Low Oil Prices Will Lead To Shortages — In 2035

52 Comments on "Low Oil Prices Will Lead To Shortages — In 2035"

makati1 on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 6:39 am 



Forbes is selling horse shit again. By 2035, oil will be the least of our problems, IF we still exist.

rockman on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 6:42 am 



An easy prediction IMHO since we already have a shortage of oil today: there are hundreds of millions in the world that cannot afford oil (and its refined products) at the current price. No different then when oil was selling for $100/bbl except there were more people that couldn’t afford the price then. So the same difference: a shortage of affordable oil be it priced at $100/bbl or $35/bbl.

Kinda like the old joke about the difference between a depression and a recession: recession: your neighbor loses his job; depression: you lose your job. Oil abundance: you can afford the price even if it’s $100/bbl). Oil shortage: you can’t afford oil even if it’s $35/bbl.

Davy on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 7:00 am 



2035?? That is a healthy enough cushion for Forbes to preach because it will stimulate the corrupt market forces to push for more market efforts at energy development while still having the dreaded peak oil issue far off into the future. IOW market forces will solve this problem and before there is a problem. Forbes is a mouth piece of corruption. You can take anything they say and reverse it to find the truth. That is how bad mainstream media has become in the business world in many cases.

geopressure on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 8:00 am 



“By 2035”???

We are out of oil now!!! Port of Houston has only imported 4 Million BBLs in the last week – Note: They usually import 4+ Million BBLs PER DAY!!!

***IMPORTANT***
Makes sure that the news that you are basing your investment decisions off of is the REAL news… See link below (this stuff really happens, it is all around you, even on this very webpage)…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-bYAQ-ZZtEU

shortonoil on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 8:53 am 



“But the analysts at Wood Mackenzie warn in a study out today that with companies having slashed their exploration budgets by more than half to $40 billion, they may run the risk of not finding enough new oil supplies.

For the last 6 years the world has brought enough new oil online to replace 1 barrel for every 8 that it extracted. Much of that was during an era when oil was approaching $100. Wood Mackenzie is just figuring out that there could be a problem?? Sounds a little “a day late and a dollar short”!

Between 1960 and 2005 world production grew rapidly; averaging 5.46% per year. The world’s economy easily absorbed it; there was almost no excess inventory build. Since then with production growth averaging 0.43% per year the world is supposedly awash in oil. There is a blatant contradiction here, but Wood Mackenzie is not seeing it? How much analyzing are these analysts doing?

The world’s oil industry has run into a problem. Its cost of production has been going up for the last 150 years, and the price that the economy can afford to pay for it has been going down. Those two met somewhere about 2012. Less and less of the world’s production is within reach of the world’s economy. More and more of its production is going into a storage tank, and not enough of it into a gas tank. The effect of extracting the best of the world’s reserve for the last 150 years is now beginning to be felt. The inevitable outcome of depletion is beginning to take its toll.

Depletion is a concept that Wood Mackenzie, or any other analyst does not want to address. Even though it is as sure to occur as the sun will rise tomorrow, recognizing it as a possible explanation to the contractions now being witnessed, is out of the question. That would mean an admittance that the day will come when no one will need Wood Mackenzie’ services; or Forbes, or EXXON. That will be completely ignored, and the can will be kicked a little further down the road. Hypothetical, contradictive, nonsensical explanations will be contrived to explain what is happening.

The problem is that their can will have met a concrete wall before 2035!

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

penury on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 9:09 am 



Depletion is a concept that no one wants to contemplate. “Growrh” even the word brings a smile to the face, “Depletion” sounds like it means “less” and causes sorrow and a feeling of loss in the mind. humans like growth and fear depletion.

dave thompson on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 10:44 am 



We have all been trained to believe in the invisible (god?) hand of the free market to drive endless growth. Infinite growth on a finite planet being impossible, perhaps God will save us.

peakyeast on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 2:00 pm 



The reason why the oil companies are not doing all that exploration IMHO is to a large extent because there is nothing left to find that makes a profit compared to the expenses.

shortonoil on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 3:59 pm 



“The reason why the oil companies are not doing all that exploration IMHO is to a large extent because there is nothing left to find that makes a profit compared to the expenses.”

And, it looks like the market agrees!

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-04-28/focused-wrong-end-oil

If you look at the futures market:

http://futures.tradingcharts.com/marketquotes/CL.html

the latter year contracts are going down. It is only the front contracts that are seeing price increases. We see maximum affordable oil in the mid $50s next year, and it looks like Mr. Market agrees with us.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

geopressure on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 4:05 pm 



Peakyeast; I don’t know about that, sounds like you’ve been listening to shortonoil too long & his thesis is simply incorrect.

I don’t think that people from outside the industry understand how profitable oil wells are…

Think about these Margins:

Deepwater:
Wells cost $0.00 (Federal Government assumes 100% of the cost)
Wells make 10,000 to 100,000 BOPD (PER WELL)
@ $100/BBL — $1 to $10 Million per DAY
@ $50/BBL — $0.5 to $5 Million per Day
@ $25/BBL — $0.25 to $2.5 Million per Day

On Land (Conventional):
Wells Cost $2 to $4 Million
Wells Make about 400 BOPD (some more, some less)
@ $100/BBL — $40,000 per Day (Payout in 100 Days)
@ $50/BBL — $20,000 per Day (Payout in 200 Days)
@ $25/BBL — $10,000 per Day (Payout in 400 Days)

On Land (Unconventional):
Wells Cost $5 to $8 Million
Wells Make about 400 BOPD (Probably a little low for the Average IP Rates)
@ $100/BBL — $40,000 per Day (Payout in 200 Days)
@ $50/BBL — $20,000 per Day (Payout in 400 Days)
@ $25/BBL — $10,000 per Day (Payout in 800 Days) ***Due to decline curve, this scenario would never reach payout

geopressure on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 4:08 pm 



NOTE: in Deepwater, the Operator has to pay drilling cost, but the Federal Government allows them to subtract 100% of all drilling/development expenses from their from their tax liabilities)… This was put into effect by Bill Clinton to incentivize drilling in the late 1990’s so that we could maintain an excess supply of crude oil & keep prices low…

peakyeast on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 4:25 pm 



Hi geo..

Thanks for your comment and a lot of numbers.

I will add in a little:
http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/0210/OIL_EXPC0210.gif

Exploration costs up from – yes a very low number to another very low number… (1.0$ to about 2.8$) But still up about 250-300%.

So how much did this significant rise in Exploration cost discover?

http://www.energyvanguard.com/blog-building-science-HERS-BPI/bid/36351/Declining-Oil-Discoveries-The-Truth-Behind-Peak-Oil

Ooops.. Not very much. So you are right that its not the cost of finding it thats the problem – but more that they are not finding anything significant. Which is just as bad.

So how come the oil price is so high if finding it doesnt cost anything?

https://www.quora.com/If-the-price-of-oil-is-100-a-barrel-how-is-the-money-distributed

So it seems a large part is what I personally all call profits: Profits for the government, for the leaches in the banking world and for the company itself.

Actual production and finding it amounts to about 12$/barrel.

So the only problem as I see it right now is that they are not finding anything worthwhile and thus scaled down the exploration.

Thanks again geo for making me think. Youre a darling 🙂

peakyeast on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 4:33 pm 



Come to think of it: Since the government pays for the hole in the ground on land and tax exemption for those in the water – then I suppose its reasonable to at least partly call the government taxation for: Drilling costs 😉

peakyeast on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 4:34 pm 



I hate that winking smilie here on this part of the site – it really doesnt wink as much as I would like it to. 😉

geopressure on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 5:03 pm 



Wait, the government doesn’t pay of the ones on land… If there is a federal program that, I NEED TO KNOW ABOUT IT, haha…

Sadly, you’ve got have like Billions before you can get into the deepwater game & take advantage of those tax deals…

If only onshore wells would make oil that fast…

geopressure on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 5:07 pm 



I don’t know if I agree with this website:

https://www.quora.com/If-the-price-of-oil-is-100-a-barrel-how-is-the-money-distributed

I know that in South MS, the tax is only 6%.

& only 3% if you turn one of your old wells into a water injector & call it a “waterflood” – even if it isn’t in communication with your producers (that’s funny to me)…

Usually, after taxes & royalties to the mineral owner you get to keep about 75% of the oil in South Mississippi…

peakyeast on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 5:08 pm 



What short is talking about is something entirely different than only cost. Which the economy doesnt necessarily reflect adequately.

The unconventional resources are a problem since they are significantly more expensive, energyhungry and problematic towards the ecology than the industry average.

In this short is correct: The new reserves are losing their ability to power the society.

To which degree? Well, short has made a good job IMO towards calculating that.

Boat on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 5:45 pm 



peakyeast,
Heavy oil has less commercial value than condensate. Both have less value than the sweet spot of oil of around 38 api. There are claims of misrepresentation in production and reserves because the condensate in much of the newer source, (fracking) produces 15-20 percent condensate.
I call it splitting hairs because not only does condensate have more value but works well with heavy oil to keep refineries efficient.

Pops on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 6:12 pm 



Even 20 years ago it didn’t take 20 years for lack of investment to cause a supply shortfall. Oil was $20 in ’02 – $60 by ’06 and $150 in ’08

And that was before the crazy decline rates of LTO.

Pops on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 6:27 pm 



The other strange thing is they seem to say there will be no impact until there is 4.5mbo/d shortfall — in 2035

History shows there is a big problem when there is any problem meeting demand… way before 4-5mb/d

onlooker on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 6:39 pm 



I think the most salient economic interaction with the reality of peak oil since 2008 has been demand destruction. This has resulted also from other factors dragging down consumers and their purchasing power. The fact is that consumers are less and less able to afford to pay for gas/oil.

Davy on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 8:03 pm 



Demand is stagnated and deflation dominates the economic weather. Oil demand growth is not what it should be. Global corporate businesses are at the limits of reasonable valuations. Investments could turn off like a light. How is rising oil prices going to sustain themselves in that situation? They won’t.

We are in that surreal zone of the inconclusive. Nobody really knows where we are at and where we are going with any certainty. In this type of environment previous history is an incomplete guide. Normal price discovery is not functioning properly. We are definitely close to an event of some sort. Good or bad we will break from this funk period.

geopressure on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 8:41 pm 



Currently, Gasoline is being shipped to Houston from China… That’s Odd…

Lots of Odd things are going on…

Gasoline prices going up due to refinery shut downs… Why are so many refineries shutting down at the same time & catching on fire & exploding, etc, etc…

Are refineries really having accidents??? Or are they out of crude oil to process & someone is trying to hide the fact??? Why is only 1/5th as much oil entering Houston’s Port as it usually receives???

Are the SPR & Commercial Storage Tanks really full? if so, why did they wait until 2 years after the price peaked to top off???

apneaman on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 9:10 pm 



Boat, good thing you saving so much on that “cheap gas” (tell yourself) because it looks like you will be spending a lot more on tires. Houston already had fucked roads (the mayor ran on a fix the pot holes platform and won) and now this…………………………….

LAST WEEK’S FLOODING DID A NUMBER ON HOUSTON-AREA ROADS

http://abc13.com/weather/last-weeks-flooding-did-a-number-on-houston-area-roads/1312312/

Hydrologic cycle – For every temperature increase of 1C the atmosphere holds another 7% moisture, which adds to warming btw. 1C increase since 1880. 2C is in the pipe. Unstoppable feedback’s already underway. AGW nonlinear. We don’t need no stinking peak oil to end happy motoring. Not only will this shit keep happening, it’s going to get worse – much worse. It will continue to hammer the shit out of industrial civilization. That infrastructure is the back bone and it’s being broken. Already started and it will be done well before 2035. Any talk of 2035 resembling anything we have today is a childish fantasy.

We’ve Only Just Begun

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=__VQX2Xn7tI

Boat on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 9:33 pm 



ape,

” Not only will this shit keep happening, it’s going to get worse – much worse. It will continue to hammer the shit out of industrial civilization.”

I have never disputed the eventual impacts of climate change as I have told you many times. Why you don’t comprehend that is a mystery.

When the coast isn’t rebuilt after a storm, that will be a sign. When world populations start to drop because of lack of food. That will be a sign. Sorry if potholes

Boat on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 9:38 pm 



and flood damage to a few roads dosen’t do it for me. 10 billion in estimated damage reported so far. I would bet it’s all rebuilt within two years.

GregT on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 9:45 pm 



“When the coast isn’t rebuilt after a storm, that will be a sign.”

“NEW ORLEANS — Ten years ago the floodwaters of Hurricane Katrina poured relentlessly into the Lower Ninth Ward. It was, at the time, a New Orleans neighborhood of about 14,000 people. Now fewer than 3,000 people live there — a decade after most of the homes were simply washed away. A visit there last week presented a post-apocalyptic landscape of neglect: a street grid with a house here and there, interspersed with empty lots.

All this, 10 years after Aug. 29, 2005, when the deluge broke through the levees and wrecked everything in its path.”

http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/hurricane-katrina-10-yrs-new-orleans-struggles-article-1.2334479

Boat on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 9:48 pm 



houston flood history

http://www.chron.com/news/houston-weather/article/How-the-recent-floods-compare-to-Houston-s-other-6290238.php

As you can see flooding is not new.

Boat on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 9:53 pm 



gregt,

Why they rebuilt at all is a mystery. With every event insurance will rise. At some point the money won’t be there. That will be a sign.

apneaman on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 10:12 pm 



Pretty lame boat, comparing an everyday rain fall to tropical storms and hurricanes is the height of deceit and desperation. Like you and all the rest of the texass retards (90%?) chron is a lying and denying oil industry boot licking brown noser. Y’all can only pretend for so long. Kinda entertaining though.

“Rainfalls were similar between the recent rainstorms and Hurricane Ike, although the latter had recorded rainfalls topping out at 15 to 18 inches in some areas”

I noticed there is no mention of the 2 billion dollar (early estimate) rain and hail shit kicking in other parts of texass just a couple of weeks before.

Move along folks, move along. Nothing to see here.

Except for that never seen before softball sized hail.

Boat I know you are not a pure denier. That’s getting to be a dangerous stance whether the deniers realize it or not and I don’t mean from the climate. Your minimizing and rationalizing boat, which mean you are in the bargaining stage. Me I’m so fucking far past acceptance I can’t even see it in the rear view.

Stay frosty boaty.

makati1 on Thu, 28th Apr 2016 11:06 pm 



Ap. we both are past the acceptance stage. I am just enjoying the show at this point and sharing my take on the world and the Us especially. I only read articles that might point to when and where WW3 will start and how the economy is doing that will affect my resources. Nothing else matters. Certainly not “peak oily things”.

Preps are made. Whether they will be adequate only time will tell. But then, I could get hit by a car crossing the street this afternoon and it will not matter. I can remember at least 3 times in my life I should have died, but I didn’t. Just lucky, I guess. I hope it holds. I would like to see how humanity progresses to it’s inevitable end.

Davy on Fri, 29th Apr 2016 6:06 am 



Not that that this is a winner and looser game but I have counted up 9 near death events of various types. Maybe I am just more in touch with death than many. I think many of us have been close and don’t realize it. It is the exposure of near death experiences that change you forever.

rockman on Fri, 29th Apr 2016 7:18 am 



Yeastie – “The reason why the oil companies are not doing all that exploration IMHO is to a large extent because there is nothing left to find that makes a profit compared to the expenses.” Yes and no. There’s always someplace left to drill. But it’s a matter of scale. Consider when the Rockman started with Mobil Oil in 1975. His mentor explained PO and the struggle the oil patch faced THEN. Again this is 40+ years ago. We didn’t then nor now call it “peak oil” in the oil patch. It has always been the “reserve replacement problem”. The problem wasn’t a lack of new reserves to hunt for but the lack of new reserves as large as the ones we had already developed. Those were the reserves we’ve been trying to replace for more than 4 decades and it has always been a struggle. In the US not much success in that regards until we started expanding in the shallow water GOM in the 70’s and 80’s and then eventually the Deep Water GOM.

Consider the reserve replacement goal: from 1949 to 2011 the US has produced 215 BILLION BBLS OF OIL. And many tens of billions of bbls produced before 1949. And since 1975 when the Rockman first learned of PO the US has produced 130 BILLION BBLS OF OIL. Now think about one of the biggest DW GOM that might produce 500 million bbls of oil. While it sounds big that field replaces only 0.4% of the reserves we’ve produced since 1975. Now drop back to the onshore. The Rockman is trying to increase production from just one relatively small trend in Texas. Small but still produced 4.5 BILLION BBLS OF OIL. And that trend is now DEAD as far as developing NEW RESERVES: there are no undeveloped reservoirs left to find. Which shouldn’t be a shock since the trend was heavily explored starting in the 1930’s. All the major fields had been discovered and developed 60 years ago. What’s left to recover from existing wells amount to only hundreds of thousands of bbls.

Of course high oil process made developing the KNOWN oil reserves in the shales economic since most of the drilling and frac’ng tech had already been refined. But it’s easy to be impressed with some of the new reserve number: the EIA now estimates 4.84 million bopd from all the unconventional trends. That’s 1.8 BILLION BBLS OF OIL PER YEAR. So if oil prices had not collapse and there were an infinite number of unconventional wells left to drill it would only take another 72 years of drilling to replace the reserves the US has produced since the Rockman started in 1975. Helps to put some of those numbers into perspective, eh? LOL

shortonoil on Fri, 29th Apr 2016 8:16 am 



“Peakyeast; I don’t know about that, sounds like you’ve been listening to shortonoil too long & his thesis is simply incorrect.”

The report, “Depletion: A determination for the world’s petroleum reserve” has been reviewed by many thermodynamics professors from around the world. None of them have pointed out any significant errors in it. Perhaps you have identified some irregularity in it that they have over looked. Your expert, and objective evaluation would be appreciated by science?

Your written, and detailed critique could help us understand the ongoing, and very important depletion process. It is a subject of utmost importance to the world.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

peakyeast on Fri, 29th Apr 2016 11:25 am 



@rockman: Thanks a lot for that clarification.

I do love it when you chime in in the debat. You always give food for thought.

Boat on Fri, 29th Apr 2016 8:59 pm 



Kuwait finds new oil fields
DUBAI, March 24, 2016

http://www.tradearabia.com/news/OGN_303538.html

So much for no new fields. Kuwait plans to go from 3 mbpd to 4 mbpd by 2020.

GregT on Fri, 29th Apr 2016 9:21 pm 



“Kuwait plans to go from 3 mbpd to 4 mbpd by 2020.”

That would be Reuters reporting on Kuwait Boat. The same News Agency that repeatedly reported that the US was about to become energy independent from fraking. More corporately controlled MSM BS propaganda.

Boat on Fri, 29th Apr 2016 9:44 pm 



Great Britain Might Have Just Stumbled On An Oil Boom Worth $74 Billion

Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/19/great-britain-might-have-just-stumbled-on-an-oil-boom-worth-74-billion/#ixzz47H36OvYf

Boat on Fri, 29th Apr 2016 10:03 pm 



New oil discovery in Gulf of Mexico

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Energy-Industry/2016/04/27/New-oil-discovery-in-Gulf-of-Mexico/9611461757478/

Every time you doomers claim there are no new oil fields or finds you just have to laugh. I see them all the time.

Tip, set up a google account. In google news your allowed 15 keyword search topics. Pick (new oil finds) for one of them. This will keep you up to date.

peakyeast on Fri, 29th Apr 2016 10:49 pm 



@boat: The world is bigger than it seems you think it is. As THE Rockman pointed out: It’s a problem of SCALE.

Yes – they do find large fields today “all the time”. About every few months it happens.

And then they find a few days worth of oil. Often its touted as “4 saudi arabias” or “gigantic” – and then a little while later it becomes apparent that they misinformed since only about 1/10th to 1/100th of the proclaimed oil can actually come out of the ground.

Remember: They must find 1 billion barrels per 10 day just to “stand still”. They dont. Look up “red queen and Rune Likvern” if you still dont understand the problem.

apneaman on Fri, 29th Apr 2016 10:58 pm 



Boat.

The Daily Caller?

Says it all.

The Daily Retard.

Written by retards and read by even bigger retards.

geopressure on Fri, 29th Apr 2016 11:10 pm 



Hmmm…

I’m not too sure where I stand on the whole reserve argument…

I think that Iran & Kurdistan both house enormous untapped, undiscovered reserves… I think that Saudi, Iran & Iraq could each produce 10-12 Million BOPD…

I think the world CAN deliver way, way more oil, but we are about to experience a shortfall because we are not producing enough…

Boat on Fri, 29th Apr 2016 11:49 pm 



ape,

Once again you can copy and paste any headine and find dozens of sites that picked up the sanme story. Just like google, zerounhinged and peakoil do. Ya’ll should pay me to teach you this stuff.

apneaman on Sat, 30th Apr 2016 12:15 am 



Sure Boat. I was doing email alerts before you knew how to work a mouse. There is this other cool feature they have and it’s way older than email alerts. It’s called spell check. Maybe you’ll figure it out someday.

apneaman on Sat, 30th Apr 2016 12:22 am 



Boat, Alert! Alert!

Flash Flood Watch in effect for Houston area

http://abc13.com/weather/houston-braces-for-storms-flooding/39346/

Try and look on the bright side boat. At least y’all finally got all your potholes filled.

Boat on Sat, 30th Apr 2016 1:00 am 



ape,

It’s a wonder to me why people buy and live in flood zones. Especially near oceans. They even have very high flood insurance.

GregT on Sat, 30th Apr 2016 1:21 am 



@Boat,

Everything is a wonder to people such as yourself who are utterly fucking clueless. To everyone else, it’s a wonder how people like you manage to tie their own shoelaces.

peakyeast on Sat, 30th Apr 2016 4:29 am 



@geo: I believe you know the effect of compounding and doubling time.

How many doublings do we have left?

And how long time until we have used as much as ever used before?

Even if we dont care about climate or life on this planet (incl. ourselves) – as we have demonstrated as a civilisation – how much can we burn that provides energy for the world?

Btw. have you seen:
1. Albert bartless: exponential growth
2. Crashcourse Chris martenson.

Both are really entertaining and informative.

peakyeast on Sat, 30th Apr 2016 4:39 am 



@boat: dont be a marmico – its really not conductive for your own development nor impressing others.

Try to read the comments and understand what they are about.

Davy on Sat, 30th Apr 2016 7:05 am 



Oil is life or death and the world is either discounting it or dismissing it. It is simple really. Limits of growth in both discoveries in relation to continued slowly growing demand show depletion is winning. We can’t degrowth and can’t have oil decline or our growth based system fails. Diminishing returns shows us that the usable energy to society is declining. This is happening for multiple reasons. Oil’s chemical quality is in decline. The economic quality of oil is declining. We have oil in deeper and harder to get places requiring more money to find and produce. We have a society that is needing ever more high quality oil in greater amounts. This is profoundly happening in the Middle East. It is happening in the west too where society is undergoing broad based limits to growth and systematic diminishing returns. This situation has created multiple problems and predicaments needing cheap abundant oil. Instead the economy is struggling with a problematic oil sector and an associated economy with negative oil issues compounding problems.

If that was not enough we have climate change issues. The world may be dismissing peak oil but it has at least acknowledge grudgingly climate change. There are still deniers but at least the science is solid. Not that this grudging acknowledgment is realistic or effective but it is something compared to nothing significant for peak oil. Climate change confronts oil on two planes or dimensions. One is the waste stream and the other is the transition. The waste stream must be reduced so we need to transition away from our oil based culture but we can’t because there are no viable alternatives in scale of time of transition, energy density, and infrastructure needs. Oil is it and it is in broad based dynamic decline. It does not matter there is a supply glut. It does matter that it is killing our planet ecosystem. The catch 22 of this climate change issues with oil is we can’t do without oil to transition away from oil. The scale of that transition is huge and will cause runaway climate change. To completely redesign modern man’s civilization and that is what any alternative to oil is, is not possible in scale and if it were possible that transition would release so much carbon that release would destroy us anyway.

Peak oil dynamics is a sound concept (thanks Rock for your contribution). We have multidimensional ascending levels of peak oil dynamic issues. That is a vague statement that points to a multilevel predicament we are in because we went all in with oil. Our society has no other option now but to collapse immediately with the loss of life or continue on with a slower decay and decline that will eventually lead us to the same outcome and probably worse. Our aggregate problems grow with continued status quo. If we collapse at least we could eliminate some of the growing problems from growth. Loss of life and the end of modern civilization is the simple end game with both doors we have in front of us. Either way we are doomed to decay and decline one quick and one slower. There is no way to know which door would kill less people. It is clearer that immediate collapse would at least save some of the planet. We are an extinction species so our end or huge reduction would surely benefit the entire earth ecosystem. That is peak oil dynamics of doom in one slap in the face.