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Page added on June 5, 2014
Scientists vindicate ‘Limits to Growth’ – urge investment in ‘circular economy’
The Earth has finite mineral resources, but humans are using them up faster than they can regenerate, with rising economic and environmental costs.
According to a new peer-reviewed scientific report, industrial civilisation is likely to deplete its low-cost mineral resources within the next century, with debilitating impacts for the global economy and key infrastructures within the coming decade.
The study, the 33rd report to the Club of Rome, is authored by Prof Ugo Bardi of the University of Florence’s Earth Sciences Department, and includes contributions from a wide range of senior scientists across relevant disciplines.
The Club of Rome is a Swiss-based global think tank consisting of current and former heads of state, UN bureaucrats, government officials, diplomats, scientists, economists and business leaders.
Its first report in 1972, The Limits to Growth, was conducted by a scientific team at the Massachusetts Institute for Technology (MIT), and warned that limited availability of natural resources relative to rising costs would undermine continued economic growth by around the second decade of the 21st century.
Although widely ridiculed, recent scientific reviews confirm that the original report’s projections in its ‘base scenario’ remain robust. In 2008, Australia’s federal government scientific research agency CSIRO concluded that The Limits to Growth forecast of potential “global ecological and economic collapse coming up in the middle of the 21st Century” due to convergence of “peak oil, climate change, and food and water security”, is “on-track.” Actual current trends in these areas “resonate strongly with the overshoot and collapse displayed in the book’s ‘business-as-usual scenario.'”
In 2009, American Scientist published similar findings by other scientists. That review, by leading systems ecologists Prof Charles Hall of State University of New York and Prof John W Day of Louisiana State University, concluded that while the limits-to-growth model’s “predictions of extreme pollution and population decline have not come true”, the model results are:
“… almost exactly on course some 35 years later in 2008 (with a few appropriate assumptions)… it is important to recognise that its predictions have not been invalidated and in fact seem quite on target. We are not aware of any model made by economists that is as accurate over such a long time span.”
The new Club of Rome report says that:
“The phase of mining by humans is a spectacular but very brief episode in the geological history of the planet… The limits to mineral extraction are not limits of quantity; they are limits of energy. Extracting minerals takes energy, and the more dispersed the minerals are, the more energy is needed… Only conventional ores can be profitably mined with the amounts of energy we can produce today.”
The combination of mineral depletion, associated radioactive and heavy metal pollution, and the accumulation of greenhouse gases from fossil fuel exploitation is leaving our descendants the “heavy legacy” of a virtually terraformed world:
“The Earth will never be the same; it is being transformed into a new and different planet.”
Drawing on the work of leading climate scientists including James Hansen, the former head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, the report warns that a continuation of ‘business as usual’ exploitation of the world’s fossil fuels could potentially trigger runaway global warming that, in several centuries or thousands of years, permanently destroy the planet’s capacity to host life. Despite this verdict, the report argues that neither a “collapse” of the current structure of civilisation, nor the “extinction” of the human species are unavoidable.
A fundamental reorganisation of the way societies produce, manage and consume resources could support a new high-technology civilisation, but this would entail a new “circular economy” premised on wide-scale practices of recycling across production and consumption chains, a wholesale shift to renewable energy, application of agro-ecological methods to food production, and with all that, very different types of social structures.
In the absence of a major technological breakthrough in clean energy production such as nuclear fusion – which so far seems improbable – recycling, conservation and efficiency in the management of the planet’s remaining accessible mineral resources will need to be undertaken carefully and cooperatively, with the assistance of cutting-edge science.
Limits to economic growth, or even “degrowth”, the report says, do not need to imply an end to prosperity, but rather require a conscious decision by societies to lower their environmental impacts, reduce wasteful consumption, and increase efficiency – changes which could in fact increase quality of life while lowering inequality.
These findings of the new Club of Rome report have been confirmed by other major research projects. In January last year, a detailed scientific study by Anglia Ruskin University’s Global Sustainability Institute commissioned by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries, found “overwhelming” evidence for resource constraints:
“… across a range of resources over the short (years) and medium (decades) term… Resource constraints will, at best, increase energy and commodity prices over the next century and, at worse, trigger a long term decline in the global economy and civil unrest.”
The good news, though is that “If governments and economic agents anticipate resource constraints and act in a constructive manner, many of the worst affects can be avoided.”
According to Dr Aled Jones, lead author of the study and head of the Global Sustainability Institute:
“Resource constraints will, at best, steadily increase energy and commodity prices over the next century and, at worst, could represent financial disaster, with the assets of pension schemes effectively wiped out and pensions reduced to negligible levels.”
It is imperative to recognise that “dwindling resources raise the possibility of a limit to economic growth in the medium term.”
In his 2014 report to the Club of Rome, Prof Bardi takes a long-term view of the prospects for humanity, noting that the many technological achievements of industrial societies mean there is still a chance now to ensure the survival and prosperity of a future post-industrial civilization:
“It is not easy to imagine the details of the society that will emerge on an Earth stripped of its mineral ores but still maintaining a high technological level. We can say, however, that most of the crucial technologies for our society can function without rare minerals or with very small amounts of them, although with modifications and at lower efficiency.”
Although expensive and environmentally intrusive industrial structures “like highways and plane travel” would become obsolete, technologies like “the Internet, computers, robotics, long-range communications, public transportation, comfortable homes, food security, and more” could remain attainable with the right approach – even if societies undergo disastrous crises in the short-run.
Bardi is surprisingly matter-of-fact about the import of his study. “I am not a doomster,” he told me. “Unfortunately, depletion is a fact of life, not unlike death and taxes. We cannot ignore depletion – just like it is not a good idea to ignore death and taxes…
“If we insist in investing most of what remains for fossil fuels; then we are truly doomed. Yet I think that we still have time to manage the transition. To counter depletion, we must invest a substantial amount of the remaining resources in renewable energy and efficient recycling technologies – things which are not subjected to depletion. And we need to do that before is too late, that is before the energy return on investment of fossil fuels has declined so much that we have nothing left to invest.”
Part 1 of this story is available here
31 Comments on "Scientists vindicate ‘Limits to Growth’ – urge investment in ‘circular economy’"
Makati1 on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 9:13 am
Another dreamer. BAU until it isn’t, is our future. Man is not intelligent enough to overcome his greed. It is already too late.
GregT on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 9:50 am
The overall message here is that we are facing a very dire reality, most likely within the next decade.
Lots of, ‘if only we would do this, we might be able to achieve that’ rhetoric. The fact is, we aren’t doing anything meaningful to invest in a post carbon future, we are ignoring climate catastrophe, and we are investing even more in fossil fuel energy, with ever diminishing returns.
There is simply too much momentum in the BAU freight train, in order to stop it in time before it careens off of the cliff of modern industrial society.
At best, our populations will be decimated, and those remaining will return to an era of pre-industrialism and scavenging. At worst, we will continue down the path of human exceptionalism, will we continue to ignore the natural world, and we will cause a runaway greenhouse event leading to our own extinction sometime in the mid to latter part of this century.
J-Gav on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 10:08 am
Makati – You may be right when you say “it’s already too late,” but too late for what? Too late for a smooth transition to a different kind of society is pretty much guaranteed. Too late for there to be any chance of getting humanity through the 21st century? I’d say the answer to that one is still up in the air.
And everybody I know considers me to be a doomer, not a dreamer. Bardi used to sound fairly doomerish himself but maybe, like Kunstler, he got tired of all the mail screaming: “Plee-ase, give me some reason to hope!” So, like Kunstler, he’s been adding in more “what can be done” and “how can we mitigate?” stuff.
Does he really believe it will happen? A few snippets show he has his doubts : “… even if societies undergo disastrous crises in the short run;” or “If we insist on investing most of what remains for fossil fuels, the we are truly doomed.”
Juan Pueblo on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 10:17 am
I read Bardi’s blog regularly, but I am not as optimistic as he is.
I think it is our nature to be as we are. We are living organisms. We will consume and destroy for as long as we exist. We will not suddenly become smarter and save the planet, we will continue destroying it as we have always done.
Juan Pueblo on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 10:23 am
JGav, yes, I remember Ugo bardi mentioned a ways back about reaching a wider audience. He then made a number of changes on his blogs and writing style. It was all related to the publishing of his book. I read both his Italian and English blogs, and they both changed. He is a lot more of a doomer than he appears to be, but boesn’t want to put off potential readers.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 10:30 am
JP — I agree with your assessment of humanity, taken as a whole. While there are many of us who see the utter foolishness of it all and who are making changes in our own lives to both disconnect and insulate ourselves from the stupid self-destructive mass of humanity, fact is, humanity as a whole behaves very much like bacteria in a petri dish — eat up everything as fast as possible until a massive die-off occurs due to running out of food and/or due to suffocating in their own foul excrement.
I really believe that in the evolution and development of the human species, the psychopaths and sociopaths amongst us who strive for power and domination over others must have served some survival benefit. Now, they are killing us all, dragging us all to the bottom with their greed and hunger for power and wealth. IMO, long term survival of the human race will require the evolutionary weeding out of sociopathic personalities from the population. Oh, and let’s hope that Darwin’s Law takes care of all the really stupid ones too, of which there are far, far too many.
Juan Pueblo on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 11:03 am
NR, those psychos probably made excellent hunters 😉
Northwest Resident on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 11:11 am
JP — I get your point, but probably those sociopaths and psychos were best at manipulating others into doing their hunting for them.
The survival benefit of having power-mad greed-motivated sociopaths around might have been that, in a period where tribes were expanding and resource wars were starting to fire up, the tribe needed a ruthless and cold-blooded leader willing and eager to lead the tribe to “victory” in war over the other competing tribes.
Those sociopaths in the industrial age mutated into business, finance and political leaders who in their quest for power and wealth, had no problem “conquering and destroying” all of nature and anybody who got in their way.
In other words, the people that tribes once depended on for leadership and survival ended up in our modern age becoming the predators that prey upon the people who once needed them.
GregT on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 11:18 am
“Those sociopaths in the industrial age mutated into business, finance and political leaders who in their quest for power and wealth, had no problem “conquering and destroying” all of nature and anybody who got in their way.”
Very good summation NWR.
Plantagenet on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 11:20 am
You can’t have limits to growth without limiting population growth. It wasn’t business, finance and political leaders who destroyed the zero population growth movement in the US—it was liberals who denounced ZPG as “racism”.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 11:33 am
Plant — The “zero population growth movement” was a total pipe dream and a completely unrealistic idea from the get-go. Your blaming the “destruction” of the ZPG on “liberals” is a complete and total laugher. Who believes that abortions should be legal under certain circumstances, and who believes that every drug-destroyed baby born into utter filth and poverty deserves its chance at “life”? Not liberals. Who is having all the (white) babies these days? Poor, uneducated, rural redneck and definitely not “liberal” good-old-boys who prefer to keep their women pregnant and in the kitchen.
How could you possibly be so wrong on the ZPG subject, Plant? Don’t you think before you write?
Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 11:45 am
Gav, you make a good point the jury is out on will we get through 21st century. I believe the global system has zero chance of survival. Regionally there is a case for some optimism for human habitation. What is worrisome is the breakdown of whole ecosystems not just species extinction. When the industrial is gone from the man part we will have to have these ecosystems to support a population. If we have a population adjustment along with a consumption adjustment we just might limit climate instability. It is doubtful we can limit significant climate instability but maybe the humanity ending variety. We may find regionally a benign human organization as a reaction to the psychopathic and sociopathic examples we see today. We see throughout human history cyclical trends. There is no reason to write off a return to small groups, communities, and tribal organizations in peaceful coexistence in some regions. We know this will not be the case everywhere. Where the conditions are right we will see warlordism and invasions in search of booty. The interesting part will be the initial decent which I see as quick, ugly, painful, and possibly the end of humanity. If we can reboot in some locations we may see an awakening of the human spirit in those social arrangements that are true to are nature for most of our history. We will be a tired and exhausted species that will be looking for stability and safety. It is getting from here to there that will be ugly and there are no guarantees of a rebirth.
meld on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 12:31 pm
The most irritating thing about knowing about the limits to growth is that we are all going to have to deal with shit like this for the next 20 years as if it’s some new thing that just suddenly happened.
Headline shockers:
Scientists say the laws of entropy DO actually exist!
Scientists say that Resources are limited ! what do we DO!!!?
Scientists say stuffing your body full of chemicals and toxic shit is bad for you! OMG!
the best solution is to let the stupid people who didn’t prepare or read die. Survival of the most adaptable and all that. Would solve the population problem and keep the most adaptable and forward thinking humans alive to procreate.
meld on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 12:32 pm
NWR – good point!
noobtube on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 12:34 pm
Am I reading this right?
The so-called 1st world is afraid they are going to have to suffer the indignities and terror they have been inflicting on everyone else for the last century? That is a huge debt Americans owe the planet, that WILL BE SETTLED!
Americans live the degenerate competitive lifestyle. So many peoples live a cooperative lifestyle (Americans understand nothing about cooperation with others, except to murder and destroy).
Oh noezzz!!! Americans may have to live in a violence-filled land like Mexico (thanks to Americans) or Colombia (thanks to Americans), or Venezuela (thanks to Americans), or Bolivia (thanks to Americans).
This is not a human problem. This is an American problem of the Earth.
The Americans split the Koreans, isolated the Cubans, terrorized the Haitians, brutalized countries all throughout Central America, invaded and destroyed the Middle East, and for the grande finale, are absolutely crushing Africa.
Yet, the Americans constantly whine about it’s not their fault, it’s a human problem (as if that settles THEIR debt, make everyone else pay for the American obligations).
American scumbags are the ones who are going to be suffering when the end of cheap oil finally kicks their asses into the dust.
Humanity, wildlife, and the planet Earth will be breathing a sigh of relief that the predatory, greedy, murderous, genocidal, conniving American devils are finally gone.
It looks like that’s only several years down the road.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 12:44 pm
noob — Thanks for the totally hilarious post. I think I’m finally starting to see the intense humor in your madness and in your hate-filled rage. The fact that you totally distort historical and current events to bend them to your hate-and-rage filled ideologies just makes it all the more funny — but in a pathetic sort of way.
“predatory, greedy, murderous, genocidal, conniving American devils”
You crack me up, dude. In other news today, Nigerian rebels posing as soldiers rounded up 300 villagers and slaughtered them — while still holding 300 underage girls for rape and ransom.
Go ahead, noob. Continue making a total and complete ass of yourself. Let’s hear you sing Africa’s praises again, and let’s hear how you blame the daily slaughter going on in Africa on America. I need all the laughter I can get in my life.
noobtube on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 1:04 pm
Once again Americans are trying to point out someone else’s responsibilities, to avoid paying its own debts.
So, Nigerians rounded up 300 Americans for rape? So, if they didn’t, how in the hell are you some expert on what is happening in a country you know nothing about. Or, do you just believe whatever lies the American press tells you to keep you distracted from all the problems Americans are causing, EVERYWHERE.
And, when exactly did Nigeria’s problems become the responsibilities of Americans?
In fact, didn’t Americans rape and murder tens (hundreds?) of thousands of Africans, throughout slavery, Jim Crow/Segregation, and through the court/cop/jails system today (War on Drugs/AIDS)? Let’s see… lynchings, segregation, Tuskegee experiment, Black Codes, Klu Klux Klan, Neo-Nazis, Aryan Nation, skinheads…
America has a HUGE DEBT to pay.
Oh, that’s right. The United States is so busy meddling in the affairs of others, it can’t fix its own problems (of which, they are legion) or meet its own obligations.
When you meddle in other’s affairs, without their consent, you create a debt with them.
By that measure, Americans have an insurmountable debt it owes the peoples, lands, and life on Earth.
It won’t be able to pay it so America will disappear.
You may be laughing now.
But, its pretty clear who will have the LAST laugh. (Hint: It won’t be Americans).
Northwest Resident on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 1:19 pm
noob, you’re consistently one very sick twisted puppy — I’ll give you that — but still so consistently wrong about everything you spew that it is funnier than hell.
J-Gav on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 3:36 pm
Nobody’s going to have the “last laugh.”
Supposing there is one, it will be a twisted, corner-of-the-mouth job that will only fool those who were already fools.
J-Gav on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 3:56 pm
Davy, NWR, Meld, GregT, Makati,
There’s little doubt that getting from here to there will be ugly.
Just how ugly and where it will be the ugliest is kinda hard to say, but some of the wiser folks on this board have understood that there isn’t going to be any manna from heaven or top-down beneficence to save the day.
I’m not saying “every man for himself” though. Without community support (where women would be playing an equal i.e. major, role), I see little hope for the lone-wolf survival type.
meld on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 5:05 pm
at J-GAV, been building my A-team for 5 years now. Ages range from 14 up to 60. Youngest is an electronics whizz and the oldest is basically a handyman wizard who can do anything with metal. Vast spread of excellent skills in between. Most of them don’t know they are in the squad or indeed that I’m Hannibal, but no need to worry them prematurely 😀
Yeti on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 8:01 pm
noob, what country, should the U.S. suddenly be taken off the map influence wise (EMP, local contagion, whatever), would you say would best take the reins of global power projection in terms of doing the most good for humanity.
I.E. I think you’ve given us a “hint” of who’s bad, so who are you for? What country specifically?
Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 8:29 pm
Yeti, Noob don’t know geography and he probably can’t name 3 continents and 10 countries. Noob just came across some anti-American literature and felt empowered. It is obvious he is a copy/paste kind of wuss.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 9:12 pm
Davy — Actually, it is highly likely that noobtube is not actually a real person, but is instead an automated computer program invented by American-hating “terrorists”. The program is set to fire every so often, and post automated “I hate America and I hate Americans” messages across numerous forums on a scheduled basis. That’s probably why we don’t get any intelligent responses from him/her/IT — the program just posts and isn’t smart enough to debate or engage in any kind of rational discussion. Just a dumb, obnoxious, ignorant computer program. Likely?
noobtube on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 9:20 pm
Why in the world does the Earth need global power projection?
Isn’t that “global domination” stupidity the whole reason why everyone is in the mess the United States has created, today?
I will say this much, even on a PeakOil website, you can see the frauds so “worried” about what to do about it, really are just worried about keeping the evil empire, called Amuricuh, that the Earth clearly cannot tolerate for much longer.
Unlike the Russians, Chinese, or even English, there is no concept of an American outside the United States government. Mexicans have more of an identity than ‘Mericans.
Everybody should be allowed to handle their own business without some scumbag, terrorists, like the United States, bombing and murdering your people under the guise of freedom and democracy, when it’s really about exploitation and subjugation.
One thing Americlans are good at is making enemies. When they are exposed as weak and vulnerable, it is going to be real interesting to see how arrogant they are then when the world and the Earth are ready for some payback.
Makati1 on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 10:33 pm
Ah, noob, you tramped heavily on a few American toes but you are spot on in your observations. The US is currently trying very hard to get a world war going so they have an excuse for their collapse. 135 countries at last count have American agitators working and costing billions of tax dollars. But those ‘exceptional’ Americans refuse to see the real future coming to them, and about time. Maybe it will save the rest of the world if they destroy themselves first.
Makati1 on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 10:38 pm
Yeti, perhaps the rest of the world would not have their problems if the US wasn’t stirring them up constantly? Name one problem area in the world that the US is NOT involved in directly or indirectly. Just one. I bet you cannot find it.
Northwest Resident on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 11:07 pm
Davy — See what I mean? At least with Makati1 you know you’ve got a real person at the other end of the internet connection. noob — nothing there but random bursts of venom. Hmmm…
Makati1 — Your point of view is radical to the extreme IMO, and heavily biased. Where do you get your information that 135 countries at last count have American agitators working and costing billions of tax dollars? That seems pretty far-fetched, like many of the accusations you make. Can you name your source for that info?
Yeti on Thu, 5th Jun 2014 11:24 pm
noob, you didn’t answer my question, big surprise.
Mak,
Are you actually saying another “player” wouldn’t step in should the evil U.S. go bye bye? The one choice you do not have is some imaginary happy land where all the little societies just figure their own problems out and create heaven on Earth. Say hi to your pal Pol Pot for me, twit!
Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 6th Jun 2014 4:14 am
Well, Mak and Noob tag-teaming! What a joke. Are you giving legitimacy to the Noob, Mak? Look boys, your messages are not balanced, objective, and rational. This disqualifies you in my mind from the scientific discussions we have here. You tag team boys are interest in an ideological messages centered on anti-American rhetoric and the glorification of anyone in opposition to the US. All current and previous evils from this opposition is mute. It appears your opposition is the entire rest of the world so that is 6BIL plus against a few hundred MIL. So in your perverted rationality this few hundred MIL is causing all the problems of the rest of the world. You tag-team boys are ignorant and intolerant. I do not object to you being here Makster but I will fight every comment you make in the attempt for your perversions not to become normalized and acceptable. Noob is another story. The noob has no message and no dialogue. Noob is a coward and a troll. If you start tag teaming with Noob, Mak, it is a slippery slope to becoming a Noob. Is that what you want Mak, zero respect?
rollin on Sat, 7th Jun 2014 6:33 pm
You can’t bargain or negotiate with nature. After messing the nest on a grand scale, changing the make-up of the atmosphere and changing ocean chemistry, the push for a different type of BAU is just self-deluding. What needs to be done is to reverse much of the damage or live with the results for thousands of years (or longer), if we still live. A “circular” civilization is not enough, it must be a healing civilization. Even then large changes will still occur.