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Page added on November 2, 2013
Shell Oil Predicts Gasoline Cars Will End By 2070
With the emergence of hybrid and electric cars, the end of gasoline vehicles may become a reality sooner than you think.
Shell Oil, one of the largest petroleum companies in the world, predicted this week that petroleum-powered vehicles will pretty much be gone by 2070, according to VentureBeat.com.
The prediction was a part of Shell’s “New Lens Scenarios.” In 2013, the company developed two New Lens Scenarios, which it has called “Oceans,” and “Mountains.”
The scenarios predicts a future based on two possible directions the global economy could take the next couple of decades, or so, when affected by “technological develops and global population,” according to VentureBeat.com.
The global population is expected to top 9 billion by 2050, and the future for those people could be very different depending on which scenario takes place.
With the “Oceans” scenario, Shell sees a world with “greater understanding and compromise.” They see the world becoming more prosperous by 2050, though diminishing food, water and energy sources will become the top priorities for people.
The “Mountains” scenario predicts that natural gas will become a dominant fuel around 2030, while the “demand for liquid fuel derived from oil” declines, according to VentureBeat.com.
By then, we’ll also be driving less, only 1,200 miles per year, on average. This is predicted thanks to shorter trips “from a more city-centric population,” and more two-wheeled and public transportation devices.
In both scenarios, Shell estimates by 2070, the passenger road market will be “nearly oil-free.”
Other predictions have been made as well. The UK governmental feels that any vehicle that’s not a hybrid, plug-in, or zero-emission will be illegal by 2040.
7 Comments on "Shell Oil Predicts Gasoline Cars Will End By 2070"
Dave Thompson on Sat, 2nd Nov 2013 2:09 am
What a bunch of whooy.
BillT on Sat, 2nd Nov 2013 2:50 am
As the end of oil nears, there will be all sorts of claims that it isn’t. Desperation to keep BAU will override any possible voluntary downsizing of anything. I still believe that a world war will be the inevitable end.
But the idea that there is a practical alternate in the wings waiting to save the day is, as Dave says, “Pure Bullshit”. Maybe they should read the latest from J.M.Greer this week where he discusses ‘Systems’.
“… the nearly visceral inability to think in terms of whole systems that pervades today’s geek culture, and that curious blindness …”
Well worth the time to read and contemplate.
action on Sat, 2nd Nov 2013 3:34 am
Indeed Bill, I recall a portion of an article that was on here recently, roughly from my memory, that the greatest gains in oil in recent decades has not come from new discoveries, but from conservation and making things more efficient. Of course, like you say but put into other words, is that cannot last forever. Some day the music will stop, and the dependency on hydrocarbons and the futility will become painfully obvious, even to these jaded techno optimists.
rollin on Sat, 2nd Nov 2013 3:49 am
There will be a large excess of natural gas in 2030 to use for transportation??? That would be amazing.
J-Gav on Sat, 2nd Nov 2013 9:36 am
“The world will more prosperous by 2050?”
“More preposterous” would be closer to the mark.
Kenz300 on Sat, 2nd Nov 2013 11:18 am
Cities need to become more people centered and less automobile centered……
Walking, bicycles and mass transit need to become the center of out transportation system.
Randal Love on Mon, 29th Jun 2015 8:07 am
What a load of baloney, petrol and diesel cars will be finished way before 2070. As usual they are trying to drag out the inevitable scrapping of dirty fossil fuels for more profit.