Peak car?

The Australian has an article on declining interest amongst Gen Y for getting a drivers licence – Driving me crazy: Getting a licence a low priority for Generation Y.

In 1991, of NSW kids aged 20-24, 79 per cent had licences. By 2001 it had risen to 80 per cent. Yet by 2008 it had crashed to just 51 per cent and continues to decline. A new study in Victoria by Monash University shows the number of licence holders under 30 is dropping at more than 1 per cent a year.Having a smartphone is more important to Gen Y than having a car in a world experienced increasingly online. They have less reason to leave their bedrooms than ever before. The once pervasive car culture of the US is also in decline. In 1978, nearly half of American 16-year-olds and three-quarters of 17-year-olds had driver’s licences, according to Department of Transportation data. In recent years, that has fallen to 31 per cent of 16-year-olds and 49 per cent of 17-year-olds, with the decline accelerating since 1998. …

This phenomenon fits neatly into the theory of “peak car”, which posits that vehicle kilometres per person travelled has peaked in at least eight major developed countries, including Australia.

In December 2008, researchers from the Brookings Institute observed that total vehicle miles travelled in the US began to plateau in 2004 and fell in 2007 for the first time since 1980. Per capita driving was following a similar pattern.

Studies show that teenagers are driving less, getting their licenses later, and waiting longer to purchase their first new car. NPR’s Sonari Glinton recently hit the streets to find out why, and discovered not having a car or not being able to afford one, has become a lot more common. The negative stigma around not having a car has also seems to have waned. …Micheline Maynard, a veteran journalist who’s covered automobiles and transportation issues, now oversees the website CurbingCars.com. She tells NPR’s Don Gonyea that one of the most cited reasons behind this trend of young people waiting to get a car or their driver’s license is simply not having the time. “Many states have now changed teen driving laws, so you have to spend a certain amount of time in the car with a parent,” Maynard says. “And people just shrug and say, ‘You know what, I don’t need to get a license right now.’ ”

Another reason often cited is money. Maynard says the average cost of a new car is about $30,000, before factoring in car insurance. Add in the high price of gas in some places and owning a car is simply too expensive for a young person.

There are also more transportation options available for those without a car, Maynard notes, from bikes, to ride shares, hourly car services and public transportation. “Public transit is seeing record demand at this point in time,” she says. “I think people are looking at transportation now as ‘I use my car when I need it, but if there are other cheaper, faster ways to get somewhere I’ll use that as well.’

peak energy

3 Comments on "Peak car?"

bobinget on Tue, 27th Aug 2013 11:16 pm

We have to stop being so US centric here.

Indian automakers ride on vehicle demand in Africa
Sunday Aug 11, 2013

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New Delhi, Aug 11 — Indian automakers are making deep inroads into the African markets where the demand for new vehicles is expanding fast. New, dynamic manufacturers have joined the historically engaged Tata Motors and Mahindra & Mahindra in this venture.
“India’s ascent has been most pronounced…growth in Indian vehicle exports to Africa has been weighty: since 2003 total Indian vehicle exports to Africa have swelled by over 1,000 percent (and by 160 percent since 2008)- by far the fastest rate for this product group amongst Africa’s traditional and BRICS trading partners,” says a report by South Africa’s Standard Bank.
The report, titled “The Africa Macro: India leads in unlocking new vehicle demand in Africa” released last week, says all the world’s major vehicle exporting economies, except China, have seen exports to Africa grow at a more profound rate than exports to the rest of the world.
Of particular interest, however, is the growth of Indian exports to Africa.
“Whereas in 2003, India was Africa’s 12th largest source of total vehicle imports, by 2012, it had shifted to sixth – ahead of both France, which was third in 2003, and the UK, ranked sixth in 2003,” says Bank analyst Simon Freemantle in the report co-authored with economist Jeremy Stevens.
For India, the softening of domestic demand has no doubt played a part to secure the African markets. After expanding in 2009-2011, India’s domestic vehicle market dipped 6.7 percent to 1.89 million units in 2012-2013.
But Freemantle says India’s strength in Africa has consistently been the ability of its home-grown multinationals to leverage domestic success and adapt to challenging emerging African economies.
Of India’s $3 billion income in vehicle exports to Africa last year, 46 percent consisted of passenger cars and 14 percent of motorcycles, which have become a key ingredient for both urban and rural transport across some of Africa’s fast growing but still lacking in physical infrastructure economies.
Last year, Nigeria imported the largest number of Indian motorcycles of any African country, accounting for 48 per cent of total Indian motorcycle exports to the continent. Angola was second, followed by Uganda.
Indian motorcycle exports have increased by 175 per cent to Africa since 2008. Bajaj Boxer is the largest-selling single motorcycle brand in Africa.
However, it is passenger cars driving India’s export growth. Since 2003, Indian car exports to Africa have grown by a staggering 2,400 per cent.

BillT on Wed, 28th Aug 2013 1:19 am

Peak car is totally Us centered. To most Western organizations, the rest of the world doesn’t exist, or is only used to point pout their ‘bad’ features.

Car use is going down for the fact that few young people can afford such a luxury. A $30,000 car requires an annual income of at least $60,000 to make it affordable. A car takes about 1/5 of the average persons income per year. If you are flipping burgers, it may take all of it. Any questions?

Philly example:
Used car payment: $250/mo.
Insurance: $150/mo.
Maintenance/license/inspections:$20+/mo.
Fuel: $50+/mo.
Totals: $470+ per month and up.

DC on Wed, 28th Aug 2013 6:59 am

More of this ‘peak car’ nonsense! Peak car may be real, but not the tortured logic used to try to rationalize it certainly is not. Young people prefer I-junks and cell phones to cars?

Please….

People like driving around aimlessly destroying the planet one pointless car trip at time as much today, as they did 10, 20, or 50 years ago. The only thing that has changed, like Bill says, is peoples ability to pay for a gas burning trash can. I-junks have NOTHING whatsoever to do with any decline in car trips.

Its the economy stupid. A lot of Gen-Xers, hell, a lot of folks of all ages and situations, are more or less stranded at home, unable to afford to drive around pointlessly, as least not to extent the auto-oil-sprawl cartel would have us. Its not by choice, thats for sure. Those that can afford to drive -are somewhat less careless about there trips. And its not because of the ‘high’ price of gas, but rather because of declining incomes. Endless driving is an artifact of cheap, endless oil.

But…

Oil is no longer cheap, and its sure is not endless either, despite the IEA and Exxons and others heroic efforts to convince people otherwise. Its should come as no surprise that once oil became much more expensive, and a flowing a lot less freely, something would have to give, namely, discretionary trips in the ol trash can. And the numbers seem to support that. If I-junks didnt exist for morons to keep attributing the decline in car-trips to, what would they blame it on instead?

Peak car?

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