Platts China demand figures: “only” up 8.3%

China’s apparent oil demand* in April reached 38.36 million metric ton (mt) or an average of 9.37 million barrels per day (b/d), marking an 8.3% increase from April 2010 due to increased demand during the spring sowing season, according to a Platts analysis based on recent figures published by the Chinese government.

Apparent oil demand by the world’s second largest oil consumer in April was the third highest monthly demand rate since Platts began tracking the data in 2005, behind 9.62 million b/d in December 2010 and 9.58 million b/d in February 2011.

“Beijing has in recent weeks directed state oil majors to ensure adequate domestic supply of products by cutting back on exports and running refineries flat out to meet increased demand from the transportation sector and agriculture sector, with the onset of the spring planting season,” said Calvin Lee, Platts senior writer, China.

In a statement issued earlier this month, the top economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), said Chinese oil majors would temporarily suspend diesel exports, except to Hong Kong and Macau, in a bid to boost domestic supplies.

In addition, the three state oil companies – China National Petroleum Corp., China Petrochemical Corp. and China National Offshore Oil Corp. – were to maintain crude supplies to private refiners and also continue to purchase refined products to increase domestic supply.

State-owned refiners were also urged to keep operating at full capacity, make “reasonable arrangements” for maintenance, and optimize production schedules to increase supply of oil products, the NDRC said.

In April, with plants operating at or near full capacity, Chinese refiners processed a total of 37.19 million mt, or an average of 9.09 million b/d, of crude oil. This is up 8.1% from the same time a year ago.

Chinese enterprises, however, reduced their purchase of refined products last month from the international market, with imports falling 5.6% year on year to 3.22 million mt in April or the lowest in six months.

While China has raised retail prices for refined oil products twice this year, it has not kept pace with the rapid rise in international crude prices, causing companies to cut back on oil product imports.

To make up for the barrels needed in the local market, Chinese companies reduced oil product exports by 20.2% year on year to 2.05 million mt in April.

Still, the 8.3% increase in demand in April showed that overall oil demand growth has moderated from the blistering pace set in the first quarter of well over 10% growth each month.

“Some analysts are forecasting that Chinese oil demand growth will moderate for the rest of the year because of a decelerating economy and high oil prices further denting end-user demand,” Lee said.

MONTHLY TRADE DATA IN MILLION METRIC TONS:

	Apr ’11	Apr ’10	% Chg	Mar ’11	Feb ’11	Jan ’11	Dec ’10
Net crude imports	21.25	20.98	+1.29	21.33	19.87	21.52	20.62
Crude production	16.96	16.26	+4.31	17.58	15.90	17.81	17.52
Apparent demand*	38.36	35.42	+8.30	38.96	36.65	38.90	40.73

*Platts calculates China’s apparent or implied oil demand on the basis of crude throughput volumes at the domestic refineries and net oil product imports, as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics and Chinese customs.

The government releases data on imports, exports, domestic crude production and refinery throughput data, but does not give official data on the country’s actual oil consumption figure and oil stockpiles. Official statistics on oil storage are released intermittently.

Platts releases its monthly calculation of China’s apparent demand between the 18th and 26th of every month via press release and via its website. Any use of this information must be appropriately attributed to Platts.

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