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Page added on September 7, 2018
Oil demand to hit 100 mln bpd sooner than projected
World oil consumption will reach 100 million barrels per day (bpd) later this year, hitting that level much sooner than previously forecast, OPEC’s secretary-general said on Wednesday.
Mohammad Barkindo also told an energy conference in South Africa’s Cape Town that a stable environment was needed to encourage oil industry investment to meet the rising demand.
“The world will attain the 100 million barrels a day mark of consumption later this year, much sooner than we all earlier projected. Therefore stabilizing forces which create conditions conducive to attracting investments are essential,” he said.
“The priority … is on ensuring stability is sustainable, spreading confidence in the industry and encouraging an environment conducive to the return of investments,” he added.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with Russia and other producers have implemented a deal since January 2017 on cutting 1.8 million bpd from output to prop up prices that fell below $30 a barrel in 2016 from over $100 in 2014.
On Wednesday, benchmark Brent LCOc1 was trading at just below $78.
Barkindo said oil industry confidence was returning and OPEC was exploring ways of institutionalizing cooperation between OPEC and its non-OPEC allies on their production levels.
Barkindo also told reporters at the conference that global trade disputes could hurt energy demand in future, although he said he was hopeful the uncertainty would lift soon.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats against China, the world’s second-biggest economic power, have caused jitters in markets across the world.
“The trade disputes that are emerging among some of the leading partners in the world will eventually hurt (global economic) growth and, by extension, demand for energy,” he said.
“But we are confident … these parties will be able to overcome some of these challenges,” Barkindo said. “We are hopeful we will be able to overcome this cloud of uncertainty regarding trade as quickly as we can in order to mitigate the contagion.”
10 Comments on "Oil demand to hit 100 mln bpd sooner than projected"
Here we go again on Fri, 7th Sep 2018 8:07 pm
World’s population expected to hit 8 billion sooner than expected
World’s CO2 will hit 420 ppm sooner than expected
World’s fcked sooner than expected
makati1 on Fri, 7th Sep 2018 9:19 pm
“So we shall let the reader answer this question for himself: who is the happier man, he who has braved the storm of life and lived or he who has stayed securely on shore and merely existed?”
Hunter S. Thompson
makati1 on Fri, 7th Sep 2018 9:20 pm
“A man who procrastinates in his choosing will inevitably have his choice made for him by circumstance.”
Hunter S. Thompson
deadly on Fri, 7th Sep 2018 11:10 pm
Careening towards madness, it’s just a matter of time.
365 times 100 000 000 equals 36.5 billion barrels in one year of consumption down the drain.
In ten years, 365 billion, thirty years, 3 x 365 equals 1095 billion barrels in 30 years.
Times 70 dollars per barrel, 2 555 000 000 000 dollars spent on oil in one year, that’s 2.555 trillion dollars. People use oil like it is going out of style. And… it’s gone.
It’ll be getting close to panic time by then when the year 2048 finally arrives, pandemonium and chaos of biblical proportions taking place, tumultuous times.
Oil’s inevitable end will be the culprit. Just could be the end of the line in thirty years, 2048 is a long ways away.
There will be 2.4 billion more people at 80 million added each year, barring any cataclysmic catastrophe, you’ll be at 10 000 000 000 humans running wild on every continent and ocean, everything at once, all gone wild.
You’ll need 130 000 000 barrels each day with that many humans roaming the planet in search of a destiny.
Running hard to the Seneca Cliff.
That is, systems may collapse when just one of the elements that compose them fails. That may lead to the failure of the elements that surround it. These, in turn, cause the failure of other elements of the system, and so it goes. The result is what we call an “avalanche” and, as Seneca said, “ruin is rapid”. It is a feature of the systems we call “networks”, which have undergone a very rapid development of studies in this regard.
So, I wrote an entire book on the subject that you may find interesting. But one question I am often asked about this book is, “can we use it to predict the future?” The answer is, in the words of Mark Twain, that predictions are always difficult, especially when they have to do with the future. What is the future if not a bundle of possibilities that we ourselves decide whether to turn into reality or not? The future can not be predicted, one can only be prepared for the future.
Seneca himself would probably have agreed with this concept: he was deeply involved in the Stoic philosophy. As a good Stoic, he knew that we must always be prepared for the future, knowing full well that ruin can come upon us at any moment. This is true for individuals as well as for an entire society. He himself experienced a “rapid ruin” when his former pupil, Emperor Nero, accused him of treason and ordered him to commit sucide. Seneca had no other choice but to comply.
We can use mathematical models to describe the “Seneca Effect,” but they are mainly a quantification of ancient wisdom. It is not a question of predicting the future, it is a question of understanding it. And we can use the models to understand that the ecosystem in which we live is not a supermarket from which we can take what we need – and without even having to pay. It is a complex system, subject to the Seneca Collapse. And since we are also part of the ecosystem, when the ecosystem collapses, we collapse, too. Even a stoic like Seneca would have said that if we can try to avoid climate collapse and other environmental disasters, we must try.
Seneca was forced to drink the kool-aid. Freaking hilarious.
Something will have to give, have to bend before it breaks.
The potato patch has an above average yield this year.
Time to celebrate, so another beer is the answer.
Pat on Sat, 8th Sep 2018 1:19 am
The world oil demand will see 120-130 million by 2018 much higher than any predicted. The ever rising obstacles due to depletion, geopolitical, eroei, black glue, sands, hard oil etc world see oil shortages begin 2018 only accelerate 2020. Really don’t see even oil lasting 30 years normal functioning, oil last 10 more years. 2030 will see total collapse as others natural gas, coal, renewables cannot power, feed the world, replace the oil which is engine of world as we know. Oil see $300-400 barrel 2020 and over $150 dollar by November,2018. start prepare…
Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 8th Sep 2018 1:53 am
Pat, don’t bet your day job or your personal investments on either $150 a BBL by Nov. 2018 (just two months) or 125ish million BBL per day consumed.
Where did you learn math? Your imagination? Hint: global oil consumption in BBL per day is rising at a rate of under 2% a year, and has been for over a decade, not at 150%ish a year, as your scenario requires.
Just making numbers up is a fun game for Cassandras, but just results in many wrong predictions, year after year.
dave thompson on Sat, 8th Sep 2018 7:10 am
So much for the “transition” away from FF.
Sissyfuss on Sat, 8th Sep 2018 9:01 am
OS, using Cassandra as a metaphor is wrong because she was right and like you, nobody listened. The only factor that gives you the conviction that you’re always correct is your massive ego, not your erudition. Pat has every chance to be correct in his musings as you do. There are no gods on this panel, just us imperfect mortals trying to understand what is happening to our world. We all have our perspectives to contribute and hopefully we can comprehend the truth that emerges from the various predictions.
makati1 on Sat, 8th Sep 2018 6:32 pm
Sissy, many want to believe that, just because the timeline does not always fit the prognostication, the ‘Cassandra’ was wrong. Not only governments, but big oil has been pulling rabbits out of the hat to prevent collapse of BAU for as long as they can, and that includes lying to the point that the lies have become blatant and visible to all but the most deeply in denial persons.
Real ‘oil’ peeked a long time ago, but cheap debt has kept it going a bit longer, making the eventual fall even harder. Ditto for government debt, personal debt and corporate debt. That 2X4 of reality has become a 4X4, or larger, and it is going to hurt when it hits.
Cloggie on Sun, 9th Sep 2018 11:51 am
Who is going to bring the bad news to millimind, the village idiot?