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Page added on June 15, 2018
The Bullish And Bearish Case For Oil
Oil prices are in a holding pattern as we await the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting in a few days, and while the result of that meeting will almost completely control the direction of oil prices in the near-term, there is a bit of disagreement among analysts over the bigger picture in regards to the trajectory of oil prices going forward.
So, let’s take a look at two different outlooks, one bearish and the other bullish.
The bearish case
Oil prices have fallen back from $80 per barrel, the direct result of the market recalibrating to the likelihood of higher OPEC+ production in the second half of the year. Indeed, the single largest factor that could push prices down going forward would be a sizable increase in OPEC+ supply.
However, OPEC and Russia are not the only factors at play. A few other factors could help keep a lid on oil prices over the next year or so.
The first thing that comes to mind is soaring U.S. shale supply. The U.S. has added somewhere around 800,000 bpd since the start of the year, a staggering sum. Infrastructure constraints in the Permian are real, but so far they have not slowed down output. The EIA sees the U.S. adding another 80,000 bpd in June from a month earlier. In 2018, the U.S. could average 10.8 mb/d, but it won’t stop there. The EIA sees production skyrocketing by 1 mb/d to an average of 11.8 mb/d next year.
The bottom line is that the International Energy Agency expects oil demand to grow by 1.4 mb/d this year, but non-OPEC supply (mostly U.S. shale) will grow by 2 mb/d. Next year, the story is the same: demand grows by another 1.4 mb/d, and non-OPEC supply will grow by 1.7 mb/d. These numbers suggest that the U.S. and a handful of other non-OPEC countries will more than meet global demand.
Those numbers by themselves are sobering. Once you add in another 1 mb/d of potential OPEC+ production, the market starts to look well-supplied through next year. “While geopolitical tensions and lingering risks of large supply disruptions remain an upside risk through 2H18, we think that prices will be corrected downwards towards end of the year and remain capped in 2019,” JP Morgan wrote in a note. Related: Saudi Arabia: Deal To Gradually Ease Cuts Is ‘Inevitable’
There are also some risks to demand, not least of which is the recent run up in prices (the IEA revised down its demand figure in May by 100,000 bpd because of higher prices). The possibility of an economic slowdown, possibly from emerging markets, could weigh on demand growth. The past few months has seen currency upheaval in Argentina, Turkey and Brazil, among other places. Argentina just sought an IMF bailout and Brazil was temporarily crippled by nationwide strikes, spurred on by high fuel prices.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is hiking interest rates, which is putting pressure on indebted countries, making debt harder to pay off, particularly as their currencies weaken relative to the dollar. This is by no means a foregone conclusion, but an economic downturn could cut into demand. Bank of America Merrill Lynch said that it is conceivable that oil drops to $60 per barrel in 2019 because of emerging market dangers.
The bullish case
The case for higher oil prices is a bit more obvious. Global inventories are already back to their five-year average. OPEC+ has kept more than 1.8 mb/d of supply off of the market for the better part of 18 months.
But the outlook for higher oil prices comes down to the severe production outages in several places, with Venezuela front and center. The South American nation has already lost 350,000 bpd this year, and the declines are accelerating. Operations at PDVSA’s refineries and storage facilities in the Caribbean have been disrupted by ConocoPhillips, and the facilities in Venezuela are buckling under decrepit conditions.
Upgraders are being shut down and production – already in decline – will have to be curtailed because there isn’t enough storage, and in any event, the ports can’t handle the export volumes that PDVSA has promised its customers. That could lead to a declaration of force majeure. Ultimately, Venezuela’s production, which averaged 1.39 mb/d in May, is rapidly heading down to the psychologically important threshold of 1 mb/d. Who knows if it will stop there.
But supply disruptions loom elsewhere. Iran could lose 500,000 to 1 mb/d because of U.S. sanctions, although that scenario is subject to a great deal of uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports that two of Libya’s largest oil ports stopped loading oil this week because of clashes between rival groups. Years ago, instability and civil war knocked off much of Libya’s output. That has since been restored to around 1 mb/d, essentially double the levels from a year ago. But the latest clashes are a reminder that Libya’s output cannot be assumed.
Nigeria is also seeing lower exports because a key pipeline has been shuttered. Reuters estimates that Nigeria’s oil exports could plunge from just under 1.8 mb/d in June to just 1.43 mb/d in July. Force majeure on Bonny Light remains in place.
OPEC+ will likely increase output, but higher production might not even offset these outages. A modest increase from Saudi Arabia and Russia might be swamped by major disruptions, especially if they occur all at once.
The only thing preventing oil from going to $100 per barrel or higher is the prospect of a wave of U.S. shale. Indeed, the forecasts are impressive, but what if U.S. shale can’t live up to the hype? For at least the next year or so, pipeline bottlenecks in the Permian could restrain production growth. The Permian pipelines are essentially filled to the brim, and discounts for Midland crude are painfully large. It is unclear how this will play out, but if U.S. shale undershoots, the oil market could find itself short on oil.
That becomes a serious problem when OPEC uses up a lot of its spare capacity. Raising output now could keep the market well-supplied, but it comes at the expense of spare capacity, which could drop to dangerously low levels over the next year.
“Now it’s getting interesting,” hedge fund manager Pierre Andurand told the Wall Street Journal earlier this month. “We are in the middle of a multiyear bull run,” he said. “We could see $100 oil this year…$150-plus in 2020-2021.”
By Nick Cunningham of Oilprice.com
42 Comments on "The Bullish And Bearish Case For Oil"
Davy on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 6:58 pm
This might be bearish:
“Here Is The Stunning Reason Why Treasury Yields Blew Out In April”
https://tinyurl.com/yb7pcbvz
“It was Vladimir Putin that decided to puke the most US Treasuries out of Russia ever, liquidating half, or $47.4 billion, of its US Treasuries in one month, to its lowest holdings since March 2008! Put another way – Russia just liquidated half its US Treasury holdings in one month! Source: Treasury And what happened in April? Mystery solved! Russia was dumping half of everything it had ($48bn) and yields on the 10Y rose around 35bps. One can’t help but wonder – as the Yuan-denominated oil futures were launched, trade wars were threatened, and as more sanctions were unleashed on Russia – if this wasn’t a dress-rehearsal, carefully coordinated with Beijing to field test what would happen if/when China starts to really liquidate.”
Davy on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 7:25 pm
This might be bearish:
“How Batteries Went From Primitive Power to Global Domination”
https://tinyurl.com/y996ptar
https://tinyurl.com/y9hrumcu
https://tinyurl.com/yawscvr7
“Electric vehicles reached 50 percent of lithium-ion demand in 2016, although it inched past consumer electronics for the first time the year prior, according to Avicenne data. With electric-vehicle sales rising and demand for smartphones slowing, the gap will only grow wider. “One million cars consume the same amount of lithium-ion batteries as everything else,” Pillot said.”
“Falling costs will bring more batteries onto electrical grids as well as homes that have solar panels and buildings seeking backups during power outages. BNEF forecasts more than $100 billion will be invested in energy storage by 2030, transforming how grids operate. “As the scale of the capacity and the whole supply chain for lithium-ion has increased, the costs have come way down,” said Stephen Coughlin, chief executive officer of Fluence, a joint venture of AES Corp. and Siemens AG that deploys storage for the grid. “We in the electric sector have benefited from all of this investment.”
Outcast_Searcher on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 10:48 pm
Davy, the coming shift to BEV’s will likely take several decades. Let’s not pretend that in the short term, a relative handful of EV sales will meaningfully impact demand when the number of ICE’s being added to the global fleet annually totally DWARFS the amount of BEV’s sold.
In other words, long term yes, but short term, not so much.
Makati1 on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 10:52 pm
Outcsst, I suspect the collapse of the Western financial system is going to end most of the “alternate” projects and products long before any of them become significant.
Davy on Fri, 15th Jun 2018 10:54 pm
OS, just hosting some news. I think the point of that article was how lithium batteries are leveling off with electronics but coming on strong with other applications especially EV’s. I think you know my opinion on the subject I have posted many time just what you said.
print baby print on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 6:35 am
Davy sorry this topic is very interesting and you skipped it instantly I think it deserve more comments > Can anyone tell me how much condensate ( shall oil ) the global market can consume because as we know it is not real stuff.So there can be very big restriction in shale production .
print baby print on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 6:39 am
also your first comment was excellent and interesting
JuanP on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 6:58 am
Russia, China, Japan, and Irelandsold significant amounts of US treasuries last month. Is this the beginning of a global trend? As the US economy becomes increasingly unsustainable and US foreign policy increasingly unhinged, the world continues to turn its back on the collapsing American Empire.
https://www.rt.com/business/429931-russia-sells-us-treasuries/
rockman on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 1:25 pm
Baby – “Can anyone tell me how much condensate ( shall oil ) the global market can consume because as we know it is not real stuff.” Are you new to this site? I’m sure most here are as tired of me repeating myself as I am. But as long as folks like you keep repeating this nonsense I’m forced to. I gather you have done no research and are just repeating ignorant statements of others. First, light oil/condensate from the shales IS REAL OIL. You might start your research with the definition of “oil”: petroleum as it comes from the ground, before refining. Of course, now you need to look up the definition of “petroleum”. I’ll leave that up to you.
So not only is the condensate from the shales “real oil” it is also absolutely vital to the US refining industry. More then 50% of our domestic production and imported oil is less then 30 API gravity. Our refineries are optimal processing 32 API…and have been for many years. More DOCUMENTED info from the EIA if you bothered to search for the info. The light oil/condensate is REQUIRED to bring the gravity of the BLENDED OIL we refine to the correct API weight. Again the stats are all there on the EIA website: prior to the shale boom US refineries had to IMPORT large volumes of light oil/condensate to make the necessary blended oil.
Speaking of US imports the 1+ BILLION BBLS of imports we get from Canada every year would not happen without the light oil/condensate that is BLENDED with the oil sands production that allows it to be pumped thru pipelines. But even this dilbit would be processed by our refineries. At 23 API the dilbit is still to heavy and needs to be blended WITH MORE light oil/condensate to increase its gravity to 32 API.
And speaking of exports this is also the reason why eastern Canadian refineries have paid big bucks to ship Eagle Ford Shale production half way around the country to BLEND with their heavy oil imports. Those refineries also require the same blending of their heavy oil imports as do ours. And speaking of shipping light oil/condensate half way around the world Venezuela has purchased such production from north Africa to blend with its heavy crap.
I’ve posted this same long explanation on this site no less than a dozen times. And the facts have never been disputed and for good reason: this are all well documented facts. But check them out for yourself if you want. I nearly always use the EIA as the primary source. You’re free to spend hours and hours mining thru its very well documented data bases.
rockman on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 2:10 pm
Such a silly effort to make such a distinction IMHO. As usual no context…especially when viewed over time. The oil market is in the bull mode and has been since the early 2000’s. Sure: short term ups and downs since then still in a full scale bull charging mode IMHO.
Lots of examples but to save space let’s look at Chevron. During the early 2000’s it floated around the mid $20’s to mid $30’s per share. But then the bulls took control and the price has floated from the $70’s to $110’s per share. This also reflects the fact that the price of oil has been significantly about the historical average (even today) for the last 10+ years. Yes: Chevron shareholders to a big hit when prices fell from $130+/share to $90/share. Yes: $90/share…“just” 3X as much as it was trading for 10 years earlier.
As a long-term Chevron investor that understood the bulls driving the oil market for the last 15 years the Rockman didn’t lose any sleep when the stock fell in 2014. Just another buying opportunity in the middle of a continuous bull stampede: those $86 shares have increased in value about 40%.
Run bull, run! Run right over that napping bear. LOL.
print baby print on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 2:34 pm
Dear Rockman Iam not expert in this matter but I can tell you Iam watching staff about peak oil for 20 years . There were some expert here like short on oil which gave some exact data I am asking the questions because I think Iam on the right place so I can not do the research for every thing on my own. Shale oil is not the real stuff I know and you know . It is not even worth it digging it is only possible because of the thin air money but anyway I dont mind I like the things remain bau better than collapse which is imminent by the way it is just a matter of time. I dont have intention to explain that to anybody because who is not certain about collapse so far will never be ( lacky bastard hahahahha)
print baby print on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 2:44 pm
And about stocks shares and those things I dont even want to talk , yes some people make big money but it is al unnatural . Those things dont have anything with reality any more King salman fart stokcs up 10% attack on Syria stocks up 10% and so on and so on . What is important is EROI all other things are pure economist bull shit , that is my opinion but time will tell Sorry if you are economist I am lawyer and I can tell you it is a bull shit too, to be honest. You know it I know it everybody knows it but we pretend that are not ok let it be
print baby print on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 2:49 pm
and sorry about EIA everything they were talking last 20 years were a bull shit , recently they started to admit some obvious facts So I dont read anything they say it doesent make any sence I have a brain not to big but it is still here hahahhaha When someone talk lies for 20years I simply dont trust him even if he say a true from time to time
Anonymous on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 3:28 pm
Print baby print:
Most of the growth in shale oil in last 3 years (Permian and Bakken) has been in the 40-45 API gravity range. This is classic WTI (light sweet crude oil) and is actually what peakers were worried we would not have ENOUGH of (back 10 years ago when they knew about tar sands).
45+ or even 50+ oil (“condensate”) took a big DROP after the 2014-15 price crash because the Eagle Ford dropped 500,000 bopd. So shale production actually got heavier during this time. However, during the last few months, Eagle Ford has resumed slow growth. Also the eastern Delaware (subbasin of the Permian) has had some lighter grades come in. We are still not up to the amount of ultralight oil that we had in early 2015 however but getting close.
Whole thing is not that extreme an issue as oil can be readily exported and is useful. The bigger issue is pipe connectivity out of the Permian, out of Cushing, and even deepwater dock space for export. Geographical basis differnces because of infrastructure bottlenecks are much more extreme than changes in the quality basis.
If you look at world pricing, light sweet crude (~38 to 45, low sulfur) remains the premium material. That’s right. Despite what you hear from peakers, it is the best stuff as proved by price. The most that has happened is very small changes to the advantage that WTI/Brent had. But they are still on top.
Note that this is true for the large world market and even the US market (which has more light sweet imbalance. Yes, even in the US, 40-45 oil gets the best price. The daily crude bulletins from Plains, Flint Hill, etc. all show this clearly.
BTW, the EIA publishes a spreadsheet that gives % US oil by API gravity:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/production/
(scroll down to the eighth spreadsheet on the right, called historical record of oil by API gravity).
If you do the analysis, you will find that 13% of lower 48 oil was above 50 API in JAN2015. Now (MAR15, most recent data) only 9% of this oil is above 50 API. Even if you are more extreme and look at 45+, you will find that 25% of US oil was above 45 gravity in JAN2015 and now only 22% of the oil is above 45 API gravity. [However, because US production has grown, the physical amount of 45+ oil is about equal now to JAN15. But the amount of 50+ oil was still clearly more in JAN15, even on an absolute, not percentage basis.]
Note that “lease condensate” and “crude oil” are the same thing. Lease condensate is just the oil from a well that “mostly makes gas” and crude oil is the oil from a well that mostly makes oil. Oil is a complex mix of thousands of organic hydrocarbons. It differs from area to area. The difference between lease condensate and WTI (classic oil) can be less than the difference from WTI to heavy oils. In any case, it is a complex mix of stuff…not a defined pure chemical substance.
The Federal government treats them exactly the same in terms of export law. And most states (ND, PA, etc.) have no distinction in terms of record-keeping or taxation. It’s all “oil” to them. Just the stuff from gas wells is lighter in density and…color. Texas actually differentiates in their taxation but it’s a subtle and slight difference anyway, even on the $$. And it is defined not by some physical measurement but by how much gas versus oil is generated (which can even change over time).
Note that NGLs are a whole different kettle of fish from lease condensate (purity products, gases at room temp, etc.) However, peakers are often ignorant of this basic fact. Despite having spent years of their lives doing amateur oil analysis. This is more an issue with the peakers than the hydrocarbons! 😉
coffeeguyzz on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 3:47 pm
Great explanation, Nony.
Anonymous on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 4:02 pm
No worries, coffee. You do have to wonder how someone can spend 20 years on the Internet reading about peak oil and not know basic things like this though.
P.s. Did you see ND was up 60,000 bopd and in kissing range of a new record? So much for the peakers who said Bakken was over.
Davy on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 5:19 pm
I second that nony, I appreciate the detail.
Anonymouse1 on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 6:11 pm
RoFL, “coffeeguyzz” is (one) of nonytards sock, dumbasses.
GregT on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 6:50 pm
Hey Nony,
In your opinion, what do you see happening first:
A: Economic depression, or even collapse, from continuing to amass exponentially growing mountains of debt,p in large part due to the oily stuff that our economies can no longer afford?
OR
B: A catastrophic runaway greenhouse event from continuing to burn the oily stuff that our economies can no longer afford.
Anonymous on Sat, 16th Jun 2018 8:19 pm
A for sure. But I don’t think it is energy driving the debt behavior. It is just a natural proclivity of modern welfare states.
B. Climate change is happening too (in terms of physics of radiation), but is a very slow moving train and a lot of the warming is “in the pipeline” (i.e. will happen over time because of the CO2 already in air…but takes a while to show up because of the thermal lag in the ocean). So figure 50+ years for significant changes. Even these will not be catastrophic since there is so much time to adjust (such a slow change going on).
print baby print on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 7:08 am
Nony could you please be so kind and name one refinery in the world which can use pure shale oil and make full spectrum of oil products
print baby print on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 7:09 am
And if it is such a great stuff why there is no rush for it all over the world something is not wright what do you think hahahhah
print baby print on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 7:18 am
Nony your story is for kids sorry and goverment story and EIA but anyone can belive What does he wants to belive
Anonymous on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 7:36 am
Print:
The value is shown by price. By people stepping up and putting their money out for it. Right now, 40-45 API sweet oil gets priced at a premium over heavier (or lighter) grades:
https://www.plainsallamerican.com/getattachment/ba016253-29d7-4a05-b185-dee2ef292535/2018-115-June-15-2018.pdf?lang=en-us&ext=.pdf
In terms of refineries running straight shale crude, you can look at either the Permian or the Bakken for small refineries running straight 40-45 diet. Diesel is a major product (in demand in the oil fields for trucks and equipment). Many overseas refineries run on lighter slates also.
FWIW, I worked at a refinery running 39.5 API oil. Purchased Bakken was 42, so almost a match. We made lots of gasoline (sold on the NY market), diesel (of varying sulfur grades), jet fuel, and RFO as well as propane and butane (with huge storage tanks for the last two as the demand is seasonal). We also opportunistically sold fractions like naphtha or gasoil (a heavy split on the column).
Refinery was medium-high complexity, built in early 70s. Mostly hydrocracking. Had a vis-breaker for heavy ends, but not a coker. Had been running heavier slate (about 32) but made strategic choice to change to lighter slate based on the advantaged price of US crude as well as the lower maintenance (we thought) in running a lighter, sweeter grade…and keeping it consistent.
We did blend (as almost all refineries do) with Basra (~30 API medium grade and lower than what we wanted) or with Eagle Ford 47. It is very rare for a large refinery to run a straight crude diet (especially at a coast) since they make money on the spread of crude and products and you want to be able to opportunistically buy cheap cargoes that are looking for a home.
Davy on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 7:44 am
more excellent Nony detail…keep it coming. There are people here talking out their ass but as in your case we see the detail that is from experience.
Ugly Canadian anti-American Weasel, how that for a number?
print baby print on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:05 am
This was good nony thank you , but common sense say something is not all right we are scraping the bottom of the barell it simply can not be as good as Ghawar . EROI tell you everything Ghawar 100 to 1 Shale 3 to 1 UNSUSTANABLE. And yes people investing money and they will be skimmed . Some will earn hahahah its always like that
print baby print on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:07 am
and sorry small refinery send it further for processing it is not final product
print baby print on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:09 am
And sorry shale is not 42 api more like 32 its good only for blending
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:09 am
Delusional Davy “There are people here talking out their ass but as in your case we see the detail that is from experience.
Ugly Canadian anti-American Weasel, how that for a number?”
More bullying from the absolutely repulsive American exceptionalist. With Americans like this how can anyone like America, particularly when most other Americans condone his behavior with their silence. If Americans wish to be respected by the rest of the world they need to stand up to American bullies like Davy. Joe did and he earned my respect!
Free Speech Forum on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:14 am
The elites love socialism because they want the 99% weakened and dead.
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-billionaire-buffett-praises-socialist-sanders-but-sticks-with-clinton-2015-9
The police state doesn’t protect you. Tyranny helps the elites meet their private prison quotas.
The elites want you to lose your free speech rights and gun rights so you can’t resist.
The elites want you to lose your 4th amendment rights so they can wiretap and frisk you and take your property through asset forfeiture.
The elites want you lose your right to a trial so they can torture and kill you.
Taxation is theft. Quit if you don’t like low pay and don’t buy dangerous food if you don’t like it.
You don’t have to buy from anyone. You don’t have to work at any particular job. You don’t have to participate in any given relationship. You can choose.
The big difference between private business and tyranny is that you can boycott the free market, but the government forces you at gunpoint to do something or not do something.
The USSR failed.
http://www.businessinsider.com/a-chilling-look-inside-a-soviet-gulag-2015-3
The elites control Hollywood, the media, Wall Street, and the government.
Almost nothing major happens in the US without the approval of the elites.
Debt benefits the elites.
Nanny state laws help our overlords meet their private private quotas.
There are wars because the 1% owns the defense companies and they want more refugees to reduce wages.
There are food stamps because the 1% owns the food corporations and makes money from the bank fees.
https://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/12/companies-benefit-from-food-stamps_n_1878457.html
The ruling class supports Obamacare and mandatory liability insurance laws because they make money from insurance premiums.
The elites support illegal immigration because they want to divide the population.
The 1% supports homosexuality because immorality weakens the US.
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt1748122/?ref_=nm_flmg_wr_7
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0467406/
https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0879870/
https://us.benetton.com
When was the last time you saw a movie about the Bill of Rights, freedom, or family values?
Why are immorality, blacks, and illegal immigrants praised, but morality and white men are ridiculed?
http://miami.cbslocal.com/2015/07/15/emotional-caitlyn-jenner-accepts-ashe-courage-award-at-espys/
http://dailycaller.com/2018/05/17/cnn-ana-navarro-illegal-immigrants/
http://dailycaller.com/2018/05/02/chris-cuomo-santorum-catholic/
https://www.al.com/news/birmingham/index.ssf/2015/01/white_genocide_billboard_poste.html
http://www.businessinsider.com/gary-johnson-syria-aleppo-what-is-2016-9
http://www.businessinsider.com/trump-supporters-star-wars-rogue-one-boycott-2016-12
What if the reason the 99% are not in concentration camps now is because the US Ponzi economy has not collapsed yet and Americans still have guns?
http://markanderson.bangordailynews.com/2017/09/24/opinion/is-the-u-s-economy-one-big-ponzi-scheme/
Why is anyone who supports immorality, war, debt, welfare, tyranny, and illegal immigrants is labeled normal, but anyone who supports morals, peace, a balanced budget, personal responsibility, freedom, and reduced immigration is called a spammer, troll, shill, bot, racist, junkie, retard, or nutjob and is censored, banned, gets an IRS audit, is arrested, or killed?
http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/blog/bs-md-ben-carson-irs-20131003-story.html
http://www.nj.com/jjournal-news/index.ssf/2015/12/2_secaucus_men_arrested_for_ha.html
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/snowden-prosecuting-reality-winner-threat-free-press-article-1.3226668
The elites don’t care if the US collapses because they live in gated compounds with security guards on private islands, go to private schools, and have private jets to fly them to private airports.
Freedom is not your enemy. Tyranny is the enemy.
Wake up.
Think.
Pass the word.
print baby print on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:20 am
Of course its on you to stand for something which bringsyou money I understand that
Anonymous on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:37 am
“And sorry shale is not 42 api more like 32 its good only for blending”
Where are you getting your information from? Are you just babbling? First you said it was too light, now you want to say it is heavier than I said. You do realize that the API gravity scale is INVERSE, right? Higher numbers indicate lighter grades.
P.s. Bakken is about 42 and very consistent. Permian varies a little now (given Delaware development) but also averages lower 40s. Eagle Ford varies from location to location but is about 47-48 average. OK (SCOOP/STACK) is mid 40s. CO (Niobrara) varies and is a bit lighter. Has about half of its production in the 40s and half in the 50s.
It is not perfect, but you can tell a lot by looking at the state data by API gravity:
https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=30852
(More detail is available in the EIA Excel spreadsheet I told you about earlier. Did you open it?)
Anonymous on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:43 am
“Of course its on you to stand for something which bringsyou money I understand that”
I am not currently working in oil/gas. Am in a different industry. This is just internet discussion and amateur analysis for me.
print baby print on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:47 am
Thank you nony for trying to explain things but that point I have passed long time ago. I asked A specific question ( which is very dificult) I must admit > No I dont open EIA or goverment sheets I stoped long time ago. We all have brains so we deduct our reasonable conclusion . Thank you anyway I understood that you wanted to help me . I wanted to say that is much lighter much lighter maybe I mixed up numbers but it doesnt matter I am sure you understood me well
print baby print on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:51 am
Unfortunately I dont have enough time to do more research for myself but I am very good in concluding the things
print baby print on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 8:54 am
To sum up this article There will always been bulls and bears hahhaha cheers
Anonymous on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 3:07 pm
No worries, pbp.
FWIW, here is the US C&C export volume over time:
(I have selected the 4 week average to reduce the “spikiness” that is a result of individual vessel departures.)
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=wcrexus2&f=4
What you can see is this (time vs export level in millions bpd)
prior to JUN 2014: less than 0.1
DEC2014: 0.4
DEC2015: 0.5
DEC2016: 0.5
JUN-JUL2017: 0.8
OCT-DEC2017: 1.6!
MAY-JUN2018: 2.0!
Just to put that in context, the world export market for oil is about 35-40 million bopd (the total production is a little over 80, but about 50% is consumed internally by countries producing them).
So US exports are about 5% of the total global market. That is not tiny. That is something people notice. US shale is not some strange oddity. It is something that world refiners are familiar with, have tested, and view as just one more commercial option for their facility. US shale has become a known phenomenon.
rockman on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 10:33 pm
A – Nice effort but I assume you’ve realized you’re wasting your time with the baby. Anything you explain that differs from anything shortonoil has posted is obviously bullshit.
As the great Texas comedian once said: “You can’t fix stupid”. Or as the Rockman has said before: trying to teach pigs to roller skate is pointless. It only frustrates you and pisses the pigs off. LOL.
JuanP on Sun, 17th Jun 2018 11:58 pm
Rockman, I followed this dialogue and wondered along the same lines you did, but decided to hold my tongue because I already posted too many negative comments elsewhere on the board these past couple of days. It was a nice try on A’s part, but like we say in Uruguay “Like feeding daisies to pigs”, meaning it was a complete waste, unfortunately.
print baby print on Mon, 18th Jun 2018 12:28 am
First Nony thank you on your eforrt but really you are wasting your time . The shale ponzi will be remember what it really was a devastating scheme which temporarily gave some relief , and I am glad because of the 10 -15 extra years .I never said that shale condesate didnt ad to the volume in our disagreement only the time will tell who was wright
Rockman and Juan I can see you are native english and you are here to scare away all others with your wtf lol miao fao frs shity comments and you manage it because none want s to waste time with you but remember people are reading and they have brains and not all of them are brain washed like you think they are I have finished conversation with you I dont have time for your babling sorry
Davy on Mon, 18th Jun 2018 4:43 am
“Just to put that in context, the world export market for oil is about 35-40 million bopd (the total production is a little over 80, but about 50% is consumed internally by countries producing them). So US exports are about 5% of the total global market. That is not tiny. That is something people notice. US shale is not some strange oddity. It is something that world refiners are familiar with, have tested, and view as just one more commercial option for their facility. US shale has become a known phenomenon.”
Nony I was one of your critics a few years ago but shale has proven a phenomenon. It is also an economic commodity which puts it in a different category as a resource in regards to economic decline. Renewables are likewise economic meaning we need strong growth and other variables to drive their production. This strong growth is related to global central bank health with low rates and economic liquidity. It is related to global growth which is currently not assured but something most everyone considers a constant. None of this is certain but as we are now it is a force and peakers were wrong in so many ways in regards to this resource. You have provided a valuable contribution in this regard. I was many times wrong in regards to this phenomena but always open to what you said.
print baby print on Mon, 18th Jun 2018 9:21 am
Yes Davy it gave us some more time but unfortunately we will use it to by more gas guzzlers . Davy dont forget EROI 3;1 enough said