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Page added on August 17, 2012
Oil Prices Need to Double in a Decade
Michael Kumhof explains the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Research Department’s new, strikingly more accurate, oil supply/price/demand prediction model, and says that according to the model oil prices will need to double in a decade to grow world oil production by 0.9%, in line with published EIA predictions*.
The world economy could not cope with a doubling of oil prices, which begs the question of whether world oil production can be increased at all, at a price that anyone can afford.
Kumhof is very careful to stress the uncertainties surrounding the IMF’s predictions, but brings the world a message that any reasonable growth in world oil production will be accompanied by serious episodes of demand destruction.
6 Comments on "Oil Prices Need to Double in a Decade"
Newfie on Fri, 17th Aug 2012 3:35 pm
The Peak Oil Boom Bust Cycle. Game over…
mike on Fri, 17th Aug 2012 3:59 pm
This is going to be a long slow and very painful collapse.
Plantagenet on Fri, 17th Aug 2012 4:06 pm
No problem. Take the 700 billion Obama swiped from Medicare, and use it to subsidize low gas prices instead.
VP on Fri, 17th Aug 2012 10:42 pm
There is no money taken from Medicare. The GROWTH of medicare expenses is being constrained, over time.
BillT on Sat, 18th Aug 2012 12:16 am
Planet…The Meds, Medicare & Medicaid, will have to be cut drastically over the next few years to make them possible at all. That means, some type of ‘means testing’ for eligibility, probably based on income, and some restrictions on their use, say, no heroic measures after 80. I agree, and I am 68. I live in the Philippines and have NO medical coverage, as the Meds do not pay for ‘out of country’ care. So I have nothing to lose, but I see my own parents who are in their late 80s and understand the pain it will cause, but also the necessity for the cuts. Both my mom and my step dad have had procedures that have cost in excess of $100,000.00 each. Those were only two of numerous trips to the hospital and rehab over the last 10 years. Together, they probably have cost $300,000.00+ from the Meds. Multiply that by the 70 million over the next 20 years and you get more than a trillion dollars a year in costs to taxpayers. Do you think that is even possible? Nope! So it WILL be cut and soon. Probably in the next 4 years. Wait and see.
destroyb4new on Sat, 18th Aug 2012 3:10 pm
how come speculators like to trow major collapse events in to the future,it’s not just oil that’s on the other side of peak oil.there’s the banks the credit the wars the food,everything you can think of converging to accelerate the shit which is what the systems are going down the drain.