Russian Oil Flows East as Relations With West Sour

42 Comments on "Russian Oil Flows East as Relations With West Sour"

Arthur on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 3:51 pm 



European losers let themselves being manouvered, totally against their interest, into embracing a total basket case, four times the size of Greece, square two, just because their overlords are on a world conquest rampage.

dissident on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 5:28 pm 



Those sock puppet losers are talking about new sanctions. The butcher Kiev regime slaughters civilians with random artillery and MLRS fire on villages, towns and cities every freaking day and the f*cking west is threatening Russia.

Spare the world your brain dead intellectual insults about international law and territorial integrity. The partition of Serbia in 1999 broke all those laws. The International Court of Justice at the Hague rule that the secession of Kosovo was legal without any need for a referendum and there is not such thing as territorial integrity. Local rights trump national boundaries.

Richard Ralph Roehl on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 6:00 pm 



It’s going to be a bitter cold winter in Europe.

Plantagenet on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 6:04 pm 



Obama and Hillary had a bizarre delusion that they could “reset” Russia to be friendly by giving them red plastic buttons labelled “reset”. Now Putin has created a new reality in eastern Europe that has popped that bit of silliness. In response to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, Obama has talked the EU into adopting more and more severe sanctions against Russia. Unfortunately, the blowback from the western sanctions are likely to be rather painful for the western economies themselves.

Makati1 on Sat, 16th Aug 2014 9:04 pm 



Still drinking that DC cool aid Plantagenet? Russia didn’t invade anyplace. The DC Mafia replaced a democratically elected government with a Nazi puppet regime that is too stupid to even keep their act together.

As for Crimea, they voted to leave the Ukraine (Western nations contrived pseudo country) and rejoin Russia where they had been for over 100 years. That was a totally legal move.

What is happening now is Nazi extermination of the Russian speaking ‘inferior’ race’. No different from that of Hitler’s Germany in the 1930s and early 1940s. Even their flag is a Nazi SS symbol.

The US & NATO need a world war to blame their imminent collapse on. Putin has frustrated their plans and the foam is starting to form around Western elite mouths. Attacking an airliner and then losing the high ground when Russia showed proof that the Kiev puppets were the guilty party, has only made the situation worse. Wait and see. Some really radical, stupid, suicidal action from the West is coming soon.

meld on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 1:42 am 



Europe isn’t worried because it’s fallen hook line and sinker for the shale gas story. Lets see how that plays out for them

Perk Earl on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 3:27 am 



“Meanwhile, Russian oil exports to Europe via its largest pipeline network have fallen from a peak of 3.72 million barrels a day in May 2012, to less than 3 million barrels a day in July.”

That’s a huge reduction.

I never understood what was to be gained by sanctioning energy powerhouse Russia over obsolete Ukraine. Like Clint Eastwood said as Dirty Harry, “Man’s got to know his limitations.” But we didn’t and no doubt come this winter when the EU does not have enough NG, they will turn to the US and say, “What about some shipments of all that shale gas?” We’ll send it to them and the price of our NG will about double, applying even more pressure to those living paycheck to paycheck.

Arthur on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 3:39 am 



Plantagenet is the prime example of a British liar, the sort of people that has manouvered Europe into a world war twice and would love to do it for a third time. It is high time that continental Europeans and Americans of continental European descent finally recognize the British for what they are and together repeat the 1776 stunt and put these people out of business and take their Rothschildt shack London apart and liberate Euro-Americans (and the rest of the world) from the bankster axis London-Walstreet that was behind all the wars since 1900. Abolish the Fed and restore the Constitution after having fried the collective *sses of all the Cornwallises on this planet.

Arthur on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 5:08 am 



The best indication that not All Is Quiet At The Eastern Front is the threat nade by the operette Nazis of the Right Sektor that they could immediately abandon Donbass if certain demands are not met by Kiev within 48 hours, otherwise the RS will march on Kiev in full battledress:

http://rt.com/news/180876-nationalists-threaten-kiev-raid/

If Ukrainian forces were really in the winning mood this would not have happened. Instead they are losing the battle. If the RS really withdraws, things could move really fast.

rockman on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 8:08 am 



Meld – “Europe isn’t worried because it’s fallen hook line and sinker for the shale gas story.” Just as the great majority of Americans who still don’t understand that after years of our “shale miracle” the US is still a net importer of oil…AND NG. We’re still dependent on imports of both just as the EU will remain for many decades IMHO.

Davy on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 8:20 am 



Art, I believe Ukr’s are going to make their maximum push by winter. Ukr’s may be like “Operation Barbarossa” and Napoleon’s invasion too little too late to beat the Russian winter. It will come down to energy and food by winter. The first hint of discomfort in the spoiled Euro population will cause the Euro “Lackey leaders” to fold. The DC Mafia will be left with a “bag of shit” that is all you can call a failed state (Ukr) and failed alliance (Nato). Don’t think Putt will fare much better with his Chavez economic and militaristic policies paid for through oil revenues. If we can be sure of one thing that is oil prices are unstable long term just as economies eventually shift. If Putt’s win destroys oil prices he will sink his ship. The big “if” is time. Who has won the critical element of time? I admire Putt for recognizing the all-important time variable. If you are going to play you have to pay. I imagine Putt also is wagering the resulting shake out will put him in a stronger position in a world he is well aware is coming apart. I feel where Putt’s strategy is failing is believing he can maintain his novo empire that will result from the failures of the DC mafia, Nato nonsense, and Euro Union of wimps. The current BAU global system is supporting all countries currently. Do you think the Brics can decouple from the west. Do you think the brics can survive a BAU globalism in contraction? Sorry, the bric basket cases will fold with the end of all the structures that have allowed every one of them to grow. IMA a necessary growth considering the disequilibrium every one of their economies is in. This is the endgame of global BAU. We are at the precipice can we pull back in the next few months. This can be done by Europe foremost. This crisis is in Europe’s hands to reject sanctions and reject an anti-Russian economic and foreign policy.

Arthur on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 8:49 am 



Davy, we are on one page when it comes to the impossibility of the continuation of BAU for anyone. We are all heading south economically: US, EU, BRICS, China… all.

However, I do not think that civilization, geopolitics, alliances, trade, military, etc., will come to an end. Far from it. You can have all this with a obese spoiled population as well as with poor hungry suckers. And the latter it is going to be.

And as long as Russia has oil and gas, the fall for them will be the most manageable.

https://deepresource.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/ukraine_map_region_vote.jpg

The most logical outcome of this conflict would be either a Canada/Belgium/Switzerland-like federal option (living together apart) or a split up of the country in two parts: the red parts either independent or member of the Russian Federation, the blue parts independent. The longer the war lasts and the more blood is shed, the less likely it will be that Ukraine will continue to be unitary state.

Davy on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 9:14 am 



I acknowledge your civility approach to descent. I am more of a doomer than you. Art, you are one that straddles the doomer/corny fence. Probably a safer and more manageable position at least short term. “But”, Art, around here the fences are barbed wire and that can be dangerous on your “family jewels”. Sooner or later the discomfort may require you chosing sides.

Arthur on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 9:49 am 



“I am more of a doomer than you. Art”

That’s because you and other people I have in high regard, like Greg and Makati, have embraced a, in my view, very costly opinion, namely that renewables are nothing more than an extension of the fossil fuel economy. If you think that is true, then you must be a doomer indeed.

But if you think, like I do, that it does not matter where a kwh comes from, from fossil or renewable, and also know that solar and wind have high enough eroei, and still increasing, than it can be safely concluded that there is no energy problem in the very long term. Yes, we are on the eve of a huge energy crunch, with all the drama that will come with it.

Nony on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 9:50 am 



How about nukes? With breeder reactors?

JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 10:07 am 



I wonder what will happen with this Russian aid convoy. The drivers all look military, probably a combo of Spetsnaz, military analysts, and former military or something like that.
I think Putin is buying time with this great PR move and distracting the enemy at the same time. This convoy is good for Putin at home because most Russians don’t understand why he is not doing more in Ukraine. If the convoy is allowed through it is likely to come back loaded with old, disabled, women, children, and other refugees. Another PR photo op. If it is not let through, he can claim that he tried to help but the Western powers and Ukraine blocked him. Win, win for Putin as a tactical move.
I expect the attacks on the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk to continue for months until the cities are totally destroyed. I think Putin realized in May that he lost Ukraine and that is why he rejected the reunification with the Donbass.
Eastern Ukraine is being ethnically cleansed as we text and this process will continue ahead until completed. It will be repopulated with Western Ukrainians. The parliament in Kiev is now debating laws to confiscate the properties of Eastern Ukrainians.
Russia and Ukraine will become mortal enemies. Putin probably plans a revenge for after the collapse of BAU, when the USA government will no longer be able to support the Kiev regime.
I am afraid all those Ukrainians that move East of the Dniepper river will be exterminated by the Russians in some years time as payback, when Russia decides to take back all of Novorossiya, and return it to its Ukrainian refugees. These two peoples will not share anything for a long, long time.

Arthur on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 10:13 am 



“I expect the attacks on the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk to continue for months until the cities are totally destroyed”

Probably too pessimistic. Have a look at this:

http://deepresource.wordpress.com/2014/08/16/the-russians-are-trashing-us/

Davy on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 10:19 am 



I am trying to believe in your shiny AltE world Art! I want it to be so. I want hope more for my kids than me. Art, I am the type that wants the bad news first. I want to know worst case scenario. That is my starting point then when things turn out better then I feel like gravy on the thanksgiving turkey. So Art, don’t get me wrong I admire your optimism and I want to join your army but I am just not there yet. If any peoples can do the transition it will be Europe with Russia’s energy backup. China is drowning in their shit. The US is living a shale gas fantasy. And the “Tird world” well is a tird. Europe is our last best chance of showing us the way to a sustainable future if you make it through the winter that is.

JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 10:21 am 



Art, LOL. I have been called a pessimist all my life. My life experience and current events have probed to me that I am not a pessimist, things are worse today than I ever thought they would be by now a couple of decades ago.
The Ukrainians won’t back down, and they’ll keep bombing and shelling those cities for months. They will have to be forced to stop and I don’t see that happening soon.
Taking these cities is another story. I don’t think they can be taken without destroying them first. Remember Black Hawk Down?

Davy on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 10:24 am 



Juan, nothing new in the historic Russian/Ukr relations sounds like a “Back to Stalin” period coming up with the Ukr’s getting a thumping eventually for their bad behavior by the powerful Russians. When the Ukr disolves into a failed state it will be a de facto Russian protectorate.

JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 10:33 am 



Davy, Putin is not a forgiving man, and the Russian people are in shock about what’s going on. For them this is as incredible as the Mexicans attacking the USA would be for the people here. But brotherly love is fast turning into hate in Russia. I fear that before the year is over the damge will be long term. Putin will make the Ukrainians pay for this every day for the rest of their lives. When the time for payback in a post BAU world comes, 10 or 20 years down the road, it will be very brutal, IMO.

JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 10:48 am 



Art, I am more of a doomer than you are, too. But I am not concerned about energy at all.
I am concerned with overpopulation, emissions, Global Warming and consequent Anthropogenic Climate Change, oceans’ acidification, pollution, waste, environmental destruction, renewable and nonrenewable resources’ depletion, soil erosion, desertification, aquifers’ depletion, dying fisheries, deforestation, and other trivial things like that.
To be honest I see PO and its potential consequences, particularly depopulation, as humanity’s last chance of not destroying the planet till it becomes uninhabitable for humans and we self extinct ourselves.
But I envy your optimism and wish I could be more like you in that aspect, being a realist like I am really, really sucks in today’s world. So, enjoy your optimism as much as possible while you still have it, just in case you lose it someday, like it happened to me a long, long time ago.

Makati1 on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 11:01 am 



The people of Russia are behind their leader, Putin in the very high percentile. I think he knows that if he actually invades the Ukraine, he will be blamed for starting WW3. Time and China’s wealth is on his side.

Russia is not resource poor and all the thoughts of it collapsing when the West does is wishful thinking. It will be rougher than now, but not as bad as the last years of WW2 for Russia. They know how to live without much. And they have already arranged to replace the Western food imports by importing them from other countries favorable to the Russians. Don’t discount the BRICS. They have more in their favor than the West. The dollar is not needed when better alternates are available.

Europe is only months away from a wake up call. When the first frosts hit and Putin is still in control of 1/3 of the oil and gas going into Europe…

JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 11:18 am 



Mak, I agree with your last comment, except that I think the future of the BRICS nations can’t be grouped in any way, they will each go their own way. Brazil and Russia have a lot of resources in relation to their populations and will fare relatively OK, India and China will have to contract a lot more because they are brutally overpopulated, and South Africa will be a mess in time because of racial issues and megadroughts, IMO.

edboyle on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 2:14 pm 



«Россия — карлик, я поставлю её на колени.» Карл 12-й, XVIII век. Швеция навсегда лишилась статуса великой державы. «Я покорю отсталую Россию.» Фридрих, середина XVIII века. В 1759 году русская армия вошла в Берлин. «Россия — колосс на глиняных ногах.» Наполеон, XIX век. …В 1814 году русская армия взяла Париж. «Я завоюю СССР к концу года.» Гитлер, XX век. В 1945 году покончил с собой, когда советская армия вошла в Берлин. «Россия – всего лишь региональная держава» сказал Барак Обама, 26 марта 2014 года…

Russia, dwarf, I will drive you to your knees, carl 12th, Sweden,18th century
Sweden lost after this forever its status as great power.

I will conquer backward Russia, frederick thegreat, mid 18th century-in 1759 the Russian army marched into Berlin.

“Russia is a collossus with feet of clay-”
Napoleon-in 1814 the Russian army marched into Paris.

“I’ll conquer the Soviet Union by the end of the year”-Hitler-he committed suicide in 1945 whenthe Soviet army entrted Berlin.

“Russia is only a regional power” Barack Obama, 26th March, 2014…

radon1 on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 2:21 pm 



Juan – “I expect the attacks on the cities of Luhansk and Donetsk to continue for months until the cities are totally destroyed.”

Difficult to believe that Ukies would be able to go on with the military campaign for months, they should run out of everything much sooner. Hence Putt’s preferred strategy may be the war of attrition that we are observing now and that the Ukies may be unable to sustain over the longer term.

Do not underestimate the possibility that Ukraine totally falls apart, with totally economically unviable Kiev left alone with its 2m+ population.

Also, the relations between Russians are Ukrainians are fundamentally different to those between Americans and Mexicans. In view of the Russians, the current events are a grave meaningless bloodshed, into which the ordinary people were manipulated by some alien vested interests.

Davy on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 2:27 pm 



Ed, Russians fondness for vodka and various other social decline attributes of the Russian people leave one to believe the glorious accomplishments mentioned above are nothing more than “paintings in a museum”. Russians are not particularly high on the list for a productive people. The military is filled with conscripts that would rather be elsewhere. There social and political environment is ruled by Mafia and Oligarchs. You could call Putt a new Russian Czar wanna-be. The Russians of today are nothing like the past let’s keep things in perspective friend.

radon1 on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 4:59 pm 



Davy – what is more, the US has Obama this time.

Arthur on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 5:39 pm 



http://youtu.be/5veOECY0tKQ

MKohnen on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 7:46 pm 



JuanP,

Bombing cities to rubble destroys civilian populations, but if Stalingrad shows us anything, that doesn’t stop the war. The Russians know what happened to the logistically poor Germans when winter set in. They also know that the Ukrainians are in the exact same boat. I believe the Russian convoy is carrying vital military goods to the insurgents: food, clothing, etc. The military items that, when missing, destroy armies. The west, on the other hand, is determined to send actual military items. But if you listen to the comments by the 400+ Ukrainian soldiers who recently escaped to Russia, their biggest problem is being without proper food, shelter, etc. As for beating the Ukraine, Russia knows that time is on its side. Really, someone explain how Russia can actually lose?

As for Russia vs NATO, Russia can only “win” if it can buy time. Putin is as aware of the current resource depletions as any of us. Russia is a net exporter of energy and the metric is simple: without energy, you lose. The US is a net importer. Now, how that will affect the US domestically is one question. But definitely it will hamper its ability to wage war without destroying its economy. But, as Davy has pointed out, “winning” is only a relative term. Russia cannot really win against the US, just as the US cannot really win against Russia.

JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 7:53 pm 



Radon, If the Ukrainians were fighting alone they would have already been beaten. The USA is directing, financing, and arming this ethnic cleansing and they will continue to do so.
I take for granted that Ukraine is already a failed state.
The way the Russians see the Ukrainians has changed radically this year and will continue to do so. Your assessment of their relationship would have been a lot closer to the truth a year ago. The Russians are horrified by the atrocities being committed by Kiev and they are blaming both Kiev and the USA for it. The Ukrainians and the USA are fast losing what little support they had in Russia.

JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 7:55 pm 



MK, total agreement.

Makati1 on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 8:16 pm 



JuanP, I agree that they will eventually break or at least weaken, but that will not happen until after the collapse. They have too much to gain at this point. Their major goal is to present a force able to withstand and, eventually, take down the US Dollar. They all recognize that that is the easiest way to pull the US military out of the rest of the world. Collapse the US economy and the DC Mafia will need their troops on US soil to control the 320 million rioters. At least, that is how I see it now.

As for Russia being not the Russia of old, Davy, would you bet YOUR life on that assumption? What is the difference, vodka or the tens of billions spent on drugs in the US today? Between legal and illegal drugs, the US spends over $100 billion per year to ‘stay happy’. And even that number is way low if you take in ALL of the ‘comfort foods’ consumed like beer, wine, hard liquor, etc. Obesity does not happen by eating veggies.

JuanP on Sun, 17th Aug 2014 8:35 pm 



Mak, I agree that is what’s happening, an economic war, on both sides. We will all lose, particularly the people in all countries involved. Nobody wins fights like this at this time, so close to BAU’s collapse. This could send the world economy into a spin for a while if it keeps escalating as I expect. We’ll have another false flag in Ukraine soon, what will it be this time?

radon1 on Mon, 18th Aug 2014 4:21 am 



Juan – I would nevertheless insist that my assessment is pretty authentic. Russians’ view of Ukrainians and vice versa has not changed much and will not change much because of these events, however surreal these events appear to be. Russians do not directly associate Ukrainians with “Kiev” and “the US”.

Davy on Mon, 18th Aug 2014 6:48 am 



Art’s YouTube is very profound. It shows a population clearly against war and especially civil war. It is showing a recognition at least by some Ukr’s of a hijacked political/military/social situation in reality a civil war. It shows what the wealthy Ukr’s are pushing for their own benefit. It shows the meddling of outside powers in an internal struggle. We know the US should not be here. The EU has interest here as well as Russia. Both Russia and EU have played this country off poorly. I would say Russia has the best reasons for interfering in this country with its long history and unnatural ethnic borders. It also has an interest with the support it has been giving to Ukr. There is the past heavy trade involvement of the two countries. Yet, Russia has played poor cards in the Ukr by supporting a corrupt regime of the former government. So, Russia is not without blame in this crisis but since it has the most to lose with a failed state on its doorsteps I personally have to side with Russia in this crisis. Russia has the resources and arrangements to support a Ukr although I am not sure if Russia can afford supporting a failed state. The EU may have to support the western parts and the Russians the eastern parts. I am not sure either can afford to support a dissected Ukr. This could be a Russian short term Achilles heel and the EU longer term Achilles heel. There are limits to Chavez economics and that is what Putt is doing. He is financing his foreign adventures, militarism, and economic policy shifts with oil money that should be reinvested in a declining oil sector. This is a big gamble on Czar Putt’s part. He may succeed but I personally think disrupting the global status quo can only harm oil prices on which most of Russia’s survival depends

Art on Mon, 18th Aug 2014 7:42 am 



As Davy says.

I got a block msg again, probably in response to my top heavy opinions. So I’ll be gone again for some time, perhaps for ever, and concentrate on blogging and work.

Best wishes from Arthur.

JuanP on Mon, 18th Aug 2014 9:01 am 



Radon, I agree that most Ukrainians and Russians are against the war. This has always been a 1%er war in an oligarchy.
I am afraid you may find if this continues that there is only one step from love to hate, this is not a long road, it is a one instant flip with no coming back.
I believe public opinion can be very easily manipulated and these opinions and feelings are changing as we speak. I did not talk about Ukrainians’ perceptions of the war because they are extremely different from the Russians.
The Russian people compare what is happening with the beginning of the holocaust. Russians are suffering ethnic cleansing right now, that changes the way you see the people who allowed this to happen.
I don’t believe the Ukrainian people will be spared, in spite of their innocence. The guilty are a handful of oligarchs and a few thousand Nazis, the millions are powerless like everywhere else.
Putin will give Ukrainians one last chance, probably, before destroying them, when the time comes. In a worst case scenario a belt of tactical nukes on Western Ukraine would secure Russia’s border for centuries in that area in one instant in a post collapse world.
I hope you are right and I am wrong.

JuanP on Mon, 18th Aug 2014 9:20 am 



Davy, I have been saying since the beginning that Putin doesn’t want Ukraine any more, he is happy to have Crimea back. The USA did Russia a great favor by taking this ball and they will dump it on the EU’s lap eventually. Ukraine was costing the Russians a lot of dough. Putin just wants Russia. Russians are satisfied with the territory they have, IMO. They just don’t want an American base and missile systems across the border. I can’t blame them.
It is true that when Ukraine was under Russia’s control, these past 20 years, the country was an oligarchic mess, but that was because of the USSR’s collapse. Ukraine has been all about oligarchs fighting each other for two decades. I don’t think Russia could have done more, they had the same problems at home.
All of Ukraine’s territory East of the Dniepper river and South to Odessa was Russian territory gifted to Ukraine by Russia during the soviet years. Ukraine never existed before, there were Romanian territories in the South and Polish and Hungarian territories in the North. Ukraine is one of the most fictitious, least coherent countries in the world. Ukraine as an independent country lasted 23 years thanks to Russian support, and now without it they have become a failed state.
We agree that the Russians have hurt as much as they’ve helped, and so have we.

JuanP on Mon, 18th Aug 2014 12:58 pm 



Another view on Ukraine: http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/08/18/did-iran-just-knife-putin-in-the-back/

JuanP on Mon, 18th Aug 2014 6:51 pm 



Bulgaria halts South Stream gas pipeline again:

http://rt.com/business/181136-bulgaria-halts-south-stream/

JuanP on Mon, 18th Aug 2014 6:57 pm 



Time.com article on Russia and Ukraine crisis.
http://time.com/3111137/russians-start-paying-the-price-for-putins-ukraine-adventure/