It was only a week ago that OPEC and Non-OPEC agreed to add 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) to the market, but it already feels like a distant memory with the oil bulls back on the march
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Brent rose more than 1 percent in early trading on Friday, and is not far off of $80 per barrel. This week saw prices gain about 10 percent compared to last week after a combination of fears of Iran production outages, disruptions in Libya and a bullish stock draw in the U.S. It was only a week ago that OPEC+ promised to add 1 million barrels per day (mb/d) to the market, but it already feels like a distant memory with the oil bulls back on the march.
U.S. dials back hardline on Iran imports. Earlier this week, a State Department official laid out what sounded like a “zero tolerance” policy for nations cutting oil imports from Iran. The official said that countries need to “zero” out their imports by November, and that it would be unlikely anyone would receive a waiver. The statement led to a spike in oil prices because the market had to dramatically revise up the assumed outage from Iran. On Thursday, a State Department official appeared to soften the line. “Our focus is to work with those countries importing Iranian crude oil to get as many of them as possible down to zero by Nov. 4,” the official said Thursday. “We are prepared to work with countries that are reducing their imports on a case-by-case basis. We are serious about our efforts to pressure Iran to change its threatening behavior.” The walking back of the “zero” imports mantra suggests the U.S. fears the fallout of pushing oil prices too high.
India tells refiners to prepare for “zero” imports from Iran. India’s oil minister advised its refiners to prepare for a “drastic reduction or zero” oil imports from Iran by November, due to the threat of U.S. sanctions. India, as a close neighbor and significant purchaser of oil from Iran, appears willing to wind down oil imports from Iran even as it does not recognize the sanctions as legitimate. India’s actions are an indication that Washington could wield far-reaching influence over Iran’s oil exports, even though much of the world is not lined up with the U.S. position.
Saudi Arabia to ramp up production to 10.8-11.0 mb/d. Saudi Arabia reportedly will ramp up oil production to 10.8 mb/d in July, perhaps as high as 11.0 mb/d. The plans come as a series of outages around the world have pushed oil prices and left the market in a deficit. The increase in production, however, could eliminate as much as 40 percent of Saudi Arabia’s spare capacity, taking available capacity down to around 1.5 mb/d, a rather small buffer. “It basically leaves us with no spare capacity, at a time when Iran isn’t the only issue,” Amrita Sen, chief oil analyst at consultant Energy Aspects Ltd., said in a Bloomberg television interview. “Venezuelan production’s falling, Angola, Libya, Nigeria –there are lots and lots of issues everywhere in the world.”
Oil jumps on massive crude draw. The U.S. saw crude inventories plunge by 9.9 million barrels last week, another sign of a tightening oil market. Oil futures jumped more than 3 percent on the news.
Argentina puts in place price controls, roiling shale industry. In an effort to shield consumers from inflation and a weak currency, Argentina’s government capped the price at which oil producers can sell their oil to refiners, and also fixed the price of petrol at the pump. That means oil producers in Argentina have to sell their product at prices much lower than the international price. “Suddenly from moving in the right direction, it feels like the country is taking a step back,” Anuj Sharma, CEO of Phoenix Global Resources, told the FT. “If there’s one thing markets hate, it is uncertainty. It makes planning very difficult.”
BP to buy UK electric vehicle charging company. BP (NYSE: BP) said it plans to acquire the largest EV recharging company in the UK. BP will pay $170 million for Chargemaster, which runs 6,500 charging points in the UK. The acquisition is the latest sign that the oil majors are beginning to plan for a post-oil world, diversifying their assets as a hedge against peak oil demand.
Venezuela to restart oil upgrader. Venezuela’s PDVSA said earlier this week that its Petropiar oil upgrader, a joint venture with Chevron (NYSE: CVX), will restart after being offline for maintenance for weeks. The 210,000-bpd facility help process heavy oil into an exportable product have been under strain because of poor maintenance and bottlenecks at the country’s ports.
Libya sees internal strife, oil output hangs in the balance. The outage of Libya’s ports have knocked more than 400,000 bpd offline but the decision by General Khalifa Haftar to hand over the ports to a rival National Oil Corp. in Benghazi, as opposed to the internationally-recognized NOC in Tripoli, has opened up a new flashpoint that could keep oil sidelined for longer. The government in Tripoli is trying to line up international support to prevent oil exports from the east. The U.S., U.K., France and Italy expressed concern about the transfer to “an entity other than the legitimate National Oil Corporation,” the countries said in a joint statement.
Royal Dutch Shell exits Iraq Majnoon oil field. Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) exited the Majnoon oil field in southern Iraq this week, handing over its operations to the state-run Basra Oil Co., according to Reuters. Operations are not expected to be affected at the 235,000-bpd field.
Energy stocks best performing sector in S&P 500. After being one of the worst performing sectors in the S&P 500 in 2017, energy is now one of the best. Energy stocks are set to close out the second quarter up 12 percent, the largest quarterly gain since 2011. The gains make energy the best performing sector in the S&P for the second quarter.
Minnesota greenlights Canadian oil pipeline. While Keystone XL and the Trans Mountain Expansion remain in limbo, the most likely major Canadian oil pipeline to go forward is Enbridge’s (NYSE: ENB) Line 3 Replacement. The project, which would replace an old and deteriorating pipeline, allowing it to more than double capacity, just cleared an important hurdle this week when it received a regulatory approval from Minnesota. The pipeline runs from Alberta to Minnesota and Wisconsin, allowing Canadian oil to reach refineries in the U.S. Midwest. Native American tribes who sit in the pipeline’s path have threatened massive protests similar to the Dakota Access protests from two years ago.
twocats on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 7:46 am
i’m not saying your above average globalist cuck could have prevented the oil train from getting this out of control – but it is interesting to consider that Trump may have accelerated the arrival of Peak Liquids.
“You mean I have to manage every aspect of this roiling empire on a near-daily basis?! This is the worst job ever!!”
jawagord on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 9:01 am
Apparently Tom Fool missed the real story on why WTI prices have jumped but then it was only news about the unimportant Canadian oil sands, why report on that when you can babble on about Iran and Venezuela.
“Syncrude’s facility has a capacity of 350,000 barrels of oil per day, but it shut down production on Friday after a transformer blew, the Globe and Mail reported. The company says production could be offline for all of July.
That will shrink stockpiles at the main U.S. storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma, putting upward pressure on oil prices, Goldman Sachs said.”
https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/06/26/syncrude-outage-oil-shortage-north-america_a_23468490/
dissident on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 10:44 am
We had lots of MSM clowns and pundits pimping the notion that oil would crash under $20 thanks to the boundless supply from “shale” plays. What a retarded joke!
Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 1:35 pm
I think the oil market was disappointed that OPEC/KSA only are bumping crude production by up to 1 million BPD.
Add to that the big unexpected crude drawdown, the drama over Iranian production, and that the market had been down 10% already over speculation about much higher OPEC production, and no wonder we’re up 9ish bucks recently.
Longer term, the real interesting question is if higher prices (like $80 to say $110) on a sustained basis can get the higher fracking production that was bandied about during the recent glut.
If not, then increasing global demand will mean significantly higher prices in time. The good news is that should be GREAT for HEV’s, PHEV’s and BEV’s as they become more available.
When you can have a mainstream comfortable family car like a modern accord or Sedan HEV and get nearly 50 mpg in the city instead of maybe 20 mpg (real world) for the pure ICE version, it becomes a no-brainer if gasoline gets to $4 or more on a likely sustained basis.
And with that, no big price tags, etc.
And as long as the federal tax credits hold out in the US, PHEV’s getting about 50 miles of pure EV range like the Volt or the Honda Clarity look mighty sensible for city commuters.
Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 1:36 pm
For the first world, no need to panic as people can adapt via more efficient transpo, for even much higher fuel prices.
For the poorer countries though, that will get nasty unless they can go to bikes/scooters instead of cars.
Bob Jones on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 3:27 pm
1st world? American morons still talk like that?
Last I checked, Earth is one planet.
Unless you believe you live somewhere other than Earth.
twocats on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 5:17 pm
yeah OS really not even close to reality. trying to simplify the issues down to OPEC, EVs, and $100 oil for the sake of fracking, is like a toddlers understanding of object permanence.
over the past six months, maybe earlier, the behind-the-scenes has quietly changed to one of panic and now its not at all clear who is going to bail the world economy out of this, or if any of the recent outages will be short lived. the next 12 months are going to be choppy the whole way through with little respite
the key for EIA will be to downgrade their estimates over time so the oil markets don’t freak out and spike the prices.
Makati1 on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 5:38 pm
Outcast, gasoline prices here in the Ps has been about $4 per gallon for at least 10 years. It is still around the same $4. Most Filipinos don’t use gasoline directly, only commercial use, which could raise the cost of a 50# sack of rice maybe a peso or two. Ditto for most of the world outside the OECD.
Americans have a distorted view of the real world and of their own importance. LOL
BTW: a Philippine Peso is worth about $0.02 today.
Makati1 on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 5:59 pm
I might add, that here in the Ps, goods that come into port are mostly going to go to buyers within 20 miles. Only a small percentage goes to other places and they are less than 200 miles away. Not like in the Us where stuff is trucked thousands of miles to the buyer at high cost. Then again, most Filipinos don’t buy imported goods. They buy local.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 5:59 pm
Madkat
Here is your evidence the collapse will be global and rapid..
A domino can knock over another domino about 1.5x larger than itself. A chain of dominos of increasing size makes a kind of mechanical chain reaction that starts with a tiny push and knocks down an impressively large domino.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5JCm5FY-dEY
Makati1 on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 6:37 pm
Mm, the domino idea is older than I am. It has zero to do with reality or finance.
Keep clutching at straws that the rest of the world will go down when the Us does. Fantasy is one of your trademarks.
onlooker on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 6:38 pm
https://collapseofindustrialcivilization.com/tag/eroei/
ABOUT
Collapse of Industrial Civilization
Bob Jones on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 7:23 pm
A lot of us are stuck in the ‘Murica with no way out.
It must be nice to sit on the shore (ie Phillippines) and watch as the ‘Merikan boat sinks.
Man, it sucks to be alive right now… especially knowing it’s going to get worse with all these American self-important, self-entitled, the world-owes-me, finger-pointing, narcissistic, gun-crazed, holier-than-thou idiots running around.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 7:36 pm
Madkat
Who is going to buy all of the stuff China makes when the OECD collapses?
To think that China could just keeping going without their largest consumers..Is just mind boggling..Then again you are a very old and feeble minded man.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 7:57 pm
Fun Fact: Fox News was founded and is owned by an immigrant.
“Rupert Murdoch”
Keith Rupert Murdoch, born 11 March 1931) is an Australian-born American media mogul.
In 1985, became a naturalized U.S. citizen, giving up his Australian citizenship, to satisfy the legal requirement for U.S. television ownership.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupert_Murdoch
You can’t make this stuff up..
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 8:17 pm
Bob
I know what you mean..The US will be the worst country in the world to be when the collapse happens..Just remember there are many different forms of escape you can choose..That is my advice..Go out on top..
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 9:14 pm
Attention Doomie preppers
Here is a map of all the worlds nuclear power plants..And when the global economy collapses..They will all melt down and explode 10k Hiroshima bombs worth of radiation..And every human being on earth will go extinct..
https://i.redd.it/f037i1h9m4711.png
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 9:36 pm
Humans can not live without illusions. For the men and woman of today, an irrational faith in progress may be the only antidote to nihilism. Without the hope that the future will be better than the past they could not go on.
-John N Gray
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 9:38 pm
With the oil price spiking developing countries like India, China and Pakistan’s currencies are getting crushed due to their high oil import bills…
LMFAO!
Makati1 on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 9:41 pm
MM, “Who is going to buy all of the stuff China makes when the OECD collapses?” Why the other six billion consumers on the planet outside of the OECD. Did you forget them?
But then a coward, YOU, would not think that the rest of the world just may go on without the Us, but it will. Maybe at a lower level of consumption, but that is ok. There is a long way to the bottom for non-Americans. Think of the 1800s world. The most pain will be felt in the Us. Not China,m Russia or the Ps.
Makati1 on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 9:47 pm
MM: “… they will all melt down and explode…”. You failed physics 101 right? We covered your delusion about this topic last year. Meltdowns do NOT explode. See Fukushima for real facts about meltdowns.
Your assumption does not take into account the FACT that a melt down would probably slowly kill their families. Nuclear reactors will be shut down safely, not abandoned. Abandonment would be a slow suicide for the workers and their families. Only you contemplate the easy way out.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 9:48 pm
Madkat
You didn’t answer the question..You just said the world will go on without giving any reasons of how it will go without their largest customers? You are deluding yourself because you are ignorant and uneducated..When the OECD goes down it will cause a domino effect that will collapse the entire global economy..game over..
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 9:51 pm
Madkat
Fukushima didn’t explode because there were tons of people available to pour water and keep it cooled down..there won’t be anybody to do that when the lights go out..Duh..
Makati1 on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 9:54 pm
“It must be nice to sit on the shore (ie Phillippines) and watch as the ‘Merikan boat sinks.”
Well, to some degree, you are correct. I see the end of the Us empire as the only way for the rest of the world to survive. I have family and friends in ‘Merika’ but they mostly ignore my warnings to prep or get out. I cannot help them. I am resigned to spending the rest of my life watching the Us decline and become a 3rd world police state dictatorship from those Pacific shores. A fitting end to the country that has been terrorizing the world for at least 70 years. What goes around…
GregT on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 9:59 pm
Here is a real map of the world’s nuclear reactors, which includes: Yellow = under construction. Blue = planned. Orange = not operating. Green = operating. Red = shut down. (zoom for your location)
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/interactive/2012/mar/08/nuclear-power-plants-world-map
If you live in an area that is downwind from these reactors, and they can no longer be maintained, expect the incidence of cancers to increase over the next 50 or more years. If you believe that may be a problem in the future for your location, now would be a good time to move elsewhere.
Makati1 on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 10:01 pm
Mm, a meltdown is a meltdown. Why do you think it is an explosion? Again, you must have failed physics 101. When the reactor heats up, it MELTS the container and MELTS its way into the earth until it cools enough to stop the process.
You are just showing your lack of education and comprehension skills by insisting you are correct when you are wrong. No matter how much you want them to explode and justify your cowardly suicide, it does not. They will not.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 10:05 pm
Madkat
You just want the US to collapse to get back at your ex wife for leaving you all alone..there is no logical reason why someone who moves half way across the earth..would even give a shit about their prior home country..You are just another self serving self righteous ahole..
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 10:07 pm
Madkat
Humans can not live without illusions. For the men and woman of today, an irrational faith in progress may be the only antidote to nihilism. Without the hope that the future will be better than the past they could not go on.
-John N Gray
Makati1 on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 10:11 pm
Mm, you are only trying to justify your cowardly suicide by refusing to think rationally. Maybe you are not capable of that. I have seen no evidence of it in most of your posts.
“When the OECD goes down it will cause a domino effect that will collapse the entire global economy..game over..”
Have you considered that most of the non-OECD countries are moving out of dollars and into other currencies and gold? So are some of the OECD countries. They see what is coming and are prepping (pun intended) for it. So is the IMF with its basket of currencies. Apparently you have not. You are too brainwashed (Amerocentric) to consider anything you are not spoon fed from your masters.
Makati1 on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 10:14 pm
Reverting to that 3rd grade schoolyard bully persona MM? Typical when you have no rational rebuttal. Many people probably billions) know that the future will not be better. They still manage to survive and enjoy life now. So do I.
GregT on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 10:16 pm
“Humans can not live without illusions. For the men and woman of today, an irrational faith in progress may be the only antidote to nihilism. Without the hope that the future will be better than the past they could not go on.”
Describes you to a ‘T’ perfectly MM. You are the only one here who has expressed suicidal tendencies.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 10:45 pm
Greg
You are totally obsessed about my escape plan..And it makes no difference to you anyways..And if things get as bad as I think they will I am going to die anyways..what difference does it make if I just speed up the process by a weeks time, so I don’t have to suffer? Just because I won’t delude myself and join your paranoid cult of survivalism..
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 10:47 pm
Greg
That quote describes you..You are the one who deludes yourself into thinking the future will be bright..I have never said that..I think we are head towards NTHE…Worse than even Guy McPherson’s worst nightmares..
LMFAO!
Makati1 on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 10:56 pm
Still unable to understand/comprehend English MM? I read Greg’s comment and nowhere did I see him saying that the future was going to be ‘bright’. He was commenting on your thoughts.
He did point out your irrational negativity in the way you your self indicate… suicide. No rational human would even consider it unless they were already dying from some painful, incurable disease or wound. Suicide is the coward’s way out and leaves no possibility of a good future. The future may not be like you want, but it will be definitely better than no future.
GregT on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 11:11 pm
“That quote describes you..You are the one who deludes yourself into thinking the future will be bright..I have never said that..I think we are head towards NTHE…Worse than even Guy McPherson’s worst nightmares..”
I have no delusions at all about the future MM. At some point in time the bottom will drop out of MIS. My biggest concern is not if it does, my biggest concern is if it does not. And MM, Dr. McPherson has a rather extensive background in evolutionary biology, you do not. A few years of regurgitating what somebody else told you to, does not constitute experience, or intelligence. Not even remotely close to either.
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 11:12 pm
Madkat
If you are starving to death than you are already dying..I am not going to starve and die a painful and agonizing death if I don’t have to..Its that simple..i am not doing it because i don’t want to live..I am doing it so I wont have to suffer because I am going to die anyways..
And this is the last fucking time I explain myself..
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 11:24 pm
Fox News is owned by an immigrant
“Rupert Murdoch”.
Ironic isn’t it?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rupert_Murdoch
GregT on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 11:28 pm
Poor MM is going to put a bullet into his head to avoid starvation. You are obviously not the sharpest tool in the shed MM, or a survivor, and your gene pool is going to be wiped out. Natural selection and all. You will not be missed. After they clean up your grey matter, and your blood, the rest of humanity won’t even notice that you are gone.
Duncan Idaho on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 11:44 pm
“Freedom without Socialism is privilege & injustice, & Socialism without freedom is slavery & brutality”
— Mikhail Bakunin
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 11:44 pm
Greg
Hey if you want to die via conflict, starvation, or radiation poisoning..Go right ahead..And unlike you I don’t wish pain and suffering to anyone..
MASTERMIND on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 11:47 pm
Duncan
I like that quote..My favorite from Bakunin was..
A boss in heaven is the best excuse for a boss on earth..So if god did exist, he would have to be abolished..
– Bakunin
GregT on Sat, 30th Jun 2018 11:54 pm
“ant to die via conflict, starvation, or radiation poisoning..Go right ahead..And unlike you I don’t wish pain and suffering to anyone.”
You stick with your plan MM, I have no control over that, but I have to admit, the more of you extremely stupid people that kill yourselves off, the less pressure on the 4 billion that will be around by 2100. ( according to your ‘peer reviewed’ studies) I don’t personally wish anything bad towards you MM, you stick with your plan, and I’ll stick to mine.
MASTERMIND on Sun, 1st Jul 2018 12:18 am
Greg
The difference in me and you and our plans..is that i am not trying to persuade you into following my plan..that is why you fear and ridicule me so often..you are just like a religious person..you want everyone to believe what you do, so you can use them as a reason to think you are right..
Makati1 on Sun, 1st Jul 2018 12:23 am
“And this is the last fucking time I explain myself..” We know you are a coward, MM. That you have psychological problems just like Davy. You just don’t want to do anything to even try to save yourself.
I do not see starvation in MY future. I’m prepping to avoid that possibility. I’m helping my neighbors prep also. I do not see starvation happening any more than it currently does around the world. You seem to believe all of that Us MSM propaganda and their Hollywood version of the future. Too bad.
BTW: Do you plan to off your mom and girlfriend too, or are they more rational than you and want to live for the future?
Makati1 on Sun, 1st Jul 2018 12:27 am
BTW MM, no rational, intelligent person even considers “your plan”. Suicide is the cowards way out. You are obviously a spoiled brat that cannot handle any pressure or challenge. So, do it now and save the world those resources you are wasting. You will not be missed.
GregT on Sun, 1st Jul 2018 12:28 am
The difference between yourself and myself MM, is that I am not attempting to tell you that your plan is wrong. If you have no other options other than putting a bullet into your own head, then who am to stop you? My plan is solid, for me. You stick to your plan, and I’ll stick with mine.
Cloggie on Sun, 1st Jul 2018 1:02 am
That quote describes you..You are the one who deludes yourself into thinking the future will be bright..I have never said that..I think we are head towards NTHE…Worse than even Guy McPherson’s worst nightmares..
LMFAO!
Millimind is a satanist. An absolute sadist. The US over the last 100 years has been run by these kind of criminals and this is never going to stop until Washington has been thoroughly cleaned out from the mob. A few days ago Davy, who now seems to be defeated, was begging millimind for support and cooperation against what he called a gang of five. Davy has now gone full antifa. He must be learning a lot about himself lately, after he voted for Trump. What a breathtaking change of heart!
Cloggie on Sun, 1st Jul 2018 1:06 am
And unlike you I don’t wish pain and suffering to anyone..
Yes you do, you shabby bolshevik liar.
GregT on Sun, 1st Jul 2018 1:39 am
“Millimind is a satanist. An absolute sadist. The US over the last 100 years has been run by these kind of criminals”
MM is a psychopath Cloggie. Sadism and psychopathy go hand in hand.
GregT on Sun, 1st Jul 2018 1:59 am
And Cloggie, other than lobotomy, there is no cure for psychopathy.