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Page added on March 20, 2016
Peak Oil Returns: Why Demand Will Likely Peak By 2030
Think Progress has a post on the “peak oil demand” theory that seems to have come into vogue to replace traditional peak oil theory based on supply depletion – Peak Oil Returns: Why Demand Will Likely Peak By 2030.
Is it possible that the world is actually going to follow the path of the “Transport Transformation Scenario” and peak in oil demand by 2030 or so? At this point I think is not only possible, but likely.It is increasingly clear that technology will be here to make that possible — indeed, the technology is almost here now (see this recent post, “Tesla And GM Announce Affordable, Long-Range Electric Cars”). Same with the renewables needed to power electric cars carbon-free (see “Why The Renewables Revolution Is Now Unstoppable“).
The core issue now is whether the nations of the world will embrace the policies needed to accelerate those technologies into the marketplace fast enough to cause demand to actually peak in one to two decades globally — much as oil demand in the industrialized countries appears to have peaked a decade ago.
16 Comments on "Peak Oil Returns: Why Demand Will Likely Peak By 2030"
Pennsyguy on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 6:52 pm
Long-range electric cars charged by power from renewables–I can’t wait. I want my sex ‘bot too.
makati1 on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 6:55 pm
That headline is a joke, right? I think demand has already peaked and we are on the bumpy slide down the other side. More propaganda from Big Petro. The feeling I get from all of the oily articles and economic bullshit tells me that my observation is correct. If China stopped stockpiling oil, the numbers would be in steep decline. Now I await the career oilers here to tell how wrong I am…
twocats on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 6:59 pm
The world needs to switch to EV ASAP – or Canada will go broke –
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/02/29/Wacky-Accounting-Shale-Gas/
well, they might go broke anyway,
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2016/03/16/Whoopers-BC-LNG/
GregT on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 7:41 pm
“The world needs to switch to EV ASAP – or Canada will go broke”
If Canada were a household, she would already be broke, but nowhere near as broke as her next door neighbour to the south. Not even close.
dooma on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 10:47 pm
MY EV is also going to be able to fly as well as have a solar-powered engine with panels on the roof!!
makati1 on Sun, 20th Mar 2016 11:46 pm
Smokin’ some good stuff, dooma? LMAO
rockman on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 6:13 am
The PO date obsessed have only themselves to blame for leaving the opening for folks to write such pieces. As long as the PO daters and non-PO daters try to wrap the entire dynamics around some circle on a calendar the conversation will never evolve to where it needed to be decades ago.
rockman on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 6:14 am
And mak: your little tag reminds me of my favorite philosophy: To be…not to seem to be.
shortonoil on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 8:14 am
There is a little thing called price; as the price goes up, demand goes down (all other things considered the same). That happens because people run out of money! Its called affordability. This is what the affordability curve for petroleum looks like:
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm
Demand will go down because people have run out of money. It really, really has absolutely nothing to do with EVs. If they can’t afford oil, they sure can’t afford EVs. The oil age is ending because the world is running out of money to buy it with. It looks like most of it already has?
ennui2 on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 8:54 am
“The oil age is ending because the world is running out of money to buy it with. It looks like most of it already has?”
Wrong. Because we’re in a glut and oil is cheap.
joe on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 9:20 am
Rockman, blame Marion Hubbert and the good guys at Big Oil. They put a date on it and they keep putting dates on it, coming out as ‘insiders’, who have a message, they actually stop debate about oil dead, because when you have peak oil as a fight between believers and deniers, you dont talk about alternatives or benefits of not driving half a mile to the store to literally fill your car with crap your neighbour has but your too scared to borrow because the media told you not to trust him and that you should have a better one than him anyway.
shortonoil on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 11:54 am
“Wrong. Because we’re in a glut and oil is cheap.”
Look in your crystal ball and tell us “O Swami”, why is there a “glut”? Over the last ten years production growth has been the slowest it has been in over half a century; but inventories keep going up? The ten year average increase between 2005 and 2014 was 0.32%, in reference to the 2.52% yearly increase of the prior 55 years. One eighth of its historic level. Even though the production increase has been pathetic, at best, no one wants what little extra that is being produced. Does that fall inside of, or outside of the “glut” definition?
It looks like your crystal ball could use a little Windex. or your turbine has fallen down over your eyes! As soon as you get those fixed you can go back to ignoring reality. The oil age is now coming to a close, and niffty little catch phrases are not going to change that!
Boat on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 12:30 pm
short,
“Even though the production increase has been pathetic, at best, no one wants what little extra that is being produced. Does that fall inside of, or outside of the “glut” definition”?
Call the production growth pathetic (you) or growth normal (me) but yes that little extra produced that is called over supply has kept the storage tanks filling and the oil prices dropping. I still think your one dumb ass PHD.
BTW what is the 5, 10,15, 20 year average of growth you MSM wannabe cherry picking number fool.
Practicalmaina on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 2:47 pm
Pennysguy, just go to Japan, I am pretty sure they have you covered there.
Dooma, you know they already have a solar plane right?
Are you one of the 2 dudes who gets to fly it around the world? Lucky duck, I predicted these when I was like ten, my electrical engineer father said panels were too heavy and it would never work.http://www.solarimpulse.com/
shortonoil on Mon, 21st Mar 2016 2:53 pm
“BTW what is the 5, 10,15, 20 year average of growth you MSM wannabe cherry picking number fool.”
Growth of what? Crude, crude + camel pea, Kentucky Moonshine, or Palm Oil. If you don’t know enough to ask a definitive question you are probably not intelligent enough to understand the answer.
Since your statements are limited to prognostications developed from facts pulled out of your anus, and adhominem attacks on individuals your capacity to ask, or receive answers is most likely very constrained.
Mark Ziegler on Tue, 22nd Mar 2016 8:28 am
The conversation will change once the Ghawar field fails.
http://www.resilience.org/stories/2003-05-29/ghawar-dying