Robert Rapier: The Long Recession Oil Prices Too Expensive For the World Economy

5 Comments on "Robert Rapier: The Long Recession Oil Prices Too Expensive For the World Economy"

Bob on Sat, 9th Nov 2013 10:14 pm 



You need cheap oil to advance the transition out of a oil based economy. So if you are transitioning from expensive oil the economy will never recover and continue to fall in a ever greater depression.

DC on Sun, 10th Nov 2013 1:31 am 



Demand has ‘fallen’ for us, because a great deal of the oil used in the ‘west’ is for trivial and frankly, wasteful pursuits. Now of course, this is rather bad news for those that keep hoping for a return of a credit card funded discretionary spending boom, but there is little to be done at this point. The other problem for this scenario, is prices are rising a LOT faster in the not-discretionary part of the economy, not just oil. Food is a perfect example.

Ie real inflation. So while its handy to go OIL!, there are other things happening in the economy as well. High oil prices aren’t the only drag on the economy atn. High food prices, bailouts for banks and auto and oil corporations-etc. There are other structural issues that ‘high’ oil costs are certainly exacerbating, but that is hardly the only thing going on here.

Perhaps a better way to look at is, it is not such much that demand has fallen, but rather it is drifting downwards towards a more realistic level(for us anyhow). We still have a lot of ‘fat’ to lose, and its going to happen whether we want it to or not, unfortunately.

stilgar wilcox on Sun, 10th Nov 2013 2:53 am 



“It take time and is expensive making the transition, but we get to a point where the price of oil does not affect our economy so much.”

So we just go right past needing oil? What fuels shipping, trains, paving roads, tires, other industries requiring oil, etc.? We’re vacationing in Hawaii right now. I’ve filled up the tank 3 times already. Will I drive from Kona to Hilo on a battery charge?

BillT on Sun, 10th Nov 2013 3:26 am 



stilgar, you just won’t go to Hawaii anymore. Problem solved.

The globalization of the past was built on cheap, plentiful oil energy. So was the ever increasing ‘standard of living’ in the West. Both are now sliding into history with the advent of expensive, declining oil energy. It was fun while it lasted, but the party is over.

stilgar wilcox on Sun, 10th Nov 2013 9:50 am 



No more trips to Hawaii, yes that’s probably true.

On another note, I realized something about people on this trip. There were young turtles feeding on algae growing on the rocks and people started gathering to watch. Then these kids started getting closer and one of them reached for one of the turtles.

Not one of the kid’s parents (because over-indulging kids is apparently part of the new parenting plan) but some other woman said, “You can’t touch the turtles. That’s against the law. Their very rare now.”

Upon reflection of that moment, I realized humankind is always going through the same process. At first there were 10’s of thousands of turtles in Hawaii, then Europeans used ingenuity to process, cook, sell etc. this new resource, and greed reduced their numbers to rarity. Then ingenuity kicks in again to try and save the turtles with laws and special handling when born, etc.

But that cycle of discovery, ingenuity, greed, ingenuity, never changes. There are no examples I can think of our species ever discovering a resource without greed driving that species close to or into extinction. And now we have used FF for about 150 years via that same process and now greed continues to use the stuff in ever greater amounts in spite of climate change or higher price concerns, while ingenuity tries to circumvent those repercussions.

Wouldn’t it be ironic if the same process by which we initiated this 6th great extinction, also caused us to become endangered? Then ingenuity would really have to kick into high gear to save our cans and some of the other species.