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Should $20 A Barrel Be The Real Price Of Oil?
Summary
Since the low in January of 2016, oil prices have rebounded to a recent price around $54.
Investor bullishness was driven by the belief in peak oil theory, the slow transition to electric and hybrid engines, and the use of the commodity oil as an investment in the China boom.
What does history say about the price of oil and its long-term trends?
Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me!
In September of 2010, we argued that oil prices were trading on psychology and entrenched beliefs, and could possibly have a real price of $10 per barrel. Investor bullishness was driven by the belief in peak oil theory, the slow transition to electric and hybrid engines, and the use of the commodity oil as an investment in the China boom. We were early, but after topping out at $115 per barrel, WTI crude oil dropped like a lead balloon to as low as $29.42.
Since the low in January of 2016, oil prices have rebounded to a recent price around $54. What is Smead Capital Management’s position on oil prices and investments in oil-related securities? What does history say about the price of oil and its long-term trends? Do non-economic oil market participants tell you what you need to know about the future of oil prices?
Long History
As you can see from the following chart – in which the price per barrel has been adjusted to reflect the USD in 2014 terms – oil has a storied history of boom and bust cycles. Oil peaked during the Civil War due to supply shortages and then was pummeled off and on for 27 years by new oil discoveries. A spike in 1894 for a supply disruption in Azerbaijan and the rapid adoption of the automobile by 1929 kept the prices up to $40. These episodes came between long stretches where prices went back and forth around $20 per barrel. In effect, oil was in a bear market off and on until 1972.
Oil peaked in 1981 around $110 per barrel and bottomed at $20 in 1999. In the spring of 2011, oil nearly exceeded the all-time high price near $120 per barrel. Therefore, we believe this bounce to $54 per barrel is very much a dead-cat bounce or bear market rally from a historical standpoint. 
Non-Economic Investors
The chart below compares the volatility of oil prices with the volume of long oil contracts held by hedge funds on the commodity futures exchanges. It shows that hedge funds were optimistic in 2014 when oil was near $115 and again in early 2015. In the last few months, their enthusiasm has exploded to record highs on the move to $54 per barrel. This is a classic example of a crowded trade, where you start with almost no one believing in higher prices and you end up with almost everyone believing.
Source: Bloomberg
When a market has been abused by declining prices as much as oil did from 2014’s high to January 2016’s low, it usually takes years to regain a high level of enthusiasm. Think of how negative the experts were on U.S. stocks from 2009 to as recently as right before the 2016 November election. Think of how notorious those who were negative about the U.S. became during that era. This “wall of worry” has carried stock prices from 676 to around 2,363 on the S&P 500 Index as we write this missive in February of 2017.
These charts don’t guarantee anything; nor do they give any short-run clues about where oil prices are going. They do seem to argue that this is a bear market rally and that history tends to drive prices to around $20 per barrel in 2014 dollar terms. The oil business is cyclical and not that far away from a boom which caused Canadian tar sands and American fracking companies to create unusual wealth in a short period of time.
Lastly, when oil prices did hit a temporary low in early 2016, private equity companies were anxious to provide capital to the over-leveraged oil producers. These zombie companies have been kept alive and maintain hope of getting back to $80 per barrel. If that happens, we’d tip our caps to them. However, we think it is more likely that oil is currently peaking around $54 per barrel, and that oil investments will be available to contrarians like us at lower oil prices and at much better terms.
The information contained in this missive represents Smead Capital Management’s opinions, and should not be construed as personalized or individualized investment advice and are subject to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Bill Smead, CIO and CEO, wrote this article. It should not be assumed that investing in any securities mentioned above will or will not be profitable. Portfolio composition is subject to change at any time and references to specific securities, industries and sectors in this letter are not recommendations to purchase or sell any particular security. Current and future portfolio holdings are subject to risk. In preparing this document, SCM has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of all information available from public sources. A list of all recommendations made by Smead Capital Management within the past twelve-month period is available upon request.
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Title: The Role of Nurses in Promoting Mental Health Awareness
Mental health has become one of the most pressing issues in the 21st century. As societies evolve and life becomes more complex, mental health challenges such as depression, anxiety, and stress-related disorders are increasingly common. Amid this growing concern, nurses play a crucial role not just in physical care but also in promoting mental well-being. Their compassionate presence, ability to build trust, nursing writing services and continuous interaction with patients position them uniquely to identify, support, and advocate for those facing mental health struggles.
Understanding Mental Health in Nursing Practice
Mental health is an integral part of overall health. The World Health Organization defines it as a state of well-being in which individuals realize their abilities, can cope with normal life stresses, work productively, and contribute to their communities. Yet, mental illness remains stigmatized in many parts of the world.
Nurses are often the first healthcare professionals to observe changes in a patient’s behavior, mood, or emotional state. Their training allows them to recognize early warning signs of mental distress. Whether working in hospitals, schools, communities, or nursing homes, nurses encounter individuals who may be silently suffering. Recognizing symptoms such as withdrawal, irritability, fatigue, or changes in appetite allows nurses to provide timely interventions or referrals.
The Nurse’s Role in Mental Health Promotion
Nurses serve multiple roles when it comes to mental health awareness — caregivers, educators, advocates, and supporters. Each of these roles contributes significantly to a healthier society.
Caregiver:
Nurses provide emotional and psychological support to patients experiencing mental distress. A simple conversation, active listening, or showing empathy can make a tremendous difference. Patients who feel heard and understood are more likely to follow treatment plans and seek help when needed.
Educator:
One of the most powerful tools nurses possess is education. They can raise awareness about mental health, dispel myths, and promote positive coping strategies. By conducting workshops, community outreach programs, pay someone to do your online class and patient education sessions, nurses empower individuals to recognize symptoms and seek professional help without fear or shame.
Advocate:
Nurses advocate for mental health policies that improve access to care, ensure patient rights, and reduce stigma. They work closely with mental health organizations, community leaders, and policymakers to develop initiatives that prioritize mental wellness.
Supporter:
Beyond clinical care, nurses provide consistent emotional support. Their nonjudgmental attitude and empathetic communication can create a safe space for patients to express their fears, guilt, or sadness.
Mental Health Nursing: A Specialized Field
While every nurse plays a part in mental health awareness, psychiatric or mental health nursing is a specialized field that focuses specifically on psychological well-being. Mental health nurses work in psychiatric hospitals, rehabilitation centers, schools, and community health programs.
They assess patients’ mental states, develop care plans, administer therapy, Importance of report writing in nursing and collaborate with psychiatrists, psychologists, and social workers. Their work requires not just medical expertise but also patience, emotional stability, and strong interpersonal skills.
In this field, nurses help individuals recover from mental illnesses and guide them in developing healthy coping mechanisms. They assist families in understanding and managing their loved ones’ conditions, fostering a supportive home environment essential for long-term recovery.
Challenges in Mental Health Nursing
Despite the importance of their role, mental health nurses face several challenges:
Stigma:
Stigma remains one of the biggest barriers to mental health awareness. Both patients and professionals sometimes face societal judgment. This makes it difficult for individuals to seek help and for nurses to work without prejudice.
Workload and Burnout:
Dealing with emotionally charged situations daily can lead to compassion fatigue and burnout among nurses. Emotional exhaustion may affect their mental health and ability to provide quality care.
Limited Resources:
In many healthcare systems, there is a shortage of mental health professionals and facilities. Nurses often work with limited resources and must manage multiple patients with complex needs.
Safety Concerns:
Some mental health patients may exhibit unpredictable or aggressive behavior, putting nurses at physical and emotional risk.
Addressing these challenges requires supportive policies, adequate staffing, continuous training, and mental health resources for nurses themselves.
The Importance of Self-Care for Nurses
To care for others, nurses must also take care of themselves. Mental health nursing, in particular, can be emotionally demanding. Practicing self-care — such as taking regular breaks, engaging in mindfulness, exercising, and maintaining social connections — helps nurses maintain balance.
Hospitals and organizations should implement wellness programs that offer counseling, peer support groups, and stress management workshops for nurses. When nurses feel emotionally strong, they can provide better care and become even stronger advocates for mental wellness.
Nurses as Mental Health Advocates in Communities
Beyond hospitals, nurses are crucial in spreading mental health awareness in schools, workplaces, and rural communities. They can lead seminars, participate in awareness campaigns, and collaborate with NGOs to educate people about mental health.
For instance, school nurses can identify children showing signs of anxiety or bullying-related depression. Community nurses can reach out to remote areas where mental health care is often neglected. By engaging directly with families, they can reduce stigma and encourage healthy communication about mental health.
The Future of Nursing in Mental Health
The future of nursing in mental health is bright yet demanding. As more attention is given to emotional well-being globally, nurses will have greater opportunities to lead mental health programs and policy reforms. The integration of digital tools, such as telepsychiatry and mental health apps, will expand nurses’ reach to patients who may not have access to traditional care.
Moreover, the emphasis on holistic healthcare means nurses will continue to bridge the gap between physical and mental well-being. By combining medical care with emotional support, nurses will help create a more balanced and humane healthcare system.
Conclusion: Healing Minds, Touching Hearts
Nurses are not only healers of the body but also of the mind and soul. Their role in promoting mental health awareness is invaluable — they bring hope to those in despair, understanding to those in confusion, and strength to those in weakness.
By breaking the silence surrounding mental illness, nurses are helping to build a more compassionate and informed society. Every conversation, every act of kindness, and every moment of empathy contributes to a world where mental health is valued as much as physical health.
As the world continues to face mental health challenges, nurses will remain at the forefront — the silent heroes, tirelessly healing minds and touching hearts with their unwavering compassion.
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