This is another essay from our friend Dr. Nelson Lebo III in New Zealand. Nelson is a certified expert in everything to do with resilience, especially how to build a home and a community designed to withstand disasters, be they natural or man-made, an earthquake or Baltimore. Aware that he may rub quite a few people the wrong way, he explains here why he has shifted from seeing what he does in the context of sustainability, to that of resilience. There’s something profoundly dark in that shift, but it’s not all bad.
Nelson Lebo III: Sustainability is so 2007. Those were the heady days before the Global Financial Crisis, before $2-plus/litre petrol here in New Zealand, before the failed Copenhagen Climate Summit, before the Christchurch earthquakes, before the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement (TPP)…the list continues.
Since 2008, informed conversations on the economy, the environment, and energy have shifted from ‘sustainability’ to ‘resilience’. There are undoubtedly many reasons for this shift, but I’ll focus on just two: undeniable trends and a loss of faith. Let me explain.
Since 2008, most of the pre-existing trends in income inequality, extreme weather events and energy price volatility have ramped up. Sustainability is about halting and reversing these trends, but there is essentially no evidence of that type of progress, and in fact the data shows the opposite.
Plenty of quantitative data exists for the last seven years to document these accelerated trends, the most obvious is the continually widening gap between rich and poor everyone else. The second wave of commentary on the Baltimore riots (after the superficiality of the mainstream media) has been about the lack of economic activity and opportunity in many of the largely African-American neighbourhoods.
Tensions have been simmering for years (decades) and overzealous police activity appears to have been just been the spark. This should come as no surprise to anyone who has read The Spirit Level, or any similar research on the correlation between wealth inequality and social problems.
You can only push people so far before they crack. For residents of Baltimore’s disadvantaged neighbourhoods the inequities are obvious. People are not dumb. We can see the writing on the wall, and know for the most part that government on every level has not taken significant steps to embrace sustainability be it economic, environmental or social . To me it seems we are running on the fumes of debt on all three: over-extended financially on nearly all levels; over-extended on carbon emissions (and post oil peak); and a powder keg of social unrest waiting for a tipping point.
Which brings me to my second point: a loss of faith.
For most of my adult life I have banged the drum for sustainability. I don’t anymore. Sustainability is about voluntarily balancing three factors: human needs, environmental health, and economic viability. My observation is that it has been a failed movement and that the conversation has naturally shifted to resilience.
These observations do not come casually. I have worked full-time in the environmental/sustainability/resilience field for twenty-five years and I have a PhD in science and sustainability education.
Dennis Meadows, a well-known scientist who has been documenting unsustainable trends for over 40 years, puts it this way:
The problem that faces our societies is that we have developed industries and policies that were appropriate at a certain moment, but now start to reduce human welfare, like for example the oil and car industry. Their political and financial power is so great and they can prevent change. It is my expectation that they will succeed. This means that we are going to evolve through crisis, not through proactive change.
This is the same quote that Ilargi recently highlighted here at The Automatic Earth. Clearly it resonated with me.
This is not to say we cannot and should not be proactive. It is more about where we direct our ‘proactions.’ Being proactive about resilience means protecting one’s self, one’s family, and one’s community from the trends that make us vulnerable economically, socially and environmentally, as well as to sudden shocks to the system.
The recent earthquake in Nepal is another reminder of the critical importance of resilience. Before that it was Christchurch and Fukushima. In the wake of earthquakes we often hear about a lack of food and water in the effected area, along with disruptions to energy supplies in the wider region. In Nepal these have lead to significant social unrest.
Whether it is Kathmandu over the last month or New Orleans after Katrina, we know that we cannot count on “the government” for significant assistance in the immediate aftermath of natural disasters. Along the same lines, we cannot count on governments to protect us from unnatural disasters such as the TPP and TTIP.
Whether it is a potential earthquake or the next mega-storm and flood, the more prepared (ie, resilient) we are the better we will get through. Even rising energy prices and the probable effects of the TPP will siphon off money from our city and exacerbate social problems in our communities.
In most cases, the same strategies that contribute to resilience also contribute to a more ‘sustainable’ lifestyle. But where for most people sustainability is largely abstract and cerebral, resilience is more tangible. Perhaps that’s why more and more people are gravitating toward it.
Resilience is the new black.
A resilient home is one that protects its occupants’ health and wealth. From this perspective, the home would have adequate insulation, proper curtaining, Energy Star appliances, energy-efficient light bulbs, and an efficient heater. By investing in these things we are protecting our family’s health as well as future-proofing our power bills. Come what may, we are likely to weather the storm.
Beyond the above steps, a resilient household also collects rainwater, grows some of its own food, and has back-up systems for cooking and heating. When we did up an abandoned villa in Castlecliff, Whanganui, we included a 1,000 litre rain water tank, three independent heat sources, seven different ways to cook (ok, I got a little carried away), and a property brimming with fresh fruit and vege. These came on top of a warm, dry, home and a power bill of $27 per month. (We did it all for about half the cost of an average home in the city.)
A loss of power and water for two or three days would hardly be noticeable. A doubling of electricity or fresh vege prices would be a blip on the radar. During the record cold week in 2011 our home was heated for free by sunshine.
Sustainability may be warm and fuzzy, but resilience gets down to the brass tacks.
Above all else, I am deeply practical and conservative. The questions I ask are: does it work?; is it affordable?; can I fix it myself?; and, importantly, is it replicable? Over the last decade I have developed highly resilient properties in North America and New Zealand. All of these properties have been shared as examples of holistic, regenerative permaculture design and management. We have shared our experience locally using open-homes, workshops and property tours, as well as globally through the internet.
When the proverbial sh*t hits the fan, which all the trends tell us will happen, I know that I have done my best to help my family and community weather any storm be it a typhoon, an earthquake, rising energy prices, or the TPP.
ghung on Mon, 11th May 2015 8:18 am
Kudos to Dr. Lebo, even if he was a little slow on the uptake regarding our collective overshoot trend. “Sustainability” is about fixing things; “resilience” is about enduring and surviving best one can. Overshoot can’t be fixed; has absolutely no regard for needs, wants, or hopes.
Davy on Mon, 11th May 2015 8:31 am
There is nothing we can do folks but at the local and individual level to try to buy some time for you and yours. At a societal level we are done. The prescription is a draconian drop in consumption and population meaning the end of BAU. We can choose to mitigate and adapt to the ugly effects of collapse at all levels.
This will likely not happen because governments are devoted to growth to save their asses and most people are devoted to maintaining their wealth. We can just try to enjoy life while we can and in the back of our mind know there is ugly ahead but block it out. The only things that can be done at this point is adaptation and mitigation at all levels. The greens are full of as much shit as the browns because they want BAU comforts with complexity and energy intensity. BAU is not reality anymore green or brown.
I can’t figure out how much time we have. I am thinking 5-10 but I thought that 5-10 years ago. BAU’s grip on life is strong with lots of momentum and inertia to change. I have come to the point where I am dooming and prepping and in the process enjoying every friggen day I can because I am thinking there is not much time left.
I am not even sure why I am dooming and preachin prep here on PO. I feel it is a legitimate effort I can do to get something out to others. Prep can buy you time if you love life so you can love life just a little more. Doom can get you out of denial to face the ugly ahead. It can also scare the poop out of you. I am sure it annoys some because it is redundant and consistent. Some it interferes with their delusions so it is a constant thorn in their message of BAU green, brown, and or God will rescue us.
BAU is dead folks. No hope with her pulling out of this. We are jumping off the cliff into the abyss. We will land somewhere and that will depend on your local and your level of prep. Prep only means the potential to buy a little time. Many that have prepped are going to see the same ends as those that haven’t. Some lucky ones will buy some time short term and an even smaller lucky few many transition into the longer term because of prep.
People that say prep is useless then good luck counting on luck. Many of these people are too lazy to do anything or unable to prep so they say prep is useless. Many don’t see a problem and they are bought into a progress of manifest destiny of human exceptionalism overcoming nature where ever she threatens our dominance. Then there are the folks that realize they are powerless and no hope so why worry.
I will say this again. There is nothing that can be done but mitigation and adaptation to a quick or generational required massive drop in population and consumption. This will happen naturally or by man but it will happen. The effects will be horrible and it will be in a 1000 different ways per your locals. Many locals have no hope but some do have some hope. WTF, this is an extinction event plain and simple. There is only one way extinction events play out. Extinction means death and complexity destruction at all levels. This means if your local has some hope then prep stupid and get out of your denial.
paulo1 on Mon, 11th May 2015 8:54 am
Davy,
I don’t share your doom on this. Yes, there will be great upheavel and a huge reset. Yes, there is way too great of population, ourselves (me and you, buddy) included. Yes, a large amount of that population appears parasitic and contributes little to much of anything. However, I never discount the ingenuity of individuals and apparent luck….as well as resilience.
Some will come out of this okay in certain locations. It is up to individuals to pick a pro-active place to begin setting down roots and options. I am not talking about those stupid bug-out doomsteads so in vogue these days. I am thinking of a pioneer spirit; “yes, this is a good place to live….I think we can do okay here….with some work and ________”. Then start filling in the blanks as many have done for years in a varietry of settings.
As an example. Today I need some framing lumber. I plan to also include an extra 50lbs box of 3 1/4 galv. commons just to have. I have various boxes of all kinds of fasteners and stores. Between my family we could outfit a hardware store. That one part of the ‘blank’ can be crossed of the list. Add to that water, food, growing ability, repair and construction skills, and in Ghung’s case his own source of power.
It is just a smart and efficient way to live, (+ fun and satisfying) and is suitable for good and/or bad times.
Folks sitting around waiting for FEMA or a program to guide them through tough times, well not too wise of plan imho.
Davy on Mon, 11th May 2015 9:18 am
I appreciate your optimism Paulo. It will take a pioneer spirt to navigate what is ahead. If BAU’s demise is slow and drown out your attitude and others will be critical for lifeboats, monasteries of knowledge, and reservoirs of real hopium.
BTW, Paulo, I have also been stocking up on all manner of hardware, supplies, and tools. There could be for trade, barter, and or use. Folks, if you are a prepper don’t be affraid to be a consumer. Invest in the physical with a future. I know consumerism is killing the planet but it’s days are numbered. Buying goods with a future will be essential to future survival.
As for the Davy doom rants I do get obsessive and redundant but I get bombarded with so much BAU bullshit I feel compelled to speak out against the lies, distortions, and delusions.
Lawfish1964 on Mon, 11th May 2015 3:59 pm
I agree with Paulo. I was heading toward the doomer shack in the woods until it dawned on me that my house was built before air conditioning existed and was therefore a great structure to hang onto for when power gets too scarce to run AC. The house was built in 1931 and sits under 3 giant live oak trees. It’s completely shaded and with windows open in the summer, I doubt it would get warmer than 80 degrees during the day.
It also has a basement that’s 8 feet deep and about 250 square feet. The perfect food storage cellar, literally built into the steep hill on which the house is sited. I lack sufficient property to grow all the food needed for a 4 person family, but if the SHTF, there’s a 1/4 acre vacant lot right next to me, owned by a rich banking heiress. I’m sure she would be fine with me cultivating that property in return for a share.
I also recently discovered that my power tiller is not such a great tool. You can’t weed out dollar weed with a tiller. Much better to get down on your knees and till that dirt by hand. Add 8 chickens and a pig and I’m good to go!
Davy on Mon, 11th May 2015 6:45 pm
Law, just remember the longer term prep is majority local community IOW are your immediate local neighborhood resilient and sustainable or can be made that way? I have a farm/doomstead but being part of a solid community is a valid option also.
Aire on Mon, 11th May 2015 10:52 pm
I’ve gotta say it plain and simple paulo 1,.. that’s idiotic talk. You agree the planet and its populations have problems and are the root but for some reason say some will be unaffected. Don’t you realize there’s almost no such thing as isolationism. There’s just too many of us humans with dangerous weapons. NO ONE is safe. Especially, as a planetary climate tipping point messes with the ENTIRE planet. Hard times are coming for us all if not extinction within a relatively short period.
Davy on Tue, 12th May 2015 5:51 am
Air, I feel it will be a multi fruit smoothie. The world has gotten small with globalism. The connectivity physically with vehicles and digitally with devises has given us the ability to be most anywhere on earth within a day. Yet, our lives for majority of people are local. Take away the connectivity of BAU and we go extremely local quick.
This kind of descent could happen very quickly. When fuel, food, and grid instability starts life will slow down and shrink. This is why knowing your local is so essential to survival. We are currently under the mistaken assumption we can move quickly or be aided by our neighboring states. This will greatly reduce or end when life shrinks. A crisis may be broad based and global. If that occurs all locals will be in a struggle with survival.
Many times in these situations there will be predation from stronger locals on weaker locals or migration of less affluent locals to more affluent locals stressing them. Many locals will be unsupportable and in dangerous security situations. I feel all mega cities will be this way. If you live in the heart of New York City you will be in a local that cannot be supported. A location like Paulo explains is likely relatively safer. My local is pretty good as far as being supported and security. No local will be guaranteed safe or supportable. This will just be a relative condition that will exist in relation to acts of God and luck of the draw. You may be in a very supportable local that is safe and a hurricane strikes with little hope of aid or reconstruction.
Time frame matters also. A long drawn out descent like Kunstler’s Long Emergency will initially favor the larger urban areas with the complexity, energy intensity, and power centers. Rural areas may be cut off in hypothermic reactivity of husbanding resources in a triage of locals with value to the power centers. Current locals without support value to the power center will not have support with a rapidly shrinking pie. Military martial law will only secure what is securable per their force strength.
This does not mean the locals that are cut off will not adapt and survive. I am just saying a time frame of slower descent will favor larger urban areas. Eventually it will not favor larger urban areas because the resources will not be there to support them even with the power centers. You need only look to how large cities were pre-fossil fuels to see the reductions needed. These cities were in a stable human ecosystem environments so future cities in a collapse will have to be much smaller. We don’t have the technology, the networks, or the resources they had without fossil fuels.
We will be starting over in a hybrid of new and old. Your local now is what you may have. Study it closely for security, food support, energy, and natural disaster potential. The energy I am referring to concerns heating, cooling, and food preparations. Is there enough wood around? Is the climate hospitable without heating or cooling? Water will be extremely important. If you are out on the Great Plains and the electric pumps shit on you what then. Without water your local will have to disperse. So many locations are unsupportable because of water. Many local will have the right combinations, the right luck of the draw and spared acts of God.
This descent is like trying to predict AGW climate change. We can only infer and predict. What shakes out has too many variables to predict. We can predict what locals have sustainability just like we can say Miami is shit out of luck with sea level increases. What you as a local must do is study your local for sustainability and resilience and prep accordingly. If this descent collapse is 10 years out maybe you want to just enjoy what you have since there is no guarantee prep will succeed. I enjoy prepping so for me it is natural. I want to live a 19th century life. In many ways I want to go back to the land and closer to nature. Simpler living with basic happiness. Of course what is ahead will not be so sweet and wholesome. What is ahead will be a struggle.
I guess in the end follow your heart. If you like denial deny there is a problem. If you like reality realize the tradeoffs. The tradeoffs will be do I prep or do I enjoy what I have now. It will be about no choice or choices but no guarantees either way. You can increase the odds in your favor for sure but there is still probabilities. No clear answers or solutions just life.
Lawfish1964 on Tue, 12th May 2015 7:16 am
Davy, I’ve assessed my local and it’s strong. I actually have 3 options. The third is to bug out to my family beach house and fish every day and trade the surplus for carbs and grow some veggies on the poor, sandy soil there. We have a large-gauge legal Seine net that we know how to use and we catch way more fish than we can eat ourselves. I’ve thought about the defensibility of that local and it’s excellent. It’s a peninsula, so there’s a natural land choke point that could be easily guarded. The shore can be defended easily too because the other choke point is a narrow channel into the bay.
My in-town local is an enclave neighborhood built early in my town’s history. It is fenced on all sides and has only two entrances, each of which could be easily guarded. In the center is a large park that could easily grow enough food for everyone in the neighborhood, assuming they also use their own land for vegetable gardening.
I think being on your own out in the woods is an invitation to be taken over by any band of armed hooligans. But it’s nice to have 30 acres of hardwoods to access for fuel (assuming someone doesn’t cut my trees down for me).
Davy on Tue, 12th May 2015 7:39 am
Great Law, you got the idea not that I am talking to you as the expert just that I am thinking the same way. Now all we need is some of that “luck of the draw” and be spared a devastating act of God.
Aire on Tue, 12th May 2015 10:49 am
Oh, that was a good way to put it, Davy. After ‘re-evaluating, I seem to have made some absolutes. Usually things are not absolute but in the case of the human species in this century.. I’d say the day is upon us. Yes, it’s true what you said about a collapse shifting modern society into a more local and self-reliant paradigm but what you say after is what is different. The dangers of not keeping BAU running will most likely prove fatal since we won’t be able to maintain dangerous weapons and waste.. especially nuclear. The combination as you say will all be a factor also. The larger locals picking and preying on the weaker. Etc. Etc..
I realize some people like to prep such as you Davy and myself but to be believing such as Paulo1 that some will be alright and others are not seems foolish this time in human history. Sure, in the past, not everyone was affected but we will need some of the serious luck Mr. Paulo mentioned for humans to claw their way out of this shitfest.
Another thing Paulo1 said was that “the majority of the people are parasitic.” I wonder what that means exactly since all living things take from mother earth. Does it just mean that, since we are on an overshoot of population, that the remaining amount are automatically considered parasites…
Davy on Tue, 12th May 2015 11:15 am
Air, I am already a doomer extremist so I try to have some optimism within that extremism. This is why I try to mention marginally positive outcomes at some levels. If we have no hope our motivation levels nose dive.
Your mention of the end of BAU as catastrophic is reality. When one realizes how bad things will go dysfunctional then add all the many and varied dangers to that I wonder how anything will survive. It is my hope this might shake out over time with some moderation but that might be wishful thinking.
The other issue is time frame. If I am crowing about a collapse 10 years from now how many people can really relate? Our time value of life kicks in. We really only care about the next 6 months. We get bombarded by so much bad news we just shut it out and feast on BAUtopian hopium as a sedative. You are correct Air the potential for an apocalyptic end of BAU is highly likely.
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