Robust Demand Tightening Oil Market, IEA Says

Stronger-than-expected demand has drained oil inventories to the lowest level since 2008, tightening the market and defying predictions of a glut, the West’s energy watchdog said on Thursday.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said oil inventories in the developed world plummeted by 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) in the last three months of 2013, the steepest quarterly decline since 1999.

The IEA, which advises most of the largest energy-consuming countries on energy policy, becomes the third major forecaster this week to predict higher oil use as economic growth picks up in Europe and the United States.

“Far from drowning in oil, markets have had to dig deeply into inventories to meet unexpectedly strong demand,” the IEA said in its monthly oil market report.

The IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand growth this year by 50,000 bpd to 1.3 million bpd.

That was boosted by a rebound in demand in North America and Europe after several years of declining consumption.

The Paris-based agency increased its estimate of the demand for oil from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) from last month’s report by 100,000 bpd to 29.6 million bpd .

“Demand has been stronger than expected, and we’re operating with low stock levels right now, which has been supportive for prices,” Antoine Halff, head of the IEA’s oil industry and markets division, told Reuters.

“Demand for OPEC crude looks stronger.”

Both OPEC and the U.S. Energy Information Administration raised their forecasts for 2014 demand in monthly reports this week.

NO GLUT

Growing oil production in North America had led some to predict international crude prices would fall in 2014, after averaging around $110 a barrel in each of the past three years.

But robust demand and supply problems in a number of OPEC countries have kept prices supported, the IEA said.

While output from Libya recovered in January to 500,000 bpd, Iraqi output fell by 140,000 bpd to 2.99 million bpd, the IEA said, and warned that exports from Libya were likely to continue to be constrained by political unrest in the country.

Output in Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s largest producer, fell by 60,000 bpd in January to 9.76 million bpd, the IEA said.

Halff said demand for OPEC crude oil could be even stronger in the coming months as companies moved to rebuild oil inventories to a more comfortable level.

The IEA kept its estimate for supply growth from countries outside of OPEC unchanged from last month, forecasting an increase of 1.7 million bpd this year.

“We’re going into a period of lower demand as refineries start maintenance after the winter,” Halff said.

“We need to rebuild stocks.”

Benchmark Brent crude oil prices were down about 0.5 percent on Thursday at $108.24 a barrel, slipping after hitting a month-high of $109.75 at the start of the week.

RIGZONE

40 Comments on "Robust Demand Tightening Oil Market, IEA Says"

cipi604 on Thu, 13th Feb 2014 9:06 pm 



No shit, Sherlock

Davy, Hermann, MO on Thu, 13th Feb 2014 10:08 pm 



You know the truth like reality cannot be suppressed. It can be manipulated, distorted, and hid but not for long because it is like water. You try to grab water and what happens. They will spin this as a demand issues. The production side of the equation will still be talked up as “living in a future of plenty”. You know Iraq, Brazil, Iran, US shale, and the artic will save the day! But what will happen is “egg on their face” when the boat starts sinking. There may be some lynching’s I mean that figuratively or do I?

MSN fanboy on Thu, 13th Feb 2014 11:58 pm 



Davy:”You know the truth like reality cannot be suppressed. It can be manipulated, distorted, and hid but not for long because it is like water. You try to grab water and what happens.”
Isnt this the stuff you doomers are pedalling…
The stigma of BAU to you guys is stupid, it has provided a far better life for Humanity than at any point in the last 10000 years. Capitalism is the ANSWER to our problems.
Global Warming does exist and is a GOOD thing too, at the very least increasing sales growth of AC units.
AC runs on electricity… PROVIDED BY RENEWABLE TECH SUCH AS SOLAR AND WIND.
That will also grow our Economy.
Infinite growth is possible, especially in the Knowledge economy as we re- design software with a multitude of applications that people will pay for.
Asteroid mining, need I go on?????
Stop pedalling your false prophecies, Truth like reality cannot be suppressed, and isn’t now. We haver Human rights, free speech (media) of Critically minded individuals.
Have any of you read Daniel Yergin???
Humanity will survive. Ill back up my points later with evidence.
Just try no to pedal your poisoned water to young minds.

Aaron on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 12:08 am 



Non-OPEC supply growth of 1.7mbpd? I wonder where that will materialise from.

ghung on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 12:19 am 



Here we go again. Steve’s “Triangle of Doom” playing out.

WTI back over $100…

Nony on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 12:56 am 



There’s no such thing as a “triangle of doom”. That chart shows some fundamental misunderstanding of microeconomics in trying to draw arbitrary up and down lines on a stochastic price chart and call them the supply and demand curves. Silly, just silly. Freshman economics book has more sophistication (and truth).

Stilgar Wilcox on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 1:56 am 



“NO GLUT – Growing oil production in North America had led some to predict international crude prices would fall in 2014”

Oh, so the 1.5-2% decline rate for existing fields ‘conjectured’ by Yergin (for his benefactors in the oil industry that he shills for) turned out to ACTUALLY be more like a whopping 5%, so the 2 mbd added by the US was not able to offset organic decline and increasing demand, so storage greatly decreased. Ring a ding, ding, any deniers for a little reality check?
Ha-ha!

Oh, but we can have our cake and eat it too, right? We can expect growth, which means more oil consumption, and new sources like the Bakken/Eagle Ford will mean we can throw peak oil caution to the wind, use as much as we want and oil price will still fall – NGGGGGGGG, not so fast because reality is now biting. Time for oil price to rise, the economy to contract, unemployment to rise, stocks to drop, QE to untaper (in a desperate last ditch attempt to provide a little more time for more fracking), but what do we have for the losers? A chaotic melee clamoring over our fellow citizens to get that last crispy crème and then back home on fumes to light candles, cry and prey…

Makati1 on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 2:17 am 



MSN, you need help or are you just trying to stir up a reaction to your sad comments? Either way, take off the blinders and face your fears before it is too late.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 2:28 am 



Back at you MSN One preachin ass to another

Dave Thompson on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 3:13 am 



In the Us demand typically does go down this time of year. Maintenance for the summer blend changeover starts now and soon prices will rise for the summer. All seems normal enough.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 3:19 am 



“Capitalism is the ANSWER to our problems.” — I get where you’re coming from, MSN fanboy. I used to be right where you are — without the need to lash out at those that disagreed with my point of view, however. Then I stepped outside of propaganda bubble and did a LOT of research. Now I see people who are still in the bubble, as you appear to be, and I feel compassion and pity for you. Hopefully, you’ll get a clue before it is too late. Hang out here for a while, cool down the rhetoric a little, read the articles and comments, debate actual facts — give yourself a chance.

noobtube on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 3:53 am 



MSN Fanboy…

That was a great sarcastic rant.

Love it.

Look forward to more posts like this to show the craziness of the BAU crowd.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 3:56 am 



N/R when someone like MSN lashes out at our bad news we immediately connect the dots. It is similar to people with faith and not. Often those that lack faith will attempt to discredit and smash any talk that is a threat to their beliefs. It may be because those beliefs are unstable and shaky. The meanest people are those that are the most insecure!

Northwest Resident on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 5:08 am 



Davy — Ain’t it the truth!

Keith_McClary on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 5:12 am 



MSN: We are familiar with Yergin. If you use the Google search at the top of this page you will find many discussions relating to him.

GregT on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 6:49 am 



MSN,

There are much better places for you to spend your time on the Internet. If you find the discussions here disturbing, better to move on to sites more comforting to your worldview. Freaking out on people about issues that you clearly cannot handle, isn’t going to help you.

Nony,

“Freshman economics book has more sophistication (and truth).”

Economics is the study of human greed. Nothing more. The truth is, human economics are fucking up our planet. The longer we keep prescribing to the flawed ideology of human economics, the less likely we will survive as a species. Nothing sophisticated about that, only immaturity.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 11:04 am 



GregT, good point for MSN. He might enjoy battling the enemy or just a lonely shit disturber.

GregT, economics is dangerous primarily because it acts as a science. It is held in overly high degree by society. Look what Wiki says:
Economics is the social science that studies how rational individuals, groups, and organizations (called economic actors, players, or agents), manage scarce resources, which have alternative uses, to achieve desirable ends.
I would barely call it a pseudo-science. It has failed man precisely for the same reason technology has and that is hubris. They believe we can transcend a finite plant with substitution and rational behavior. Technology is human hubris for the same reason but believes knowledge and invention will allow this transcendence. So in a sense both are modern alchemy. BTW, I have read allot about alchemy and there is a deeper side to it so not bashing it here just relating historic follies associated with it in the past. These two human inventions are a product of our overly large brain. IMHO this is an evolutionary dead end in a species who has not had the time to evolve to handle the ecosystem responsibility that comes with knowledge and technology. Economics is particularly dangerous now because it can be used as a very effective tool of deception. My degree was in finance and economics. The dull boring university study is nothing like what has evolved in global finance and economics today. It has evolved in to the biggest and most dangerous cults man has ever dreamed up. These cats are out of control and are now in charge. They are our new gods that are worshiped and looked to for salvation. So what we have is a pseudo-religion of greed devouring people, the ecosystem, and ruining our stable climate. When a collapse comes these folks will probably be held in low esteem or worse. Yet, human nature as it is there will be more snake oil salesmen pop up. A sucker is born every day and now we all are suckers.

MSN fanboy on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 11:59 am 



Davy Herman: “GregT, good point for MSN. He might enjoy battling the enemy or just a lonely shit disturber.”
Considering this site is supposed to be an informed discussion / argument. Why the hatred and coy comments.
I’ve been accused of wearing blinkers, yet the beautiful irony is this. (As shown by your reaction among others) is that at most, you’ve swapped (MY) apparent (Optimistic) Blinkers for an equally narrow-minded standpoint regarding this issue of “Collapse”…
So think for a moment. I will listen to a counter perspective (AND) take is AS MY OWN if I find it better than my current rationally justified beliefs.
But leave the childish behaviour at home.

MSN fanboy on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 12:01 pm 



And I choose to spend my time here because you disagree. I want to know why…. then going to green techia and hearing a chorus of yes men.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 12:04 pm 



Ah, MsN, we like you and it all in fun we argue here but you are climbing into a den of vipers if you want any support here!

meld on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 2:09 pm 



What an interesting year 2014 might be. Climate change battering the UK which will send up food prices and then the shale bubble due to burst later this year. Glad I’m not a politician.

meld on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 2:20 pm 



MSN fanboy

Regarding Daniel Yergin, yes many of us have heard and read his comedy pieces. He’s a bit of a Joke on these forums due to his consistent inability to predict oil prices correctly and yet still have people listen to him.

There is no solution to the predicament I’m afraid, just a continuation of the same old human script of civilisation growth and decline that has been ours and every creature on this planets hallmark for aeons. The world won’t end, but nor will it continue as it has done for the last two centuries. Evolution favours the most adaptable and the most adaptable can see the writing on the wall quite clearly and have been adapting over the last few decades for a low energy post industrial future.

If you think green tech is going to save this Civ. then I suggest you head over to the Holy Ray Kurzweil forums and be comforted by his message of eternal life and journey into the stars (now where have I heard that ditty before)

Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 2:32 pm 



You got MSN covered Meld! I agree with you on 2014. The variables are in place for a roller coaster ride…hold on..don’t puk

Northwest Resident on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 2:54 pm 



MSN fanboy — If you’re liking capitalism so much and thinking it is what will save us, please try to explain how capitalism is going to pay off the trillions in debt that countries around the world have accumulated — debt that is only growing exponentially. Capitalism — the result of individual humans striving to consume more resources than those around them in a death match competition — is the reason for our pathetic financial situation, not the solution. Surely you see that.

rockman on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 3:22 pm 



For all: I’m glad MSN found us. Sometimes we do get a little giddy with the vast supportive gathering we have here so it’s good to have someone thrown a bucket of cold water on us from time to time. If nothing else it helps us to tighten up our verbiage a bit.

MSN: Quick background about the Rockman – 4 decades petroleum geologist currently working for a private company. Never cared one bit about the date of PO…totally irrelevant IMHO. Always thought those debates were a huge waste of time. Shocked by the surge in US production from the unconventional reservoirs? Hardly. Frac’d my first Eagle Ford well 25 years ago. Horizontally drilled and frac’d similar rocks many times 20 years ago in Texas. Knew the oil/NG was there just like every other geologist in Texas.

Now the BUT. But what I focus on is the dynamic between price, drilling activity, economic activity and political policies. The increases in US production as well as expanded global drilling efforts were very predictable. Now the IF: if one had projected at 300% increase in the price of oil and a 400% increase in the price of NG. So yes…nice increases in US and global production. All it required was for the cost of oil to all the consumers on the planet to increase by $2.2 TRILLION per year in just the last 10 years.

I’m sure you’re pleased that the US is importing much less oil than we were 10 years ago. Unfortunately while we may be importing fewer bbls we are sending more US $’s abroad to buy our oil imports than we were 10 years ago. And 10 years ago US oil consumers were burning 20 million bbls /year. Now we’re down to around 18.5 million bbls/year. So saving a lot of money, eh? Not hardly. A decade ago US oil consumers were paying $220 billion/year. Today they are paying $640 billion/year.

I couldn’t care less when the date of PO was or will be reached. I couldn’t care less how much oil we produce from the shales. I couldn’t care less that the world is producing more oil today than ever before. What I focus on is the economy. That’s what affecting me and everyone around me. And that is dominated by the price of energy. Our political base has also been so focused for a long time. Thus explaining the $trillions of taxes and many thousands of lives expended on various military adventures in oil producing regions.

So, again, couldn’t care less about PO. But care a great deal about the POD…Peak Oil Dynamic. Which is the relationship I just alluded to above. Some folks think the “POD” is a silly acronym. I really can’t argue much with that. But it’s lot easier to just type “POD” then to put down several hundred words describing that complex relationship so I think I’ll stay with it. You appear to be articulate so I’m curious to hear what your take on the POD may be.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 3:26 pm 



@Rock I appreciate the new term to chew on and roll around in my goofy brain “Peak Oil Dynamic”. It fits in very well with my finance and systems view…Thanks

rockman on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 5:12 pm 



Davy – I came up with the POD in my Oil Drum days. Some folks didn’t like it because it was too inclusive. But given what you do for a living how do you analyze any system with looking at the interaction of all the significant parts? There’s nothing magical or incisive about the POD. It’s just an easy short hand for all those components. But it’s the combined effect of those components that paint our energy situation. The increase in the price of oil is controlled by various factors and not just PO. The global/US economies are controlled by more than the price of energy. The global politics are heavily affected by the price of oil and access to it but there are many critical elements. And then there are the inevitable feedback loops (both positive and negative) that drive the dynamics.

I could on and on explaining all those different relationships right now. Just a lot easier to refer to it all as the POD.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 5:24 pm 



@Rock, at this juncture it is the best term I have found yet. If you understand all the nuances of PO you have to move up the ladder to a term like POD.

Mike2 on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 6:23 pm 



“… that paint our energy situation. ” -Oh my, God, and we all gona die! ;-))
Rock, how much costs a NG-car more than a gas car right now?? There is more NG in the world than oil, and if NG goes on short we will make el. and NG from coal. -So: when is Peak coal? -anyhow near to us?
The energy situation is a permanent changing market since it beginnings but I don’t see anything there that will spell doom to us. At least not in principle but maybe by political failure.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 6:57 pm 



Mike, lots of good reads on Coal supply in last few years. We are nudging close to PCD (peak coal dynamics). I am plagiarizing Rock’s concept of POD. What I understand as the cost escalate there are many coal reserves that will not be economical to mine soon. Many are under sensitive lands. The 200 yrs of coal for America is BS. Hienberg did an excellent study in his Book “Blackout” also Google “Energy Watch Group”, CiTi’s report, Aspo’s report, Clean Energy action, Uppsala University report, and others I missed.

But probably still too much can be mined to prevent decent mitigation of AGW.

GregT on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 8:10 pm 



MSN Fanboy,

Ok, I’ll play.

“The stigma of BAU to you guys is stupid, it has provided a far better life for Humanity than at any point in the last 10000 years.”

There are still plenty of cultures left on this planet that would disagree with your views. They clearly see the destruction that BAU is causing the Earth, they understand that the Earth is the giver of life, and a sick or dead Earth, equates to a sick or dead end future, for all of humanity.

I would agree that we live more comfortable lives than in the past, but to say that life is better, is arguable. Better for whom? First world nations have always exploited other peoples, so while WE may enjoy all of the niceties of modern industrial society, someone, somewhere else, is paying for it. Also, as with everything in life, there are trade offs, and there are balances. Our lives have become so complicated and overshadowed by materialism, that we have lost spirituality, love, respect, and empathy. We ignore the difficult questions of the very reasons for our existence, and replace them with the instant, but short lived gratifications, of material possessions. Possessions that we can’t take with us, that in many cases, are only robbing our children of resources that they will need for their future well being. Now THAT is what is truly stupid.

“Global Warming does exist and is a GOOD thing too, at the very least increasing sales growth of AC units………….That will also grow our Economy.”

If you have any knowledge of climate change, it most certainly is not reflected in this statement. There are plenty of peer reviewed scientific papers available for you to read to get up to speed. If you choose to not consider the research, that is your choice, you are definitely not alone, but making statements such as the above does nothing more than expose your ignorance on the subject.

“Infinite growth is possible”

Infinite exponential growth may be possible, in an infinite universe. So far, no one has proven the universe to be infinite, and even if it were, we would not have the means to access all of it. We live on a finite planet, with finite resources and energy. Infinite growth in a finite environment is a mathematical and physical impossibility. You can go on ‘believing’ otherwise, but your beliefs would have no basis what-so-ever in reality.

“Humanity will survive. Ill back up my points later with evidence.”

Considering the fact that none of us knows what the future has in store, making a statement such as ‘humanity will survive’ is as meaningful as saying that ‘humanity will perish’. If history proves to be any indication of the future, it is much more realistic, however, to say that ‘humanity will perish’, eventually. All good things come to an end, that is the reality of the universe that we live in.

Now, whether humanity will survive the bottleneck that we have imposed upon ourselves, is another question entirely. At this point in time, our future is not looking overly optimistic. We do, however, have a chance to change things for the positive, but no action on our parts to make positive changes, is pointing to the continuation of the man made extinction event that we are currently experiencing. Eventually the natural environment will reach tipping points, and if/when that happens, we are done as a species on this planet.

“Ill back up my points later with evidence.”

Please do, I, for one, look forward to seeing your “evidence”.

“Just try no to pedal your poisoned water to young minds.”

Nobody here is attempting to ‘pedal’ anything on anybody. We have all come to conclusions based on our own personal experiences, and quests for knowledge and understanding. This is a place where people can discuss what they see going on around them. Everyone is welcome to come to their own conclusions.

If you have information that is ‘good’ enough that it can sway peoples opinions, please feel free to share. If not, and all you can come up with is the use of ad hominem attacks and simple rhetoric, please move on.

Mike2 on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 8:12 pm 



Energy Watchgroup and Aspo,..:-)))) have the ever been right? LOL
Read hubbert “on fossile fuels an nuclear”, no mater if you care about AGW or not, but we will never go short on energy, -at least not in principle.

GregT on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 8:42 pm 



Mike2,

As long as the Sun still shines, we will not run out of energy. We will run out of food, water, and resources though, if we keep burning everything in sight.

Mike2 on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 8:58 pm 



@GregT: I have studied some semiconductor physics, but I can say to you, that it is quite hard to build a solarcell that is energy-price competitive to any other energysource. At least this works for some alpine outposts where helicopeters have to transport fueloil to power ineffective aggregates with it. -But in the grid? How can you store such amounts of energy for all the days in winter when no sun shines and now wind blows? -That can’t be done by now and if, you have to flood all the alps high-valleys with artificial lakes drowning all life there. This is not the way I want to enjoy my alps and more important: all the silicon, the gridconnecter electronics, mounting material, electric energy storage,…all this is not for free, even if funny guys says that “the sun wood have no price” -LOL

GregT on Fri, 14th Feb 2014 9:37 pm 



Mike,

I wasn’t talking about PV solar energy, I was referring to ‘current’ solar energy. The energy required for all living things on this planet.

All of the stuff that we are burning, including the fossil fuels used to extract, refine, and manufacture resources into the building of an electric grid, are doing the opposite. They are killing all living things on this planet. Slowly, but surely.

Davey on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 12:40 am 



Greg, I feel like you about the rape of our mother but should we be crying over spilled milk? If you became supreme leader we could right the wrongs. In the mean time. How do we adjust , mitigate, and adapt to this nightmare? For humans and all species. None of us had any hand in this natural phenomenon. It unfolded from a self organizing system that itself is part of a greater system. All together these systems are cycling. We are set for a break to a new equilibrium of lower complexity. The scary part for us all is getting from here to there

GregT on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 1:32 am 



Davey,

I agree with you, there is no point in crying over spilled milk, but that doesn’t mean one should pretend that it hasn’t been spilled. Eventually it will need to be cleaned up.

IMHO, the best place to start is individually. Learn how to be as self sufficient as possible, get involved in a small local community, and move away from largely populated areas. Or at least be prepared to do so if need be.

Live life to it’s fullest, take care of those around you, hope for the best, and prepare for the worst. Just like everyone always should have been doing all along.

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 3:11 am 



sounds good to me GregT

MKohnen on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 6:21 am 



There are some guys on this site with their head up their ‘arses.’ You can spot them because they like to use terms like ‘doomers’, and they repeat the mantra that technology will save us over and over.

Well here’s a little story for ya:
Back in the mid 70’s, when I was a younger lad, my dad and I watched a show on TV about the cod fishery off the Grand Banks. It was produced by the Dept. of Fisheries, and extolled the miracle of ‘factory ships’ that were able to haul in massive catches of cod and fully process the fish right on board. It was stated that Canada already had 11 of these ships, with more to come.

My dad was entranced by the miracle of technology that was allowing us to provide so much for so many with so little. I, on the other hand, was aghast. “If we’re using ships that huge to catch the cod, and so are all the other countries fishing the Grand Banks, how can the fish survive?” I asked plaintively. “Oh, son,” came the cornucopian answer, “there are more cod off the Grand Banks than we can ever hope to catch. Cod truly are a never ending resource.” You probably know why that answer has stuck with me so compellingly through all these years. Or, MSN Fanboy, maybe you don’t. Maybe you should do some research regarding the cod fishery and its fate. Maybe then you can tell me how better technology ensured we could catch more and more eternally, cause the lesson I came away with was that technology can just as easily destroy us. And, yes, even with completely renewable resources like cod (maybe you think oil is renewable, too, but that’s your problem) it’s possible to deplete it.

Oh, and BTW, there are still cod in the ocean, just like there will still be oil in the ground post-peak. So if you’re so hot on capitalism and technology, gather together all the loot you can, go to Newfoundland, and invest in a state-of-the-art cod fishing ship. That’d really be putting your money where your mouth is. Go ahead, I dare you!

Davy, Hermann, MO on Sat, 15th Feb 2014 12:20 pm 



@MKohnen, yea man, technology just allows us to do what we used to do but more effectively and intensely. It is our brains that are the problem. If the part of our brain that is rational had developed more without the need for an expensive education maybe we could have properly applied many of these technologies. Instead we exploit the commons to excess due to competition. Has it ever been any different except in localized situations? We are still juvenile as a society and people we should not be allowed all these tool knowledge as found. It would be ok if it were just ourselves we are destroying but it is all of life on this beautiful planet. You know these doom bashers must admit there is a “Houston we have a problem going on”? If not, hell, they are blind. I may be blinded by a compulsion to doom but I admit there is a problem. I sleep good most of the time because I am optimistic we have between 5 and 10 years. P.S. typical predictions are you know 5-10 years. These are safe. But, really folks I think we will follow an energy gradient subject to financial dynamics. Thanks Rock for that dynamics thing it is tickling my brain!