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Page added on January 13, 2017
The coming famine: Russia, peak oil and the collapse of cheap food
I’ve gotten a couple emails from people who have asked me what I think the “end game” is in regards to Russia. And, indeed, the government is going into extra innings with this whole Russia vilification project. This is worse than someone who has held on to a grudge for years. The government does that, too, but they haven’t done it over ideology (as with Cuba) for quite some time now. What, then, is the motive?
(Article by Jack Perry from LewRockwell.com)
The motive is perfectly clear: Oil. You see, Russia has already eclipsed Saudi Arabia as the world’s biggest oil producer. This means the big Saudi oil fields are drying up. And the government knows that, but they can’t tell us this because it’ll create a panic. One would think this would motivate the United States to get cozier with Russia. However, what the United States government fears is that if we do that, Russia will twig to the motive for it, and realize it has the United States over a barrel. An oil barrel. At which point the price goes up. Not to mention extracting concessions in the global sphere of influence.
Thus, what the United States is playing at here is trying to install a different “regime” in Russia. That being, one that Vladimir Putin does not control or have any influence over. This is easier said than done and the United States knows this. But the stakes are quite a bit higher than controlling the dwindling oil supply in the Middle East. Russia is obviously in control of most of the world’s remaining oil reserves. The United States needs a puppet regime in Russia to have access to that oil without paying the correct market price for it.
At some point, this gambit will fail. Russia is not the Middle East. A war with Russia cannot be won or cease-fired out of. Nor can a United States-backed “regime change” succeed over there. This is not the 1990s Russia of Boris Yeltsin. The United States, however, cannot come clean with the truth to the American people. The reason is because if the American people knew the truth, they’d never sleep nights anymore. The truth is this: Our entire economic system is based on petroleum and low-cost petroleum at that. But the actual nightmare is that our entire agricultural system is based on cheap oil.
The United States diet, especially for average Americans, is based on only three crops: Corn, wheat, and soy. Every processed food you see is based on fractions of those three staples. Meat is fed those three staples, even the farm-raised salmon you see in the store. Without those three crops, the United States would undergo a famine not seen in the United States ever at any point. The United States cannot feed itself without those three crops. What’s more, many large parts of the world depend on those three crops exported from the United States to feed themselves, too. Therefore, without them, the famine would turn into a runaway famine of global proportions.
Those three crops require large inputs of oil to grow, maintain, fertilize, and harvest. The corn alone depletes the soil to the extent synthetic fertilizer made by the Haber Process is an absolute requirement. That synthetic fertilizer requires oil to produce. The tractors and combines to plant and harvest these crops run on oil. All the transportation involved runs on oil. People have been led to believe we’ve discovered domestic oil reserves that will give us self-sufficiency. Who’s telling us this? The oil companies who are in bed with the government. The fact is, if we have to rely on these reserves alone, they will need to be devoted to agriculture alone. Or we won’t eat.
At some point, the oil is going to dwindle. It may have already begun, which is the entire motive for trying to isolate Russia. See, we think the sanctions will create economic hardships that will topple Putin. Then we can install “our guy” (probably being groomed in Ukraine) to run the show and give us access to those last reserves at the price we want to pay. But if that doesn’t happen, and it probably won’t, we better start thinking about the fact food is about to get a lot more expensive. The days of .99 cent super bags of corn chips are about to come to an end. Soon.
Keep in mind that the government heavily subsidizes those three crops as it is. Otherwise, food would be a LOT more expensive. Understand this: We are all on food stamps because the government subsidizes corn, wheat, and soy. If they did not, many people would not be able to afford food at all. What you see in the store is not the real and actual cost of that food. You’re seeing it after the government paid up to half (or more) of the cost to grow that corn, wheat, and soy. Including that which was fed to animals, we eat. Meaning, if you think beef is expensive at $6.99 a pound, the actual cost is $15.99 a pound if the government did not subsidize the corn fed to that cattle.
That can only take place because the oil is relatively cheap. Were the oil not cheap and the government still had to subsidize the food crops, the money will probably have to be diverted from Social Security, interstate highways, and the military budget. So you can see the corner the government has painted themselves into. They can’t afford to do nothing but they can’t afford to get into an actual war with Russia, either. However, the steps they are taking carry the very real seeds of a war, but the government is willing to risk that, gambling a certain future of food riots against the possibility of a war. It’s a lose-lose proposition, but the government and Wall Street are stubbornly refusing to own up to the truth. They have staked “growth” of the economy on the price of oil. We are in a suicide pact with them right now.
Oil is a finite thing. It will run out. This is a fact. Now, the cheap oil has led up to more food grown and, as a result, more people born because we had the available food to feed them. These people, in turn, have increased the demand for more oil. Hence, the consumption of oil goes up each year. Meaning, the oil supply (being finite) gets lower and lower but the demand for it goes higher and higher. In truth, this means the oil will run out faster than any predictions made based upon world population numbers of even ten years ago. Every person who comes into the world, whether that person drives a car or not, has a demand upon the oil supply. Why? Because oil is the only reason food can be grown in any industrialized nation. It isn’t the cars, folks. It’s the food.
Go to your supermarket and start reading the ingredient lists of the processed foods people have come to rely upon. You will find that corn, wheat, and soy are in all of them. The entire meat department relies upon corn and soy to feed those animals. The entire dairy department relies upon those cows being fed corn and soy. Yes, there is rice and potatoes. But those two crops will not make up the deficit in the public diet if we lose just corn alone. This entire system is a house of cards built upon corn which, in turn, is teetering precariously on a barrel of oil.
My prediction? I’d say if Russia refuses to play ball with the United States, we will begin to see oil prices quietly going up. One day, some major oilfield is going to dry up completely and the price will quadruple overnight. Any corn out to harvest will see the projected cost to harvest it skyrocket. The trains to transport it may be in control of railroads without the available capital funds to pay for the diesel. Remember, this country runs on credit, not cash. Credit will not be worth squat in the coming economy of low oil availability and food scarcity as a result. We may see entire fields of corn rot for lack of oil to harvest and transport it while entire cities see supermarket shelves bare.
This is the “end game”. This is the future. There can be no other reason the United States is willing to risk war with Russia. Oil is always the reason the United States goes to war since the 1973 Arab Oil Embargo showed us how vulnerable we really are. But this time, we’ve got a “false prosperity” and millions of people born solely because of the cheap food brought to us by cheap oil. When that oil is gone, guess what? We will not be able to feed all those people born because cheap oil made feeding them possible. You do the math on what that means.
65 Comments on "The coming famine: Russia, peak oil and the collapse of cheap food"
makati1 on Fri, 13th Jan 2017 8:10 pm
“But the actual nightmare is that our entire agricultural system is based on cheap oil.
The United States diet, especially for average Americans, is based on only three crops: Corn, wheat, and soy. Every processed food you see is based on fractions of those three staples. Meat is fed those three staples, even the farm-raised salmon you see in the store. Without those three crops, the United States would undergo a famine not seen in the United States ever at any point. The United States cannot feed itself without those three crops.”
BINGO! The U$ is NOT immune to famine on a huge scale. Yes, it would spread, but not as much as some here want to believe. One really bad weather growing season and the U$ might be begging grain from Russia. LOL
Midnight Oil on Fri, 13th Jan 2017 8:37 pm
Let’s see..1% of western food is grown “organically” and @1% of that is cultivated within a permaculture design framework…
So, in essence practically nothing will be available to most of the population here in the USA…except for those that are willing to eat lawn grass, rats, bugs, cats dogs ect…
Oh, we already are seeing that happen in a few other countries.
Denial on Fri, 13th Jan 2017 9:02 pm
Yes MaK BUT at least the United States has Macgyver….so not to worry…tell me man- do you do anything but eat doomer porn all day?
makati1 on Fri, 13th Jan 2017 9:13 pm
“When the Collapse starts, the best place to be is where the community is closely in touch with a sustainable lifestyle, otherwise known as the Third World. Here extended family ties are strong, most people eat from their own gardens and buy and sell at local markets. Also, if you worry about Global Warming, the best place to be is close to the equator, with volcanic soil, and with a maritime climate – where higher temperatures have the negative feedback effects of more clouds, more rain and cooler temperatures. That’s why I live on an island in the South Pacific, in a modern house built in the tropical rainforest.”
http://www.doomsteaddiner.net/blog/2017/01/13/summer-in-the-tropical-rainforest/
My sentiments exactly!
makati1 on Fri, 13th Jan 2017 9:22 pm
Denial, I read a lot of articles about current events, which happen to point to the future of humanity. And it is ALL negative. The only “positive” articles are by unicorn believers and denialists. Or, the propaganda mills of the West. Not worth my time.
I also read a lot of history so I know what happened in other, similar situations. I also learn more about the ecology we are killing. My college major was biology. That was in 1962 so I have kept up with developments since then.
I follow the events that affect, or might affect, me personally. I don’t give a damn about you or yours. If that makes me a doomer, so be it. I am prepared for the future. I bet you are not.
Elmer on Fri, 13th Jan 2017 9:42 pm
First it was the Middle East oil, and now Russian oil? Probably. Most of the conflict areas in the world are located over “our” oil. Without energy, people die. When energy-addicted people/governments discover oil is disappearing, they get desperate. Foreign oil was the target in the 1975 spy thriller film, Three Days of the Condor starring Robert Redford.
from Wiki:
A mild mannered CIA researcher ( Joe Turner, played by Robert Redford), paid to read books, returns from lunch to find all of his co-workers assassinated. “Condor” must find out who did this and get in from the cold before the hitmen get him. Turner learns that the report he had filed provided links to a secret CIA plan to take over Middle Eastern oil fields.
Dialogue from final scene:
CIA deputy director character responding to Turner’s disgust for the CIA Middle eastern oil plan: “No. It’s simple economics. Today it’s oil, right? In 5 or 10 years– food, plutonium, and maybe even sooner. What do you think the people are going to want us to do then?”
Turner: “Ask them.”
CIA deputy director: “Not now. Then. Ask them when they’re running out. Ask them when there’s no heat and they’re cold. Ask them when their engines stop. Ask them when people who have never known hunger start going hungry. Want to know something? They won’t want us to ask them. They’ll want us to get it for them.”
Film clip—It’s all about oil:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=robert+redford+3+days+of+the+condor+fianl+scene&&view=detail&mid=2611E86883BD49590FC02611E86883BD49590FC0&rvsmid=6DF2939E1FA511AF2E4D6DF2939E1FA511AF2E4D&fsscr=0&FORM=VDQVAP
Film clip—Final scene:
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=robert+redford+3+days+of+the+condor+fianl+scene&view=detail&mid=6DF2939E1FA511AF2E4D6DF2939E1FA511AF2E4D&FORM=VIRE
Discussion of the film/Deep State on Corbett Report: https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=robert+redford+3+days+of+the+condor+fianl+scene&&view=detail&mid=B4CEB1EC2DEB6D24DD2EB4CEB1EC2DEB6D24DD2E&rvsmid=6DF2939E1FA511AF2E4D6DF2939E1FA511AF2E4D&fsscr=0&FORM=VDQVAP
joe on Fri, 13th Jan 2017 10:31 pm
All the Saudi bought politicans and the Bush loyal CIA is trying to bring down Trump before he even swears to defend the Constitution! Trump is being politically assassinated and I fear he may be actually so. Look at his policies 1. Law and Order, 2. Enforce the legal borders of America, 3. Better ties with Russia (a JFK policy btw), 4. Conservative court judges etc.
Yet so called conservatives like Lindsey Graham and John McCain are trying to bring hik down. Now they try to paint Trump as a manchurian candidate who is taped engaging in unknown sexual exploits (which lets face it, if they are hetero and not odd, will make him very popular), but it seems is all lies made up by so called professional British spies. In their anger they are exposing their true methods of lying, exactly how they got the Iraq Warcrime done. Trump is calling them what they are and they hate him, he may drain the swamp, but the true swamp may have the name CIA on it.
Russia is dangerous like Trump cause they cant be bought they protect their own and dont want outsiders settling their internal matters, its somthing the deep state of unelected career officials cant excert control over, so they fear it. Right now the media is in total shutdown and is in the anger phase of grieving for the defeat of their false God. Right now they will feel its fine to print any lies it wants as it thinks IT still matters. The 4th estate has moved to twitter, facebook and wikileaks. Most of whats left is irrelevent who get ride alongs on tanks.
Sissyfuss on Fri, 13th Jan 2017 11:50 pm
This article explains peak oil in a very lucid style that elicts a primal discomfort in me. The horror and chaos he describes brings home the reality that we will all be facing well before we are ready for it. Impossible to see anything positive in such a future. May we hold it off for as long as possible.
Anonymous on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 3:29 am
Exactly….
Kathy C on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 4:21 am
http://www.worldwatch.org/node/572
John Sheehy at the International Rice Research Institute in Manila has found that damage to the world’s major grain crops begins when temperatures climb above 30 degrees C during flowering. At about 40 degrees C, yields are reduced to zero. “In rice, wheat, and maize, grain yields are likely to decline by 10 percent for every 1 degree C increase over 30 degrees. We are already at or close to this threshold,” Sheehy says, noting regular heat damage in Cambodia, India, and his own center in the Philippines, where the average temperature is now 2.5 degrees C higher than 50 years ago.
Sissyfuss, every day 300,000 new humans are born. Every week that the end game is put off means over 1 million new humans that have to die untimely and likely miserable deaths. For the sake of the unborn, I hope the end comes sooner rather than later.
Hello on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 5:17 am
When cheap oil disappears, a lot of farm jobs will become available.
The local farmer who cultivates 1000 acres with 5 tractors will become a major employer again.
What do you rather do? Go work on a farm or dying of hunger because oil for the tractor is no longer available?
makati1 on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 5:21 am
Kathy C. Since temps here rarely get much over 32C and, in my 9 years here, has exceeded that temperature rarely, even here in Manila, I am not worried about the rice crop. The Ps is not a continent type country like Cambodia or India or the U$. It is an island nation surrounded by hundreds and thousands of miles of temperature moderating ocean. When the temps get too high here to grow rice, the rest of the world will be starving.
In fact, temperatures here are boring. Days in the 80s. Nights in the 70s. The higher elevations do see temps down in the 50s at times, but not in the 90s and 100+ range. “The average year-round temperature measured from all the weather stations in the Philippines, except Baguio City, is 26.6 °C (79.9 °F). Cooler days are usually felt in the month of January with temperature averaging at 25.5 °C (77.9 °F) and the warmest days, in the month of May with a mean of 28.3 °C (82.9 °F)”
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Climate_of_the_Philippines#Temperature
Maybe this guy is writing for a paycheck?
Cloggie on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 5:54 am
The article says: I’ve gotten a couple emails from people who have asked me what I think the “end game” is in regards to Russia. And, indeed, the government is going into extra innings with this whole Russia vilification project. The motive is perfectly clear: Oil.
No it isn’t. The real ultimate motive is world empire or NWO as it is called by the Alex Jones types.
Since the USSR refused to team up with the US shortly after WW2 and instead chose the path of National Bolshevism, Russia was the declared enemy of the US, until November 2016 that is.
America was at the zenith of its power in 1991, when the USSR collapsed and [cough] “oligarchs” took over Russia. Until 2000, when Vladimir the Great took over Russia and gave the boot to the oligarchs. There is no person more hated by the western global imperialists than Vladimir Putin, except perhaps Adolf Hitler, but the latter has the convenient property of being rather dead.
The strategy of the West since 2000 has been to attempt to topple Putin, using treacherous NGOs as a tool and re-integrate Russia into the West… as a vassal, like Merkel, Hollande and Cameron. Once that would have been achieved, China would be the last item on the todo list of global governance.
That’s all history now. Trump has given up on world empire and even more important, die-hard imperialists like Zbigniew Brzezinski as well.
Davy on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 6:12 am
Times are changing and people don’t want to let go of their anchored ideas of meaning. Yea the 3rd world would be a “best place” for that romantic notion of subsistence and closeness to nature if that was really valid. Sure some will make it but not without many that don’t. Poor farmers still rely on the economics of globalism even in their simple existence. Many of their consumer goods are also from China. I am a farmer unlike people here who talk about fantasy farming. I had a million dollar corn and soy farm around 2000. I now have a small permaculture farm that is not big enough to make a living but it will contribute to survival. Crops fail and it is the global system that supports individuals and regions when these failures occur. The third world is overpopulated nearly everywhere. It is dependent on far too many consumer goods from the global economy. The industrial reality of oil and the global economy are a part of even the smallest farm in some way. My permaculture farm is no different.
It is clear the 1st world and its industrial agriculture is at risk. That is obvious because it is an extreme of existence. Nothing about it is sustainable per planetary realities nor ecologically resilient. It has been highly sustainable and resilient but only in a finite way. It has been so successful because of growth and ample resources. We are nearing the end of the line where limits and diminishing returns are becoming a factor. It is quietly happening in an indirect way. Oil is depleting in economic value. Climate along with soils and water resources are degrading and destabilizing. All this as populations increase and concentrates in urban areas with high consumption demand. All this as a vast built out civilization is facing maintenance and upgrades at the same time growth is stalling. It is the “all this” that is becoming overwhelming.
The story of oil is not what it used to be even the peak oil story has had to adapt. It is clear that the economy and oil are now very much mutually dependent now that both are in a negative trend of declining growth rates. Economic demand is stagnating in stagflation. Oil is depleting and the returns on its production dropping. Places like Russia enjoy the benefits of oil and other resources but resources carry a curse now that the economy is stagnation. It takes a healthy global economy for a nation like Russia to realize the benefits of their resources. There is no longer the power found in black gold to disregard the global economy with self-motivated policy. If you harm the global economy you harm yourself. We are now entering that stage of development that is the stalling of development. Resource nations are feeling the pain just as consumer nations are. Demand destruction even with growth still present is changing global dynamics.
The US and Russia may be finding a détente and this is good. It is unlikely they will become an alliance because the dynamics are not there. It may be that Putin and Trump like each other and they can find mutually beneficial policies and actions. Trump is looking towards nationalism and isolationism maybe not in the extreme but as a way to twist arms economically. Militarily he will demand more out of allies for a US military umbrella. Trump wants to distance himself from the UN and work more bilaterally. We can see a clear trend of world powers in a time of stagnation becoming ever more dependent on each other. This is especially true with China and the US. It is unlikely Trump will take military and economic confrontation very far with China because he can’t. The Chinese can’t either. We are now to the brittle point in a civilization where dramatic changes are not possible except by a break to a new level. If confrontation is taken the results will be dramatic for everyone. Russia, China, Europe, and the US are at this place now so don’t expect much change if we are to maintain the status quo.
There is room for nationalist economic policy. This will actually lower global output and disrupt global finance lowering global GDP. If you believe we are in a paradigm shift of descent then you see that this may be a good thing by tempering the extremes of globalism and introducing local and regional based growth instead of global growth. That is if we make it through this process. There is nothing that prevents us from failure. Failure is assured either way. It is the scale and the timing that is important now not “if”
We must start “relocalizing”. Global choices with disregard for seasons and distance is not going to last. It is likely too late for the relocalization needed without a collapse of sorts but we can halt the extremes of globalism. This is the beginning of the end for the 20 century apex of economic and political growth as a one world. We are now on the down side of every metric that is human and planetary. Start thinking differently and you will see this trend. Dwell in the 20th century and you will be sidetracked. Technology and progress are a failed mantra don’t be fooled by their siren song. No, man’s 20th century mentality is alive and well it is just his existential reality that has shifted. His mentality has yet to adjust. It will adjust because planetary realities are the kind of things that focus and change behavior. Famines and shortages do this. Extremes of climate do these things. Limits and diminishing returns do these things.
We are in a new period of decay and decline. Adjust yourself now and hope your little place in this global civilization adapts and adjusts. Let’s hope our collective collapse can be spread out over years not months. We still have time to adjust and we still have the resources to mitigate some. Much of what is coming is beyond the scale of either and we will just have to live and die through it. Many people will start dying across the board rich, poor, old, young and the sick. Why, because this is what happens when population growth is reversed. Deaths over births will happen and likely within a few years especially if the global economy slows bellow a minimum operating level to support new growth. We are in the vicinity of this so if you are smart you will ride the wave of change.
Davy on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 6:18 am
Great reference Kathy but if it was directed to makati don’t expect him to process it. He feels it is everyone else that will fail. He cannot see that his little overpopulated nations facing the worst of climate change is no better than any other place. We all have comparative dangers. Yes, some face worse but all face dangers and it is those who face their danger that will adapt. Those who point fingers at others and don’t look at themselves will perish. It is people like makati that are lost in their ego that will perish because they will make poor decisions.
Cloggie on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 6:26 am
Latest statements by Trump concerning Russia:
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/usa-und-russland-donald-trump-erwaegt-sanktionen-zurueck-zu-nehmen-a-1129988.html
– Trump is willing to meet Putin soon
– Trump willing to consider lifting sanctions
– Trump rejects the idea that Russia might have directly influenced the election outcome, but does acknowledge that Russia might be behind the high-profile hacking of the Democrats (keyword Podesta). Which is likely BS, Assange denied Russia as being the source; most likely it came from the DNC itself and more particular a disgruntled Bernie supporter.
– Trump team admits there were immediate diplomatic contacts between them and the Russians, after Obama imposed sanctions to punish the hacking (probably damage limitation from the side of Trump)
– Trump wants to end considerations with China over Taiwan.
Wouldn’t be surprised at all if it turned out to be true that there were connections between Trump and the Kremlin for years now. Trump is clearly modelling his presidency after Putin, especially in attempting to defeat the globalist oligarchs (hi George). His strategy is to team up with Russia as a partner and to end the practice of decades of transferring American industry to China and preferable get a lot of it back. The America First movement of the thirties failed; this one could succeed if Trump-Washington accepts Europe and Russia as contract partners rather than vassals and as such move away from an excessive wasteful military with little returns and delegate a lot of it to Europe (“let them pay for their own defense”) and free resource for more profitable ends. US-Russian antagonism will decrease, US-Chinese increase.
onlooker on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 6:29 am
Very true what Davy is saying about the third world. Subsistence living has very little margin for failure. Widespread pest infestation, bad farming season etc can make provisions of food very scarce. Not to mention antibiotics are also used in third world allowing people to survive infections that normally will kill them. Also, the land is degrades from forest cutting, soil erosion and widespread pesticide use. The simple arithmetic does not add up to allowing so many people to survive post peak oil. Already fresh water supply is starting to run quite short in overpopulated countries in Asia. Also, people are not just going to roll over and die, they’re will be widespread rioting and mayhem and survival of the fittest. Not to minimize what will happen in rich countries, but post peak oil, the world will revert back to simple carrying capacity for all regions, international trade will cease and particular locality will only be able to support a certain amount of people. So countries with relatively the best population to resources ratio will hang on best. Oh and did I say that climate change looks like it will hit harder and sooner the Southern poor hemisphere.
makati1 on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 7:18 am
onlooker, You have a normal view of the 3rd world as portrayed in Western propaganda. The 3rd world has been managing without those “needs” for, oh, a few thousand years. I think they can do quite well without them in the future. Not to mention that antibiotics are killing the Westerners by making diseases resistant to cures like “antibiotics”.
Do not lump ALL 3rd world countries together as one example. For instance, the Ps has plenty of water for agriculture. It may not have water for big cities to waste, in the future, but rain will fall where it will. About 40″/year in the Western side to about 180″/year on the East side, where our farm is. Too much water is our problem, not too little.
I would not put a lot of faith in what climate change will, or will not do. Look at California. Drought, now floods, and maybe drought again before 2017 is out. Weird weather yes. Predicable, less and less so. And again, not all 3rd world countries will suffer the same problems.
bobc on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 7:18 am
Corn,Wheat & soy -processed foods are not necessary or even a healthy way to eat -consumers in the U.S. would be much better off by cutting their consumption of these products by at least 70% and switching to a more locally grown, green plant based diet, grass fed beef, free range chickens etc.The sources of these would scale up even faster than they currently are once demand does. Processed foods are in general -Crap as are factory feedlot animal products.Best to ease off consumption of them asap.Plenty of healthier ways to eat-no need to panic if your store runs out of white bread and cereal and chips.
makati1 on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 7:24 am
bobc, grass fed beef will never ‘scale up’ to feed lot beef. Not enough grassland to do so. Ditto chickens and other “free range’ meat. Same reason.
When the climate change cuts into the growing of grains, red meat will disappear or be the food of the wealthy. Corn and soy will be your diet. Yes, Americans are obese on the above diet. But, not if they had to work the fields to eat it. lol
Davy on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 7:30 am
Makes you wonder!
“Is This The Coup In America? “U.S. Troops On Russian Border” To Start War Before Inauguration”
http://tinyurl.com/z2l47or
“Is there a coup underway, while America is in the transition period, and before Trump swears in as the 45th president of the United States? How real is the clash between the rogue Manhattan billionaire and the intelligence gang behind the throne? Who will win the struggle for power over foreign policy? These are serious times and require serious considerations.”
“Until Donald Trump swears in and settles into the White House, the U.S. remains in a strange air, with an open window for a coup to take place, or a major unforeseen disruption…With claims that Russia hacked the U.S. election, foreign policy has never been more warlike…..Leftists and angry Hillary supporters are revolutionary, if severely misguided…..In his final week in office, lame duck Obama could lay an egg that hatches the war…..Defensive measures, including setting up anti-missile defense shields has moved inward….Beware these next few weeks, and remember that the continuity of government “Doomsday” command-and-control planes were brought out after the election as a public show of power to Trump and the American people. The shadow government is real, and for now, maintain dominance.”
“D.C. National Guard Chief Fired Days Before Trump Inauguration: “The Timing Is Extremely Unusual”
http://tinyurl.com/z84wsxd
“It doesn’t make sense to can the general in the middle of an active deployment,” rages D.C. Council Chairman Phil Mendelson (D) after Maj. Gen. Errol R. Schwartz, who heads the D.C. National Guard and is an integral part of overseeing the inauguration, has been ordered removed from command effective Jan. 20, 12:01 p.m., just as Donald Trump is sworn in as president.”
Davy on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 7:36 am
Makati do the math. The p’s has 100MIl in the space of Arizona. That is not sustainability so your personal advertising is being rejected. The P’s have some comparative advantages but please quit the propaganda the place is a refuge because it isn’t. We are big boys here and you are talking to us as if we were children. You need to get over to that fantasy farm and start farming and talking less. BTW you mentioned your college major was Biology. Did you mention you didn’t finish college? Nope, because it didn’t fit your agenda this time. At other times it has and that is what you said. Get real, we don’t need you fabrications and distortions.
joe on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 7:54 am
This has been playing out since humanity began. The only true replacement for oil is people or animals. At some point industrial reality kicks in, you can use all that solar energy you gathered to keep the lights and fridges on, or you can melt the steel to build the bridges, you wont be able to have both, as for food, forget it, in the end, ny spare energy after fertiliser production will be wasted by the 1%, their home heating will be a rare luxury as it has been through history. Death of course will be common and much less terrible as will reverse immigration be the new world order. How long will people stay in cold regions when there is no heating. At least the population collapse will be fast.
bobc on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 8:14 am
Makati -There are many,many different vegtables and fruits that are and will still be grown- I dont eat corn or soy products now and am healthier for it, we dont need corn and soy -its just the most profitable way to make crap processed food (also corn sweeteners another terrible for you product) As for scaling up of grass fed and free range -of course I agree it will never reach factory feedlot levels and thats good -we dont want so much beef production or consumption-its unhealthy in large amounts,uses huge amounts of water and cause much pollution,global warming via methane etc. A small amount of local animal products and lots of vegtables and small amount of fruit will be your healthiest diet and you wont neeed processed corn or soy stuff.
Davy on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 8:58 am
I agree that diets can and should change. Many of the changes offered today that are healthy are not necessarily cost effective in a time of crisis. These good choices are available now because we are still in an affluent period. Changes to less affluence are likely considering all our problems and predicaments ahead. The comparative advantage of farming depends on location. I am heavily slanted towards grass fed animals. Some areas can do more with grain and others more with vegetables/fruits. Most areas have the potential for all the above but in variable concentrations. This means solutions are many and varied and included in this is how the collapse process unfolds if at all.
If we go into a crisis period of food insecurity we will be eating whatever is available. A significant amount of that availability will be unhealthy processed foods at least in the start of a crisis. Why processed foods, because there is a significant infrastructure in place that cannot be changed quickly. Who knows how a crisis will unfold because we have little idea what kind of crisis will develop. The possibilities are all over the place.
This is why it is so important now people begin to raise food locally. A city or town with a population that is active with gardening and small scale animal husbandry is a more resilient and sustainable community. This does not mean they will necessarily survive any better because all communities have been delocalized by globalism. Fate can affect communities adversely even with the best of practices. Some communities are in the crosshairs of climate change others a potential civil war. There is so many issues going on as to make any one food system vulnerable whether that is industrial, permaculture, and or wholesome organic.
We are going to have to include industrial agriculture in any transition mix because that is what we have and we no longer have the luxury of a transition to something else at least not at the lifestyles we have today and the population levels. Permaculture and localism should be a growth industry because they are best practices. Yet, figuring out ways to adapt and salvage industrial agriculture is likewise important. We are stuck with industrial agriculture. Nothing else comes close to its productive abilities considering the needs of 7BIL people. In times of crisis the wonderful ideas behind permaculture will play second fiddle to survival of what is most available.
It is obvious industrial agriculture is going to go away because it is composed of finite substances and unsustainable practices. I doubt it will go quickly but it will go. My point of view is of a collapse process. Many today do not see a collapse process they see progress. They are techno optimist and green enthusiast. These people believe we can live in affluence with some tweaking that consists of alternative energy and permaculture. This to me does not stand up to reality. I would love for it to be true but reality is speaking against these wonderful thoughts at least to me. I hope I am wrong.
Davy on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 9:02 am
Elmer, you may try to use this to avoid messing the board up where our conversations run off the page. You huge references where more than the board could take.
http://tinyurl.com/
“Welcome to TinyURL!™”
“Are you sick of posting URLs in emails only to have it break when sent causing the recipient to have to cut and paste it back together? Then you’ve come to the right place. By entering in a URL in the text field below, we will create a tiny URL that will not break in email postings and never expires.”
paulo1 on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 10:08 am
Great discussion you folks have had. I’m a little nervous because I could appreciate what everyone has said. Maybe I had a good sleep, or something.
I just want to point out a big big item everyone has missed, though, and that is tribalism. Mak, I have a friend who married into a Phillipino family 30+ years ago. You know what? Beyond being a source of economic help for them and a great in-law, he is still an outsider and always will be. When times get tough, and obviously more localized, there will be a direct relationship to survival whether you are ‘one of the group’. Moving there, moving ahead of time to any possible landing zone, means nothing in times of hardship. Duerte will not be welcoming, that much is quite obvious.
Even in a warm fuzzy place like Vancouver Island this is the case. There are the obvious outsiders, retirees who have settled into the southern sudivisions. As long as things are going well, they will be okay and their lack of connection to the land means nothing. But if real decline sets in, they will be virtual prey, one way or another. Fleeced and taken advantage of, certainly.
I have lived within 100 miles of the same place for almost 50 years. I have worked in the local resource industries for 35 of those years, and taught school for just over 15. And even though I am well accepted in our rural valley and have lived here full time for the last 12 years, and in the immediate area for 30+ years….I am on the extreme edge of being a local. It might take another 10-15 years, I reckon.
My point is this. You folks are talking about extreme collapse. This seems to be a lifestyle more suitable for clan/tribe strength through affiliation and mutual support. Unless you are born there, or have damn close connections, there isn’t a hope in hell of being accepted.
No, everyone best stay close to home and develop a changed lifestyle with what they know. There is no ‘crash course’ for newcomers and outsiders. However, there are unlimited ways for people to become more resilient where they now live and most likely belong.
regards
Elmer on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 12:36 pm
Davy, Thanks for the info re TinyURL.
Newfie on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 12:53 pm
“One day, some major oilfield is going to dry up completely and the price will quadruple overnight.” No. Oilfields don’t “dry up” overnight. They slowly decline. So the price won’t “quadruple overnight”. There will be time to react when oil production eventually peaks.
R1verat on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 1:34 pm
Pay no attention to Mak. According to him, if you don’t live in the PI you are screwed. Nothing worse than a righteous US expat!
Trust your own gut & go where it is right for you.
Kathy C on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 1:57 pm
Makati – right now in the middle of winter here in South East US we are having temps running 25 degrees above normal.
Glad to hear you are still have moderate temps in the Phillipines. However the Arctic is not having normal temps. https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/11/17/the-north-pole-is-an-insane-36-degrees-warmer-than-normal-as-winter-descends/?utm_term=.6f219feeae89
Scientists are increasingly using adjectives like surprising, astonishing, and even in this article insane.
What happens in the arctic is affecting the jet stream. http://globalnews.ca/news/2754239/warming-arctic-affects-jet-stream-linked-to-melting-greenland-ice-study/
You can watch it here https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic/loc=-5.278,-8.472 It has gone all wobbly and our temps above or below normal track the wobbles of the jet stream. These wobbles have not yet had much effect on your part of the world, but I suspect they will.
Even more worrisome however is that a warming arctic is already releasing frozen methane from the permafrost and continental shelves. Lots of methane there. Lots and Lots. “In the first two decades after its release, methane is 84 times more potent than carbon dioxide.”
Meanwhile what warming we are having is already raising sea level and island nations are surely more vulnerable to this than the wheat and corn belt of the US.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/10/151021104913.htm
Any time you focus on just one part of the world or just one facet of climate change you are naturally not seeing the whole picture. And famine in any part of this interconnected world affects all parts of the world.
Projections for how fast climate change will progress are continually having to be re-assessed as the planet doesn’t follow our charts, especially the very conservative UN projections. Climate feed backs are not part of those projections. An ice free Arctic ocean for example, is a big deal. No longer is some incoming solar radiation reflected by white, rather it is absorbed. The heat used to melt ice is much more than the heat required to warm water, thus warming of the ocean will suddenly jump. It takes 85 calories to melt 1 gram of ice but only 1 calorie to warm 1 gram of water 1 degree. The change of state uses a lot more energy. Once the state is changed water warms with less energy input.
Davy no doubt you are right and I am beating my head against a wall. Maybe someone else will find my links informative.
Of course if you don’t want to know that its all over – we ruined the only planet we have to live on – well as I heard James Corbett say the other day “cognitive bias is one hell of a drug”. Of course that wasn’t about climate change and he is a denier so he should pay attention to his own words. I am sure I have my own cognitive bias that affects my beliefs, but hey the arctic ice IS melting, even in winter for a while. That means something eh?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/12/20/forecast-north-pole-to-warm-50-degrees-above-normal-thursday-near-melting-point/?utm_term=.06884385e551
onlooker on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 1:59 pm
Personally, if someone were to ask me where is the best place to live to prepare for Collapse, I would say upper North America especially near the Great Lakes area. Abundant fresh water, the climate should become less forbiddingly cold ie. more temperate, will probably not be densely populated, good fertile land area and will not be overrun by hordes of people like the Eurasia land mass. So that is about the best place I can think of to hunker down
Kathy C on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 1:59 pm
Suddenly posts including my own are spreading out so far on the page that I can’t read all the words on the right. Anyone else having this problem?
onlooker on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 2:01 pm
I would add that in my opinion the most of the Southern Hemisphere is toast given its huge populations and the climate warming effects and lack of fresh water.
onlooker on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 2:01 pm
Yes Kathy had that problem just awhile ago.
Davy on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 2:07 pm
Kathy, this board has problems with large links. Try using tinyurl.com as needed with large links. Someday maybe the site owners will fix this but it has been like this now for a long time. It is really bad when I am on my IPHONE.
R1verat on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 2:08 pm
Kathy I hear ya & have drunk the climate change Kool-Aid. I am a community builder in my local area & we are now discussing if we should offer grief work in addition to sustainability issues to our community website. I personally live a very low key, permaculture based lifestyle. However I am not prepared to see my kids & grandkids face the dire issues that our finite resourced planet is predicted to experience.
I follow Guy McPherson. You may want to google him or his website, Nature Bats Last. Guy does not claim to be a so called expert but does compile info from those consider such.
Regardless if one believes in climate change or not, none of us will escape our eventual deaths. Guy encourages us all to “live a life pursuing excellence” & to appreciate the here & now. Excellent advice I believe!
Apneaman on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 2:18 pm
By Louis Arnoux: Twilight of the Oil Age: Out of Gas by 2022
“This analysis predicts we have between 6 and 13 years before society is out of gas.
This means that some time between 2022 and 2030, your gas stations and airports will be closed, and the global economy will be on its way to a complete collapse.”
https://undenial.wordpress.com/2017/01/13/by-louis-arnoux-twilight-of-the-oil-age-out-of-gas-by-2022/
BobInget on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 2:55 pm
The Forgotten (almost) Hydrocarbon …
(its not poisonous coal)
Spoiler alert: It’s natural gas…
NG TODAY can power just about everything but aircraft..
In a pinch, NG can be converted to oil and really clean kerosene, (jet fuel) as can dirty old coal.
Pipelines, in some case will need reversing.
LNG exports, just getting started, will be need curtailing. Flaring needs to stop.
Nitrogen ferts made with NG, not oil.
NG, for power generation along with wind and solar can desalinate water and extrude plastic pipe by the mile.
ONLY two countries, the US and Argentina have enough NG (shale) for the next 100 years.
Kathy C on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 3:15 pm
Riverat, I did years of blogging and even wrote some essays on Nature Bats Last. Had some issues with a sort of change in tone on the site so stopped blogging there. Guy is more right than most on climate change IMO. Not sure why he doesn’t therefore give up preaching, but well here I am preaching about climate change 🙂 But no one flies me to NZ to do that….
Davy thanks, I will try tiny urls, but your message about them had no urls and still ran past the edge.
Kathy C on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 3:16 pm
As did my message above
Maybe more hard returns
Shorter sentences?
Davy on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 3:25 pm
Kathy, all it takes is for one person to have a long link then the whole board is distorted from that point forward.
Apneaman on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 3:30 pm
Davy, since I have never seen it on any of the hundreds of other sites comment sections I have been in, I don’t see any reason to encourage the plebs to be doing cartwheels to fix the site owners issues. Maybe they could spend some of that ad revenue on hiring a technical troubleshooter?
Davy on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 3:46 pm
I agree, stupid to have to deal with these issues. A fix can’t be that technically challenging.
Cloggie on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 4:25 pm
Elmer 9:42 is the culpritt in making the thread unreadable.
Again, you can post links as long as you like as long it contains hyphens, it can use to wrap.
Don’t post long links without hyphens. In that case use tinyurl.com
makati1 on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 4:59 pm
Paulo, I have been here 9 years and do not see any problem with being here after the SHTF. Maybe your friend was an asshole who didn’t try to blend in? Or maybe he never lived where they accept anyone who is willing to be ‘one of them’? You did not elaborate.
Problems with neighbors can even happen in your native country. YOUR neighbors. When the going gets tough, the neighbors may look at you as dinner. Or certainly at your ‘stuff’ if you are a preper. I share my ‘stuff’ with my neighbors now. Friends who help each other are always welcome anywhere.
As for the government, yep, they are going to be able to track down all 100,000+ Americans living here, not to mention the million or so other foreigners living here, and what, export them? The government will be too busy trying to survive to go looking for an old American living 100 miles from the capital. LMAO
Sissyfuss on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 8:48 pm
Onlooker, stop outing me here in the mitten. I have lived in Fla,(too hot and crowded)Colorado,(too dry and crowded) and Oregon(too wet and crowded). Mittygan has 4 seasons(not much longer) and incredible natural beauty. I expect the Southwest to come for our water eventually courtesy of Enbridge.
GregT on Sat, 14th Jan 2017 10:09 pm
“Elmer 9:42 is the culpritt in making the thread unreadable.”
Thanks Cloggie, for ratting Elmer out.
Cloggie on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 4:56 am
Paolo says I just want to point out a big big item everyone has missed, though, and that is tribalism. Mak, I have a friend who married into a Phillipino family 30+ years ago. You know what? Beyond being a source of economic help for them and a great in-law, he is still an outsider and always will be. When times get tough, and obviously more localized, there will be a direct relationship to survival whether you are ‘one of the group’.
America has spent a century trying to convince the rest of the world that “racism” is wrong and should be abolished. The only reason why the US deep state promoted that message was because they wanted to pave the way for global governance, that is their governance (hi George!). Everybody should fit in their “Open Society” tax farm.
That’s not going to happen and America has destroyed itself in the process and will fall apart soon USSR-style, because now even fly-over country has enough of old-school America:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Awa1m_KmrKw
The Trump supporters no longer hesitate to swap “American” for “European-American” and soon they will drop the “American” label altogether. Just like Serbs and Croats no longer call themselves Serb-Yugoslavs or Croat-Yugoslavs.
Even Philippine bottom dwellers prefer to be among themselves and see intruders, even those western ones with money, as uncomfortable irritants. Mak should realize that if the financial bottom falls from under the West, he is on his own in the Ps. But like most leftist Americans, he believes his own egalitarian imperial “anti-racist” BS. If Mak is what he says he is, a European-American, he would be much better of in the Ozarks than in the Ps. Mak with his imperial dollars is basically little more than this:
https://stevehynd.files.wordpress.com/2010/07/stanley-portrait2.jpg
But once the dollar-empire says “poof” and the ATM in the Manila street says “game over”, he no longer is the closet imperial overlord but instead soup kettle material or Filet Américain.
Sudhir Jatar on Sun, 15th Jan 2017 5:14 am
If Russia has the upper hand, why should Putin have interfered with US elections? Does not seem logical.