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Page added on January 2, 2013
Record Drop in Japan’s Population
Japan’s population has logged a record drop, shrinking in 2012 for the sixth year in a row, statistics show.
Estimates from Japan’s Health and Welfare Ministry show the total population declined by 210,000 in 2012 — the largest annual decline since records became available — to 128 million people, the CBC’s Craig Dale reported from Tokyo.
Just 1.03 million people were born in Japan last year — the lowest number since the end of the Second World War. Meanwhile, more than 1.24 million people died in 2012, the second-highest number in the post-war era, Dale reported.
As well, about 8,000 more people died in 2011 when the earthquake and tsunami hit northeastern Japan.
Government estimates suggest Japan’s population will shrink by 30 per cent by 2060, because of a low birthrate and a high proportion of elderly people, to just 86.74 million.
The birthrate has fallen dramatically over the years. In 1950, the average Japanese woman had more than four children during her lifetime. By 2012, that figure stood at 1.39 (the same as in 2011).
Seniors to reach 40% of population by 2060
By 2060, the number of people 65 or older will nearly double to 40 per cent, while the national workforce of people between ages 15 and 65 will shrink to about half of the total population, according to a January 2012 estimate, made by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.
It’s a demographic shift that Japan’s Emperor Akihito has said is a source of worry.
“One of the social issues of concern is the rapidly aging population,” he said in a statement on his 79th birthday last month. “I believe that the problem is particularly serious in rural areas far away from the cities.”
It’s also a demographic shift faced by many countries, including Canada.
‘One of the social issues of concern is the rapidly aging population.’—Japan’s Emperor Akihito said in December
Data from the 2011 census shows the number of people over 65 has surged to nearly five million over the previous five years, a rise of 14.1 per cent. The median age in Canada is now 40.6, the oldest ever, compared to 39.5 five years ago and 33.5 two decades ago. Seniors make up 14.8 per cent of the population, a record high.
Young people, however, are growing marginally. The segment of Canada’s population under15 has grown just 0.5 per cent over the past five years, representing 16.7 per cent of the population.
17 Comments on "Record Drop in Japan’s Population"
ken nohe on Thu, 3rd Jan 2013 12:23 am
The Japanese population drop is far worse than reported in this article. In Tokyo it is invisible due to migration from outside prefecture but the countryside is being decimated with some areas where the average age is well over 80, close to being completely depopulated.
The reasons are many and complex but in the short term, there is no solution and the way things are going there might not be any in the long term too. Outside migration on the scale needed, millions, is unthinkable, rebound is impossible in grandmothers filled villages, reinvestment is hard to contemplate with the country over-extended as it is.
Luckily, decline has it’s “sweet” sides, less competition for dwindling jobs, more assets per person for fewer inheritors, permanent deflation of real assets as demand crashes. It is in fact quite likely that Japan will welcome decline as the population over the years realize that it can be accommodated with.
Rick on Thu, 3rd Jan 2013 12:27 am
Less is always more.
Pacman on Thu, 3rd Jan 2013 1:15 am
On some level this is a win for Malthus
BillT on Thu, 3rd Jan 2013 1:47 am
I suspect that the events at Fukushima will hurry along the decline in the next decade or so.
SilentRunning on Thu, 3rd Jan 2013 4:02 am
The rest of the world needs to follow Japan’s example. When the global population is reduced to a billion people or so, then the reductions can easily be stabilized by increasing births to match deaths.
Dmyers on Thu, 3rd Jan 2013 4:30 am
Population contraction, at this point in time, may be the best, if not only, proof that humans possess rationality.
BillT on Thu, 3rd Jan 2013 9:36 am
DMeyers, you would be correct, if it was really our choice and not just the fact that there is not enough earth for all of us.
Newfie on Thu, 3rd Jan 2013 10:06 am
Japans population will decline to “just 86.74 million”. Probably still way too many to support on the agrarian economy that will replace the cheap oil economy later on this century. This will be the century of Malthus.
Arthur on Thu, 3rd Jan 2013 10:39 am
It looks like Kunstler could be right with his prediction that Japan could be the first to abandon modernity and go back to traditionalism. 200% GDP debt, fenominal aging, Fukushima, will make it unlikely that Japan will be at the forefront of international competition. In a not too distant past Russia and China joined the WTO. Wonder who will be the first to leave and resort to protectionism.
Arthur on Thu, 3rd Jan 2013 10:46 am
“Population contraction, at this point in time, may be the best, if not only, proof that humans possess rationality.”
From what I see from the youngsters around me, both boys and girls, is that everybody is postponing parenthood. Too busy with careers and using the revenues to travel around the world. There is zero awareness concerning resource depletion or the future of the planet. Having children seems to be a hobby of the poor, with nothing else to do.
Kenz300 on Thu, 3rd Jan 2013 4:19 pm
Every country needs to develop a plan to balance its population with its resources, food, water, energy and jobs. Japan seems to be more in balance than most countries. A declining population will help to stretch their limited resources.
It always amazes me that the poorest people in the world are the ones having the most children trapping them into a cycle of poverty, hunger and despair.
Countries that do not develop a plan will be exporting their people and their problems.
Hiro Agazuki on Thu, 3rd Jan 2013 5:12 pm
Thanks to birth control and the modern education of women, most of the modern world’s populations are shrinking. The exception is the world’s primitive and tribal people, such as Africans and many Muslim clan based nations. The tribes and clans are growing by leaps and bounds.
BTW, the anti-Japanese racism at this and other similar websites is palpable and repugnant.
true on Thu, 3rd Jan 2013 8:26 pm
Seems like Japan is ready to be colonized by multiculturalism and third world peoples 🙂
Arthur on Fri, 4th Jan 2013 1:36 pm
“BTW, the anti-Japanese racism at this and other similar websites is palpable and repugnant.”
I checked this article as well as the comments but I cannot discern anything anti-Japanese whatsoever. ‘Racism’ can be found where two or more distinct groups are placed on the same territory, forced to compete with each other, like whites, blacks, jews and Mexicans in the US or whites/muslims in Europe. But that is not the case with Japanese, as there are not many Japanese in the West.
My friendly advice: keep foreigners out and watch the unfolding desaster in the West New Orleans/Yugoslavia/Syria-style from a safe distance. The West is almost dead, thank God, and a major geopolitical realignment is in the making.
wati on Fri, 4th Jan 2013 3:57 pm
it’s good not to have too many people in a nation. the nation can concentrate more on improving the quality of life instead of just building new schools and houses. Less food consumption, less garbage produced etc
Arthur on Fri, 4th Jan 2013 4:13 pm
Welcome to the forum Hiro Agazuki, as this is your first post here.
I did notice though that ‘Agazuki’ is a non-existing Japanese name. Combined with the ridiculous racism accusation it is not difficult to come up with alternative hypothesis as from what corner that post was coming from.
Daniel on Sun, 6th Jan 2013 9:27 am
Japan is a bellweather for the West.