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Page added on January 1, 2020
The 2020 oil risk nobody is talking about
One New Year’s resolution to make: Do not take the price of oil for granted.
As we head into a new decade, complacency about the low price of oil is running rampant. This complacency is dangerous because it may catch U.S. businesses by surprise if oil were to experience a sharp upward move. Potentially this could cause a shock to the U.S. economy, mainly because we are not prepared for it and are not taking protection seriously.
| Ticker | Security | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | UNITED STATES OIL FUND L.P. | 12.81 | -0.08 | -0.62% |
There are reasons why many people do not fear higher oil prices in 2020 or in the years ahead. Some point to record U.S. oil production, which averaged 12.3 million barrels a day in 2019. Others point to a potential end to the OPEC, Russia and another producer alliance that led the group to reduce global supply by 2 percent by taking 1.2 million barrels per day off the market for the first six months of 2019. Others are predicting that global oil demand in the new year will fall due to alternative fuel usage and we may be seeing the beginning of a global peak for oil demand by the end of this new decade.
Despite this perception of slowing demand, crude prices are quietly having the best year since 2016. And while prices for oil are down from the highs we have seen in recent years, the outlook going forward is still quite impressive. Even though we have seen a surge in electric cars and a push for alternatives, oil demand globally in 2019 hit a record high. Even amid the U.S.-China trade war, China imported and consumed a record amount of oil.
U.S. energy production hit records last year and should again in 2020. Yet most are not paying attention to the warning signs that U.S. production might peak this year. For example, the U.S. oil rig count rang out the old year with the first drop since 2016. The drop is a potential precursor to a production plateau. Baker Hughes released its final rig count for the year and decade, and it ended on a cautionary note. They reported that total oil and gas rig count is down 26 percent from a year ago at 278 rigs. Oil rigs fell by eight per week and gas rigs held steady at 125.
| Ticker | Security | Last | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNG | UNITED STATES NATURAL GAS FUND LP UNIT (POST REV SPLIT) | 16.86 | -0.04 | -0.24% |
This reflects the largest issue of pain in the oil patch. Fifty energy companies filed for bankruptcy during the first nine months of 2019, including 33 oil and gas producers, 15 oilfield services companies and two midstream companies, according to Haynes and Boone’s Energy and Restructuring Practice Group. Overall investment in energy and oil has plunged so expectations that U.S. oil production will easily meet demand and cover risk factors are too optimistic.
There is no doubt that electric cars are going to be a part of the energy mix in the future. The thought that we can replace the internal combustion engine with electric cars is ludicrous. While many think electric cars are environmentally clean, the reality is that for every source of energy, there is a potential environmental downside. Just think about the mining of lithium and cobalt and the production of energy it is going to take to make and supply batteries. Then, stop and think about what it is going to take to charge up those millions of electric cars. Try to fathom the impact on the power grid not just here in the U.S. but in the developing world where most of the auto demand growth will happen.
Oil prices also seem immune to geo-political risk at this time. In September, there was an attack on Saudi Arabian oil facilities. Yet the quick recovery of production and the fact that the Saudis seemed not to retaliate gave the market a false sense of geopolitical event invincibility. While this event did not cause a long-term price concern, there are signs that the risks to supply have not gone away. This week the U.S. carried out airstrikes against Iranian-backed Shiite militia groups in Iraq and Syria, which in turn was met with protests in Bagdad.
Even so, President Trump stood firm and blamed Iran for the unrest in Iraq.
The situation in Venezuela is also a geopolitical risk not to mention the old standby worries about North Korea.
All of this comes as we head into 2020 on a wave of economic optimism. Not only did the recession that many predicted last year not happen, but it also appears that the global economy will get a boost of growth as the U.S. and China work out their trade differences with the phase one agreement expected to be signed at the White House on January 15.
This wave of economic growth should cause oil demand to surge in 2020. That should lead to a much tighter physical market.
So get prepared for potentially higher prices in 2020.
106 Comments on "The 2020 oil risk nobody is talking about"
print baby print on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 3:49 am
Excellent article
One important link missing. Tariff war is only a speculation to reduce consumption of oil, peak demand another bullshit story . We are playing a game on a very thine rope , but our politicians are virtuous artists .
Of course sorry Clogg about all that coal under the oceans and oil on Mars .
Sissyfuss on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 7:56 am
There seems to be a disconnect between Middle East violence and the price of crude. Perhaps that shows the weakness of OPEC.
Duncan Idaho on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 11:27 am
The 2010s were a lost decade for climate.
Like all the ones before it.
peakyeast on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 1:09 pm
In Denmark 2019 about 5500 EV cars sold and about 225000 ICE cars. Ice car sale up 7500 cars from last year while EV cars are back a little above 2015 levels after going to almost 0. The subsidies are being reduced from 2020 and phased completely out in 2023 which explains the “high” sales in 2019.
Cloggie on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 2:12 pm
Netherlands: continuous growth e-vehicles
https://nederlandelektrisch.nl/actueel/verkoopcijfers
E-fleet: 180,000
Growth 2019: 40,000 (twice 2018)
Public charging stations: 50,500
Total # of cars in NL: 8.5 million
Growth e-cars full electro (FEV) only, hybrids no growth.
Robert Inget on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 2:51 pm
Do expect fuel demand to continue to remain buoyant over mid term because of trends like this
Quote Tweet
Bloomberg
@business
· 7m
SUVs may have garnered a majority of U.S. auto purchases at the end of 2019 for the first time https://trib.al/2NNnprL
Robert Inget on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 2:55 pm
Obvious problem, ICE Suv’s are selling well in China too.
Hundreds of fires made Australians true believers.
NEXT?
makati1 on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 4:53 pm
Sissyfuss, the ME is about Israel’s insane lust for control and the US’ desperate attempts to prevent the ascension of China and Russia onto the world center stage. Has little to do with oil, other then the US needs it and there is a lot there. The US has burned/sold/wasted most of its oil over the last century and now they will soon become a net buyer, not seller.
When the fraking fantasy finally collapse’, the US will go back to being a gross oil importer, IF it doesn’t slide into the 3rd world fast enough to drastically cut oil use. Then it will really be over for the empire and the Amerikan way-of-life.
Keep the mess in the ME, US and UE and out of Asia. 2020 is going to be an exciting year, I think. Pass the popcorn.
Robert Inget on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 5:10 pm
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50975494
WW/3 Updates.
Robert Inget on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 5:57 pm
That ‘frackin fantasy’ still has a few years remaining.
(sad to say) By the time SPR runs dry, it will be the end of exporting.
I agree w/everything, just about, Makati wrote.
My biggest concern remains President Trump.
He nor any of his current advisors have the faintest idea what they are doing around foreign policy.
So dangerous because they are so confident.
North Korea, insisting they matter.
Iranian extremists, itching for a fight.
Iraq government on the verge of failure.
Thinking BOTH the US and Russia have had enough of ME real-politic to last two generations. ISS apparently regrouping. With no where else to go,
male refugees rejoining DASH.
This latest development around Turkey, Libya, Saudi Arabia, etc. came to light because Trump’s “policies”
are led by self greed, disinformation and stupidity.
Robert Inget on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 6:08 pm
FULL REPORTAGE ON Iraqi Airport rocket attacks.
https://twitter.com/search?
q=%22Baghdad%20International%20Airport%22&src=trend_click
Looks like Trump will bomb Iran sooner than later.
If he does, the entire ME will go up in flames.
Davy on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 7:57 pm
“Iran’s Top Military Commander, Qasem Suleimani, Reportedly Assassinated In US Airstrike”
https://tinyurl.com/vypmmjm zero hedge
“There are even significant but as yet completely unconfirmed rumors, some coming from of a well-known BBC Iran reporter and other regional sources, that Iran’s most senior military commander, the IRGC’s Quds Force chief Qasem Suleimani was taken out in the hit, which appears to have been an airstrike.”
Duncan Idaho on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 8:32 pm
If he does, the entire ME will go up in flames.
This has been explained to the Fat Boy.
And Iran remains untouched.
Duncan Idaho on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 8:50 pm
Trump Is Clueless on Iran and North Korea
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/01/trump-north-korea-iran-clueless.html
To be fair, he is clueless about most things, so this is not a surprise.
Robert Inget on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 9:37 pm
Too late Duncan. Trump done lit the fuze.
The Pentagon confirmed, Iran’s chief general was targeted. (on Trump’s direct order)
I’m worried about Americans stationed in Iraq, Europe, the entire Middle East. All Americans are targets as of tonight. Americans held in Iranian prisons are totally screwed.
Iran HAS TO ANSWER.
Watch for back and forth oil field attacks, shipping.
The worst part? Trump’s plan, stay in power.
#1) Trump in no way consulted Congress for this act of war.
#2) Now, in no way will the Senate unseat a War President. (Trump, dumb like a fox)
Duncan Idaho on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 10:06 pm
Too late Duncan. Trump done lit the fuze.
Hint:
Iran is untouched.
Robert Inget on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 10:39 pm
Is Duncan saying since Iran was not bombed DIRECTLY everything is back to normal?
Events over the next few weeks, months unfolding
will tell the tale. We have no idea when, where, how
Iran will “retaliate”
[rəˈtalēˌāt]
VERB
‘make an attack or assault in return for a similar attack’.
Trump said New Years Eve, “war with Iran will be a short one”.
So he says.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Assassination_of_Archduke_Franz_Ferdinand_of_Austria
1914/1918 The war to end all wars. France and England thought fighting would end quickly.
Let’s not forget North Korea’s threats this week.
Are we prepared to fight two possible nuclear fronts?
How will an all out nuclear war affect the planet’s food supplies? Climate?
I can imagine Iran gathering all anti US nations
in a coalition whose aim will be to ruin the US economically.
Beginning, but not ending with a ‘run’ on USD.
If we lose USD as the world exchange currency
we, like Americans rotting in NK and Iranian prisons
will find ourselves isolated.
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/ForexCharts/dollarindex.php
Can’t tell who’s who w/o a program.
vex 3 on Thu, 2nd Jan 2020 10:40 pm
The knowledge you share really changes me in my life, I sincerely thank you for what you have done, surely your blog will help more people.
Theedrich on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 2:50 am
American elites are ignorant of other cultures. They like to fantasize that everyone in the world wants the same things they do, starting with “freedom.” Never mind that the vast majority of mankind has always chosen kings, dictators, emporers, despots and the like, and has no interest in living lives in which individuals have to make their own choices. Islam is a current example. For a millennium and a half they have opted for a primitive existence characterized by murder-enforced stupidity and slavery.
The desire of all the bovine ThirdWorlders to emigrate to the American Disneyland has nothing to do with “freedom.” It has to do only with the expectation of freebies of all kinds, due to Whitey’s “compassion” and suicidal “values.”
Meanwhile, the profiteering military-industrial complex seeks more warfare; it bribes Congresspigs to shovel more dollars its way. Likewise, the covert opioid providers mysteriously supply the masses (~32% of whom are functionally illiterate) with every form of stupefacient chemistry can invent, and the regime does nothing but bloviate about the disaster.
The Democrats are obsessed with extirpating Trump, and promise mythical gifts to all who vote for them. They are led by the “Catholic” witch, Nancy Pelosi, about whom the only interesting question is the name and address of her plastic surgeon. The Dems do not care that their actions are weakening the nation in the face of its adversaries like Iran and North Korea, let alone fentanyl-shipping China with its new Opium War against the Yankee populace.
The U.S. Constitution is dead, killed by Supreme Court judges who ignore it and substitute their own judgement in place of it. (See Professor Kevin R. C. Gutzman, J.D., Ph.D.’s The Politically Incorrect Guide to the Constitution.) Nothing is left of the old America except the outward shell, maintained by propaganda and money-printing.
After criminal wars waged against its own flesh and blood, America the insolvent zombie is headed into a permanent coma. If Germany can rid itself of the slavery imposed on it by the “indispensable” nation and eject Angela Sauer (aka Merkel), it can join with Россия and keep Western civilization from extinction.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 3:28 am
“Protests Follow German State Broadcast Showing Kids Singing About Grandmas Being “Environmental Pigs” For Eating Meat”
https://tinyurl.com/sk8e8xx summit news
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 3:51 am
“Military And Political Trends Of 2019 That Will Shape 2020”
https://tinyurl.com/wn8t3kr south front
“While the European Union is, theoretically, the world’s biggest economy using the world’s second most popular currency in international transactions, it remains to be seen whether, in the future, it will evolve into a genuine component of a multi-polar international system or become a satellite in someone else’s—most likely US—orbit. There still remain many obstacles toward achieving a certain “critical mass” of power and unity. While individual EU member states, most notably Germany and France, are capable of independent action in the international system, individually they are too weak to influence the actions of the United States, China, or even Russia. In the past, individual European powers relied on overseas colonial empires to achieve great power status. In the 21st century, European greatness can only be achieved through eliminating not just economic but also political barriers on the continent. At present, European leaders are presented with both incentives and obstacles to such integration, though one may readily discern a number of potential future paths toward future integration. Continued European integration would demand an agreement on how to transfer national sovereignty to some as yet undefined and untested set of European political institutions which would not only guarantee individual rights but, more importantly from the point of view of national elites, preserve the relative influence of individual EU member states even after they forfeited their sovereignty. Even if the Euro-skeptics were not such a powerful presence in EU’s politics, it would still be an insurmountable task for even the most visionary and driven group of political leaders. Such a leap is only possible if the number of EU states making it is small, and their level of mutual integration is already high. The post-2008 Euro zone crisis does appear to have communicated the non-sustainability of the current EU integration approach, hence the recent appearance of “two-speeds Europe” concept which actually originated as a warning against the threat of EU bifurcation into well integrated “core“ and a less integrated “periphery”. In practical terms it would mean “core” countries, definitely including Germany, France, and possibly the Benelux Union, would abandon the current policy of throwing money at the less well developed EU member states and, instead, focus on forging “a more perfect Union” consisting of this far more homogeneous and smaller set of countries occupying territories that, over a thousand years ago, formed what used to be known as the Carolingian Empire. Like US territories of the 19th century, EU states outside of the core would have to “pull themselves up by their bootstraps” to earn membership in the core, which would require them to adopt, wholesale, the core’s political institutions. The deepening disproportion of EU member state economies, and therefore sharpening economic disputes, are the main factor of instability in Europe. The long-delayed withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the union, which is finally expected to take place in 2020, might trigger an escalation of internal tensions over economic issues which might blow up the EU from the inside. Other cornerstones of European instability are the extraordinary growth of organized crime, street crime, radicalism, and terrorism, most of which were caused by uncontrolled illegal migration and the inability of the European bureaucracy to cut off the flows of illegal migrants, integrate non-radicalized people into European society, and detect all radicals and terrorists that infiltrate Europe with migrants. The situation is further complicated by the conflict in Ukraine and the destruction of international security treaties, such as the US withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty and its planned withdrawal from the New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty). These developments go amid constant military and political hysteria of micro-states and Poland instigated by the Euro-Atlantic elites. The EU bureaucracy is using this state of hysteria and ramping up speculations about a supposed military threat from Russia and an economic and political threat from China to distract the public and draw attention away from the real problems.”
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:09 am
“The EU bureaucracy is using this state of hysteria and ramping up speculations about a supposed military threat from Russia and an economic and political threat from China to distract the public and draw attention away from the real problems.””
Complete BS. Macron, the de facto foreign policy leader of the EU is pleading for far-going cooperation with Putin-Russia.
Germany is doing big business with Russia regarding North-Stream 2, that will be completed one way or the other.
All the populists want to turn to Russia.
Southfront is NOT Putin-Russia.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:13 am
“Dire” European Manufacturing Downturn Deepens In December”
https://tinyurl.com/rb5gh6s zero hedge
“In conclusion, “only households provided any source of improved demand in December, underscoring how the consumer sector has helped keep the economy out of recession in recent months. The ability of the wider economy to avoid sliding into a downturn in the face of such a steep manufacturing contraction remains a key challenge for the eurozone as we head into 2020.”
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:15 am
New Austrian conservative-green government coalition agreement in place, just as right-wing as the previous one, only more green.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jan/02/austrias-new-coalition-agrees-to-extend-school-headscarf-ban
“Austria’s new coalition agrees to extend school headscarf ban”
Borders remain closed, head-scarf ban at school. More room for green agenda.
Green-right government, even without populists. Exactly as I like to see it. No need for Euro-skeptic populists. The threat of populism is enough for the elites to rethink their multiculturalism.
Americans/British, the only enemies Europe has as long as ZOG is in place, and who love to see Europe falling apart, should worry about the state of their own country, which is FAR worse.
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:18 am
“helped keep the economy out of recession in recent months. The ability of the wider economy to avoid sliding into a downturn in the face of such a steep manufacturing contraction remains a key challenge for the eurozone as we head into 2020.”
Indeed there is no recession.
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2019/12/27/european-golden-decade-2010-2020/
It will be nevertheless economic downhill everywhere on the planet as everybody and his uncle are gearing up for WW3-CW2, that will terminate empire. We have bigger fish to fry than to look forward to the next black Friday: War.
print baby print on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:19 am
The oil supply must be far worse than anybody expected, otherwise the Trump wouldn’t pull this one.War with the Usa and Iran will come when Usa realize that can not hide the truth about oil supply any more, or if they try to make a nuke no third
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:20 am
“The wealth of the 500 richest people in the world grew by an astronomic 25% in 2019. Here are the billionaires who made the most money this year.”
https://tinyurl.com/rt3l4us business insider
“The world’s 500 richest people added $1.2 trillion to their collective net worths in 2019, according to Bloomberg.”
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:40 am
“U.S. Will Come To Regret Its Assassination of Qassim Soleimani”
https://www.moonofalabama.org/ moon of alabama
“Today the U.S. declared war on Iran and Iraq. War is what it will get. Earlier today a U.S. drone or helicopter killed Major General Qassim Soleimani, the commander of the Iranian Quds force, while he left the airport of Baghdad where he had just arrived. The Quds force is the external arm of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Soleiman was responsible for all relations between Iran and political and militant movements outside of Iran. Hajji Qassim advised the Lebanese Hisbullah during the 2006 war against Israel. He was the man responsible for, and successful in, defeating the Islamic State in iraq and Syria. In 2015 Soleimani traveled to Moscow and convinced Russia to intervene in Syria. His support for the Houthi in Yemen enabled them to defeat the Saudi attackers. Soleimani had arrived in Baghdad on a normal flight from Lebanon. He did not travel in secret. He was picked up at the airport by Abu Mahdi al-Muhandes, the deputy commander of the al-Hashd al-Shaabi, an official Iraqi security force under the command of the Iraqi Prime Minister. The two cars they traveled in were destroyed in the U.S. attack. Both men and their drivers and guards died.”
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:41 am
I imagine the US realized war in Iraq is in the offing and decided to take preemptive actions. This will of course not turn out a clear victory for the US but instead a new challenge in the ever-changing landscape of the region. This low-level war has been brewing for some time between the two powers with the US taking most of the hits surely with Soleimani’s guidance. Soleimani will be hard to replace because the guy was a brilliant commander tactically on the ground but especially with political and asymmetric warfare. We are likely heading for a balkanization of the region with Kurds, Sunni, and Shia zones of influence diverging. This was probably inevitable anyway with the US Iranian polarization. This surely will spark volatility in the oil sector.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:58 am
“Fear of a Major Mideast War”
https://tinyurl.com/ugprdhe consortium news
“The Pentagon said: “General Suleimani was actively developing plans to attack American diplomats and service members in Iraq and throughout the region. General Suleimani and his Quds Force were responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more.” Suleimani had been head of the Quds Force for 23 years. The Pentagon allegation is that he directed attacks on U.S. military during the U.S. illegal occupation of Iraq after its 2003 invasion. Suleimani was one of the men most responsible for defeating ISIS in Iraq and Syria. The sudden escalation of unpredictable tension brought about by this assassination came just days after the U.S. struck an Iranian-backed militia, which is part of the Iraqi military, killing more than 20 last week in Iraq. The U.S. said it was in retaliation for a rocket attack the group allegedly carried out earlier in Kirkuk that killed a U.S. contractor.”
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:58 am
Iran itself is too big to attack and not a logical option for the US so we see Iraq as the likely new battle ground. Iran has been advancing the regional battle with success. If Iraq/Syria will be the venue for war will it remain low level or escalate into a new dimension.
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 5:17 am
“Iran Vows Revenge After US Kills Top General In Baghdad Strike”
https://tinyurl.com/udp3loq IBT
“Analysts said the strike — which sent world oil prices soaring — would be a game-changer in the tensions between Iran and the US. “Trump changed the rules — he wanted (Soleimani) eliminated,” said Ramzy Mardini, a researcher at the US Institute of Peace. Soleimani “didn’t appreciate that his actions of threatening another hostage crisis at the (US) embassy changed the way things were going to be done,” Mardini said. Phillip Smyth, a US-based specialist in Shiite armed groups, described the strike as “the most major decapitation strike that the US has ever pulled off”. He told AFP it would have “bigger” ramifications than the 2011 US operation that killed Al-Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden and the 2019 American raid that killed Islamic State group Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. “There is no comparison,” Smyth added. The developments come after an unprecedented attack on the US mission in Baghdad. A mob of Hashed supporters surrounded the US embassy on Tuesday angered by American air strikes that killed 25 fighters from the network’s hardline Kataeb Hezbollah faction, which is backed by Iran. The US had acted in response to a rocket attack days earlier that had killed an American contractor working in Iraq. Trump had blamed Iran for a spate of rocket attacks targeting US forces as well as the embassy siege, saying: “They will pay a very BIG PRICE! This is not a Warning, it is a Threat.”
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 5:53 am
“Iran’s Deadly ’Shadow Commander’ General Qasem Soleimani Killed in U.S. Attack: A Major Thorn in America’s Side for Decades”
https://tinyurl.com/w9tvw63 military watch
“Soleimani was subsequently promoted to Major General by Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, and would lead Quds Force operations throughout the 2010s at a time of growing regional conflict and Iranian overseas involvement. Described in the U.S. as ‘the single most powerful operative in the Middle East today,’ or otherwise as ‘Iran’s very own Erwin Rommel,’ the general played an instrumental part in supporting the allied Syrian and Iraqi war efforts against Islamist insurgent groups – many of which were Western backed. Amid mounting losses faced by the Syrian Arab Army to jihadist groups, Soleimani was dispatched to the country to assume personal control of Iranian assets in the theatre including Iranian armed militias. These were key to ensuring the Syrian government’s survival. Operations were closely coordinated with Hezbollah, which intervened in the conflict in support of Damascus from 2013. Other than North Korea, these Iranian backed forces provided the only support for Syria’s war effort at this time. According to former CIA officer John Maguire, General Soleimani had played a key role in a number of Syrian and allied victories including the retaking of Qusayr from Al Qaeda linked militants. The General was a leading coordinator of the war effort, overseeing the training of new militias and playing a central role in coordinating a joint offensive with Syria and Russia from September 2015 after Moscow turned the tide of the war with its own military intervention. Soleimani was lightly wounded by militants in Syria in 2015, but went on to personally oversee operations alongside Syrian, Korean and Russian forces to recapture Aleppo from jihadist forces the following year. Soleimani at the same time oversaw the expansion of Iranian influence in Iraq, coordinating attacks by Iranian backed militias alongside government forces to contain and eventually push back against Islamic State jihadist militants. The killing of Soleimani represents one of the most significant victories of the Untied States and the Western Bloc in the Middle East in recent years, and marks the removal of a major thorn from the side of Western operations in the Middle East. Having overseen not only Hezbollah’s victory over Western backed Israeli forces in 2006, but also played a central role in undermining U.S. influence in Iraq and, perhaps most significantly, coordinating the Syrian war effort against Western backed militants in the country, the commander of Iran’s Quds Force has hindered Western designs for the Middle East for several decades, and particularly during the 2010s. How Iran will respond to the general’s loss, and whether the IRGC’s other commanders will be able to carry out his role with similar effectiveness, remains to be seen.”
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 6:20 am
“Neicons, the most intelligent people of the world”.ROFL
– Saddam volunteered to be the US useful idiot and started a war against Iraq but failed to defeat Iran:
https://images.app.goo.gl/ooduSBL6oYXt9Vyc9
– As a next step, the US decided to opt for direct rule of Iraq. In order to achieve that the Great Satan, by mouth of ambassador April Glaspie, suggested to Saddam that Iraq would get away with grabbing Kuwait. The sucker walked into the trap and the First Gulf War was a fact. Yet Bush1, who had replaced the more robust Reagan, on whose watch the soccer match Iraq-Iran had been orchestrated (after the humiliation of the US under Carter and hostage drama), didn’t have the nerve to finish the job.
– Clinton is next, the most complete puppet in US history (Bush2 would be worse, darkie Obama ironically less so). The Cold War was won and the US deep state=Kosher neocons could plot for a planetary power grab: PNAC. 9/11 was orchestrated by the Mossad to create the excuse to invade the ME, that is Iraq and Afghanistan, in order to encircle Iran and enforce regime change, the last big obstacle, short of Russia and China. The US army, essentially a paper tiger, did manage to overthrow Saddam, but failed to pacify Iraq and Afghanistan and was pushed back into the Green Zone, until today.
– The US, another name for failure, failed to overthrow Assad. Both Syria and Iraq are now effectively Iranian-Russian client states. Currently Iran feels strong enough to orchestrate a second hostage crisis, now in Baghdad.
– In Europe, Macron and the EU, smell that the US banana-boat is sinking and prepare to defect towards Macron’s “deeply European Russia”, away from “brain-dead NATO”. Russia loves it.
– Delusional Britain loves to think that an empire 2.0 is just around the corner, and volunteers to “escape” from the five star hotel EU, just because they don’t like the German-French furniture and volunteers to put its head under the no-deal guilliotine, installed directly at the entrance to the EU hotel.
– In the US meanwhile, ever more whites begin to realize that the zionist-sourced Great 1933 American Exceptionalist Dream, namely the entire world in their pocket, is not going to happen and that instead third world USA is going to be the very real reality. Shit happens. Americans need to reinvent themselves… on the rubble of CW2 first. Fortunately their older European Brothers are standing by to give a helping hand!
[insert vile natzi grin here]
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 8:18 am
[Inserts finger up ass-hole]
Robert Inget on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 9:11 am
Jared Yates Sexton
@JYSexton
·
12h
Replying to
@JYSexton
The natural move is to wrap the president in consensus and a veil of patriotism. Criticism of Trump could be portrayed as unpatriotic behavior. The Right will move to align support of Trump with support of military. This has been happening for centuries.
Be. Prepared.
Jared Yates Sexton
@JYSexton
·
12h
The fight against Trump has been exhausting. As someone who worked against the Iraq War I can tell you this: it’s about to get worse. Nationalism has a way of protecting authoritarian behavior. Trump’s base will grow more dangerous and political reality will shift.
Jared Yates Sexton
@JYSexton
·
12h
Fighting a president is different from fighting a war. Civil liberties are infringed. Free speech is endangered. And someone like Trump is going to make use of all the extralegal tools Bush and his cadre created.
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 9:59 am
Sulleiman was in Baghdad to oversee chasing the 5,000 remaining GIs out of Iraq. Trump acted with the back against the wall. Iran, backed by Russia and China, has all the cards. This could be precisely the occasion to lure the US into war… in order to finish off empire, to begin with in Baghdad and next KSA and next Egypt.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7847069/Rocket-attack-Baghdad-airport-kills-seven.html
Davy on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 12:17 pm
[head permanently implanted in asshole – must see docter for surgical removal]
Robert Inget on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 12:46 pm
US to deploy 3,500 additional troops to the Middle East
This won’t end soon. In fact it hasn’t really started.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/03/us-to-deploy-more-troops-to-the-middle-east-after-iranian-gen-soleimani-killed.html
One Week Ago:
I wrote the first 100 Marines sent to defend our Iraq
Embassy “was only the beginning” I had no idea how quickly events overtook my lame guess.
When troop levels in Iraq grow too loud, we the US,
will be asked to leave, Embassy and all. Iraqis don’t want yet another proxy war fought in their Homeland.
I’ve no idea how THAT goes down with Trump supporters. Most discomforting, neither does Trump.
Trump is playing this hour by hour with no clear strategy. Like Afghanistan and the Iraq war itself,
No Clear EXIT Strategy.
I do.
(30)
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 12:49 pm
US industry keeps shrinking:
https://www.spiegel.de/wirtschaft/unternehmen/vereinigte-staaten-industrie-schrumpft-weiter-a-1303584.html
PMI index declined from 48,1 in November down to 47,2. This is the lowest value since 2009 when the US were in a recession. 50 is the divide between growth and contraction. Positive signals come from construction.
France prepares to build 6 new nuclear power stations:
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/atomkraft-in-frankreich-drei-gruende-warum-das-land-6-neue-akw-plant-a-1301888.html
3 reasons:
1. France doesn’t have a renewable energy policy. They own the largest nuclear power station operator in Britain and France doesn’t want to write off huge nuclear investments.
2. The French see power generation as a state function, incompatible with the state demanding that civilians should be responsible to a large extent for their own power generation, like in Germany and elsewhere. Only 8% of French electricity is renewable. Nukes don’t have CO2 emissions, so they get away with it.
3. Nuclear weapon program. Germany may be Europe’s economic powerhouse, but France holds the foreign policy preeminence and keep Germany in the balance.
Duncan Idaho on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 1:19 pm
Rose McGowan:
Dear Iran, The USA has disrespected your country, your flag, your people. 52% of us humbly apologize. We want peace with your nation. We are being held hostage by a terrorist regime. We do not know how to escape. Please do not kill us.
Some are starting to wake a little.
Duncan Idaho on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 2:33 pm
Might be time for the Fat Boy to get off the golf course—
Or maybe not– stuffing his mouth with a BigMac when he opens it might be a better strategy?
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 3:10 pm
Putin called his new buddy Macron for consultations:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7848005/China-Russia-urge-restraint-oil-prices-surge-stock-markets-plunge-airstrike.html
“This action can seriously aggravate the situation in the region.’ Vladimir Putin uses emergency call to Emmanuel Macron to blast Donald Trump’s drone strike on Iran’s terror chief”
Good sign.
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:14 pm
“Iran could disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s why that matters”
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/03/business/strait-of-hormuz-iran/index.html
Bring it on, Iran! Anything that escalates is good.
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:21 pm
Bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran.
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:41 pm
WW II expert David Irving:
http://www.fpp.co.uk/online/index.html
“The coming of World War III ”
makati1 on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:53 pm
The US and Trump are delusional to the point of the suicide of what is left of the US. The US has not won a war since…maybe the Mexican-American War of 1848. If they are stupid enough to cause a real war in the ME, the Amerikans will be coming home by the tens of thousands, in body bags, and US Civil War Two will end it all. At least, I hope it does before the idiots in DC decide to use “tactical nukes” and destroy us all.
Trump is the most uneducated, delusional, stupid, president since Bush JR. His head is so far up the Jewish ass he has not seen realty for years, if ever. He cannot claim senility like Reagan, for his actions. Pure greed and a lust for power. I hope he collapse’ the US economy soon so a big war is not possible. Go for it Trump!
Yep! 2020 is going to be an exciting year! Pass the popcorn.
makati1 on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 4:56 pm
BTW: Are Amerikans ready for $10/gal gas and rationing? That may be the easiest result of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by sinking a few tankers in the channels. If the US is dependent on fraking… LMAO! Buckle up! The ride is only beginning!
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 5:02 pm
% of the population that are immigrants (Source: World Bank)
https://i.redd.it/3k4wj5k9im841.png
Cloggie on Fri, 3rd Jan 2020 5:17 pm
“Bomb, bomb, bomb, Iran.”
Excellent testing opportunity for Russian and Chinese super-sonic weapons. The world is about to be liberated from ZOG… by a loose canon intruder, who is wrecking the empire, by intent or otherwise, from within.