Russian Energy Minister Sees Oil Price at $50

54 Comments on "Russian Energy Minister Sees Oil Price at $50"

geopressure on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 2:17 pm 



Russia was trying to prevent Interest rate hikes last week as the FED had 2 Emergency Meetings…

geopressure on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 2:18 pm 



Kuwait Oil Workers just went on strike & shut in 2 Million BOPD of Production…

shortonoil on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 3:27 pm 



“Kuwait Oil Workers just went on strike & shut in 2 Million BOPD of Production…”

By our calculations with another 2.5 mb/d reduction they will be back to this this graph:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

Which would put oil at $65 in 2016, and $54 in 2017. Over those values enough demand destruction sets in to drive prices back to the curve.

geopressure on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 3:51 pm 



Anything that “thehillsgroup” puts out is based on poor assumptions…

Shortonoil thinks that Reservoir temperature is an important factor in whether or on a field will be economically viable or not & this is only true where oil is highly viscous – a very tiny percentage of oil fields.

Shortonoil thinks that in a 4,000 ft well, energy to lift produced fluids 4,000 feet is required, he does not understand that the reservoir energy lifts the fluids most of the way.

All his calculations are flawed… It’s just a fact… he doen’t know anything about the industry he tries to be an expert on…

Boat on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 4:39 pm 



geo,

And you think DUCTs don’t exist and site a N Dakota agency that claims they don’t track them. Meanwhile MSM widely covers the DUCT surge phenomenon. How out of touch can an oil man be.

geopressure on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 4:45 pm 



Drilled, Uncompleted Wells exist, but the actual figure is probably around 100-200 wells, nationwide…

The Numbers are swollen & exaggerated by the powers-that-be to make potential investors think that oil has a very limited up-side, so they are less likely to buy oil or oil & gas related securities…

You apparently buy into the false reality that the Western Media is feeding you…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bYAQ-ZZtEU

Boat on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 5:19 pm 



No geo, closer to 4,000 although 2 oil companies are reported to lowering their DUCTs by a third.
There are no powers that be, only companies trying to make a buck.
When these companies decide to frack their wells and at what price is just a guess. They are responsible to their share holders. Not some phantom “powers that be”.

geopressure on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 5:38 pm 



(4,000 Wells)*($2.5 Million U$D in drilling cost) = $10 Billion Dollars… If you think that shareholders would be happy sinking that much $ into the ground without any return on their investment, then you are incorrect…

Boat on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 6:10 pm 



geo,

As further reporting is posted we will get an idea how these companies hanndle their fracklog.
ps. tarsands production continues to grow while they lose money. Drilling and fracking continue in the US in spite of low prices. So does 10 billion in fracklog suprise me? Not any more. Just facts on the ground.

Makati1 on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 6:26 pm 



Arguing barrels again when the real problem is Debt and the imminent collapse of the economy in many countries. “clowns to the left of me. Jokers to the right…”

Pass the popcorn.

shortonoil on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 6:45 pm 



”Shortonoil thinks that in a 4,000 ft well, energy to lift produced fluids 4,000 feet is required, he does not understand that the reservoir energy lifts the fluids most of the way.”

Do you think that they pressurize the wells so that they have “clean” oil to send to the refinery. You are either pumping “down” against 4000 feet of head, or pumping “up” against 4000 feet of head. The operative term here is “4000 feet of head”.

You should learn something about oil wells, hydrodynamics, thermodynamics or take a course in physics 101 before you start criticizing other posters. Or, stop trolling these sites. You sound like a complete idiot!

shortonoil on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 6:52 pm 



”Shortonoil thinks that Reservoir temperature is an important factor in whether or on a field will be economically viable or not & this is only true where oil is highly viscous – a very tiny percentage of oil fields.”

We can assume that you slept through the lecture on the Second Law. Along with the other 6 years of your education!

geopressure on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 7:15 pm 



Shortonoil’s logic is flawed in both cases…

A reservoir’s temperature does not figure into a field’s economics, I don’t care what the 2nd Law says…

There may be 4000′ of fluid in front of the pump, but the reservoir’s own pressure overcomes all but just a few feet of this… When you dig a hole in the ground, the hole fills up with water all by itself, it does not require a pump…

geopressure on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 7:17 pm 



Boat; Tar sands development continues at a loss because Obama has struck a deal with them – not because they like to loose money…

geopressure on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 7:19 pm 



Shortonoil, I have a degree in chemical engineering as well as years of field experience…

The experience is what you lack…

Boat on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 7:45 pm 



geo,

From what I read the economics of a tar sand project looks out 30 years or more. They factor in swings in the market. To me this makes much more sense than an Obama led deal. You got links for the deal?

Plantagenet on Sun, 17th Apr 2016 11:26 pm 



Did the Russian energy minister predict the current oil glut and the collapse in energy prices?

No?

Then his ability to predict future oil prices doesn’t seem to be very good.

Cheers!

GregT on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 12:40 am 



“Did the Russian energy minister predict the current oil glut and the collapse in energy prices?”

I wonder if the Russian Energy Minister predicted oil prices would be over twice as much today, as what they were just over one decade ago.

geopressure on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 1:40 am 



Did the Russian energy minister predict the current oil glut and the collapse in energy prices?

Of course he did, he has access to Russian Intel…

joe on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 1:40 am 



Oil only rises when economic growth rises, it only rises fast when supply is low and demand high, relatively. The modern paradigm is that we live alienated lives. We all go online and forget our neighbour next door who we are supposed to ignore at best, fear at worst, but never ask them in for a coffee. The internet itself is becoming nothing but a tool to isolate and target people for advertisers just as television did, its almost as useless. Fear of men praying to Mecca, is the alcohol of the modern age, it has replaced the Church as a tool to enforce orthdoxy, the orthodoxy is of course gathering up piles of electronic fiat currency by making sure the army has a purpose, but not a war.
There are many understandings of laws, but they are not paradigms. Oil is subject to the laws of physics, so is the Earth. Sad fact is that people will only change in a crisis, not on their own, for what sane animal would voluntarily choose to give up year round out of season produce and intentionally have fewer children in order to balance the age pyramid in 70 years? The uncontrolled parts of the world are spreading their people all over, those like China, Japan, America and Europe who took the road of birth control and family planning must now restock supplies of fresh sperm and egg producing ‘chickens’ from lower quality regions where education is valued but social hierarchy is prized ‘respect’ is the path and proof that God love them. Its a falsehood that kept us in darkness, because the man with the best horse and cart never wanted or cared about the need to build a steam engine. Ironically the future is likely to be a return to the past. As people forget todays troubles and issues, their reality will all they ever knew, they wont even care that at one time people dreamed of houses and cars, they will be too busy with their own problems, staying mobile as every decade they have to move house as the sea seems to always creep up and wash away the land.

dooma on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 4:57 am 



joe…breathe mate. 😉

Davy on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 5:33 am 



One has to respect the Russians on economic matters. Putin has made it clear he is going a different route to economic health. The drop in oil prices may have paradoxically been the best thing to happen to Russia by enforces fiscal sobriety. Sobriety always leads to smarter tougher people.

shortonoil on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 6:57 am 



”Shortonoil, I have a degree in chemical engineering as well as years of field experience…
The experience is what you lack…”

I’ll send you copies of my degrees if you send me copies of yours. Send them to the site from the commentary section:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

I’ll even throw in a few Ph. D. s from the other folks in the group.

For some one with a degree in chemical engineering you don’t have the common sense that God gave geese!

shortonoil on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 7:16 am 



”One has to respect the Russians on economic matters.”

That is undoubtedly true, but the Russians have the same problem as every other producer in the world. At $38 they can’t replace the reserves that they are extracting, and their fields are getting very old. The economics of this low priced environment is forcing them to push those very old fields very hard to generate the cash flow that they need to maintain the Russian society. Watching how the Russian’s handle this dilemma will be very instructive for the West whom will soon be facing the same situation.

Boat on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 10:38 am 



Why would you respect “Russians on economic matters”.

Most Russians would qualify for US food stamps. I don’t see Putin raising the quality of life for it’s citizens.

Davy on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 10:52 am 



Boat, have you listened to Putin lately? He is avoiding all the tricks the western central bankers are playing. He is making an effort to embrace economic fundamentals that are longer term oriented. He is not looking for quick fixes. Not that it likely matters significantly if the majority of the global system is going down the toilet but it will make Russia stronger in the longer term.

geopressure on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 10:56 am 



Shortonoil… I have no idea where my degree is, I actually don’t think I have ever seen it… I graduated & went to work in the oilfield – It was likely mailed to my parent’s house…

—
What you are saying about the 4000′ well is the same as this:

That if the ocean was 4000′ deep & someone put a pompon the bottom with a standpipe that went to the surface + 10′ above the surface…

You are saying that the pump would have to overcome 4010′ of head pressure in order to move water (+4010′ of friction inside the pipe)…

I’m saying that the pump would only have to overcome 10′ of head pressure (+4010′ of friction inside the pipe)…

I am right of course because there is 4000′ of pressure pushing on the pump’s intake… just as their is similar pressure pushing on an oilwell pump’s intake that does 90+% of the lifting from 4000’…

Which one of your Ph.D’s came up with your flawed logic???

PracticalMaina on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 11:17 am 



That’s why they still drill wells of over 100 EROEI with donkeys like they did back in the day, correct?

PracticalMaina on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 11:22 am 



If it does not require a high energy input to lift oil, why are stripper wells being priced out of the market?

geopressure on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 11:30 am 



About the Donkeys: YES

About the Stripper Wells: Stripper wells are relatively expensive to operated due to the cost of saltwater disposal, not saltwater lifting…

shortonoil on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 11:55 am 



”Shortonoil… I have no idea where my degree is, I actually don’t think I have ever seen it… I graduated & went to work in the oilfield – It was likely mailed to my parent’s house…”

Sure… what every professional engineer does after sweating through 4 or 5 years of hell, they lose their degree?? Was that because you thought that you would never need it again? But, for an engineer who doesn’t believe in the Second Law (which is sort of like the Pope not believing in the Crucifixion) it’s entirely possible.

Now I’ll tell one: it is elves that carry that oil up 4000 feet. It’s their second job after Santa has gone to bed!

geopressure on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 12:18 pm 



The 2nd Law has no bearing on whether or not most oil fields are economically viable…

You are trying to apply entropy to economics… Entropy has is not relevant to the balancing of a financial account…

You will understand all of this stuff a little better after you get some practical, real-word experience…

—
Not elves that move the fluid, it’s the pressure that is pushing on the pump intake…

Check your Fluid Dynamics Textbook, it should be covered in the first chapter…

Apneaman on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 12:27 pm 



Boat, you don’t see anything. You live in Huston in a privileged isolated techno carbon bubble. You often get things wrong about your own country. I’m supposed to believe you know something about the inner workings of a country half way around the world? A country you have never been to nor speak the language? You have almost 60 years of Uncle Sams finest indoctrination, much of it hysterical cold war fear and warmongering. Since kindergarten and maybe even before at home, you were taught the the Russians are evil commie bastards. You don’t even read books ffs. You don’t know, so stop pretending.

Northwest Resident on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 12:46 pm 



geopressure — Your posts constantly remind me of an on-again off-again poster on this site who goes by “Nony” and who is known to use sockpuppets and “facts” made up on the fly to advance his goofy points of view. Defining characteristics of Nony and his sockpuppets are:

1) Enjoys “debating” with, attacking and attempting to refute knowledgeable and insightful authorities who highlight the rapidly deteriorating energy situation

2) Tendency to nit-pick and squabble over very minor details while ignoring the catastrophic economic fiasco that is clearly related to the rapidly deteriorating energy situation

3) Attempts to portray himself as an oil industry expert

4) Engages in petty arguments over drilling techniques, fracking technologies and other oil industry related minutia that prove nothing except perhaps his own self-perceived “superior intellect and deep knowledge of the oil industry”

5) I prone to making repeated announcements on this forum to the effect that he is this time, most definitely, positively going to STOP, once and for all and for evermore, posting on this forum — only to reappear another month or two or three from that date

6) During the time that Nony swears off from posting on this forum and actually restrains himself from doing so (under the Nony moniker), one or more annoying sockpuppets take his place, advancing the same arguments, engaging in the same petty attacks and pompous posturing, exactly as you are doing

It is clear to me that you — geopressure — are an imposter and a self-taught hack. Previously, in one of your posts a month or two ago, you stated that “all I have taught myself about the oil industry” as a prelude to one of your absurd points of view. Now, today, suddenly have worked in the oil industry and are therefore an expert.

You’re a bad joke. Your credibility is next to zero. Give it up.

geopressure on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 12:50 pm 



Northwest Resident, Everyone knows you are a sock-puppet for ROCKMAN…

Care to weigh in on the conversation, Rockman? Or are you just jealous & trying to maintain a monopoly on being Peak-Oil’s oil & gas expert?

Apneaman on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 12:53 pm 



Boat, while you’re playing on the inter webs or counting barrels or whatever, there are teams of people strategically planning to bail your privileged lilly white ass out when the next consequences of AGW hit. Like I said, “privileged isolated techno carbon bubble”.

I’m not impressed. I consider these people enablers. Better to let y’all deal with it on your own. Help toughen you up for the future when it gets even worse.

rockman on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 12:53 pm 



Geopressure’s argument is sound. As usual, he is correct.

Apneaman on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 12:56 pm 



geo, you’re an irritating, no nothing, hyper conspiracy tard. Go play in the traffic.

Davy on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 1:14 pm 



Geo, NWR, has been around long before you drifted in. He is highly respected. You have to earn respect on this board not talk about it.

Apneaman on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 1:19 pm 



Boat, I forgot to post this link with my fine comment.

Red Cross prepares for potential Houston rain, flooding

“They are packing trucks and trailers full of everything storm victims may need in the coming days, including water, portable beds, blankets, medical supplies, soap, shampoo and toothpaste.

Right now, more than 50 Red Cross volunteers are ready to bring those needed items to victims of the storm.

“We don’t depend on the storm victims coming to us, we bring everything they need to them wherever they are… we bring the shelter and the help to them where they need it,” said Eric Oubre with the American Red Cross.”

http://www.click2houston.com/news/red-cross-prepares-for-potential-houston-rain-flooding

Even the rescuing is bigger N better in Texas.

antaris on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 2:47 pm 



Is that the real ROCKMAN or a puppet rockman ? In the past the real guy was all in capitals.

shortonoil on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 2:51 pm 



”The 2nd Law has no bearing on whether or not most oil fields are economically viable…
You are trying to apply entropy to economics… Entropy has is not relevant to the balancing of a financial account…”

What a really bizarre comment, from a supposed engineer – no less. The Second Law applies to every single piece, every aspect of the known universe. As a matter of fact there is no universe (as far as we know) without it. Your comments are ludicrous beyond comprehension. Find a hole, crawl in, and let entropy take its course. The rest of humanity has a huge energy crisis developing, and must deal with it. The irrational utterances of some self defined prophet are not going to help it.

PracticalMaina on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 2:55 pm 



No one is accusing you of being an expert GEO. We all remember how certain you were the SPR was empty.

Boat on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 3:03 pm 



ape,

I could care less about the inter workings. There is however lot’s of easy to find and easy to read information about every country. Skip the books and others opinions and develop your opinion. The numbers tell their own story without bias.

ps, the flood got the front entrance to the subdivision and a few homes. After research I picked out a home on a hill 20′ higher than those affected. I didn’t need a book on home buying, just used a little common sense.

Apneaman on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 3:45 pm 



Boat, you’re conflating again. If you had any common sense you would know and admit that there are some things you don’t know and can’t know.

Oh and BTW if you want numbers, look at the ones that clearly show the majority of mericans are poorly educated and unlearned.

Only a complete idiot would claim he don’t need books to learn. If you have never delved deep into a topic by thoroughly reading multiple books, by various authors with different angles then how could you know what your missing? If the founding fathers, who were voracious readers, came back today they would line everyone like you up and shoot you in the fucking head to rid the world of stupidity. No worries boat. In a collapsing society people who “know” things while bragging about their ignorance are in the majority – are common.

The most recent PISA results, from 2012, placed the U.S. an unimpressive 35th out of 64 countries in math and 27th in science. Among the 34 members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, which sponsors the PISA initiative, the U.S. ranked 27th in math and 20th in science.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2015/02/02/u-s-students-improving-slowly-in-math-and-science-but-still-lagging-internationally/

Human Attention Span Shortens To 8 Seconds Due To Digital Technology

http://www.medicaldaily.com/human-attention-span-shortens-8-seconds-due-digital-technology-3-ways-stay-focused-333474

Apneaman on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 3:48 pm 



Boat, soon people will need to carry around pictures of their wife and kids just to remember what they look like. It’s a new smartphone app, I’m developing. Gonna make millions.

Boat on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 5:25 pm 



ape,

The US has 40 million foreign immigrants. This huge number drive education numbers down. The good news is the following generation does fine.

The huge Mexican construction work force proves you don’t need an education to be a valued worker. Btw they use the latest in tech to do their jobs. Same with landscapers.

Another btw, the smart phone is as essential as a hammer. If you want to compete you gotta stay up with tech.

As to math and science the US has many of the worlds best collages. Don’t you worry about the o’l US. Well be fine.

Apneaman on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 6:18 pm 



Boat, I don’t have a smart phone or any phone for that matter. If someone wants me they can text to my email. I turn down work all the time. If you do quality work there is barley any competition in this day and age. I do all sorts of repair work from cars to computers to vacuum cleaners – the less physical the better. All the heavy stuff, I refer to a couple of my buddies. Never advertise – all word of mouth. I prefer cash too;).

Yeah boat, if not for the immigrants, silicone valley would be in India, since that’s where most of the brain power comes from. Indian and Chinese high school students are at the same level as 2nd and 3rd year Ivy league college students. Many of Americas top professors are foreign born.

Stop making shit up boat

Brain drain: Funding and industry leave America, followed by top minds

https://www.rt.com/op-edge/us-brain-drain-sequestration-739/

Is an Exodus of Ph.D.s Causing a Brain Drain in the U.S.?

https://newrepublic.com/article/119668/exodus-phds-causing-brain-drain-us

The Self-Inflicted U.S. Brain Drain
Up to 1.5 million skilled workers are stuck in immigration limbo. Many give up and go home.

http://www.wsj.com/articles/michael-s-malone-the-self-inflicted-u-s-brain-drain-1413414239

Boat on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 7:34 pm 



ape,

I have no problem with that kind of brain drain. They paid for that education, take it with you on the way out. I support no immigration. I love the idea of a lack of workers. Make business compete for skill. This is just a small step along the path of sustainability.

Apneaman on Mon, 18th Apr 2016 8:23 pm 



Boat, that technology that you claim is all important…..the next batch will come from elsewhere and they will rule. Make you their bitches. There was a reason US military intelligence pulled out all the stops to get as many German scientists to the US. You seem to have forgotten. Failing empires always do stupid shit like that. Pride cometh before the fall.

Boat says, we don’t need no stinking books and we don’t need no stinking smart foreigners. New technologies will invent themselves because god is on our side.

O SAY CAN YOU SEE…………………….