Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on September 20, 2018
Now near 100 million bpd, when will oil demand peak?
Sometime in the next few weeks, global oil consumption will reach 100 million barrels per day (bpd) – more than twice what it was 50 years ago – and it shows no immediate sign of falling.
Despite overwhelming evidence of carbon-fuelled climate change and billions in subsidies for alternative technologies such as wind and solar power, oil is so entrenched in the modern world that demand is still rising by up to 1.5 percent a year.
There is no consensus on when world oil demand will peak but it is clear much depends on how governments respond to global warming. That’s the view of the International Energy Agency (IEA), which advises Western economies on energy policy.
As Bassam Fattouh and Anupama Sen of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies said in a presentation last month, the debate over peak demand “signifies a shift in perception from scarcity to abundance”, which is already changing the behavior of all players in the world oil market, including exporters.
“Taking the ‘peak demand’ argument forward, it is generally thought that the world is on the brink of another energy transition, in which conventional sources such as oil will eventually be substituted away in favor of low-carbon sources.”
OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo told a conference in South Africa on Sept. 5 that global consumption would hit 100 million bpd this year, sooner than anyone had projected.
With a sophisticated global infrastructure for extraction, refining and distribution, oil produces such a powerful burst of energy that it is invaluable for some forms of transport such as aircraft.
Of the almost 100 million barrels of oil consumed daily, more than 60 million bpd goes for transport, and alternative fuel systems such as battery-powered electric cars still have little market share.
GRAPHIC: Primary energy demand by fuel – 1970-2040 – reut.rs/2MNFxuU
Much of the remaining oil is used to make plastics by a petrochemicals industry that has few alternative feedstocks.
Although government pressure to limit the use of hydrocarbons such as oil, gas and coal is increasing, few analysts believe oil demand will decrease in the next decade.
GRAPHIC: When will crude oil demand peak? reut.rs/2CEGUfs
If the current mix of policies continues, the IEA expects world oil demand to rise for at least the next 20 years, heading for 125 million bpd around mid-century.
Oil demand would rise less quickly if governments moved some way toward reducing the use of carbon-based fuels, putting into action already-announced plans, the IEA says.
But it warns governments that existing plans are unlikely to make a huge dent in carbon emissions, and only a thorough change in energy use will bring down oil demand.
The problem for the countries the IEA advises is that they are no longer primarily responsible for rising oil consumption.
While oil demand in the big, developed economies has stalled, consumption is increasing rapidly in countries outside the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Non-OECD oil demand has almost doubled over the last two decades as new industries develop in countries across Asia, Central and South America and Africa.
GRAPHIC: Emerging market thirst for crude oil – reut.rs/2MI9LiH
The research unit of China National Petroleum Corp predicts China’s oil demand will top out at around 13.8 million bpd as early as 2030.
Some analysts argue world oil demand could come down much faster if there were more efficiency gains in vehicles, greater market penetration by electric cars combined with lower economic growth and higher fuel prices.
Investment in solar power is rising rapidly and even Saudi Arabia, the de-facto leader of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, is supporting the industry, creating the world’s biggest solar power project.
Goldman Sachs has said oil demand could peak by 2024 under some circumstances, but slow adoption of new technology in less-developed economies could delay the change.
Consultancy Wood Mackenzie is somewhere in the middle of the range, expecting demand for transport to flatline from 2030 and overall use to peak in 2036. Its chief economist, Ed Rawle, argues a fall in oil demand is coming, whatever happens:
“The signs of peak oil demand really are there into the future. It’s a question of when, not if.”
GRAPHIC: Intensity level of primary energy – reut.rs/2CGFkcP
11 Comments on "Now near 100 million bpd, when will oil demand peak?"
Nostradamus on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 7:41 pm
Oil demand will never peak. But supply will.
Roger on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 8:20 pm
“Oil demand would rise less quickly if governments moved some way toward reducing the use of carbon-based fuels, putting into action already-announced plans, the IEA says.”
Yep, the gov’ment will solve peak oil…it’s called rationing.
Anonymous on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 11:06 pm
100 million bpd total liquids. Peak oilers said this was crazy talk back in the last decade. And look here we are.
makati1 on Thu, 20th Sep 2018 11:49 pm
Soon they will include cooking oils, rubbing alcohol, hard liquors and pine tree sap to the count to keep the number of barrels even or increasing. All it tells us is that the liquids burn. Not their NET energy content.
Anonymouse1 on Fri, 21st Sep 2018 5:43 am
Nice bit of deception there. We wont call resource depletion or anything remotely like that, well just rebrand it to, ‘peak demand’. Problem solved. Notice how the talking heads, have shifted the conversation to talk about ‘demand’, which can be any quantity it needs to be. So, when ‘supply’ cant keep with up with ‘demand’, guess who the talking heads will be blaming?
Hint: It wont be supplies fault. It will be..de-mand that is the problem(always). Even better now that the cancer cartel has dropped much of its overt hindrance and opposition to so-called ‘green cars’. It will be trivial to spin the blame for declining supply in the future, I mean ‘demand’ on ‘EV’s and the like. You can already see that starting to happen now in spin-o-sphere. EVs have had no virtually no effect on oil consumption, nor will they in the future even if their numbers continue to inch upwards for a while longer.
You can sock-puppet on the web till the lights go outs marmitard, it wont make one bit of difference how much you’ve preached the gospel of infinite oil, now and forever.
Davy on Fri, 21st Sep 2018 6:29 am
I remember a few years back when we wondered how 100MBL would be possible. The graphs said it would but we were scratching our heads. I do think we are nearing the limits of growth of primary energy it is just taking longer than we debated on a few years ago. Technology again came to the rescue recently with fracking and renewable growth. This subject is about a combination of peak supply and peak demand. The economy, resources, and technology will all conspire to lower and raise consumption. Which force of change will dominate?
Can the economy maintain its trajectory of growth with all that is wrong with it? The economy will be part of peak demand through increasing consumption from affluence. The economy will influence peak supply if that affluence does not hold and production abilities fall off along with consumption demand. In my opinion the economy is the strongest driver currently for change. The economy is holding but will it continue? Resources will be part of peak supply. There is still lots of hydrocarbons and renewable potential but how much can be afforded? There are limits to affluence and it takes affluence to increase energy supply. The fuel we are getting is lower quality and more costly. Technology with renewables, efficiency, and E&P with hydrocarbons will impact supply. Renewables still have many more areas to be introduced but renewables integration, where it is happening in earnest, is approaching thresholds of costs associated with issues of intermittency. BEV’s are coming on strong but it is debatable if they can be a whole system force of change or just a niche. Efficiency efforts are there but how much increase is debatable. Diminishing returns are a problem with efficiency. How much more incremental dollars can you throw at efficiency increases? Still, efficiency through improved technology is affecting supply.
The last wild card is behavior and policy with conservation and adapted lifestyles. How much can we change because we want to change? Will policy efforts at the top to clean up carbon achieve results? So far there has been little to cheer about because energy consumption growth is more than the policy effort reductions. Changing fuel types and from hydrocarbons to renewables has been dramatic in the last few years. How much further can that effort go? Behavior is all over the place with some people wanting more and some making an effort at less. Can we embrace more individual demand management and also embrace more intermittency in our activities with renewables? Will population level off and drop consumption? Are we near food and water potential? Population growth has been one of the biggest driver of energy consumption. Finally will cold and hot wars end the global economic system that allows so much consumption?
Every year we go forward is another closer to a bifurcation point in my opinion but that is what I thought 4 years ago here on this board. The data is hazy because there are so many emergent variables. Still, we are on a finite planet and we are clearly nearing a point where growth will get ever more difficult. At some point a systematic macro event might happen that dramatically changes everything. Maybe, but when is the question. Let’s say this can go on for another decade. A decade is an eternity when you are arguing these issues daily. A decade isn’t anything when you are talking about human history.
Sissyfuss on Fri, 21st Sep 2018 8:42 am
The amount of additional ICE vehicles that China puts on its roads each year guarantees that demand will continue to increase.
Jouvenal on Fri, 21st Sep 2018 9:34 am
It just keeps taking longer than we thought. Over and over and over again. Perhaps the problem is with our thinking?
Everyone in the world is crazy, Paco, but you and me. And lately I’ve been wondering about you.
ducksucker on Fri, 21st Sep 2018 10:48 pm
The system will only be allowed to collapse once the Jew or AI checkmate the cattle.
peakyeast on Sat, 22nd Sep 2018 11:41 am
Now they are including everything that can burn – and doing double counting with energy being used to produce other energy. And since we are using more and more energy to extract energy the numbers can just keep on climbing while “society” gets less and less.
Don Zenga on Sat, 22nd Sep 2018 8:34 pm
In the 2nd week of July, US hit a production of 11 million b/d and since then its hanging around 10.8 – 11.0. Does it mean that the production is struggling to go beyond 11 million b/d.
Week ending date followed by : and daily oil production.
2018-Jul 07/06:10,900;;;07/13:11,000;;;07/20:11,000;;;07/27:10,900
2018-Aug 08/03:10,800;;;08/10:10,900;;;08/17:11,000;;;08/24:11,000;;;08/31:11,000
2018-Sep 09/07:10,900;;;09/14:11,000