Peak Oil: The Realities of Progress

27 Comments on "Peak Oil: The Realities of Progress"

Makati1 on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 7:15 am 



Transition is a bad joke. It takes money and energy to transition to any other lifestyle than BAU in the ‘for profit’ world. What is the price of a few acres of productive land in the US today?

The last time I bought raw land was about 37 years ago and it was a wooded acre 4 miles outside a small town. It cost $4,600.00 then (~$31,500.00 in 2014 dollars). That was a years wages after taxes then and now. How can you ‘transition’ if the only land you own is a small suburban plot still owned by the bank?

Even here in the Ps, raw land in the middle of nowhere costs P10 to P100 per square meter. That is about $1,000 to $10,000 US per acre. The cheapest land is far off of the paved road and usually in huge blocks of hundreds or thousands of acres. The expensive land is along paved roads and in smaller blocks. We have about 12.5 acres a half mile off of the road that we are developing and that is challenging enough.

Calhoun on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 7:44 am 



Agreed, transition is worse than a bad joke, it’s a hoax. It’s instructive to realize that when Charles Ponzi concocted his pyramid scheme in 1920 he didn’t think it was a pyramid scheme, he actually believed it was a legitimate business model that could be continued indefinitely. Such is the nature of self-deception.

While not a Ponzi scheme, the idea of a manageable transition is equally unrealistic. There are just too many people and too little land — overshoot is in full bloom. Oh, there will be a transition, but not the one that people like Rob Hopkins are advocating. Economic collapse, social disintegration, mass migrations, die off — that is what transition will really look like.

And then there’s the role that climate change plays. What happens to California and other western states when they are hit with both oil shortage and long-term drought? Will there be a reverse mass-migration to eastern states? I don’t think it’s out of the question and the social impacts would be immense.

As I write this, I am in Phoenix, Arizona. And as I drive miles to get to any destination in heat that requires constant air conditioning I think to myself — what a wonderful world.

GregT on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 8:08 am 



Modern industrial society is a direct result of our exploitation of fossil fuels, as are population overshoot and environmental destruction. When fossil fuels are no longer an option, we will revert back to pre-industrial society. If we don’t completely destroy the planet, and most of the life on it, first.

Plantagenet on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 8:52 am 



We are going to transition from oil all right but it isn’t going to be voluntary.

J-Gav on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 9:06 am 



I’ll call transition “The effort to come out on the other side of whatever hardships the coming systemic crises throw at us – 1 – Alive and 2 – With some prospect for still having a decent, though materially much-reduced, existence.”

Anybody who believes that process with be smooth and carefully/responsibly/successfully managed by TPTB hasn’t been paying attention.

poaecdotcom on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 9:30 am 



I concur J-Gav.

Smooth Transition is an oxymoron BUT whatever can be done on the individual, family and small community scale to best prepare is NOT a joke, it is all we have and we’d better get on it.

Go Local.

bobinget on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 9:41 am 



Wednesday’s EIA report due 10:30 Eastern

(mildly bullish)

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending June 27, 2014
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged over 16.2 million barrels per day during the week ending June 27, 2014, 546,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 91.45% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging over 9.4 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 7.3 million barrels per day last week, down by 76,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged over 7.2 million barrels per day, 9.4% below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 512,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 79,000 barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.2 million barrels from the previous week. At 384.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.2 million barrels last week, and are in the middle of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels last week but are near the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.6 million barrels last week and are in the upper half of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 0.4 million barrels last week.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 18.7 million barrels per day, down by 1.2% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged about 9.0 million barrels per day, up by 0.5% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 8.0% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is up 6.3% compared to the same four-week period last year.

bobinget on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 9:52 am 



At first glance diesel down by 8% is alarming.
The fact is, many fields are too wet for farmers to enter
for timely planting. Now, any farmer will take a wet field over a dry any day. However, we are seeing unprecedented flooding and continued drought which augers poorly for food supplies, (higher prices) poor AG equipment sales, housing, even diesel and fertilizer
sales.

All things considered, as an economic indicator, this week’s (partial) report is not so bullish LT for our economy.

Look deeper into this at 1:00 PM
here: http://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/pdf/highlights.pdf

marmico on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 10:14 am 



Progress to Transition.

Rockman and Westexas voluntarily delay their scheduled 2017 colonoscopy which should bid-down about 20 bbls (500 gallons) of oil (gasoline). LOL

Personal consumption expenditures: gasoline and other energy goods.

Aspera on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 11:07 am 



The world faces not a preordained future, but a choice. The choice is between different mental models, which lead logically to different scenarios.

1. One mental model says that this world for all practical purposes has no limits. Choosing that mental model will encourage extractive business as usual and take the human economy even further beyond the limits. The result will be collapse.

2. Another mental model says that the limits are real and close, and that there is not enough time, and that people cannot be moderate or responsible or compassionate. At least not in time. That model is self-fulfilling. If the world’s people choose to believe it, they will be proven right. The result will be collapse.

3. A third mental model says that the limits are real and close and in some cases below our current levels of throughput. But there is just enough time, with no time to waste. There is just enough energy, enough material, enough money, enough environmental resilience, and enough human virtue to bring about a planned reduction in the ecological footprint of humankind: a sustainability revolution to a much better world for the vast majority.

That third scenario might very well be wrong. But the evidence we have seen, from world data to global computer models, suggests that it could conceivably be made right. There is no way of knowing for sure, other than to try it.

Meadows, Randers & Meadows (2004)

MSN Fanboy on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 11:59 am 



Aspera:

3. A third mental model says that the limits are real and close and in some cases below our current levels of throughput. But there is just enough time, with no time to waste. There is just enough energy, enough material, enough money, enough environmental resilience, and enough human virtue to bring about a planned reduction in the ecological footprint of humankind: a sustainability revolution to a much better world for the vast majority.

Lol 😀 I like rose tinted glasses

J-Gav on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 12:01 pm 



Aspera (Per aspera ad astra?),

I’m sympathetic with the way you lay things out, being a kind of point 1, point 2, point 3 sort of person myself.

The problem with your (and often no doubt my own) way of presenting scenarios is that they are inevitably going to be over-simplifications.

I think we can safely eliminate scenario n°1, wouldn’t you agree?

From your scenario n°2, on the other hand, ie “the limits are real and close,” it does not necessarily follow for those who hold that opinion that “people cannot be moderate, responsible or compassionate.” There is a whole spectrum of takes on this scenario and not all of them lead to any self-fulfilling prophesy.

To wit – people who see some form of collapse coming do not all call it the end of the world. Nor do they all believe there is nothing to be done in the way of preparation or mitigation.

Regarding scenario n°3, the “sustainability revolution,” I’ve never been a professional statistician but I do tend to look at many evolving situations in probabilistic terms. From that standpoint, “it could conceivably be made right” is true.

But, based on past performance of both public awareness and reactivity, as well as the elites’ ability to cling to their advantages via propaganda and brute force,I would sadly put the chances of “environmental resilience” becoming THE priority at hmmm, let’s say less than 50%.

Arundhati Roy has written: “A new world is possible. On a quiet day I can hear her breathing.” Inspiring words. There’s still that lingering question though: How many quiet days can we realistically expect in the coming years?

Juan Pueblo on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 12:12 pm 



I don’t think there is a real choice at the species level as the writer implies in his conclusion. We will keep doing what all living organisms do, growing until we reach limits, and by then the damage will be unimaginable and it will be too late.
As aware individuals it is our duty to prepare for whatever’s coming as best we can to help the rest through the tough times ahead.

Juan Pueblo on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 12:14 pm 



JGav, those are Meadows points if I am not wrong. Aspera is quoting meadows.

J-Gav on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 12:26 pm 



Juan – Got it. But if Aspera is quoting them it likely means he or she adheres to them.

Aspera on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 3:36 pm 



Juan: Yes, text is a quote from Meadows, Randers and Meadows.

J-Gav: A typo; meant to be Aspara (“seagull” in the fictitious language of Islandia).

I think Meadows et al. didn’t mean them as scenarios to be accepted or rejected. (Otherwise, I agree with your take on them). But instead as how our mindset affects what we do. Not unlike epigenetics. The mind evolved to need a mindset/worldview, the one we use affects how we behave (e.g., sort of like which genes get expressed and when in epigenetics).

When Juan says, “As aware individuals…” I think he’s following what Meadows et al. suggest (i.e., “As individuals running a particular mental model, we will/should…”).

I agree that we don’t have a choice BUT to run a mental model (that’s the genetics at the species level). But WHICH model we run? Well that can change (follows much like the change epigenetics is causing in genetic determinism).

So, I’d probably merge models No. 2 and 3. Something like the following from their No. 2:

A. Biophysical limits are real close (or here or recently past).

B. Our fossil-fueled, consumer-focused, industrial society cannot be made sustainable.

C. Climate disruption is occurring and will only intensify, the rate of energy and material production soon will peak and then decline, and technological innovation may help ease a societal transition but will not fundamentally change it.

And then something from No. 3:

(a) A response is possible that makes things better than they would otherwise be.

(b) While the biophysical reality is inevitable, what is not inevitable is how we respond to the realization.

(c) The mental model we hold will affect individual and collective behavior.

A useful response might not be possible any longer. But to dismiss the attempt
makes complete collapse self-fulfilling.

—–

Many of us here are evidence that different mental models can produce different outcomes. And, I think we’re all human. And to quote Boulding, “If it exists, then it is possible.”)

Now off to ferment some early cherry tomatoes.

MSN Fanboy on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 3:57 pm 



Considering you slate a “Cornacopian pathology” as optimistic hopium based on fundamentally nothing you’re all rather happy to hope for option three.

I can understand hope for the best plan for the worst etc…

But guys… were past the PSR, the iceberg hit the titanic five min ago.

Just look not at oil, not even eroei, but wealth inequality, the impoverishment of the middle class, education to nowhere.

Once the Capex goes and the debt bomb explodes we wont be able to afford 20 dollar barrels nevermind 200.

the best thing we do now is insulate ourselves. being all “open” and “neighbourly” will work, untill you run out of food or meet a psychopath.

Just Save yourselves, get on that lifeboat, kick the women and children off and survive…

Northwest Resident on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 4:21 pm 



Aspera — It is interesting to learn that you are fermenting your tomatoes for (I assume) long term storage. Is this the first time you’ve done that, or have you done it before with good results? I bought a well-recommended book on fermenting foods for long term preservation. I haven’t tried it yet. It seems kind of “weird”, but I guess those “good” bacteria and other microorganisms really can preserve food. How do the fermented tomatoes taste???

Aspera on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 4:46 pm 



Done the fermenting for a few years now. Tried it “native” but now use Caldwell’s culture starter at beginning of each season (then just keep using the some of the juice to inoculate the next batch).

We have a few small-scale commercial fermenters in our county doing all sorts of produce. The one I know has offered to share his culture but says that it’s not a big deal, that we should just keep using our own.

With a good culture it takes ~4-5 days for our taste. Needs to be fully anaerobic; we use a few different types of airlocks. If you’ve ever brewed beer then you have the equipment.

BUT — final product needs refrigeration (or a year-round VERY cool and VERY stable root cellar which we don’t have… yet). Last year we tried canning the fermented stuff. Kills the probiotics, of course, and wasn’t tastier than just canning the produce straight up. Not mushier though, if you use something to help out (we use Horseradish plant leaves, almost a weed in our garden).

We serve the fermented cherry tomatoes in an herb-infused olive oil, served with homemade rye crackers.

Get our whole grain, probiotics and anti-inflammatory oil in one dish AND gets rid of a lot of cherry tomatoes (they seem to ripen all at once where we are).

Northwest Resident on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 4:54 pm 



Aspera — Thanks for the info. As I read that fermentation book, I got a bad feeling that if I didn’t do it just right then I might end up with a bad stomach ache at minimum, or ten feet under doing my own “fermentation” thing at worst.

My next project is to build a root cellar — got a book on that too! It will be mostly for the loads of potatoes that we’re growing, along with carrots and who knows what else.

One of these days, when the world as we know it has come to a complete stop, and after I’ve fought off the zombie hoards and settled down into my full time mini-farmer routine, I’m going to have time to read that fermentation book cover to cover and try some “lab experiments”. But mostly I’m going to be depending on corn, wheat, beans, potatoes and eggs — all of which can be stored long term without the fermentation. I hear kimchi is really good though, so I might have to give it a try some time!

Aspera on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 5:04 pm 



NWR: It’s pretty easy to tell when an anaerobic ferment has gone bad. And we’re all pre-familiarized having had un-pasteurized yogurt, kraut, pickles, etc. and beer, wine, etc.

HELP NEEDED: Build a cold room in our concrete basement. Needed to use some 12 volt fans to move enough air in and out through a few pipes in the wall (“gravity” ventilation not enough given size of the pipes we could fit).

I’d like to set up a solar powered, battery storage system to run the fans. I have, now ancient, electrical skills. Would love to get some book, workbook, etc. to teach myself about PV solar/battery. Nothing fancy. Very small-scale stuff for now. (e.g., 12volt fans, string of LED lights).

Do you folks have suggestions for (a) books and (b) websites?

shortonoil on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 5:39 pm 



During my short life (short because human life is short, not because I am young) I have seen:

1) The Grand Banks destroyed (7% of the world’s protein)

2) 40% of the Amazon Rain forest cut down

3)The Great Plains turned into a food growing sponge that has petrochemicals poured on it to make things grow.

5)The mountain tops of West Virginia literally mowed off

6)The South Pacific from southern Asia to Australia become a dead zone

7)The yield from copper ores plunge by over 100 times

8)The energy from a barrel of petroleum fall by over 300%

9)The population has has almost tripled

Is there time to avoid disaster? Which disaster: “The Road”, or the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and its 1000 years of Dark Ages.

Maybe I’ll get lucky, and miss it?

J-Gav on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 5:41 pm 



Aspara – Hardly know where to start. A lot to comment on there. So I’ll begin in the middle – “a merger of n°2 and n° 3.” That sounds reasonable to me.

And yes, mindsets do affect how things play out even if, in our present ‘system,’ they are so easily manipulated, both individually and collectively.

Somehow, I don’t think you meant to write this: “A useful response might not be possible any longer,” after having written this: “(a) A response is possible that would make things better than they would otherwise be.”

My feeling is that you would agree that ANY response based on awareness of our predicament is better than none (fermenting cherry tomatoes for example). So a ‘useful response’ is always possible at the individual or collective level, for however long its effects last … and then we might have to start all over again …

Well, I won’t go into the epigenetics despite the temptation (I did a 40-page translation on the subject as regards macaque behavior some years ago, published in the Cambridge Royal Society Papers of bla-bla-bla). Fascinating but off-topic here.

By the way, even many non-human critters are kinda-sorta ‘human’ in more ways than we generally imagine if you see what I mean, and I think you do, judging from your general attitude. I’ve just seen footage from last week of an Ethiopian feeding wild hyenas meat at the end of an 8-inch stick held in his mouth. He whistles to call them into town – they keep the wild dog population down and clean up a good part of the garbage in the streets. Violent incidents are extremely rare but, sorry again, off topic. But maybe not entirely since, if we are unable to find our place in nature, she will reject us as foreign bodies – and that does have something to do with “The Realities of Progress” in the title above.

Aspera on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 6:23 pm 



J-Gav:

Yes, I meant something more like, “A solution might not be possible any longer.” Building off of Greer’s notion on problem vs predicament and solution vs response.

Having our mindsets manipulated is an age-old threat. Probably something that TPTB became good at during the peak of any given civilization.

Probably many here would agree that it’s always hard to maintaining clear-headedness and mental vitality. And that it will only get harder under energy descent.

That’s why we practice MBSR and meditation. The clear-headedness they bring makes it a bit easier to see the attempts to manipulate and resist them.

Certainly easier to do that when you’re not in debt, living below your means, proficient at provisioning.

Juan Pueblo on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 6:50 pm 



Aspera, when I did my sailboat’s PV electric system I borrowed from the library “Boatowner’s Mechanical and Electrical Manual” by Nigel Calder and kept it for six months for free. I highly recommend it if all you need is a basic system with some batteries, a controller, PV, lights, fans, other 12V things, and a small 110V inverter.

Davy on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 7:57 pm 



Thanks Juan, going to buy the book

Northwest Resident on Wed, 2nd Jul 2014 8:43 pm 



That’s a grim list, shortonoil. And it isn’t even close to a complete list of the “big bulletpoints” humanity has racked up. When we turn around and look at the smoking pit of debris and toxic waste that we’ve left behind in our quest to live the good life and conquer mother nature, I wonder how many of us will ponder the incredible opportunities we squandered. I wonder how many similar civilizations to our’s might exist in the universe, and if any of them might have realized at an earlier point in their development that their one-time fossil fuel gift and the bounty of their planet must be used wisely, judiciously and for the benefit of all. It could be that in the collection of planets that host intelligent life in this universe, humans have proven themselves to be among the biggest losers that ever existed. We have accomplished so many good things, but laid waste to the planet and our own nest in doing so, leaving a very bleak future for our descendants. And I’m an optimist.