. We should take this with the solemness it merits and not descend into petty one upmanship. We collectively around the planet have followed and are following an unsustainable path relative to consumption and population increase. It makes little difference in differentiating the details of this unsustainability path or assigning more blame. Posterity will scarcely care.

Davy on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 4:01 pm 



Onlooker, look, who is the one after who? Greg has been on my ass now for several days. Greg is an asshole. I treat asshole like assholes. Is that fair or do you want me to bend over and take his shit? I know you guys are buddies that’s fine. I do not get between friends or enemies. This whole commotion in the last week was caused by Greg sticking his snot nose where it didn’t belong with my issues with Mak. That degenerated into a gang bang by him and his buddies. So onlooker no Greg is not the kind of guy you back down to. He will walk all over you unless you stand up to his petty shit. Why might I ask did you not say Greg, leave Davy alone. Why, because his is your buddy and you don’t want to alienate him.

GregT on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 4:37 pm 



I’m on your case Davy because you are full of shit. You continually accuse others here of things that are not even remotely close to being real. All because of a little piece of cloth. Silly.

Your emotions are getting in the way of rational thought Davy. Maybe a timeout will help?

onlooker on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 4:54 pm 



I have to second what Greg says. Davy you are a very intelligent guy and I enjoy your informative posts. But yes I think emotions are getting the better of you. I have no allegiance to anybody here on this site. I simply either respect the posting of someone or not. I respect your posting that is why I am also chiming in, if not I would not bother. Nobody is gangbanging. I feel the feud between you and Mak has compromised the postings on this board. Too bad because some good posts and posters here. By the way I also feel Mak sometimes goes overboard with focusing on just the US. Again it is not about country it is about a group of very high up people in various fields who basically run the show on this planet.

Davy on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 4:54 pm 



Finally Greg, you admitted to being an asshole. That is the first step. You will feel so much better if you learn manners and respect. Try it Greg it is contagious.

Davy on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 4:58 pm 



Onlooker, you are going to find on this board you will need to take sides. You just chose your side. Now if you want to remain a friend leave me be otherwise we will not be friends. It is your choice.

GregT on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 6:10 pm 



Davy,

It is you that has turned the posters here into friend or foe. The rest of us see this as a place to exchange information. Most of us are doing our best to be factual. Just because you find some of those facts uncomfortable, or that they somehow compromise your worldview, shouldn’t make us your enemies. Can you not see how dysfunctional that is?

Davy on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 6:21 pm 



Greg, have you ever listened to your dysfunctional Boat comments? That is example of you hounding someone. You are barking up the wrong tree with me Greg. I promise you I will hound you as you hound me. It really doesn’t bother me. You can get your friends to chime in too. No problem Greg have at it.

GregT on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 6:44 pm 



This is all about your perception that your flag has been attacked Davy, and that anyone who says anything that you perceive to be negative against that flag, is your enemy. You are not a patriot Davy, you are an enabler. As has been pointed out here before by more that just myself, it is people like you that are allowing your country to be systematically destroyed. The types of people that you have declared to be the “anti-American” enemies, are the only types of people that ever had any hope of taking your country back. You are fighting for the people that are bringing your country to it’s knees, and against the true patriots. Exactly what your propaganda and indoctrination were designed to do.

Davy on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 6:52 pm 



Greg, you worry about your dumbass country and I will worry about mine. If I want some help I’l call you. Geez, what an obsessive!!

GregT on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 7:00 pm 



As I have pointed out many times before Davy. Unlike you, I do not identify myself with a flag. Ask yourself; Why is this so difficult for Davy to understand? If/when you ever come up with an answer to that question, you will have found both the problem, and the solution. Until then, some of us will remain (in your mind) anti-Americans, and enemies.

Davy on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 7:12 pm 



Greg, you are disgustingly pro Canadian in the sense that you bash the US and talk up Canada routinely. I love when you and your countrymen talk together. It is especially enlightening when you do your US bad mouthing together. Do you remember the other day talking about the LA girls you met in Baja? You guys have some kind of inferiority complex that bring out the need to bash Americans. You guys are sick.

GregT on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 7:16 pm 



I remember the girls in LA well Davy. They were hot. That doesn’t change the fact that they couldn’t understand why we owned convertibles way up here in the permafrost, and for the record, we didn’t bash them about it.

GregT on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 7:52 pm 



“you are disgustingly pro Canadian in the sense that you bash the US and talk up Canada routinely.”

This is the sort of thing that I was referring to above Davy, when I said that you were full of shit.

JuanP on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 9:03 pm 



Davy, I have completely lost any respect that I had for you. I think you are obviously deeply insane, a deranged lunatic living in denial and full of delusions with absolutely no chance of ever getting better.

You have proven in the last few days that you are a coward, traitor, liar, bully, hypocrite, narcissistic, exceptionalist, delusional American. You are THE SADDEST excuse of a human being I have ever interacted with in my life. A truly pathetic human being. I have reached the conclusion that trying to help you is a waste of time, you are way beyond repairable. I will mostly ignore you from now on, but I will abuse you whenever I feel like it.

You are more responsible for ruining the quality of this forum’s community than any other poster. You are both the board’s bully AND the board’s fool.

onlooker on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 10:59 pm 



It is not about bashing the US, it is about pointing out how this country who could have been the savior of the planet really, in fact has been hijacked and became the principal country to lead the juggernaut of greed, power lust and corrupt dominion that is leading this planet and most beings on it to their demise. I highlight hijacked because as other posters eloquently note these people are traitors to any ideal this country stood for

Davy on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 11:33 pm 



Juan, I used to have respect for you until you turned extremist. You can used as many words as you like but does that make something more or less true? No. You boys are uptight hypersensitive assholes. If the message does not conform to your small group view you lose it. There is a silent majority who ignores the extremism on all sides. They just don’t get involved. You guys are a group of arrogants and idiots who together pounce on those who do not follow your thought process. Extremism is a curse to the world and this site. The name calling and personal attacks are out of control. I am part of this but not by choice.

Please Juan, the last thing I need is another asshole like you or Greg who wants to offer their petty and fake excuse for help. Your so called abuse is just affirmation of my defense of moderation over an extremist group think. You and your group the “basher boys” have ruined the board diversity and code of conduct. I will delight in being a constant minority in opposition to a small vocal group of assholes who hate Americans and any opposition to their extremism. Sorry, I will continue to daily cloud and dilute your extremism of hate, resentment, and bigotry.

GregT on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 11:41 pm 



“I will delight in being a constant minority in opposition to a small vocal group of assholes who hate Americans and any opposition to their extremism. Sorry, I will continue to daily cloud and dilute your extremism of hate, resentment, and bigotry.”

Same shit, different pile Davy. As long as you keep spouting BS, I will continue to call you out. You are completely out of line here.

Davy on Sat, 5th Dec 2015 11:57 pm 



Onlooker grow up this is more than bashing the US. This is about extremism of message. These guys will not allow a message that does not conform to their thinking. We all for the most part bash the US here. I am referencing those in this fight and we all know the players in this battle. It is the degree of that criticism and who the true support is for. They are anti-US and pro Brics. It is Juan, Greg, Ape Man and Mak. We then have the occasional nut cases who bounces in.

We are talking about people who want winners and losers. They want black and white. They want good and evil. There is no grey or shared responsibility in their group thinking. It is their way or the highway. They are vocal and abusive. What is hilarious is I constantly point out the problems with the US but it is not enough for these clowns.

This is an issue of moderation and respect for diversity. This is about tone not about the facts. We know most of the facts. It is about hijacking the presentation of the facts to paint a distorted group think agenda. It is about a petty pecking order. If you are not with them you are against them. To be with these board extremist you must follow their message.

You have chosen to be with this group. You have not yet chosen to get involved in their name calling and personal insults. Time will tell if you dirty yourself with them. It is obvious you want to be a part of this group think. That is fine many find strength in numbers. I will not be an extremist full of hate, resentment, and intolerance. You are deceived by their message and your desire for group acceptance.

Davy on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 12:06 am 



Exactly Greg, and back at your BS. It is worse from you and your groupies because of the size of the shit pile foot print. Same smell and stink as mine but bigger footprint. I will continue to call you out Greg. Your group of extremist are out of line because you want to determine who is or is not in line. That is tyranny by group domination. By the way Greg who in your group determines what is in line and out of line? This is a place of freedom of thought isn’t it? That is a laugh. You are a laugh.

GregT on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 12:11 am 



onlooker,

You have been warned. You are either with Davy, or you are with the anti-US extremists, like me. Black, or white. Choose wisely. There is no middle ground in Davy’s delusional little world.

GregT on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 12:16 am 



“By the way Greg who in your group determines what is in line and out of line?”

Lies are out of line Davy. As long as you keep making shit up in your delusional little world, you will be out of line. We have had this discussion for the better part of two years. I have made myself perfectly clear to you on numerous occasions. Get a grip Davy. You’re losing it.

Davy on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 12:36 am 



Poor widdly Gregger, you have lost it for some time now. You are so correct Greg there is no middle ground with you. In your attempt to fight the evil empire you have become an extremist like them. You have adopted their tools of propaganda and agenda. You practice personal attacks just as we see them do. You are a liar also Greg. Your delusional world of extremism has spanned two years and I have made it clear I am not going to lay down and submit to your world view. I am on my own and not under you or your buddy’s control.

This is a place to battle with ideas but unfortunately for you might does not make right here. It just proves your extremism. You have no real power to stop me and you hate that. You want to be like a tin pot dictator and end my voice of reason and fairness. You hate that because you can’t control my voice. I am a thorn in your side and I love it. I love getting extremist hot and bothered. I will say this about the Makster the silly old man has so much more brass tacks of extremism than you do. Ignoring someone is so much more potent a force than your constant obsessive hypersensitivity. You are showing weakness Greg and you hate that.

GregT on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 12:47 am 



Davy,

You have anger management issues. I know it, and you know it. You’re going to end up losing your wife and kids on top of everything else, if you don’t snap out of it.

Davy on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 1:06 am 



I am laughing and rolling on the floor. Now widdly is threatening my wife and kids. You are a joke Greg. Why not attack my comments on issues and drop the personal attacks. You are appearing obsessively hypersensitive. What a sad example of a waste of a human mind! I just posted a good comment for you and you dog pack to rip apart. Have at it I know I have to throw you dogs a bone. LOL!! ^<^

GregT on Sun, 6th Dec 2015 1:15 am 



You know exactly what I am talking about Davy.