The 1972 book Limits to Growth, which predicted our civilisation would probably collapse some time this century, has been criticised as doomsday fantasy since it was published. Back in 2002, self-styled environmental expert Bjorn Lomborg consigned it to the “dustbin of history”.
It doesn’t belong there. Research from the University of Melbourne has found the book’s forecasts are accurate, 40 years on. If we continue to track in line with the book’s scenario, expect the early stages of global collapse to start appearing soon.
Limits to Growth was commissioned by a think tank called the Club of Rome. Researchers working out of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, including husband-and-wife team Donella and Dennis Meadows, built a computer model to track the world’s economy and environment. Called World3, this computer model was cutting edge.
The task was very ambitious. The team tracked industrialisation, population, food, use of resources, and pollution. They modelled data up to 1970, then developed a range of scenarios out to 2100, depending on whether humanity took serious action on environmental and resource issues. If that didn’t happen, the model predicted “overshoot and collapse” – in the economy, environment and population – before 2070. This was called the “business-as-usual” scenario.
The book’s central point, much criticised since, is that “the earth is finite” and the quest for unlimited growth in population, material goods etc would eventually lead to a crash.
So were they right? We decided to check in with those scenarios after 40 years. Dr Graham Turner gathered data from the UN (its department of economic and social affairs, Unesco, the food and agriculture organisation, and the UN statistics yearbook). He also checked in with the US national oceanic and atmospheric administration, the BP statistical review, and elsewhere. That data was plotted alongside the Limits to Growth scenarios.
The results show that the world is tracking pretty closely to the Limits to Growth “business-as-usual” scenario. The data doesn’t match up with other scenarios.
These graphs show real-world data (first from the MIT work, then from our research), plotted in a solid line. The dotted line shows the Limits to Growth “business-as-usual” scenario out to 2100. Up to 2010, the data is strikingly similar to the book’s forecasts.
As the MIT researchers explained in 1972, under the scenario, growing population and demands for material wealth would lead to more industrial output and pollution. The graphs show this is indeed happening. Resources are being used up at a rapid rate, pollution is rising, industrial output and food per capita is rising. The population is rising quickly.
So far, Limits to Growth checks out with reality. So what happens next?
According to the book, to feed the continued growth in industrial output there must be ever-increasing use of resources. But resources become more expensive to obtain as they are used up. As more and more capital goes towards resource extraction, industrial output per capita starts to fall – in the book, from about 2015.
As pollution mounts and industrial input into agriculture falls, food production per capita falls. Health and education services are cut back, and that combines to bring about a rise in the death rate from about 2020. Global population begins to fall from about 2030, by about half a billion people per decade. Living conditions fall to levels similar to the early 1900s.
It’s essentially resource constraints that bring about global collapse in the book. However, Limits to Growth does factor in the fallout from increasing pollution, including climate change. The book warned carbon dioxide emissions would have a “climatological effect” via “warming the atmosphere”.
As the graphs show, the University of Melbourne research has not found proof of collapse as of 2010 (although growth has already stalled in some areas). But in Limits to Growth those effects only start to bite around 2015-2030.
The first stages of decline may already have started. The Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08 and ongoing economic malaise may be a harbinger of the fallout from resource constraints. The pursuit of material wealth contributed to unsustainable levels of debt, with suddenly higher prices for food and oil contributing to defaults – and the GFC.
The issue of peak oil is critical. Many independent researchers conclude that “easy” conventional oil production has already peaked. Even the conservative International Energy Agency has warned about peak oil.
Peak oil could be the catalyst for global collapse. Some see new fossil fuel sources like shale oil, tar sands and coal seam gas as saviours, but the issue is how fast these resources can be extracted, for how long, and at what cost. If they soak up too much capital to extract the fallout would be widespread.
Our research does not indicate that collapse of the world economy, environment and population is a certainty. Nor do we claim the future will unfold exactly as the MIT researchers predicted back in 1972. Wars could break out; so could genuine global environmental leadership. Either could dramatically affect the trajectory.
But our findings should sound an alarm bell. It seems unlikely that the quest for ever-increasing growth can continue unchecked to 2100 without causing serious negative effects – and those effects might come sooner than we think.
It may be too late to convince the world’s politicians and wealthy elites to chart a different course. So to the rest of us, maybe it’s time to think about how we protect ourselves as we head into an uncertain future.
As Limits to Growth concluded in 1972:
If the present growth trends in world population, industrialisation, pollution, food production, and resource depletion continue unchanged, the limits to growth on this planet will be reached sometime within the next one hundred years. The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity.
So far, there’s little to indicate they got that wrong.
Davy on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 6:50 am
The beginning of change tend to be mild in nonlinear event. It is as the system approaches bifurcation that the rate of change accelerates and emboldens. We are close to the familiar tears of a Ponzi scheme of global debt and an equity bubble. The energy situation is undergoing compression with higher cost of production and a corresponding lower return from less production quantity and quality. The guts of the global trade, exchange, production, and distribution within BAU is facing a polarizing multipolar world with trade and financial wars. Then there are the hot and cold wars. Finally we have the usual slow motion ecological, climate, and pollution collapse. This is a time of the undulating plateau of predicaments converging and amplifying but not yet causing bifurcation. It should be a time for maximum preparations with attitudes and lifestyles changes. Yet, it will take a serious crisis to tap into the last great hope of a plan B of resource conservation and sustainability practices from altered lifestyles and attitudes. Technology and debt can no longer do the heavy lifting of mitigating the various problems that are currently surfacing as predicaments. These predicaments will require different thinking manly related to de-growth. We cannot manage de-growth but we can manage the fall in de-growth through lifeboat policies. The graphs showing what is ahead are too gentle and smooth in my mind. I feel we are going to see jagged and dramatic movements as the pace of descent quickens. We are on the cusp of the end of BAU and globalism. This will be true for all of us because all of our locals are delocalized and codependent with the global that will soon fracture and decay. It is time to prepare in any way possible. Preparation takes years but the beginning is the key. Start now.
noobtube on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 7:48 am
Americans need not worry about collapse.
All Americans need to do is find someone else to mass murder, steal their land or labor or energy, and all will be well.
It’s the American Way.
Norm on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 7:57 am
No limits to growth. We can blast away at the other countries with our aircraft carriers, and take their resources. So buy yourself a Dodge Charger, drive it to a drive-in, have a burger & fries.
JuanP on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 9:06 am
Born in 1969, I grew up in a Limits to Growth world. My father lost his job to the 70’s oil crises, and never recovered. I am convinced these guys basically nailed it, and everything I see and hear around me in the world today confirms we will stay on this trayectory. I don’t believe we can change course, it’s in our genes and instincts. We won’t change, we will adapt until we can’t, instead, and in the process we will destroy the biosphere.
Makati1 on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 9:24 am
JuanP, you have an accurate view of homo sapiens. We are Wile Coyote standing in air, afraid to look down.
shortonoil on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 10:02 am
The Limits to Growth was a rather remarkable achievement for its time. The primary weakness in the model, and the focus of the majority of the criticisms directed toward it, was in its complexity. It contained a number of variables that made a proof of its conclusion difficult, if not impossible.
To circumvent such difficulties, our Etp model, is reliant on one variable, Second Law statements, and the known physical characteristics of petroleum. The variable is the historic cumulative production of petroleum. Our assumption is that petroleum has been the primary driver of economic activity since it debut about 1900. Graph #25 at our site gives considerable support for this assumption:
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_012.htm
The Etp model is a determination of world petroleum reserves using a thermodynamic analysis. This methodology allows for the establishment of a margin of error, which is not available with other methods. The model assumes that it is possible to calculate the economic state of an economy by the amount of energy that petroleum is capable of supplying to it. This assumption appears to be well substantiated from a historical perspective.
The model indicates that petroleum’s ability to drive the economy will hit a thermodynamic barrier somewhere between 2030 and 2035 (this is within the limits of its margin of error). Extrapolating economic activity from energy availability indicates that by that point the average American will be living a life style comparable to what they had in 1915. Other factors, such as food production, and population growth are likely to follow this pattern. Our conclusion is that there is a 95.5% probability that the Limits to Growth predictions will be realized over the next two decades. This excludes what is often classified as Black Swan events.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
R1verat on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 10:27 am
I long for the time when ‘contributors” like noobtube end the anti bashing of the US (or any other country) & stick to the purpose of this site, which is to discuss PO issues. The endless diatribe of bashing countries is soooo old…..
Aaron on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 11:10 am
Shortonoil – does your analysis lead you to believe we will reach that 1915 lifestyle in a gradual decline or a precipitous drop?
I’m of the opinion it will be a slow grinding collapse and will take longer than 20 years to reach that 1915 lifestyle.
noobtube on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 11:30 am
The most efficient people on this planet live very stable, resilient, and non-harmful lives… pacific islanders, aborigines, most africans, indios, and central american peasants.
In the United States, there are the quakers. And, in Europe, there are the Roma.
Once you get to the so-called civilized and industrialized and 1st world and the West and those that imitate that way of life, that is when collapse becomes a big, fat, imminent catastrophe.
Basically, if you have a personal car, you are a worthless human being. Personal cars have been a curse to the Earth. In fact, it could be said that the more you have, the more worthless you become and the more dangerous to all life on this planet.
Harmony and balance are the very opposite of the American Way, where greed is good.
The reckoning is coming, and it is not going to be pretty for the 1st World (what a scumbag, arrogant, ignorant, petty, psychopathic title to give yourself).
JuanP on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 11:46 am
Noob, today you’ve exhausted my patience. According to you, my wife and I are worthless because we own a car. What a stupid, ignorant thing to say.
According to me, your comments on this board make you the most biased, irrational, ignorant, foolish, idiotic, illogical, mentally ill retard I have ever interacted with in my whole life. You are a disgrace of a human being.
I don’t know how you can live with yourself, it must not be easy.
Northwest Resident on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 11:58 am
JuanP — Attempting to reason with the noob is a waste of time. Whoever it is that is posting under that moniker, he/she/it is a vile putrid mass of hatred and self-loathing that is incapable of reason or logical discussion. I have trained myself to skip over any posts by the noob — and there is a list of other posters on this forum that I also do very well at completely skipping over. At the same time, I assign blame to the owners/administrators of this website for allowing complete jackasses like the noob to post here. To me, it is shameful that whoever owns/operates this website would allow the likes of noob and others to continuously post such off-topic and absurd crap.
Kenz300 on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 12:08 pm
And the world adds 80 million more people to feed, clothe, house and provide energy for every year. Endless population growth is not sustainable.
Food crisis, water crisis, declining fish stock crisis, energy crisis, Climate Change crisis, unemployment crisis, and an OVER POPULATION crisis.
The worlds poorest people are having the most children. They have not figured out the connection between family size and their poverty.
Endless population growth is not sustainable.
The world adds 80 million more people to feed, clothe, house and provide energy for every year..
Overpopulation facts – the problem no one will discuss: Alexandra Paul at TEDxTopanga – YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNxctzyNxC0
jjhman on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 12:14 pm
NWR:
I have to agree with you. I came to this site rather reluctantly when the Oil Drum died. They did a terrific job there of screening out the trolls. I like to read comments to articles because they often give some insight to the original posting. Trolls like noob and plant really degrade this site.
noobtube on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 12:18 pm
Typical American-mentality… it’s not my fault, everybody does it.
You can be angry all you want.
Having a personal car is destroying the planet. It is a rolling, garbage bin.
The average Ethiopian uses less than 1% of the resources of an American.
Why is that?
Personal cars… which come with roads, and malls, and gas stations, and drive-thru junk food, and highways, and bridges, and driveways, and lawns, and car washes, and so much more. It is a degenerate way to live.
Once one person has a car, everyone not only wants a car, they think it is the answer to all their problems.
Personal cars create assholes. You take a decent, reasonable, person, and put them behind the wheel, and they turn into a selfish asshole (like people on golf courses).
Americans and their sense of entitlement to personal cars… is helping to destroy Earth.
Northwest Resident on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 12:27 pm
jjhman said: “Trolls like noob and plant really degrade this site.”
Exactly. To be honest, over the last month or so I have stopped visiting this site as much, and I have almost completely stopped posting here. When I do come to this site, I just look for comments from rockman, shortonoil, Davy, JuanP and others who I like to read. I used to enjoy joining in on the discussion and posting my points of view and ideas, hoping for discussion. But posts by Plant, noob and a few others just gross me out, and I start to feel like there must be higher class places to spend my internet browsing time. Lately there has been a lot of what I consider obscene and obnoxious posters spewing their crap on this forum. The way this forum is headed, before long it will become a “I hate America and all Americans (and especially Obama)” forum, where lunatics from around the world gather to vent their stupidity and insanity. It is about half way there now, from my point of view.
Steve on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 12:29 pm
Yes there are a lot of trolls here noob is a jerk, to be ignored some people are so little that they have to do this to make themselves feel smug for a short time…when you extrapolate his arguments it shows his hypocrisy…
On another note I don’t know if I agree with short on the collapse scenario…I believe it will be much faster than he is saying….the complexity of our society will add to feedback loops and it will happen very fast..I can’t do the argument justice but Gail Tverberg has done an extensive analysis on Our Finite World…When you follow this rabbit down the hole you start to see that collapse means just what it says….there will be no one to collect mortgage money because the banks will be gone…..debts will be gone….etc…All that is trivial I am just hoping that there is just someone to control all the nuclear power stations…
noobtube on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 12:49 pm
That represents the mentality I observed in the 1980s when those idiots voted for Reagan and rejected the conservation (ironic) agenda after the 1970s oil shocks. No US President has had the courage to address energy conservation, since.
Americans don’t want to face facts, if it means they have to give up something.
Americans just want it their way and they don’t want anyone to tell them that they can’t have their personal cars and Whoppers and McMansions and superhighways and Hollywood blockbusters (w/ sports/celebrity gossip) and GINORMOUS killing machine (US military) and their illusion (delusion?) of choice.
After 2008, Americans should have gotten off their collective fat asses and shut the government down until the banking mess was fixed. Did they do that? Nope.
Instead, they tried to blame poor, black women who tried to get a home loan, or Mexicans, or immigrants, or Arabs, or anyone, as long as it wasn’t themselves or the Wall Street bankers.
In fact, Americans rewarded Wall Street for the greatest financial collapse in human history, with trillions upon trillions in aid.
I admit, Americans disgust me. And, when you behave in a disgusting manner, you get disgusting results.
That is what is happening, but the worst is yet to come.
America is doomed because of Americans.
Plantagenet on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 12:59 pm
Good to hear that the troll Northwest Resident is reducing his activities here. Hopefully we will be able to spend more time on the topics, and less time dealing with his endless whining about other posters
Now to the topic: it’s fascinating to see how closely the world has tracked the 1970 LIMITS TO GROWTH predictions. We’re just reaching the point at which the prediction calls for downturns in many things —– hold on tight, it’s gonna get bumpy soon.
Bernd1964 on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 1:01 pm
I don’t think the ‘Limits to Growth’ predictions will play out because we have with the Fukushima meltdown an extinction level event at least for the Northern hemisphere which will contaminate human habitats and food sources on a large scale. We all incorporate highly toxic radioactive nuclei in very small amounts every day since the 3/11 event. This endless accumulation and intake of hidden poison in our food will result in a very sick general population in the Northern hemisphere and a profound global die off latest around the year 2030. Food prices will soon start to get very expensive because of the death of the Pacific Ocean and other habitats of food production. The meltdowns of Fukushima and Chernobyl won’t be the last severe accidents of nuclear power stations, I actually expect more to happen in the near future. Homo faber is polluting its world from which he is mentally parted by design because of the industrial age.
Plantagenet on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 1:23 pm
Most scientists believe the global impact of the Fukushima meltdown is limited. The radioactivity levels are not all that high outside of the immediate vicinity of the reactor.
IMHO Limits to growth from resource peaks in oil production and other industrial materials is a far more serious threat to the economy and human society.
JuanP on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 1:47 pm
NWR, your absence was noticed. I hope you are enjoying your gardening. This is the first time I addressed Noob. I just wanted to be on the record. I will completely ignore him from now on.
I miss TOD, too. There were so many good comments there, I almost never posted anything there because I spent all my time reading them.
This is the only forum I visit on the internet, and I started posting here because I felt there was a need for reasonable, moderate perspectives to keep the community together. This is the first time in my life I have actively joined an online community and posted comments.
I’ve been a comment reader, not a comment poster, all my life.
MKohnen on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 3:05 pm
I admit I spend a fair amount of time bashing Canada and the US. That’s mostly because I think that, internally, both countries are pretty good places to live. But our foreign affairs leave a lot to be desired. We definitely need a system of world justice, and Canada and the US should be leaders in this drive. Instead, we peddle double standards that make me sick.
But bashing either country because of our conspicuous consumption while pretending that some other country is the golden child is worse than ridiculous. We didn’t invent war, corruption, poverty or waste. These things existed long before our countries did. I don’t look forward to the destruction of my country or our neighbour. Instead, I look forward to events that may push us all, as a globe, to find a more equitable and just system. And now you can paint me as a dreamer, because I truly believe that day will come. The forces that shape evolution shape everything. I believe those forces could be summed up in the saying “Eventually, the best system always wins.”
MKohnen on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 3:10 pm
BTW, NWR,
I have found your input to be very helpful and constructive, even when I’ve disagreed with it. I think Davey is absolutely right: you have to be brave in the face of the Trolls.
noobtube on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 3:46 pm
To me, this site boils down to 2 types…
those who come here looking for info that motivates them to constructive action, and …
those who come here to find a comforting narrative that soothes their consciences to continue business-as-usual.
Without a doubt, this website is filled with cornucopians (e.g. peak oil exists but I’ll always keep my personal car).
J-Gav on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 4:06 pm
JuanP, Short, Makati, Aaron –
Yep. They got a lot right back in the early 70s. As for their conclusion that: ” The most prob
J-Gav on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 4:15 pm
JuanP, Short, Makati, Aaron –
Yep. They got a lot right back in the early 70s. As for their conclusion that: “The most probable result will be a rather sudden and uncontrollable decline in both population and industrial capacity,” for me the question remains open and Aaron does well to bring it up (re: Short’s post).
“Uncontrollable?” Quite likely. Sudden? Depends on your definition of ‘sudden.’
The Archdruid sees it dragging out over 2 or 3 centuries. Not impossible, but my own view is different. What I see is punctually rapid declines in certain regions, then stagnation, then another hit taking it down again at a faster pace, maybe encompassing other regions … Who can accurately predict contagion, the number of war victims etc?
When I say ‘it,’ I’m referring more to population decline than industrial output, which I believe will decline faster than population.
Plantagenet on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 4:26 pm
We’ve already taken the first step down with the global slowdown that started in 2008 after oil prices tripled over the preceeding decade. The next step down will be similar—-higher oil prices lead to another economic crash and global slowdown. But things are likely to get much much worse once global production actually starts to shrink.
Perk Earl on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 5:21 pm
“But things are likely to get much much worse once global production actually starts to shrink.”
I agree Plant. There seems to be no end of razzle dazzle plays the Fed and other government’s monetary systems can muster up with a steady flow of oil, even if it is more expensive than in previous decades. Ah, but start a steady decline and that’s when things really pressure up and lead to hot spots of disaster. And I don’t just mean in the developing countries, but in developed one’s as well. These next 5-10 years should make for a very interesting time period to be alive or running for your life.
Speaking of which I had to drive down to the SF bay area today. That was some of the craziest driving I’ve ever done. Had to slam on the brakes twice to avoid rear ending cars in front. I mean like from 70 to zero in the minimum amount a vehicle with good brakes can stop. It was a terrible combination of people really pissed off about being back to work after the holiday and passive people still on vacation driving with their heads somewhere else. One guy was about to lose it and I got his attention and waved like ‘cool down man – it’s ok’, and it seemed to work as he slowed down and eased up. I’ve never seen so many lane changes in my life on hwy 880 in the East Bay. Good God people, what’s wrong with the lane you’re in?! I wondered if it was reflective of people being stressed out about finances.
shortonoil on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 5:41 pm
“Shortonoil – does your analysis lead you to believe we will reach that 1915 lifestyle in a gradual decline or a precipitous drop?
I’m of the opinion it will be a slow grinding collapse and will take longer than 20 years to reach that 1915 lifestyle. ”
The answer to that question can not be found in the model. It is beyond its scope. What the model predicts is that by the 2030-2035 window, petroleum will no longer be the world’s primary liquid fuel energy provider. Without the benefit of petroleum to power the world’s transportation machinery global trade will come to its conclusion in any form that we now recognize.
On the other hand, North America is a vastly rich culture. Great quantities of the wealth produced during the oil age was poured into infrastructure. Our decline rate will depend on how efficiently we can convert that wealth into usable goods, and services during our transition into a non oil based economy. Unfortunately, I don’t think anyone can answer that question. We are truly headed into totally uncharted waters.
http://www.thehillsgroup.org/
Plantagenet on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 5:47 pm
Great Post, Perk Earl.
I agree with you that the next 5-10 years should be very interesting. I wish the US had some overall energy plan for the future, just like Russia and China with their joint pipeline system and energy partnership, but hopefully we can muddle through without planning.
I used to live in the East Bay, Perk Earl. If its any comfort to you, traffic there has always been terrible at times.
Welch on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 6:02 pm
The American-bashing trolls here had better be living life better than Jesus Christ given their incessant criticism of others. Most likely the Noob types are just unhappy and frustrated with their own lives, and quite likely suffer from serious depression. Apart from getting on some SSRIs, they might ask themselves: Am I part of the problem, or part of the solution?
.
peakyeast on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 6:26 pm
I read somewhere: Collapse is here – its just unevenly distributed. I feel that is a very apt description.
My belief is that collapse also has a downsloping curve – albeit probably very steep in places. Its not entirely a “step-function”, but a number of small “local” step-functions with slopes and waves between. – So I am still inclined somewhat to the stair-case model – albeit the steps are very differing in size and distribution.
Everyday most people in the somewhat untainted countries lives good semihappy lives. – Even though many around them: countries and small cultures alike are experiencing collapse, genocide and extermination at an increasing rate.
I suppose the people in “intact” countries defines collapse as collapse only when they experience it themselves. Until then its minor problems that are self-inflicted and really doesnt harm “me” in a way “I” can perceive. i.e. its because the africans get too many children, the arabs are too violent and religious, the chinese because they are too many and so on and so forth.
– But “I” still have my food, my cars, my house, my job – so it cant be really that bad out there – because then the politicians would do something.
Graeme on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 6:47 pm
This is a simulation about BAU. It is a warning that if we don’t change course then there will be collapse.
“Our research does not indicate that collapse of the world economy, environment and population is a certainty.”
Will the world heed the warning?
Makati1 on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 8:09 pm
Welsh, perhaps they re comfortable with their positions/locations and are making the point as to why the world is in decline today? If you study history, it is the West that has pillaged and plundered the rest of the world for centuries, using other countries to fight their war of greed and conquest.
I agree with Peakyeast that we are in the decline. Have been for decades. And, it is picking up speed exponentially. Soon it will be noticeable to even the most brainwashed Westerner. It is pure arrogance, based on nothing, to think that one country is ‘exceptional’ and will ride out the collapse in relative comfort. Those will be the ones to suffer most.
This site has slowly moved from repetitive articles on oil and into more varied articles on lifestyle and economy. Hense, the comments supporting personal attitude toward their country or others. Everyone has an opinion. But the future will tell who was most correct.
clueless on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 9:18 pm
I really really love noobtube.
Holds no barred is his anthem.
It’s either you love him or hate him.
Apparently, majority of peeps who
read this site is delusional americans
who can not accept the fact that their
government,plus it’s millions of sheeple are the very reason the earth
is on the verge of ultimate collapse very very soon..As i said before, had it not for this wasteful, exploitative, invasive, non God fearing nation, the earth would have been a better place.
Literally, THE DEVIL WALKS AMONG US. Why does GOD let SATAN roam free?
ghung on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 9:59 pm
Yeah’ noob & clueless. You just haven’t come to terms with your membership in the most fucked up species the world has ever known. I suggest you get in touch with your own fuckedupedness rather than project it on Americans who, by accident of fate, happen to be better at it than any group in history. Assuming you could push a button and rid the planet of “Americans” (pretty sure you have the image of a white, male, slightly over-weight baby boomer of European descent), do you really think those of your own kind wouldn’t quickly fill the void of wrath, greed, sloth, pride, lust, envy, and gluttony?
You’re nothing but fleas on the dog of history.
steve on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 10:23 pm
Well said Ghung….there is no one with clean hands on this site…go back 2 or 3 hundred years our ancestors were slaves or slave holders…I shouldn’t be so hard on Noob I have been out in civilization and been pretty disgusted with my peeps as well
howmuchforyourwings on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 10:47 pm
I remember the early nineties. I was a in my early twenties and I had the world by the tail. It seemed like anything was possible and I was doing well
for myself. I remember gas hitting $1.78/gallon in 2002 and I thought the world was ending. I left farming in 2006 when fuel hit $4.00/gallon and houses were being planted all over the farms I once rented. Since 2006, my life has gotten harder and my money shorter but I didn’t understand why until about five months ago when I accidentally stumbled onto Richard Heinberg and Chris Martenson. Suddenly, the last eight years of my life came into view and my eyes were opened. Since then, I have been on a feeding frenzy binging on information. I don’t agree with everything posted here, but I especially respect NWR, Davy, JaunP, rockman, and shortonoil. For years I’ve had this gut feeling something wasn’t right and bad things were coming, but I didn’t know what until recently. I fear for my 11 year old daughter’s future after learning what I have learned. I now fear for the whole world. I am a cop, and I have slowly watched the world degenerate around me for the last eight years. As bad as it is, I know the worst is yet to come. I see a future so horrible and violent I am looking for a way out of law enforcement becuase I don’t want to have to shoot people for trying to feed their families when TSHTF. I’m prepping, but I feel like it may be in vain. I see first hand every day how people act when they feel they have nothing left to lose. Just the other day my partner had a person attack him and try to take his weapon. He wanted suicide by cop, but didn’t get it because our cooler heads prevailed. This is all happening while things are relatively good. Having seen the underbelly of society for the last 8 years, all I can say to you is be ready to fight to the death when the collapse comes, because people will unleash an evil like you have never seen in your life. I see what this entitled, I want everthing for doing nothing society is capable of on a daily basis in small numbers. I tremble when I think of what they will do in mass numbers, and they will when things get really tough. They will. Furthermore, if America hadn’t been the gluttonous, asshole society that ruined the world, another society would have. That’s just the nature of people; consume with recklesss abandon until it’s gone. If not America, then China, UK, France, Russia- wait, they do the same as America; burn through all their resources as fast as possible in the name of material gain. So for those of you who bash America, bash the rest of the world as well. The people of America have only done what the people of any country on the globe would have done had they had the same abundant resources we had. It’s just human nature. The time for action passed in 1975. The Earth is now at 140% of carrying capacity (not to include pollution or climate change). We are all screwed at this point, all we can do is hang on for the hellacious ride to the end. Anything we do now is much too little extremely too late. I have read and seen eneough to know anything we do now is just to make us feel good that we’re doing something. No one can be prepared for what coming because no one will have ever seen anything like what is coming. This is just peak oil, not to mention the real threat of WW III, failing nuclear power plants and all of the pollution we’re making. There is no good end. I watched all of the Mad Max movies growing up, and I fear they are mild compared to what is coming.
Richard Ralph Roehl on Tue, 2nd Sep 2014 11:07 pm
1. Whom the gods would destroy, they first make mad.
2. Where there is no insight, the people perish.
clueless on Wed, 3rd Sep 2014 12:21 am
Yeah right. This site is a mutual affection party for delusional americans.
Hooooooray!!!! Nope.
Bwahahahahahahahahaha
Stephen on Wed, 3rd Sep 2014 12:41 am
I think that we need to have a serious summit on how we plan to mitigate this, with the public’s input.
Davy on Wed, 3rd Sep 2014 7:34 am
I wanted to revisit the collapse thoughts expressed here yesterday. Collapse is about bifurcation, dysfunction, irrational abandonment, randomness, and imploding synthesis (reboot). These traits allow prediction little opportunity. I tend to agree with JGav:
“What I see is punctually rapid declines in certain regions, then stagnation, then another hit taking it down again at a faster pace, maybe encompassing other regions … Who can accurately predict contagion”
It could spread like a virus after the initial global event that will most likely be the beginning. The first event will destroy the global connections of our vast trade/exchange system, global production, and global distribution. The reboot could settle into regional arrangements with some regions better positioned than others. The drop could be stair-step with stagnation and contraction of complexity, resource production, and population carrying capacity. We will see both mental and physical infrastructure abandonment for economic, productive, and human choice reasons. Naturally some infrastructure will be unaffordable and impossible to make with loss of complexity. Food and energy supplies may regionalize leaving the regional (ness) of collapse in play. Places like Asia will most likely see famine from extreme population overshoot. Reboot will be a product of carrying capacity breaches and organizational abilities of regional populations. The regions that are obviously in serious predicaments of food, water, and energy will fail quickly. Areas that have unstable population mixes could destroy what resilience they have to collapse in unrest and civil war. It is possible in the initial end to globalism a great war could destroy regions with decent resources for resiliency to collapse. The “all” important degree and duration of the descent phases are unpredictable and varied by region. A region with resilience that experiences too much of either may destroy advantageous resources that could allow survival. The end of globalism could be the 1st step with regional variations rebooting later. Finally many regional resulting social and economic arrangements will go local as the levels of complexity and mental/physical infrastructure suffer entropic decay. Some regions just do not have the resources to maintain regions arrangements. Some regions without energy intensity and food productive capacity will just not be able to support significant populations and complexity. These are plain to see and consist of dry regions, very cold regions, and ecologically destroyed regions as an example. We can compare the collapse of modern man most effectively to the collapse of the financial system with all its complex connections of markets, trade/exchange structures, command/control, and confidence/liquidity. We can then add in those human traits of war, conquest, and subjugation of populations into the mix. So finally we can accurately discuss the symptoms and side effects of collapse but have little ability at the where, when, and how that might paint the picture of the historic process. System bifurcation involves chaos, randomness, and irrationality which equates collapse predictions to games of chance and events such as the arrangement of failing matches. If you had enough computing power you could figure out the self-organization of the descent from complexity.
JuanP on Wed, 3rd Sep 2014 8:09 am
Wellcome, Howmuch! Good to have JGav back, too. I’m with JGav and Davy on the idea of unpredictable steps down with stagnation periods, decreasing complexities, and increasing localization.
It is impossible for any of us to know how this will play out in detail, but some major trends are clear to understand. Places like Miami, LA, NYC, Phoenix, or Las Vegas will have to contract a lot more than places like St. Louis, Raleigh, or Canada. Access to food, water, and energy will determine where people will be better off. The farther away from modern civilization one is, the less hard the fall will be there.
JuanP on Wed, 3rd Sep 2014 8:18 am
MK, I also criticize the USA when criticism is due. I am generous with my criticism across the board. I try to avoid criticizing my own country, Uruguay, too much, because I know I am biased against it and I don’t want to be dense, but I would defend any country from an unfair attack, even my own.
ghung on Wed, 3rd Sep 2014 9:07 am
@howmuchforyourwings- Just a suggestion: Find a smaller town where there’s still some respect for law enforcement. Here in Western NC it works both ways; things haven’t gotten so bad that the cops have become cynical, and we know where the cops live, so to speak. In our county, there’s only one each primary, middle, and high school so if the cops have kids, they go to school with your kids. Just about everyone knows everybody else. In short, there’s still a strong sense of community; requirement #1 for resiliency.
FarQ3 on Wed, 3rd Sep 2014 10:41 am
I’m an Australian and I like US citizens, we are very similar in lots of ways. I do however not like The US and Australia etc meddling in many other nations backyards. Our governments don’t do the peoples bidding in fact they openly bend the will of the people and justify this with lies. I’ll admit it, we are weak, weakened by the cosy lives we have lived somewhat on the back of cheap oil. To weak to go against the tide of people who just want life to remain the same. The change when it comes, will be quick in Australia I believe.
FarQ3 on Wed, 3rd Sep 2014 10:42 am
Speak up, get noisy, get active, oppose the mainstream government …. and get labelled a terrorist!
Most good people aren’t hurting enough yet to change.
howmuchforyourwings on Wed, 3rd Sep 2014 12:31 pm
Actually, ghung, I live in a rural area in Eastern NC and I commute to the city for my job. I live on a family farm with resources for fresh water and growing food. My concern is the subdivisions that surround me full of people from the city and the people that will leave the city in search of resources. And like I said, after seeing the underbelly of life for eight years, it seems there is a limitless depth to which people will sink. After seeing how small, temporary, emergencies that restrict resources affect people and the extreme measures it drives them to, I can’t imagine what a permanent reduction in resource availability would do to them. I can promise anyone that reads here, there will be no peaceful end to this way of existence. We missed that opportunity 40 years ago. As others here have commented, there is really no way to predict how it will end and how life will be after the decline. All that can be said with confidence is that it will be bad. Very bad.
howmuchforyourwings on Wed, 3rd Sep 2014 12:37 pm
And this respect you speak of for law enforcement, it is almost non-existent. The older generations still have that respect for us. The younger generations, they are horrible whether in the city or out in the rural areas. Unfortunately, some of the actions of officers in the past few years is the cause of that disrespect. Not all of us have earned that disrespect, but I understand why we get it. People don’t see a person, they see a uniform and an agency. Not all officers respect the public as they should, but that is a small minority. Most guys I know are pretty decent. But one bad interaction with the public by one bad officer, and all of us have to pay for it because people see the uniform. I try to understand this every time I receive disrespect.
Northwest Resident on Wed, 3rd Sep 2014 1:25 pm
howmuch — We hear and read so much about the “militarization” of the police forces in America. In fact, it is obvious that police forces — though obviously not all — are gearing up in a militaristic way, and getting a lot of equipment from the Iraq/Afghanistan armed forces. It seems clear to me that at least one of the reasons for the increased militarism in police forces is to prepare for the inevitable civil disorder (riot, looting, mayhem) that will come with global economic collapse. I personally don’t believe in a long slow stepdown collapse — there is a critical point at which the system cannot maintain itself, and it will implode rapidly. That time is near and rapidly approaching, if you ask me. As a police officer, you must have some insight on the what role(s) the police forces will play in this scenario. Would you care to offer your thoughts on the subject?