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Page added on April 21, 2011
Jeff Rubin: When will we see demand destruction for oil?
How high must oil prices go before they start killing the very demand that feeds them?
Everybody from the International Monetary Fund to the International Energy Agency (IEA) is warning of dire economic consequences if today’s triple digit oil prices persist.
Curiously though, the IEA, which is warning of a potential global recession due to today’s oil prices, is also predicting an almost a one-and-a-half-million-barrel-a-day increase in world demand this year. And judging by their recent track record, this forecast, like the one it made early last year for 2010, will once again be on the light side.
Somber warnings from leading world institutions aside, there is no evidence yet of demand destruction in the places that have been pushing world consumption for over the better part of the past decade. Preliminary data on apparent fuel consumption show Chinese oil demand, already closing in on ten-million barrels a day, continued to grow at a double-digit rate in March for the sixth consecutive month. That doesn’t sound like demand destruction to me.
Of course, that is not to say there won’t be demand destruction in the future as oil prices continue to rise. All past oil shocks have resulted in recessions and falling crude prices, and there is no reason to expect the coming one will be any different.
Given how high oil prices will likely rise ($200/barrel?) and the likely lack of fiscal counter measures from deficit-ridden governments when the economy does finally keel over, there is potentially even more room for demand destruction than during the last recession. Keep in mind, the last recession was severe enough to register the first annual drop in world oil consumption since 1983.
But what is still lacking for demand destruction to happen is the huge round of monetary tightening that always attenuates oil shocks. It’s no doubt coming. Just look how interest rates are already chasing runaway energy and food inflation in the world economy’s new growth areas, China and India.
Facing 5.5 per cent inflation, the People’s Bank of China has already increased interest rates four times over the past six months, and inflation will soon force other central banks around the world to follow their lead. Just as they did last time, those rate hikes, along with the burden of skyrocketing fuel bills, will eventually knock the economy back into recession.
But until then, it is a little too early to focus on demand destruction. In the meantime, a fuel-hungry world economy will push oil prices to new record highs.
7 Comments on "Jeff Rubin: When will we see demand destruction for oil?"
JohnRM on Thu, 21st Apr 2011 3:27 am
Those whose opinions I trust say that all else being equal, the economy will stagnate at $120 per barrel for oil. Growth becomes almost impossible at current levels of dependence on oil, at that price. All else is NOT equal, however. The economy is still weak and very fragile. Unemployment is still very high. I’ve heard that forecasts for 4 percent growth in GDP have been cut to 2 percent and that we’re struggling even to maintain that. So…I think demand destruction is already starting to happen.
Roderick Beck on Thu, 21st Apr 2011 3:31 am
John,
That’s not correct. Forecast is 3% real GDP growth for the US and that is easily attainable.
Carterb on Thu, 21st Apr 2011 3:41 am
Jeff Rubin knows of what he speaks. China and India want the American dream buying 15 million new cars a year, carbon emitters each. Read Jeff’s book. I have, twice.
John on Thu, 21st Apr 2011 4:43 am
4 percent World GDP growth, not US.
cusano on Thu, 21st Apr 2011 5:45 am
The very fact that we’re having this debate sends shivers up my spine. If our best hopes are for GDP to be 2,3,or 4% under current conditions, what are we looking at when energy gets REALLY expensive? Every cycle of high energy costs and recession gets tighter and tighter..eventually they’ll merge. At that point, we would rejoice at 2% GDP.
Rick on Thu, 21st Apr 2011 8:02 am
Those who think any growth going forward is still possible, anywhere, have their heads up you know where. The party is over folks. Time to initiate your own Plan B, if you have one. If you don’t you still don’t understand where this world is headed. Peak Oil is here. I say unless you’re able to heat your home using passive solar, and able to grow your own food within 10 years from now, you are screwed. You won’t survive.
Harquebus on Thu, 21st Apr 2011 9:42 am
This is nothing. Try feeding 7 billion hungries.