With the ongoing collapse of the oil prices, we can say that it is game over for the oil and gas industry, in particular for the production of “tight” (or “shale”) oil and gas. Prices may still go back to reasonably high levels, in the future, but the industry will never be able to regain the momentum that had made its US supporters claim “energy independence” and “centuries of abundance.” The bubble may not burst all of a sudden, but it surely will deflate.
So, what’s going to happen, now? The situation is, to say the least, “fluid”. A great rush is ongoing to convince investors to place their money where there is still some chance to make a profit. I think we can identify at least three different strategies for the future: 1) more of the same (oil and gas) 2) a push to nuclear, and 3) a push for renewables. Let’s see to examine what the future may have in store for us.
1) A push for more gas and more oil. The oil&gas industry has not yet conceded defeat; on the contrary, it still dreams of centuries of abundance (see, e.g. this article on Forbes). It seems unthinkable that investors would still want to finance uncertain enterprises such as squeezing more oil from exhausted fields or, worse, from difficult and expensive technologies such as coal liquefaction. But you should never underestimate the power of business as usual. If people feel that they absolutely need liquid fuels, then they will be willing to do anything to get liquid fuels.
The main problem with this idea is not so much its technical feasibility. By throwing every resource at hand at the task (and beggaring the whole economy in the process) it would not be impossible to fool peak oil for a few more years. The problem is a different one: it is with climate change and with the fact that we are running out of time. If we keep burning hydrocarbons, we just can’t make it: the industrial society cannot survive the resulting warming and the associated troubles. That is true if we keep burning at the “natural” rate, that is along the bell shaped curve. Imagine if we try to keep growing, instead (as all politicians in the world say we should).
All this is becoming well known and, as a result, a push toward further hydrocarbon production (or, God forbid, more coal) will be possible only if accompanied by a strong propaganda campaign destined to silence climate science and climate activism. Some symptoms that something like that is in the making are evident enough to be disturbing. Consider that none of the Republican candidates for the US 2016 elections supports the need for action on climate change, that in Florida government employees are not allowed to use the term “climate change” or “global warming,” that NASA has been defunded on anything that has to do with climate change, and more. Then, a certain logic starts to appear: “muzzle the science and keep on burning”. Something very wicked this way comes…..
2. A new push for nuclear. This option would not be so bad as the first, more hydrocarbons. At least, nuclear plants do not directly generate greenhouse gases and we know that it is a technology that can produce energy. Nevertheless, the hurdles associated with its expansion are gigantic. The first and foremost problem is that the uranium mineral production is not sufficient for ramping up nuclear energy from a few percent of the world’s primary energy production to a major fraction of it – to be able to do that would require investments so large to be mind boggling. To say nothing about the need for rare minerals in nuclear plants: beryllium, niobium, hafnium, zirconium, rare earths, and more; all in short supply. Then, there are all the nightmarish problems of nuclear waste disposal, safety, and strategic control.
Nevertheless, if it were possible to convince investors to pour money into nuclear energy, then it would be possible to see an attempt to restart it, despite the various problems and disasters that have given to nuclear a bad name. An attempt to do just that seems to be in progress. President Obama is said to be considering a massive return to nuclear and investors are told to prepare for a gigantic surge in uranium prices. Will it work? Unlikely, but not impossible. Something wicked this way comes……
Read more at: http://phys.org/news/2011-05-nuclear-power-world-energy.html#jCp
3. A big push for renewables. Surprisingly, the renewable industry may have serious chances to take over from a senescent oil industry, leaving the nuclear industry standing still and gasping at the sight. The progress in renewable technology, especially in photovoltaic cells, has been simply fantastic during the past decade (see, e.g., the recent MIT report). We have now a set of methods for producing electric power that can compete with traditional sources, watt for watt, dollar for dollar. Consider that the most efficient of these technologies do not need critically rare materials and that none brings the strategic and security problem of nuclear. Finally, consider that it has been shown (Sgouridis, Bardi, and Csala) that the present renewable technology could take over from the current sources fast enough to prevent major damage from climate change.
It looks like we have a winner, right? Indeed, the atmosphere around renewables is one of palpable optimism. If renewable energy picks up enough momentum, there will be nothing able to stop it until it has catapulted all of us, willing or not, into a new (and cleaner) world.
There is a problem, though. The renewable industry is still tiny in comparison to the nuclear industry and especially in comparison to the oil and gas industry. And we know that might usually wins against right. The sheer financial power of the traditional energy industry may well be enough to abort the change before it becomes unstoppable. Something wicked may still come……. (*)
(*) “Something wicked this way comes” is mainly known today as the title of a 1962 novel by Ray Bradbury. Actually, it comes from Shakespeare’s Macbeth..
Davy on Tue, 12th May 2015 7:42 pm
Wow, UGO, this is sexy: “If renewable energy picks up enough momentum, there will be nothing able to stop it until it has catapulted all of us, willing or not, into a new (and cleaner) world.” The problem Ugo is that momentum is an economic illusion.
How are we going to grow AltE and maintain the fossil fuel world needed to grow AltE? How many years have we had to grow AltE during a time of prosperity? Look where solar and wind are now at just a few percentages of total world energy. Hydro, biomass, and geothermal are not going to grow much. This leaves wind and solar. How are we going to grow wind and solar to fossil fuel levels? Imagine the land coverage needed. Imagine the people needed to manage and produce all this resource.
It’s not possible folks. Give up the fairytale and join reality. We need as much of AltE as we can manage but that is never going to be much over 20% if that. I am basing this on the likely depletion of fossil fuels and the likely contraction of the financial system. Even if BAU hums along without disruption growing out AltE to significant levels would be a mammoth long term undertaking amounting to decades of concerted world effort. We don’t have decades on any front. On all fronts we have years maybe. The world is falling apart folks and we are talking about building a golden castle.
Perk Earl on Tue, 12th May 2015 7:54 pm
“How are we going to grow wind and solar to fossil fuel levels? Imagine the land coverage needed. Imagine the people needed to manage and produce all this resource.”
Roll em, roll em, get that red queen moving, rawhide!!! /sarc
coffeeguyzz on Tue, 12th May 2015 8:32 pm
Methinks the author doth protest too much.
BobInget on Tue, 12th May 2015 9:13 pm
“My death has been highly exaggerated”.
Yours truly, Mr Crude Oil.
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/crude.php
sunweb on Wed, 13th May 2015 2:19 am
Ugo Bardi will not admit to this from my communications in the past.
All the things in our world have an industrial history. Behind the computer, the T-shirt, the vacuum cleaner is an industrial infrastructure fired by energy (fossil fuels mainly). Each component of our car or refrigerator has an industrial history. Mainly unseen and out of mind, this global industrial infrastructure touches every aspect of our lives. It pervades our daily living from the articles it produces, to its effect on the economy and employment, as well as its effects on the environment.
Solar energy collecting devices and their auxiliary equipment also have an industrial history. It is important to understand the industrial infrastructure and the environmental results for the components of the solar energy collecting devices so we don’t designate them with false labels such as green, renewable or sustainable.
This is a challenge to ‘business as usual’. If we teach people that these solar devices are the future of energy without teaching the whole system, we mislead, misinform and create false hopes and beliefs. They are not made with magic wands.
These videos and charts are provided by the various industries themselves. I have posted both charts and videos for the solar cells, modules, aluminum from ore, aluminum from recycling, aluminum extrusion, inverters, batteries and copper.
Please note each piece of machinery you see in each of the videos has its own industrial interconnection and history.
http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2015/04/solar-devices-industrial-infrastructure.html
kanon on Wed, 13th May 2015 7:23 am
Davy –How are we going to grow AltE and maintain the fossil fuel world needed to grow AltE?
sunweb –It is important to understand the industrial infrastructure and the environmental results for the components of the solar energy collecting devices so we don’t designate them with false labels such as green, renewable or sustainable.
Some people wallow in hopelessness, an exquisite misery they cultivate and nurture. It is said that misery loves company, but I decline the invitation. Davy, find a cure by answering your own question. sunweb, cut the crap.
dave thompson on Wed, 13th May 2015 7:26 am
Who am I to say that there is nothing to replace the energy capacity of crude oil.
Davy on Wed, 13th May 2015 7:42 am
Kanny, just answer the question and I will join the hopium troop. You obviously have belief and faith so there must be data or is this a religious spiritual thing. What you are saying is “I decline to face reality”. hopium loves hopium and hates even the slightest thought of misery. Well, Kanny, misery is part of life and hopium is a human escape devise.
I asked myself the questions and there were no answers per all available data. Then I looked at you hopium weenies that say technological osmosis will occur and we will have self-replicating AltE to solve the energy, food, water, and ecosystem predicaments. All I see is cowardice:
cow•ard
ˈkou(ə)rd/
noun
1. 1.
a person who lacks the courage to do or endure dangerous or unpleasant things.
synonyms: weakling, milksop, namby-pamby, mouse; More
adjective
1. 1.
literary
excessively afraid of danger or pain.
2. 2.
HERALDRY
(of an animal) depicted with the tail between the hind legs.
Dredd on Wed, 13th May 2015 7:48 am
The only thing that can stop clean energy is what has always stopped it.
Oil-Qaeda.
paulo1 on Wed, 13th May 2015 8:13 am
Where is Rockman when you need him?
To paraprase….at $60+/bbl oil is still +_____% higher in just 10 years than traditional averages.
I believe it is 600% higher over the last while.
I paid $1.23/litre for 80/87 the other day. The ‘collapse’ took the last twenty out of my wallet.
sunweb on Wed, 13th May 2015 8:58 am
Kanon – did you look at the videos are you high on hopium. These are from the industries themselves. They are not cherry picked.
As for hopelessness, I planted 770 hills of potatoes 10 days ago – some we eat, some we sell, some we save for next year and some we give to the food shelf. This weekend we planted another 58 blueberry plants bring our orchard to 430. All our buildings are passive solar on the farm. Our well use old technology so it can be done manually.
At 72, a 12 year lung cancer survivor with 5 stents you have the gall to talk to me about hopelessness and crap.
JuanP on Wed, 13th May 2015 9:17 am
“The problem is a different one: it is with climate change and with the fact that we are running out of time. If we keep burning hydrocarbons, we just can’t make it: the industrial society cannot survive the resulting warming and the associated troubles.”
I believe Ugo knows better han this. Because of ACC time lapse, we are already around 50 years too late, and time ran out before I was born. At least according to the reports I have read through the years. Now, I understand that my version of the facts wouldn’t sell many books. I used to like Ugo better in the past, before he published his book. His writing was more honest them. There is too much hopium there for me now,
IMO, the situation is completely hopeless, but who am I (an ignorant poor migrant) to argue with a published university professor and international lecturer.
Having said that, I still think Ugo is closer to the truth, as I see it, than 99% of human animals.
shortonoil on Wed, 13th May 2015 10:21 am
The problem with the article is that it lacks a time line. Without it, the addictive spice “hopium” can blur reality. Our calculations show we have at most 4 to 5 years before the petroleum industry begins to massively fold, and all the consequential events which will follow it. Events like the world’s fiat monetary systems collapse; along with the global industrial production system:
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
If scaling up renewables is plan B, it is time to start working on plan C. The alternative to C would be to blow each other all to smithereens – and that certainly doesn’t sound like much of a solution.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org
Rodster on Wed, 13th May 2015 10:35 am
Short – “If scaling up renewables is plan B, it is time to start working on plan C. The alternative to C would be to blow each other all to smithereens – and that certainly doesn’t sound like much of a solution.”
No doubt the numpties who are running the show around the world have not counted that out. If they did they wouldn’t be buying their hideaway bunkers in mass.
Davy on Wed, 13th May 2015 11:17 am
Short, I have thought about plan C only objectively and without emotion. Davy Doom Plan C:
NUK China, India, US, and Europe. The majority of the overconsumption and overpopulation are in these areas. We could halve consumption and population immediately. The remaining populations would be decimated by NUK winter, radiation, and systematic BAU breakdown. Who know what it would do to the climate and AGW but certainly nothing worse than what we are already doing.
How’s that for solutions folks? These are the types of solutions we are faced with. Forget the feel good BAUtopian happiness of holding hand and going bravely into a future of progress and improvement. The idea that all people can be saved from poverty. Population growth will be managed. Ecosystem destruction and pollution managed. Global cooperation will break out and all will be well. This is just a MSM fiction of BAU.
Oh, I didn’t get to the part where we will get all the NUK’s to do this. Maybe I can call Putin. He loves NUK’s and surely could give me some advice especially if it involves the end of the US.
BobInget on Wed, 13th May 2015 11:19 am
Lost Control?
BBC reports, when this half the size of Iceland, shelf collapses.(next two decades) it will permit
glasiers
http://www.abc.net.au/science/articles/2015/05/13/4235152.htm
This is not a rehash.’News of the Warm’.
Excerpt;
Larsen C is the fourth largest ice shelf in the world, covering around 55,000 square kilometres — about half the size of Iceland.
Two far smaller companion shelves on the eastern side of the peninsula — the tongue that juts from Antarctica towards South America — have collapsed in the last two decades.
The first, Larsen A, was lost in 1995. In 2002, this was followed by Larsen B — at 3,250 square kilometres.
The Larsen B event had no precedent since the end of the last Ice Age, around 12,000 years ago, according to glaciologists.
The Antarctic Peninsula is one of the fastest warming regions on Earth, with a temperature rise of 2.5 degrees Celsius over the last 50 years.
Northwest Resident on Wed, 13th May 2015 11:48 am
Davy — Why use nuks when TPTB can simply pull the plug on the BAU life support system, lock themselves into their bunkers, then reemerge a month or two later to a dramatically reduced population? Riots, starvation, disease, mayhem and dog-eat-dog on a global scale will reduce population very quickly — save the nuks for when you really need them, like never.
joe on Wed, 13th May 2015 12:00 pm
While I personally can’t wait for peak oil (isis will have a hell of a job taking over everything on camels ) I must sympathise with people who stress themselves. Europe is poised to overwhelm itself with a wave of islamist immigrants, most of whom walked the length of Africa to get to the Libyan coast. They could do this because there is no government in most of the world and Opec/US are busy fighting each other and taking down governments all over the world. Western people are so scared of ‘peak oil’, most people on earth today have yet to experience anything good from it. They say more than half the world lives in cities, they include vast slums and tiny towns in these figures. It’s almost becoming pointless to talk of ‘western’ this or that when China is becoming as rich and globalist as anyone. The problem is indebted servitude (you want a home, you have to take money from a bank and pay them back over 35 years), driven by industrialisation and fractional reserve banking. Most of history is violence, the guy with the most horses or biggest cannon usually won, now it’s the guy with the satalites and most jeeps mixed with a small airforce will win. The speed at which war and revolution happens is astonishing. Egypt went from military dictatorship to democratically elected islamist and back in a flash. This is our future as long as there is oil. The masters of Europe are about to dash the culture of Europe because of their own misunderstanding if history and a foolish dream that Europe has never really given up on, to re found the Roman Empire. The expect African gas to fund it.
BobInget on Wed, 13th May 2015 12:07 pm
If the present developed world leaders think we have a migrant problem now.. With millions (30) internally displaced persons because of war,
factor in a climate changed world in utter disarray.
Hot Seas
Poster’s note:
This breaking news will have more to do with oil consumption then any other event this month.
Besides sea level rise, we have a new ‘El Nino’ developing scientists NOW say will be a whopper.
http://www.bbc.com/news/science-environment-32704506
Excerpt:
The El Nino effect, which can drive droughts and flooding, is under way in the tropical Pacific, say scientists.
Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology predicted that it could become a “substantial” event later in the year.
The phenomenon arises from variations in ocean temperatures.
The El Nino is still in its early stages, but has the potential to cause extreme weather around the world, according to forecasters.
Davy on Wed, 13th May 2015 12:19 pm
N/R, wouldn’t that be inhuman? I mean if we are going to kill billions shouldn’t it be done quickly. I agree with your point but please N/R show some compassion and empathy!
GregT on Wed, 13th May 2015 12:54 pm
Collateral damage Davy.
Nothing personal, only business.
BobInget on Wed, 13th May 2015 12:55 pm
I’m probably premature here.
(no, I’m not ejaculating, just predicting, same thing?)
Chartists will say we experienced a double bottom in oil.
I’ll say oil won’t go below $60 again this year.
Why? You, who give a poop might ask.
a) Weather or more to the point Climate Change(s). Biggest factor.
b) A matched set of Mideast wars all coming to a head like a huge disgusting zit.
c) In the US, a final realization, typified by a series of unnecessary train crashes this month.
Congress needs to take politics out of infrastructure rebuild in the US. The back guy won’t be running again. Time to understand,
there are white, gay Republicans using
highway bridges, airports, trains also.
Being anti everything in a losing strategy.
It’s a Republican dominated Congress’s last chance to do something to garner votes in their own districts. “It’s no tea party without bacon”
d) Defense spending is rising. This gives rise to
short term gains in employment.
Those first four reasons will jack domestic oil consumption.
Expect yet another Million plus p/d barrels to go down the drain waging a half dozen foreign oil wars that could easily meld. (maybe already have)
China, without doubt will soon be capable of devouring all the world’s exportable oil .
China intends for the Yuan to replace USD as reserve currency so as to maintain control of world oil prices. China already controls India’s
oil and gas imports. In a few years China intends to control everyone’s oil imports.
If your waiting for Arctic oil, think a decade.
Natural gas is not the answer but until we stop lookin for oil with HellFire Missiles, it will have to do.
Davy on Wed, 13th May 2015 2:11 pm
Greg, I was trying to be mr sarc but actually it is not a laughing matter. Billions, folks open your ears, billions of people are going to suffer and die soon. 10 years tops maybe 5 years is the likely event timeline.
If I am an asshole, which I am, and if I am combative, which I am it is because of this global die off just around the corner. I am here preaching everyday because I want to get the word out.
I hope I am a genuine nutter. I want to be laughed at and ridiculed. I want all this room to be my delusional mental illness.
I also want my kids to know that I did not hide from reality. I did positive action and I opened myself up to scorn. I want them to know I cared about their future enough to start realative sacrifice and promote change anyway possible. Not that it really matters in the grand scheme of things but it does matter to me. I am my ultimate local and I am changing it.
John Orr on Wed, 13th May 2015 2:57 pm
No matter where you read there is another answer….some worry about warming others worry about future cooling….who’s right?
The dinosaurs didn’t have the answer either! and some of them had two brains, one further along their body to control their size….
Apneaman on Wed, 13th May 2015 3:21 pm
John Orr, the only people who worry about global cooling are those who do not understand the physics, the PR whores who propagate the myth and the unlearned who fall for it.
The myth of the 1970s global cooling scientific consensus
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/2008BAMS2370.1
The Myth of the Global Cooling Consensus
http://www.realclearscience.com/blog/2014/01/the_myth_of_the_global_cooling_consensus.html
Apneaman on Wed, 13th May 2015 3:24 pm
John Orr, no amount of brains can stop the forces underway.
///////////////////////////////////////
So what did-in the dinosaurs? A murder mystery…
Posted on 12 March 2015 by howardlee
Scientists have assembled a slew of new forensic evidence – from high-resolution dates to microscopic fossils – to prosecute the dino-killer. Their indictment has worrying implications for us.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/news.php?n=2892
Apneaman on Wed, 13th May 2015 3:30 pm
John Orr, there have been 14 extinction periods (6 mass and were into 7th) on this planet and all of them happened in a warming world starting with massive releases of CO2 which trigger feedback loops which released methane caused dead oceans which in turn released enough H2S to kill even most terrestrial life in the worst one to date Permian @ 95% of all life.
Everything you need to know about Mass Extinction, Sea Level Rise and Amplification
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4jKo2-dS4M
Apneaman on Wed, 13th May 2015 3:36 pm
Global Warming & Climate Change Myths
Here is a summary of global warming and climate change myths, sorted by recent popularity vs what science says. Click the response for a more detailed response. You can also view them sorted by taxonomy, by popularity, in a print-friendly version, with short URLs or with fixed numbers you can use for permanent references.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php