OPEC sees oil drop as short-term, expects stronger demand

55 Comments on "OPEC sees oil drop as short-term, expects stronger demand"

joe on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 8:18 am 



How long before all those debt burdened tough-oilers go totally bust? Canada is squeeling in pain now, another year of this and its over.
The bank wont fund another oil-rush again, not until it can be sure OPEC is not a geo-political risk, which it is. I thought US finance guys were pro’s?

Davy on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 8:27 am 



I see demand destruction the key to the oil picture along with the normal depletion of less expensive high quality oil from conventional sources.

The Chinese market route is a game changer in my mind. This was the last bright spot for China. The economy has already been decelerating from export reductions, pollution issues, water problems, and debt. Chinese have a debt problem that is worse than any other major economy. The difference is it is internal and that give different dynamics. Regional governments in China in many locations are insolvent. The shadow banking system is imploding because of the popping equity bubble. Sentiment in China is going down and once this happens a drag will knock on to the economy as a whole. China is one huge mal-investment on multiple levels in an underlying condition of overconsumption with over population. Growth cannot continue in that situation.

I hear some say what goes in Saudi Arabia so goes it for the world in regards to oil. The same is true with China and global growth. China was the last growth juggernaut for the global system not only supporting the developed countries but also developing countries with commodities and investment. Once we see significant demand destruction oil will undergo supply destruction either actual or potential. It is a good possibility oil supply will remain adequate in a lower price range as the economy descends into a stagnation and contraction of the coming economic descent. This descent has the underlying limits to growth and declining marginal return on global macro investment.

Our modern global system is running out of steam and decline will take over. With decline comes random decay of abandonment, dysfunctional networks, lower confidence, and reduced liquidity. We are likely in the vicinity of a bumpy plateau and bumpy descent. This is important because likely both are in operation in different regions and economic areas. Eventually it will be all descent and that will be the end game for modern man along with all the other predicaments we are in socially and ecologically.

shortonoil on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 8:31 am 



Arab man speak with forked tongue

“Demand will be more than in the first half (of the year) although there is some uncertainty about the economy. The prices will remain around $60.”

$60 is not at all out of the question. Our model indicates that it could even go higher than that for the rest of 2015 and 2016:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

The point is that $60, or even a little higher, is not going to re-energize shale, bitumen, arctic, or ultra deep water. Prices are not going to go high enough to allow producers to replace reserves that are being extracted. That means that in a very few years the only place supplying oil in any quantity will be the Middle East. OPEC, if they haven’t torn themselves apart by then, will be back in the driver’s seat. We doubt if the guy in the turbine missed that!

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

joe on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 8:33 am 



Is it possible that the Chineese labour force can go from sweat-shop to iPhone and autos, back to sweat-shop within a generation?
Would China survive politically? Are we looking at that kind of situation? The IMF/World cannot bail out China.

BobInget on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 8:58 am 



July completions slowing noticeably.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/07/22/usa-northdakota-drilling-kemp-idUKL5N1022F420150722

Oil prices are lower today because Apple’s earnings caused “sell on news” by profit takers. Shear madness.

News that should effect oil pricing is either ignored or hidden ‘on page 12’.

Consumption numbers for the US are due in a half hour. I expect at minimum 19.9 M B p/d

I’ll post the report here.

shortonoil on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 9:11 am 



“The bank wont fund another oil-rush again, not until it can be sure OPEC is not a geo-political risk, which it is. I thought US finance guys were pro’s?”

The petroleum industry is in the energy business, not the barrel business. Until Finance comes to realize the difference they will make the same mistakes over and over again. Wall Street has been sold on the idea of RESERVES, RESERVES, RESERVES without ever asking what makes them worth anything. Without understanding the ramifications of energy production they are as likely to buy into a barrel of snake oil as a barrel of crude. They dumped over a $trillion into a product that was feedstock material without ever realizing that it had no place in the world of processed fuels. To them one liquid hydrocarbon looks just like every other liquid hydrocarbon. They believed that one was an equally good substitute for the the other. Like the old adage states, “there is no substitute for stupidity”.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

BobInget on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 9:19 am 



Gasoline demand highest since 2007.
https://rbnenergy.com/down-to-the-river-crude-by-barge-traffic-along-the-gulf-coast

Oil traders care lees about demand then inventory. (we can always import finished product, it is thought)

BobInget on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 9:32 am 



It’s official, 20 Million B P/d

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending July 17, 2015
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged about 16.9 million barrels per day during the
week ending July 17, 2015, 45,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s
average. Refineries operated at 95.5% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline
production increased last week, averaging over 10.1 million barrels per day. Distillate
fuel production decreased last week, averaging about 5.1 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 7.9 million barrels per day last week, up by 587,000
barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports
averaged over 7.5 million barrels per day, 2.5% above the same four-week period last
year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline
blending components) last week averaged 815,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports
averaged 193,000 barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum
Reserve) increased by 2.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 463.9 million
barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at
least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 1.7 million barrels
last week, but are in the upper half of the average range. Finished gasoline inventories
increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel
inventories increased by 0.2 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average
range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 0.3 million barrels last
week and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial
petroleum inventories increased by 2.9 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged about 20.0 million
barrels per day, up by 3.4% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks,
motor gasoline product supplied averaged over 9.6 million barrels per day, up by 6.9%
from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 3.8 million
barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 1.5% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied is down 2.6% compared to the same four-week period last year.

BobInget on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 9:42 am 



As expected, crude increased 2.5 million barrels,
in storage for the week.

Gasoline was said to be overstocked, is not.

Consumption, mu main concern is indeed higher then last week’s 19.9 Million barrels p/d.

Jet fuel is down again this week but only half of last weeks deficit.

Geopolitics;

Saudi Arabia remains mired in it’s own quicksand. A few more months of over-production will find the planet in dire shortages,
higher (economic killer) higher prices.

shortonoil on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 10:03 am 



“I see demand destruction the key to the oil picture”

As we have been stating there will not be much of a decline in demand until petroleum production begins to decline. The reason is that the extraction, processing, and distribution of oil is now consuming 76,500 BTU of the total 140,000 BTU in a gallon of it. More than half! When production begins to decline the demand for oil will go down with it. Price can not be supported with this low level of energy delivery to the rest of the economy. Production will begin to decline in the near future.

The present levitation magic show now being put on by the petroleum industry is undoubtedly the consequence of CB shenanigans. By maintaining their ZIRP policies they are allowing for the continuation of what would otherwise be non sustainable business models. Because this will eventually produce untenable imbalances in the capital markets (like the half $trillion outflow presently occurring from China) they will have to discontinue it in the near future. QE4 would be like pouring gasoline on the fire that is burning down your house!

What can’t go on, won’t, and petroleum production can not be maintained at its present level. The Laws of Physics tell us that you can’t get there from here. The only question is 2015, 2016, or 2017? That may depend on how fast the world realizes that it is going broke?

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

tita on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 10:48 am 



“It does seem that the Saudi tactic of beating the U.S. shale oil producers is not being successful,” said an official from an OPEC country outside the Gulf. “But they probably will maintain it.”

These kind of comments always make me laugh. KSA waited 20 years starting 1986 with this tactic to see oil prices rebound. It’s been only 8 months since they began to use it again now. They know it takes time. Probably not 20 years this time, but surely not only 8 months.

Davy on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 12:48 pm 



Yea, tell me about that stronger growth YEE HA!

Forget Recession: According To Caterpillar There Is A Full-Blown Global Depression

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-22/forget-recession-according-caterpillar-there-full-blown-global-depression

Boat on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 1:50 pm 



Davy,
http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WTTEXUS2&f=W

Is consumption going down? Crack spreads are at their highs, refineries are adding capacity. The US is now the worlds largest finished petroleum exporter. The huge profits like this from low oil prices will create expansion. They just love our diesel.

Davy on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 2:00 pm 



Poor Boat, he doesn’t know a leading indicator of recession if it spit in his eyes. He is a typical cornucopian cherry picking numbers to feel good. Boat I understand no one wants to feel down but sometimes that is reality.

Boat on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 2:54 pm 



Davy, World growth is alive Do you have the same projection as BC? Now to six months from now? When is it going to go into recession?

Davy on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 3:14 pm 



Boat we are in a recession we just act like we are not. It is called creative thinking with creative accounting. It is something cornucopians are addicted to. Doomers have chosen to face the cold icy wind of doom with honesty. Join us boat you will eliminate your cognitive dissonance and feel liberated.

clif14 on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 3:30 pm 



Davy,
+1

Northwest Resident on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 3:33 pm 



Boat,

You’re starting to sound a lot like one of Nony’s sock puppets. Not saying you are, just that you look like one, walk like one and quack like one.

But other than that, your points are all valid cornucopian themes of illusory wishful thinking and poor understanding of the real facts behind the MSM-inspired hopium that you portray on this forum.

Boat on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 4:08 pm 



The one thing Nony and I agreed on from years ago was the direction and extent of Nat Gas and fracking. I am not even necessarily a fan of fracking in it’s present form, I just don’t deny the benefits and massive growth either. And all this with rig counts considerably down. That isn’t corn just a 10 year run of fact. What is amazing to me how doomers just throw these facts out the window.

At one time in my career I was the team leader using Kaizen training. Our largest success was a project that eventually spent $60,000 and paid back within 3 years. We researched, experimented and researched again. Talked with many vendors. Came up with a Plan and an estimate. What I hated is they forced me to put on a tie and convince the suit and tie boys it was a worthwhile project. The project eventually saved millions of dollars.
I am not a good writer but I have decades of on hand experience. Trust me I am very skeptical of everything. I believe in numbers and multiple of sources over time and revisiting the same topics over and over to be convinced of anything. I am also willing to change my belief on any set of numbers. Change my mind.

Davy on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 4:51 pm 



NOo, whats ya say about these profound words?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-22/far-worse-1986-oil-downturn-has-no-parallel-recorded-history-morgan-stanley-says

“Far Worse Than 1986”: The Oil Downturn Has No Parallel In Recorded History, Morgan Stanley Says

In a ZIRP world, there’s plenty of demand for new HY issuance and ill-fated secondaries, which means the digging, drilling, and pumping gets to continue indefinitely in what may end up being one of the most dramatic instances of malinvestment the market has ever seen.

Northwest Resident on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 5:09 pm 



Yeah Davy. Not looking good for oil biz, and by extension, high tech industrial civilization. It is going to be a wild ride into the final quarter of 2015! I wonder what 2016 will be like.

Boat — If it was possible to change your mind, it would have already been changed. You’ve been fully exposed to all the data, all the points of view, all the facts and all the hype. If you’re still thinking that BAU is on solid ground with plenty of oil to take us well into the future, then hey, good luck and God bless.

shortonoil on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 5:38 pm 



Just as our Model projected:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-22/far-worse-1986-oil-downturn-has-no-parallel-recorded-history-morgan-stanley-says

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

Nony on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 5:39 pm 



Porsche Cayman, BMW Z4, or MB SLK 250?

I am leaning towards the latter. Least power, but drop dead sexy.

http://img1.findthebest.com/sites/default/files/4315/media/images/2014_Mercedes-Benz_SLK250_Roadster_3825228.jpg

Boat on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 5:48 pm 



Model S Ludicrous Mode 0-60 in 2.8 sec.

apneaman on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 6:01 pm 



I’m leaning towards laughing my ass off at the thought of all the assholes soon to be walking to the soup kitchen.

Nony on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 6:05 pm 



Hush…you are my double login. Stop talking to myself, you.

idontknowmyself on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 6:12 pm 



The fun is about to begin. What will be the reaction of government officials: panic and bailout of the bank owing the bad debt, nationalization of oil companies, bailout of the consumer, bailout of the hedge fun, amateurish panic like we see in China, where the government goes into the business of producing oil and declare martial law.

Canada is being completely destroy by low oil price.

apneaman on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 7:32 pm 



I have to admit that a big part of me is looking forward to the great humbling that a crash will bring. Fuck the middle class and their never ending consumer orgy. Canadians have morphed into Harpers delusional little obedient consumer zombies. idontknowmyself, I don’t know what part of the country you live in but here in fake green Vancouver, ever greater consuming is the #1 pastime. Let that bloated housing bubble pop and watch the panic ensue. I was in Georgia when the housing bubble popped in the US and it was not pretty. Canada is over due for a taste – bring it on.

Boat on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 8:27 pm 



Apneaman,
Name calling and hating a middle class of an entire country is down right weird. Don’t take a worlds problems so seriously. Our input to a web site will change very little.

Davy on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 8:47 pm 



Boat, Leave the Ape Man alone. He is brilliant when he is angry.

zoidberg on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 8:50 pm 



Delight in others suffering. Its pretty common albeit ugly.

apneaman on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 9:29 pm 



zoid that’s right, not being able to get a new i phone every year, new clothes every 3 months and drop $400.00 bucks to see a hockey game, while island people in the Pacific slowly watch their country get swallowed by the rising seas we created, is going to be a living hell on earth. Woe the privileged. Cry me a fucking river.

Makati1 on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 9:44 pm 



Joe, I wouldn’t worry about China if I were you. They don’t need the Western IMF or WB. They already have more resources then both put together. About $4 trillion more to spend before they are near broke. Even interest on that huge reserve is hundreds of billions per year to spend.

And Western ‘news’ about China is now spun negatively because they are on the US ‘shit list’ with Russia and North Korea, at the moment. If you look at the spin about the USA, that comes out of Washington, everything is just fine. Lies and more lies. Nothing is as it seems these days. Nothing.

As for China’s future: Keep in mind that they have been around for about 5,000 years. They have a culture Americans can only dream about. They can live on what most Westerners have for lunch. Besides, if China goes, so goes the rest of the world. They know that. Do you?

apneaman on Wed, 22nd Jul 2015 11:57 pm 



Capital exodus from China reaches $800bn as crisis deepens
China is reverting to credit stimulus after attempts to engineer a stock market boom failed horribly. The day of reckoning is delayed again

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11756858/Capital-exodus-from-China-reaches-800bn-as-crisis-deepens.html

Boat on Thu, 23rd Jul 2015 12:33 am 



In the US there trading firms that will charge you .80 that track bond funds with high liquidity. Thats expensive but provides a little more emotional relief if you need to dump fast.This is the smart investor I tried to explain to Davy. They know there junk bond funds and have a chance of default. That’s why they get a higher interest rate. But no. It’s not the investors fault, it’s the governments fault.

Every single investor whether government or citizen is responsible for their risks.

Northwest Resident on Thu, 23rd Jul 2015 1:48 am 



In other news:

Greece sees increase in sun worshipers seeking destitute country to bask in, expects more tips.

China sees significant decrease in short sellers and stock manipulators (as it rounds suspects up and prepares them for sham trials), expects total obedience from cowering population.

Catterpillar Inc sees near term future of billions of starved bodies to dispose of, expects upswing in bulldozer demand as remaining governments with money to spend dig mass graves.

Fracking companies see printing presses and pink unicorns floating among puffs of soft white clouds against a blue sky background, expect huge taxpayer funded government bailouts and billions of newly printed digital bucks to keep them limping along for a little longer.

Nony sees natural gas futures trending significantly upward as trillions in QE cash slosh from one side of the stock market to the other and as federal government agents work feverishly behind the scenes to keep the stock market pumped up and confidence in the utterly failing growth model high, expects several of his sock puppets to simultaneously make this point on peakoil dot com convincingly.

OPEC sees oil drop as short-term, expects stronger demand

apneaman on Thu, 23rd Jul 2015 2:24 am 



Check out this video of nony-marm, boat and the rest of the corny flock listening to a Danny Yergin speech.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QcE5aDTszrY

Davy on Thu, 23rd Jul 2015 6:52 am 



Mak said “And Western ‘news’ about China is now spun negatively because they are on the US ‘shit list’” Geeze Mak, are you having a desperate morning because of bad news in Asia? Are you trying to tell us what is happening in China is a propaganda ploy and not real? Players in the US markets are not keen on problems in China becoming too apparent. China problems will affect the bottom line so I doubt what is being reported is excessive negative spin. In fact what is going on in China is much worse and the thieves on Wall Street are loath for that to be revealed. Sorry Mak, too bad it can’t be as simple as your “US ministry of propaganda” copy and paste broken record agenda speak.

shortonoil on Thu, 23rd Jul 2015 4:24 pm 



“Joe, I wouldn’t worry about China if I were you.”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-23/china-electricity-consumption-grows-slowest-pace-30-years

Considering the immense leverage that China has used to racket up its economy over the last 20 years, an electrical consumption rate increase of 1.3% probably spells implosion. China’s economy is no longer growing fast enough to maintain itself. It can obviously no longer service its debt. The collapse of China will spell disaster for the entire world’s economy.

It would be nice to think that China has some miracle recipe to avoid its enviable outcome, but let’s be realistic. It doesn’t.

Northwest Resident on Thu, 23rd Jul 2015 4:56 pm 



It’s going to hurt Mak real bad when China implodes in a giant fiery plume of ash and debris and his delusions of grandeur about China splatter on the floor like dropped eggs. Problem is, we are all going to feel the pain when China erupts, which it is already in the process of doing. No way do we make it out of 2015 in one piece. I hope you all have some preps and plans in place.

shortonoil on Thu, 23rd Jul 2015 7:12 pm 



“No way do we make it out of 2015 in one piece.”

Well — it’s a huge economy and it has a lot of momentum. It could take quit awhile for it to completely unravel, then again, it may not? The only thing that I am completely sure of is that it will be mostly gone by 2030; the theoretical end of the oil age.

Personally, I’ve taken steps to mitigate the pain for myself as much as possible. I sold the house a couple of years ago, and bought an RV. I have property in Vermont, Virginia, and Florida where I have set up bio-diesel generators. They are all very isolated. That gives me an effective range of about 2,000 miles. As I don’t expect everything to come apart at the same rate, in the same place at the same time, as long as the roads are passable, I’ll be able to move to the more habitable areas as things progress. That of course, depends on knowing were the best areas are at any point in time. Once the net goes down that is going to be reduced to guess work.

In the mean time I’m working on the site, traveling, meeting people, and watching the effects of the oil age’s demise. I see it everywhere I go. Construction in New England has stopped, and we have become a society of Face Book inhabits with very little contact with reality. Most of them will not be able to deal with what’s coming even after it has arrived. But, there is no use in freaking out about it. Make your plans, and realize it is all just one big crap shoot. Some will roll 7,s and 11,s some snake eyes. The best to all.

Northwest Resident on Thu, 23rd Jul 2015 9:36 pm 



You know me, shortonoil. I go for dramatic effect. I also have artistic license. And I’m not a believer in a long drawn out collapse. I am sure that there is a breaking point coming, beyond which sheer panic and herd mentality will take over. Once that snowball starts rolling downhill, things will unravel very quickly. I’m betting this is THE year that it all comes unglued, based on observation, what other much more qualified individuals than I have predicted, and on my own intuition. If I’m a year or two early, that’s great, I’ll be even more ready. I hope others are thinking along the same lines — better to be an hour early than to be a minute late, in this case especially.

Makati1 on Thu, 23rd Jul 2015 10:26 pm 



Guys, let China implode and take down the rest of the global economy. Maybe it will save civilization in the end. It would certainly save a lot of resources for those few who survive. Do it now and avoid the rush! Buckle up!

Makati1 on Thu, 23rd Jul 2015 10:32 pm 



NWR, no it isn’t. I’m ready for the coming disaster, are you? I see all of the sides of China. I think they may pull off a miracle and avoid the crash, but odds are, they will not.

But, they will take down the rest of the world if they cannot. That is the cost of globalization and the tight web we have woven over the last 50 years. The US committed economic suicide when it shipped it’s jobs and factories to Asia. Now it will pay the price of its centuries of plundering the 3rde world.

I like to point out the nonexceptionalism of the Empire of Chaos. The race to the bottom is on and the US is ahead, if you pay attention.

Makati1 on Thu, 23rd Jul 2015 11:32 pm 



Apneaman, the Chinese sold about $450 billion in US paper these last few months and the drain on the US is not likely to slow. At what point does it all crash?

http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/shock-report-china-dumps-half-a-trillion-dollars-something-is-very-very-wrong-they-are-being-aggressively-sold_07222015

Davy on Fri, 24th Jul 2015 12:02 am 



Damn, Mak sobered up. He finally admits his Asia is sinking.

apneaman on Fri, 24th Jul 2015 12:10 am 



Yeah Mak, I just don’t know about dates or the order. Strange shit has been known to happen when apes are trying to drive the bus. TPTB will try to pull out all the stops and the 99%ers lives don’t mean shit. What is clear is that the whole globalized industrial project is near the end. Nothing they try would shock me. If the mother of all economic crashes does happen, then we might be in for a world of pain in short order as the industrial particulate falls back to earth and global dimming goes away.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 24th Jul 2015 12:18 am 



“US committed economic suicide when it shipped it’s jobs and factories to Asia”

Probably much sooner than that.

China is unloading all that “US paper” because so much capital is fleeing out of China, they have no choice.

China is finally dumping the dollar, not because it is a grand scheme to undermine America and the dollar as some have long fantasized, but because China is desperate and has no choice.

Davy on Fri, 24th Jul 2015 12:31 am 



Yea, NR, that’s what I have been reading also. Things are getting dicey in the Middle Kingdom. You may be right NR this could be the SHTF year. I don’t know why but I feel like this will be a bad recession first then at some point a year or two latter a snap, crackle, and the final pop. I am probably thinking like that because I would love to have another year or two of prep.

Northwest Resident on Fri, 24th Jul 2015 1:44 am 



Davy — I hope you’re right. Theoretically, TPTB could drag this out another couple of years, I suppose. They’ve done a heck of a job dragging it out this long. But the power of propaganda and mass media hypnosis is wearing thin, like everything else experiencing diminishing returns. What happens when a whole lot of people lose their jobs and companies are severely impacted by slowdown/disintegration in China? It looks like that is happening now, and just beginning. The fracking revolution is dead in the water just barely hanging on, the real bust isn’t far away. When enough people lose their jobs, we’ll be in deep doo-doo, that’s just a fact. Getting a major garden going fast and make sure you have propagating your own seed down to a science are highly recommended. Making sure that at this point right now, you are ready to go full self-sufficiency is the right attitude — what I would consider leading the way. Probably it won’t get that bad, not in America. I suspect that there are plans in place to maintain order during a rough transition — let’s hope so. I do know that in America, if people just stopped driving cars and if useless factories and all internet porn sites shut down, we would be energy self-sufficient or very close to it. In a command economy, they could keep the power on, the food growing, the food distribution functional, the electronic media channels open, the sanitation working and the fresh water pumping, most likely. But the more of us that are ready to take care of ourselves, on our own, the better. So I approach that goal with a sense of extreme urgency. Others should too, IMO.