Peak Oil is You
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Page added on June 8, 2014
Peakoil and pushing on a string
Imagine the economy as a wagon with one string attached to the front and one at the back. When energy is cheap, the wagon is pulled forward by the front string. The string a the rear represents monetary policy. Pulling on the rear string prevents the economy from going too fast.
Cheap energy is over. There is nothing pulling the wagon. Now the 1% is trying to move the wagon by pushing on the string at the back.
It is clear that a new system is needed. We, the 99%, must make it happen. There are things we can do now, under the current system, that will smooth the transition. First, let’s stop wasting energy. Autosprawl, the system of cars, highways, and suburbs, is a waste of energy. It seems all-powerful, but in fact it is very weak and getting weaker. If we make buses free in the city, we can break its back.
8 Comments on "Peakoil and pushing on a string"
penury on Sun, 8th Jun 2014 9:27 am
There is no such thing as free bus service in the city or out. No fare ridership may be an advantage for low income people, and worth exploring but, where does government get its money? Unless you have a printing press (U.S.) fees and taxes are the answer. And all the residents of the city would be impacted. So no thanks.
bob on Sun, 8th Jun 2014 10:02 am
Making something “free” makes people abuse and not respect it….Just look at gas prices in the U.S it has made us not respect oil…
Perk Earl on Sun, 8th Jun 2014 10:41 am
“It is clear that a new system is needed.”
Sure, I’ll have two eggs, a slice of bacon and a new system to replace the old one that serves the 99% with free bus service. Yeah, that really ought to do it.
The first paragraph had me. I thought this sounds about right. Then later it falls apart. This seems to be a lot of what is happening now – the realization of the energy predicament followed by desperate, false ideas. I mean think about it – how do we go from cheap energy that generated an extremely complex, enormous civilization with seven billion people to too expensive energy and make it work? It’s bound to seize up.
I think this is how it will go down:
Already happened or now occurring;
1. Every desperate fiscal policy to extend BAU is employed.
2. Velocity of money continues to descend due to high transport energy price.
3. Price of oil stagnates at ceiling of affordability, supported by fiscal policies in #1.
_____________________________
Future:
4. Oil supply drops, increasing oil price above affordability for large part of population.
5. Demand lowers with velocity of money dropping to a critical level, but oil price is slow to respond.
6. Defaults increase exponentially.
7. Economy is recessionary to the point of beginning to seize up.
8. Those that can afford to begin hoarding food and other supplies.
9. Those that cannot afford to hoard (watching those that can), panic.
10. National defense is deployed into the streets to protect food deliveries/sales and govt. ration handout lines.
11. Economy stagnates into obsolescence.
12. Chaos – bottleneck.
13. Localization for survivors.
rockman on Sun, 8th Jun 2014 11:16 am
“If we make buses free in the city, we can break its back.” So simplistically foolish IMHO. In Houston, one of the largest metro areas in the county, free bus fares would have virtually no impact on gasoline consumption. Everyone that can ride public transport, including the suburban work commuters, do so now. My bus pass to get downtown was 1/3 of hat just parking cost let alone the cost of owning and operating a vehicle. We isn’t need free bus passes: the system was maxed out years ago. Unless a great many $BILLIONS are spent in Houston alone free fees won’t mean anything. The operation cost that would be subsidized by the tax payers would be insignificant compared to the cost of expanding the infrastructure.
Plantagenet on Sun, 8th Jun 2014 4:32 pm
The US and state governments give thousands of dollars in rebates and tax incentives to rich people who buy $100,000 electric cars and nobody complains about that, but let somebody propose a mass transit subsidy that would save some working class person 50 cents on a his bus ticket to work, and people rush to denounce it.
MKohnen on Sun, 8th Jun 2014 5:41 pm
A thoroughly integrated mass transit system is what is needed. Door-to-door. Heck, so much time is spent telling us how technology will save us from peak oil, pandemics, peak food, etc. How about a much simpler problem: transportation.
I know, I can hear it already. Where’s the money going to come from? My answer: make it up! If that made up money creates jobs, industry, etc., it would be much more economy enhancing than making it up and handing it to banks! Where will the resources come from? Recycling! There’s already much, much more than enough scrap out there to do the job. Add in copious amounts of human labour and ingenuity and you’re off to the races.
There, that should answer the not-often-enough asked question as to whether I’m delusional or not.
Makati1 on Sun, 8th Jun 2014 11:39 pm
Peak Earl, I think you have the right idea and timeline. It is only the speed of decline that is in question, not the possibility. I think we are in 4 and 5 now and about to move into 6, but it is just not obvious yet.
pat on Mon, 9th Jun 2014 5:38 am
the world is already seeing signs of 7 to 13 from earl indications, the PO crisis is only to accelerate further…