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Page added on May 19, 2016
Is Food the Last Thing to Worry About?
Our food system is woefully dependent on petroleum, as writers such as Richard Heinberg (1) and Michael Pollan (2) have eloquently pointed out. Soaring food costs have brought on riots in some countries, and in unstable nations, famine continues to be a regular visitor. Fears of empty grocery shelves have made food security the centerpiece of many a post-Peak Oil plan, and among those watching energy descent, a common refrain is that the best way to guarantee your food supply is to buy a piece of land and grow your own.
Yet in the developed world, especially the breadbasket nations such as the US, Canada, and other food-exporting countries, the food network may be one of the last systems to fail during energy descent. In developing a wise post-Peak strategy, assessing relative risks is critical. Devoting large amounts of time and resources to events that are less likely leaves us unprepared for more probable difficulties. I don’t want to discourage anyone from growing food—I’m a serious gardener myself and could list dozens of excellent reasons for doing it. But I think there are many reasons not to be focusing primarily on food as the system most likely to fail. This isn’t to say that industrial, oil-based agriculture is invulnerable, let alone sustainable. And we may see temporary shortages of specific foods. But there are many reasons why our fears of a food collapse—particularly when they lead us to a go-it-alone, grow-your-own response—may be distracting us from focusing on more immediate and likely risks.
First, two notes of clarification: This article is about net food-exporting nations such as the US, where I live. In the less-developed world, where food growing has been abandoned for export crops that are sold for cash to import commodity food, the food system is far more vulnerable. And by “food collapse” I mean a prolonged inability to produce essential foods, not brief or local shortages of certain items, or high prices while supplies are ample. Volatile commodities markets, weather, and the other gyrations of our uncertain era mean that temporary or local shortages can always occur.
Food gets a lot of attention in part because we need it to survive, but also because one solution to a food crisis—growing your own—seems doable. I suspect we focus on food in part because providing it appears much more possible than, say, keeping the financial, health care, or automotive industries running.
Why would I argue that food collapse in breadbasket nations is not likely, when today’s farming is so dependent on hydrocarbons? Our food system is complex—much more so than it needs to be—but many of our society’s other structures are far more complex, and thus more vulnerable. Joseph Tainter (3) and others point out that complex systems need increasing energy inputs, and eventually reach a point of diminishing returns, so that the costs of complexity eventually outrun its benefits. When inputs decline, the most complex systems are often the first to fail, since they need vast resources to maintain them. With that in mind, we can ask what is likely to fail first during energy descent. That way, we’ll know what we should direct our energies toward preparing for.
Is it any wonder that one of the first complex systems to collapse has been our financial system? The energy and complexity used in Byzantine financial instruments such as collateralized debt obligations and credit default swaps, and in moving trillions of dollars through millions of highly orchestrated transactions each day, is immensely greater than what it takes to grow, process, and ship food. Another system teetering near collapse is health care, and it, too, is a fantastically complicated system needing sophisticated, expensive equipment and years of specialized training for practitioners, all administered by an insurance system of equally staggering complexity. Thus the most complex systems are already collapsing. When viewed through the lens of complexity, the relative robustness of the developed world’s food system, even as finance collapses and health care becomes increasingly unavailable, is less mysterious.
It would bolster my argument to show quantitative measurements of these systems’ relative complexity, and for these I’ll point to Howard T. Odum (4) and his concepts of emergy (not energy, but embedded energy) and transformity. Emergy measures the total solar energy used directly and indirectly to make a product or service. Transformity builds on this, and means the emergy of one type required to produce a unit of energy of another type. It describes conversion losses and energy quality. For example, think of a food chain. A million calories of solar energy can make a given quantity of algae. When plankton eat this, it might yield 1000 calories of plankton. These plankton, when eaten, become one calorie of fish. Thus the transformity of that one calorie of fish is one million calories: the amount of sunlight used at the beginning of the food chain divided by the one calorie of fish produced. The plankton, being lower on the food chain, have a lower transformity: 1000 calories, or a million calories of algae divided by 1000 calories of plankton produced.
Processes that have higher transformity don’t just need more energy per output. They also contain more energy conversion steps, which bring efficiency losses and places for the system to fail. Also, high-transformity systems usually need more complex technologies than processes of lower transformity. Plankton are simpler than fish.
So how complex is our food system? Odum’s work tells us that food transformities in industrial cultures are on the order of 25,000 to 100,000 sej/J (solar emergy joules input per joule gained). This is low compared to nearly all other familiar goods and services. Odum says that the production of paper has a transformity of 215,000 sej/J; electricity, 200,000 sej/J; cement, 750,000,000 sej/J; and complex transactions based on digital technologies, such as investment banking, have transformities in the billions or higher. If complexity, transformity, and stability are related—and I think they are—then activities of great complexity and high transformities, including office jobs, electricity, communications, and nearly all social and economic services, will be disrupted before food production will be. We’re seeing that process unwind today. Training and supplying an investment banker or surgeon is more complex than doing the same for a farmer. As complexity plummets due to energy descent, jobs and products of lower transformity are more likely to remain.
But even if the food system isn’t all that complex, you might argue, we have paved over much of our farmland and use oil to make food. Let’s look at the numbers. The US is a net exporter of food, and produces roughly 4000 calories of food per person (5). To stock this larder, the US uses roughly 3 million barrels per day of petroleum, or 15% of our total consumption (6). Thus the US could cut the amount of oil used by the food system in half and still provide a basic 2000-calorie diet. That’s 1.5 million barrels per day or its equivalent, which should be available for some time. This means that neither complexity nor oil are likely to be limiting factors on food production in breadbasket nations until after the failure of other more complex, energy-intensive elements of our lives.
Cheap oil has freed us to pour staggering amounts of energy, both human and fossil, into non-essentials, such as the entertainment, recreation, tourism, sports, media, and other fuel-gobbling industries. Inexpensive oil lets much of the developed world endlessly buzz around in inefficient cars and jets. In other words, 85% of our fossil-fuel consumption is used for things other than food, usually wastefully. As oil becomes expensive we will choose to redirect a modest portion of that 85% away from long commutes, non-essential industries, and other symptoms of cheap oil, in order to feed ourselves. It’s likely that as we round Hubbert’s bend we’ll return to putting 30-50% of our energy use toward food production, as has been the case for most of human history (7). This reordering of oil priorities can buy us the time needed to reconfigure our grossly inefficient, hydrocarbon-based food system into something far more localized and sustainable, if we’re smart.
Another oft-cited argument for food collapse is that fossil-fuel supplies are unreliable. What if foreign producers cut us off? The US currently produces about 5.2 million barrels of oil per day. Canada and Mexico are the top two petroleum importers for the US, providing about 40% of our imports, or 3.8 million bbl/day (8). Thus 9 million bbl/day are currently available from nearby sources. That’s three times the oil used by our food system, and six times what is needed for a basic diet. Natural gas, used to make nitrogen fertilizers, is a critical agricultural resource that also comes from relatively stable sources. Canada provides 95% of America’s natural-gas imports. The continent’s intertwined economies and the realities of geopolitics make it probable that hydrocarbons will flow long enough for the US to shift to a less oil-intensive agriculture. Obviously, oil output will continue its decline, and there are bound to be periodic crises, but the numbers suggest that starvation in the US is far from a certainty.
Food production is truly the oldest profession. We’re good at it, we’ve been doing it for 10,000 years, and it is a relatively simple system to run. It is at the base of a large cultural pyramid, which makes it fundamental, so although disrupting it would be catastrophic, it is also more elementary and thus easier to keep running than all the systems above its level of complexity. There are gardeners in over 71 million American households (9), so there is a sizable knowledge base to help with the transition to more local food production.
Almost certainly, food will shift from being a minor piece of the US economy to once again requiring one-third to one-half of our labor and energy. The example of Cuba, which in a few years retooled its agriculture system after a sudden and near-total cutoff of oil, shows that food systems can be modified quickly. How long would it take us to convert the nearest city park, or a soybean field that’s growing feedstocks for newspaper ink and car lacquer, into food production if it were urgent? One season. The recent substitution of ethanol corn for soybeans over vast acreages in a single season shows how quickly farmers can respond to new markets. And as food prices rise, people thrown out of work by energy descent will find jobs growing food, as Sharon Astyk and Aaron Newton have suggested in their book, A Nation of Farmers.
As cheap shipping disappears, can we feed ourselves locally? To gauge this, we need to know if there is enough farmland near cities to feed their populations. Researchers at Cornell University found that the basic calories to feed Rochester, New York’s population of 225,000 could be grown on existing cropland within 16.5 miles (26.6 km) of the city limits and would cover 36,000 hectares (90,000 acres) (10). This admittedly simplistic analysis looks only at caloric needs, not overall nutrition. To provide a balanced and diverse diet might require a larger area, so let’s say we’d need twice as much land, or 180,000 acres. That area is still within 25 miles of the city, close enough to easily bring goods to market. This could save much of the fuel used today to transport the infamous 1500-mile salad. Plus, the Cornell analysis assumes wasteful conventional agriculture techniques, not high-intensity ones that use local nutrient sources such as composted waste and animal and human manure, as well as other resource-saving methods that people dependent on local food would readily use. It’s probable that the largest cities, such as New York, would be unable to feed themselves locally, but it is likely that for them we will set fuel priorities to ship food from more distant farms.
And it is the reordering of fuel priorities that leads us to one of the most powerful reasons that food supplies are less likely to run out than almost any other resource. Politicians understand that hungry people topple governments. We’re deeply imbued with cultural lore reflecting this. Most people know little else about Marie Antoinette other than the apocryphal taunt to starving peasants that ensured her rendezvous with the guillotine, “Let them eat cake.” Trotsky noted that every society is only three meals away from a revolution. History shows that any functional state short of a kleptocracy will allow almost every other service—health care, banking, sanitation, schools, transportation—to languish before it allows its people to go hungry. Preserving the flow of at least 1.5 million barrels of oil per day for food will be a critical priority of the US government.
Let me be the first to admit that there’s still some chance of food collapse. Perhaps stupid or corrupt leaders will choose to direct energy resources not toward food but to the military or the rich. Or it’s possible that the link between the financial sector and food, via the futures and commodities markets, may play havoc with food supplies. And it’s certain that adjusting from today’s food consuming 10% of the average family budget to the historical norm of 30% to 50% will be disruptive.
Whatever your chosen post-Peak scenario, it’s smart to keep emergency food and water on hand, as much as makes you feel comfortable. But focusing on preparations for a food-system collapse reminds me of the story of the fellow searching for his keys under the streetlight. He didn’t lose them there, but that was the only place where the light was bright enough to see. In crisis, we often default to doing what we know even if it’s not the wisest action. We can’t individually fix the economy or health care, yet we certainly can grow some food, and that may be why it is central to many post-Peak plans. And I agree: growing food is simple. It’s an ancient skill that is at the heart of human culture, and even in its industrial manifestation, it is a robust system that is less complex and energy-intensive than most of society’s other activities. That’s why I suspect the food system will last longer than much of the rest of the oil society. Although brief disruptions are certainly possible, in breadbasket nations food is more likely than many other aspects of our culture to make it through the transition.
But for a thousand other reasons, plant a garden anyway.
49 Comments on "Is Food the Last Thing to Worry About?"
ghung on Thu, 19th May 2016 12:03 pm
Since, at least in developed nations, our food systems are highly industrialised and financialised, seems logical that food production at scale is highly vulnerable to industrial and financial disruption. Current levels of food production are utterly reliant upon healthy credit and industrial markets, and highly subsidised. SNAP alone accounted for over a $74 billion injection of capital into the US food system last year.
While I agree that, in the event of contraction/collapse, governments will attempt to prioritise food production and distribution, that assumes functional government and available resources. A lot of things have to go right to keep billions fed. Only a few things have to go wrong in order to have a lot of hungry pissed-off people.
Revi on Thu, 19th May 2016 12:13 pm
I think it will depend on where you live. If you are in the middle of the desert and can’t get to where food is grown then you might have a problem…
Revi on Thu, 19th May 2016 1:09 pm
I have always thought that the thing to get if it gets bad is a small house with lots of garden space in a defensible town. There may be more food in a place where others live. I have a friend who has a farm right near the middle of our town, and it may be a good place to be when it gets nasty.
JuanP on Thu, 19th May 2016 1:26 pm
While I agree with the author that the food system in some countries is more resilient than other systems, I do not trust in its lasting the rest of my wife’s life, so we grow food. I suggest everyone learn how to grow food. You can do it indoors with natural lighting or grow LEDs. You can do it outdoors in a window sill, balcony, patio, garden, community garden, or by practicing guerrilla gardening. You can do it without soil, hydroponically, get an Aerogarden, build an aquaculture system with a 10 gallon fish tank and some lettuce or herbs. Grow vertically on trellises and hanging gardens on your windows and walls. Build a roof garden by putting some buckets with potting mix to grow something on flat roofs. You can grow sprouts in a glass jar, learn to grow microgreens indoors in a 2X4 and plywood shelf system using 1020 trays and LED grow lights with automatic watering.
Learn how to preserve food by dehydrating, canning, salting, smoking, freezing, vacuum sealing, and other techniques.
Learn how to cook a healthy, delicious, and nutritious diet using the ingredients you grow. Enjoy the best meals of your life. There is nothing like eating the food you grow and feeding your friends and family with it.
All the things above can be done at a low cost and will provide fresh home grown food and cheap and healthy entertainment. I wouldn’t want to live without growing food.
Apneaman on Thu, 19th May 2016 3:56 pm
NO.
Here is something else to worry about which is already well underway. This major issue can only even be attempted to be solved with highly complex, science based societies that are functioning.
Superbugs will ‘kill every three seconds’
“Superbugs will kill someone every three seconds by 2050 unless the world acts now, a hugely influential report says.
The global review sets out a plan for preventing medicine “being cast back into the dark ages” that requires billions of dollars of investment.
It also calls for a revolution in the way antibiotics are used and a massive campaign to educate people.
The report has received a mixed response with some concerned that it does not go far enough.”
http://www.bbc.com/news/health-36321394
Davy on Thu, 19th May 2016 4:02 pm
Juan, I know we have differences but I do admire your permaculture knowledge. I read all you posts on the subject and retain notes. Keep up the good work.
Bob Owens on Thu, 19th May 2016 4:54 pm
In a rational society this descent picture is quite plausible. Looking around the USA, however, we see lots of people going hungry now and we don’t even have a crisis yet. SNAP benefits cost $74.1 billion in fiscal year 2014 and supplied roughly 46.5 million Americans with an average of $125.35 for each person per month in food assistance. Add to this the constant drum of food drives in your local community and we can get the idea. A little into the future we can see what happens by looking at Venezuela. People are currently eating dogs, cats and birds; standing in huge lines for hours; rioting every day; rolling blackouts. It looks like all their systems will collapse at the same time. So what can an individual do? Stockpiling 6 months of food will certainly be helpful. This stock can be augmented with what supplies are available and would last several years. One could hope that by the end of that period some order might be restored.
bug on Thu, 19th May 2016 5:41 pm
Apnea, thanks for the link on superbugs.
Interesting info.
jaimieb on Thu, 19th May 2016 6:01 pm
JuanP, Growing your own food is great, I do a lot of it myself, but a family needs 2 to 3,000 sq. ft. of garden to come close to growing enough. Plus a relatively long growing season. Forget the fancy systems, just get some ground outdoors, build up the soil and enjoy the sunshine.
Apneaman on Thu, 19th May 2016 6:41 pm
Some privileged folks (cancer workers) be worrying about water.
Wildfire contaminants could sully Fort McMurray water supply
River water will be difficult to treat in the coming weeks and months
“Preventing tons of ash and cinders left by a huge wildfire from contaminating the city’s drinking water, will be a challenge says a University of Alberta scientist.
The blaze has torched more than 420,000 hectares of northern Alberta forest, leaving behind soil now thick with ash, that can feed into the water supply.
“What has us concerned is, all of the run-off after this fire,” said Uldis Silins, professor of forest hydrology and watershed management with the University of Alberta.”
“All the ash and some of the contaminants that are coming off the landscape when we start to get those rains, is going to be washing those materials into the river, right above the city of Fort McMurray.”
Silins, who is among several water scientists working with the Alberta government on a recovery plan for Fort McMurray, says the contaminated water will be difficult to treat.
Though rain would provide long-awaited relief to firefighters on the front line, it would be a double-edged sword for water treatment officials.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/wildfire-contaminants-could-sully-fort-mcmurray-water-supply-1.3588120
Mo Money Mo Money (taxpayer) to fix the fossil fuel burning externalities (industry & consumer).
God bless the cancer and let’s get er up and running again because we need gas money for our Dodge Ram 2500 (5966 lbs) so I can drive it to the grocery store to pick up a loaf of bread, gallon of milk and a dozen eggs. This is the only possible way to live. This way or back to the caves. Nope – nothing in between or anything like that. This is the only way we could have possibly survived. Tomorrow I’ll drive my 5966 lb truck back to the store cause I forgot the carrots.
ghung on Thu, 19th May 2016 7:58 pm
I just came in after finishing planting 14 new blueberry bushes. Put them in right with plenty of organic humus and peat moss mixed with good native soil (big holes!). I also added irrigation in case of inevitable drought – simple 1/2″ PVC with tiny holes drilled at each bush, buried under the mulch. I’m trying a few new varieties, including one called “Peach Sorbet”. Sounds tasty.
Many of the blueberries I helped my mother plant over 40 years ago are still producing, though my brother got that property when my parents passed. He doesn’t prune and give them love, or they would still be producing like crazy.
Anyway, planting perennials like blueberries and other fruits can be a muti-generational food source, especially if someone cares for them. Brambles are also a good choice if you have the space and can keep them under control. We have plenty of blueberries, blackberries, and raspberries on the place. When I crap blue, I know I’m getting my vitamins 😉
It’s pretty easy to spot the folks on this board who aren’t real growers. They have way too many posts, especially in the spring/summer. Go grow something. Time better spent.
Davy on Thu, 19th May 2016 8:01 pm
JamieB, it is really worse than that because gardens only provide a portion of the nutrition we need. There is also the issue if your garden fails. What is needed is a community of gardens, animal husbandry, and fields of grain. This is naturally what we once had until we opened the fossil fuel door. We had small farms and small farming communities spread across the landscape.
I highly recommend to everyone to grow something just like Juan said. If for no other reason than to educating yourself. What is ahead is a world with food insecurity. We are so oblivious to this it is absurd.
Davy on Thu, 19th May 2016 8:09 pm
I put in 42 tomato plants today I grew from seed. Tomorrow I am putting in cucumbers and melons. Berry patch is doing well. Little apples are on my trees and grapes vines are growing like weeds. Lifting weights right now on the back porch and watching nature. Life is pretty good. Unfortunately hard times are ahead for all of us and all this happiness may be gone but at least for today life is good.
JuanP on Thu, 19th May 2016 8:15 pm
Jaimieb, You don’t have to start by growing all your food. You can start by growing a little and increase the amount little by little. You can learn a lot before owning land. I take baby steps. Yesterday we cooked kale pesto for the first time. We had too much kale, so we were learning new recipes. Last night an iguana had most of our kale for dinner. 🙁
JuanP on Thu, 19th May 2016 8:16 pm
Let’s keep growing, guys! Good job!
aspera on Thu, 19th May 2016 8:24 pm
“It’s pretty easy to spot the folks on this board who aren’t real growers. They have way too many posts.” -ghung
Ain’t that the truth. We don’t have enough land for more than our ~200 sq. ft. of raised beds and a few dwarf fruit trees. So we’re trying another strategy.
Just returned from distributing seedlings to a few community gardens we support with time, money and advice. We also help a young couple who bought 80 acres north of town (with the money their parents would have spent on the wedding and gifts). They have a CSA and my wife and I take turns staffing their farm stand were the pick-up happens.
Tomorrow I’m working on installing 2x 100 watt pv panels to charge their tractor/cultivator that was retrofitted to run on electric. First time installing panels, controller, battery, etc. I’m hoping that engineering degree from the early 70s is still rattling around inside.
All this is part of our Homeland Security Project. (Pay your dues with those who grow your food.)
Apneaman on Thu, 19th May 2016 8:51 pm
Farm boys make me want to sing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V_IrdS-zu48
GregT on Thu, 19th May 2016 9:02 pm
Peas and beans have mostly sprouted now. Tomatoes are now three feet tall and covered in flowers. Cucumber and squash seedlings planted this morning. We had all of our herbs in pots before, as of today we now have a herb garden! Still no sign of life from the asparagus crowns.
JuanP on Thu, 19th May 2016 9:04 pm
Aspera, My wife and I help with our local CSA, too. They are very organic and anti fossil fuels, etc.
The only piece of equipment other than their pickup that runs on oil is their walk behind cultivator, and I’ve been thinking about making it electrical and solar. Share the data on your project later if you get to make that conversion. I suck with mechanical things, it is one of my biggest weaknesses. I have never liked engines. The electrical part would be pretty basic.
makati1 on Thu, 19th May 2016 9:07 pm
“The US is a net exporter of food,…”
No, the Us is an exporter of grains, mostly grown in one small area of the US. One bad year’s weather can change all of that. Think the Dust Bowl of the last century. Those industrial farms will be gone and so will that bragged about ‘export’ when the weather cycles make growing them impossible.
In all of that long pack of words by Toby, I did not see one mention of the weather changes occurring today over most of the world. A few more years of drought and Cali will not be America’s bread basket. It may be burned over desert. Oil is going away. So are about 6-7 billion of us in the not too distant future. If you are not learning how to grow your own food, and how to preserve it from year to year, you are crippling your chances of survival. I live in a part of the world where there are no growing seasons to stop food production. There is always a crop growing. But you need to like rice…lol
Apneaman on Thu, 19th May 2016 9:29 pm
24 picture slide show of that recent worrying weather for Texas
Photos show flooding, wind damage, baseball-size hail in Texas from May’s extreme weather
http://www.mysanantonio.com/news/weather/article/Photos-show-flooding-wind-damage-across-Texas-7672928.php
ghung on Thu, 19th May 2016 9:34 pm
Juan said; “The only piece of equipment other than their pickup that runs on oil is their walk behind cultivator, and I’ve been thinking about making it electrical and solar.”
I’m doing all of my tilling/cultivating with a Greenworks electric cultivator I got at Lowes for $149, running it off of a small solar system I built for the garden and high tunnel. I probably have less than $600 in the whole thing, and the solar system is doing other chores. Beats the shit out of maintaining and fuelling an ICE tiller.
GregT on Thu, 19th May 2016 10:32 pm
What size of inverter, batteries, and cells are you using for the tiller Ghung?
aspera on Thu, 19th May 2016 11:59 pm
JuanP,
The conversion was to an Allis-Chalmers “G” Cultivating Tractor. The IC engine is in the back of the “G” with implements hung the front giving great sight-lines for cultivating close rows. We just drop the IC and replace it with an electric motor and battery box.
Another farm in our county did this years ago (photo here: https://communityfarmofaa.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/work16.jpg) and recorded the retrofit (https://communityfarmofaa.wordpress.com/solar-powered-tractor/conversion-process).
It wasn’t hard to follow. Major problem is acquiring a “G” tractor. They have kits now for making this conversion.
Davy on Fri, 20th May 2016 5:40 am
“It’s pretty easy to spot the folks on this board who aren’t real growers. They have way too many posts.” –ghung”
Yes and no. In my case I work 10-12 hour days farming. During these long days of hard constant work it is my time here on the board that allows me to relax at board breaks. I need breaks to slow down my mind and my work. Sometimes I do too much too quick because with 400 acres and all the plans I have there is not enough time and money so I push myself and pushing oneself makes a person sloppy. I work out physically with weights and bike riding. I fast twice a week that is part of my training of experiencing hardship. It is my time on this board that is my intellectual work out. We must keep our minds fit too.
I am here in the morning usually get up at 4:00am and have my coffee. I have good strong coffee made properly. I have 2 shots of machine espresso and 3 cups of French press coffee properly ground from the best whole beans I can buy. Water is boiled then allowed to set 1min. I also make 4 quarts of quality green tea for my daily drink at the same time. When I am here in the morning I am jacked up on caffeine which is my one and only drug. As you can see I am a creature of routine and discipline. I have to be to get done all I must get done. I could probably spend less time on this board and work less but I enjoy what we do here. Long story short shoe fits for me.
Davy on Fri, 20th May 2016 6:05 am
My cattle and goat grazing system is my primary focus. I have a grid connected electric fence but I have backup solar. I have three grid connected wells with different animal waterers but I have a backup 5 acre lake and small pond. The lake and the pond I will soon install animal drinkers behind the dams and supplied by siphon. I am going to purchase a solar DC pump to pump water as needed from my water sources. I eventually want to get a horse to check fences, herd animals, and get to where I need to get on these 400 acres.
I am purchasing implements to use behind animals to work the ground and pasture. I am buying hand tools to do the same. I also have large equipment that I am going to use until I can’t. I want to get the land in the best shape I can for those days that are coming when diesel and gas is no longer available at all or in shortage. I am efficient as I can be with this bigger equipment. Those who bitch and moan about big equipment don’t have 400 productive acres to manage. I know when someone on this board knows little about farming. There are several book and part time “wanna-be” farmers on this board. This is great but don’t criticize until you have done it.
There are many different ways to farm. I greatly admire the permaculture specialist here like regulars Juan and G-hung. I am incorporating any of this permaculture into my personal space I can but I still have a 400 acre farm to run. Eventually I will not be able to manage this many acres but I will have gotten these 400 acres in the best shape I can so eventually I can use animals to work and graze the land. Someday more people will have to take over. I will have good land ready for them when that day comes. I am using BAU to leave BAU. I am using what is available until it isn’t knowing full well that day is approaching. I am taking steps for when fossil fuels are not available.
Cloud9 on Fri, 20th May 2016 6:49 am
Wood gas is a way to use existing equipment. FEMA has plans for one that will run a tractor. At a minimum, you should down load the plans and print them up.
Cloud9 on Fri, 20th May 2016 6:51 am
Here is the link. http://soilandhealth.org/wp-content/uploads/0302hsted/fema.woodgas.pdf
makati1 on Fri, 20th May 2016 7:28 am
How weather can change quickly. A friend in PA said they had frost last week. MAY and frost in PA! Also the temps have been 10-15F below normal there for a while with an unusual Spring. That is not good for the growing season in PA.
Here in the Ps, the weather has been dryer and hotter than normal which also affects the growing season. Nothing is certain in the future. Not even this year’s crops.
ghung on Fri, 20th May 2016 8:08 am
GregT asked; “What size of inverter, batteries, and cells are you using for the tiller Ghung?
It’s just a cheap Cobra 1500 watt inverter running off of two Walmart cycle 27DC batteries. The panel is a Suntech 240 watt; charge controller is a cheap Chinese MPPT (24V => 12V) from Ebay. I can get about 45 minutes of tilling time before the batteries need to catch up; enough to cultivate one of my 35′ x 4′ beds nicely. Once the beds are well-established, I’m generally just tilling in compost and fertilizer prior to planting. Also nice for weeding. I like this tiller’s small size and manoeuvrability, though it’s really pretty powerful for its size. Love that electric torque.
The system also powers some 12 volt LEDs in the high tunnel, charges batteries for portable tools, and powers a wifi hotspot and a couple of “garden cams”; IP cameras I use to spy on deer. Also, someone “borrowed” a couple of items from my tool shed down at the garden so hopefully I can discourage that sort of thing as well. The gable fans in the high tunnel are 12 volt solar roof vents powered directly from one of my 21-years-old 75 watt Siemens panels.
Lawfish1964 on Fri, 20th May 2016 8:39 am
I don’t know how this guy can say growing food is easy if he actually grows it. It’s hard and risky. That’s why I grow food now. The best time to learn how to grow food is before your life depends on it.
I have learned other skills which I think will keep me in demand in a collapse situation. I’ve become quite adept at brewing beer, cider and shine. Bring me a 10 lb. bag of sugar and I’ll spit out a gallon and a half of 100 proof shine 10 days later.
I’m also planting lots of fruit trees. That is truly the inter-generational food supply. I suspect my children will enjoy the fruits of that labor far more than I ever will. But they will inherit a homestead that has two hand-built chicken coops, gardens that have been lovingly cared for for years, a basement devoted strictly to fermentation and canning and some know-how. Fortunately, my house was built before air conditioning, so it was strategically placed beneath three live oak trees which keep it fully shaded in summer and therefore relatively cool without AC.
GregT on Fri, 20th May 2016 8:48 am
Thanks for the info Ghung, appreciated!
I picked up a half dozen 50W poly panels @ $1.50/W last week. Cheapest I’ve been able to find up here in Canada. I have several UPS sealed AGM batteries that I’ve been using to power electric trolling motors on the aluminum boat. For the time being I’m still in the tinkering phase. I like the idea of an electric tiller. There is a similar model available up here at Canadian tire going on sale next week for $149 CAD. 8A instead of 10A.
http://www.canadiantire.ca/en/pdp/yardworks-8a-tiller-0603783p.html#srp
Good reviews. I think I’ll pick one up for next spring. I’m sure it beats the heck out of manual labour. Ultimately I plan on putting a system together for back up power in case of outages, or if/when things go south. My main concerns are with refrigeration, and pumping water to the house from a shallow well. I’m still trying to wrap my head around PF, amps to watts, etc. Haven’t really spent too much time on this yet. I’m thinking a 3000W pure sine inverter like this one, or would this be overkill?
http://gpelectric.com/products/3000-watt-pure-sine-wave-inverter
ghung on Fri, 20th May 2016 9:47 am
Greg; Unless you plan to run big loads or many small loads at the same time, 2000 watts can do a lot. Remember, amps x volts = watts, or watts/volts = amps, so a 2000 watt inverter can give you 16+ amps at 120 volts. Xantrex (Schneider Electric) is right there in Canada. Maybe you can find one of these:
http://sunelec.com/inverters/inverter-chargers/12v-inverter-chargers/freedom-458-3012-single-output-and-freedom-remote-control.html.
Also, Outback in the Seattle area makes probably the best off-grid inverter/chargers. Look for an inverter/charger that can charge your batteries (basically works in reverse) from the grid and/or a generator. Nice for keeping batteries happy. The folks at the link, above, ship all over the world and have great prices. Not sure about duties. Maybe you can have one shipped to a friend in the states.
Anyway, remember that, at full load, a 3000 watt 12 volt inverter pulls 250 amps from your battery, so you’ll need BIG battery cables and a big breaker or fuse.
If I had to choose one 12 volt off-grid inverter for a smaller system it would be this one:
http://sunelec.com/inverters/inverter-chargers/12v-inverter-chargers/outback-power-fx2012t-2000-watt-12-volt-sealed-off-grid-inverter-charger.html
We have the 24 volt version, and will soon replace our big 24 volt Trace inverters (now Xantrex/Schneider) with a pair of the Outback 3.5 Kw versions (currently available a bit cheaper). Two of either of these inverters can provide 240 volts (120+120+), the 3.5Kw version at 30 amps (for a welder or big well pump, etc.).
As for refrigeration, both our refrigerator and our big chest freezer are currently running off of the 2000 watt Outback, as are all of our electronic loads, except this PC which runs directly off of the batteries.
Apneaman on Fri, 20th May 2016 10:00 am
How will crops do when these temps start hanging around for weeks and months and water will be even more scarce?
India Just Set A New All-Time Record High Temperature – 51 Degrees Celsius
A small city in northwest India climbed to a searing 51 degrees Celsius – or 123.8 degrees Fahrenheit – on Thursday afternoon, and broke the country’s record for all-time hottest temperature. The previous record, 50.6 degrees Celsius, was set in 1886.
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/india-just-set-a-new-all-time-record-high-temperature-51-degrees-celsius-1408185
GregT on Fri, 20th May 2016 10:08 am
Thank-you Ghung!
I have both relatives and good friends in the Seattle area. A couple of them are likely to be coming up to visit in late June/early July. I really appreciate you passing on your knowledge and experience,
Saved for future reference.
Apneaman on Fri, 20th May 2016 10:36 am
Atmospheric CO2 May Have Topped 400 PPM Permanently
Rising CO2 levels not only break a worrying threshold, ‘I think we’re essentially over for good,’ says Ralph Keeling
“Just three years ago this month, the carbon dioxide monitoring station atop Hawaii’s Mauna Loa reached a significant milestone: the first measurement of CO2 concentrations that exceeded the benchmark of 400 parts per million (ppm). Now, they may never again dip below it.
As CO2 levels once again approach their annual apex, they have reached astonishing heights. Concentrations in recent weeks have edged close to 410 ppm, thanks in part to a push from an exceptionally strong El Niño.
But it is the emissions from human activities that are by far the main driver of the inexorable climb of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. That trend, in turn, is driving the steady rise of global temperatures, which have set record after record in recent months.
Those CO2 levels will soon begin to drop toward their annual minimum as spring triggers the collective inhale of trees and other plant life. But because of the remarkable heights reached this year, the fall minimum, unlike recent years, may not dip below the 400-ppm mark at Mauna Loa.
“I think we’re essentially over for good,” Ralph Keeling, the director of the Mauna Loa CO2 program at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography, said.”
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/18052016/atmospheric-co2-carbon-dioxide-400-ppm-climate-change-keeling-curve
makati1 on Fri, 20th May 2016 10:56 am
Ap, what crops? There will soon be no ‘harvest time’, just a gamble at planting time. Will there be a crop to harvest in a few months? Just one storm when the wheat is ready to harvest can cut crop yield in half or less. I’ve seen whole fields of golden wheat laid over in the mud after on big storm. Frost in May in PA killed a lot of food crops before they even got started. Not to mention the lost peach crop from unusual weather in February. Loss of crops is going to be the norm, not the exception soon.
GregT on Fri, 20th May 2016 10:56 am
“If humanity wishes to preserve a planet similar to that on which civilization developed and to which life on Earth is adapted, paleoclimate evidence and ongoing climate change suggest that CO2 will need to be reduced from [current levels] to at most 350 ppm.” – Dr. James Hansen
“Unless we are able to rapidly turn that around and return to below 350 ppm this century, we risk triggering tipping points and irreversible impacts that could send climate change spinning truly beyond our control.”
So much for staying below the 350ppm maximum safe threshold. It’s been fun……
https://350.org/about/science/
Apneaman on Fri, 20th May 2016 11:00 am
The signs of a crumbling society’s are everywhere. When the group of uber polite humans known as Canadians (Apneaman not included) start acting like high school brats and the Prime Minister, the leader of the country, is elbowing people and swearing at them in the House of Commons, you know they’re in the late stages. This is what cultural collapse looks like in action.
VIDEO – Justin Trudeau’s elbowing incident leaves House in an uproar
‘There is not a parallel in contemporary Canadian history,’ NDP House leader says following Commons uproar
“Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was accused of “manhandling” Opposition whip Gord Brown and elbowing NDP MP Ruth Ellen Brosseau in the House of Commons as MPs gathered for a vote on the government’s assisted-dying bill Wednesday afternoon.
In video from the House, Trudeau is seen walking toward Brown in a crowd of MPs in the Commons aisle, taking his arm in an apparent effort to move Brown toward his seat. While doing so, he encountered Brosseau, who was also standing in the aisle and was seen physically reacting after the contact.
“I was trying to start the vote, the prime minister grabbed my arm. I immediately told the prime minister to let go of me — now,” Brown said in a statement released later. “Immediately afterward, the prime minister went back down the aisle of the House to confront other members of opposition parties.”
“I later told the prime minister he should NOT have gotten out of his seat,” Brown added.”
“NDP House leader Peter Julian accused Trudeau of “manhandling” Brown, as MPs on all sides of the House shouted and Speaker Geoff Regan struggled to regain order.
NDP MP Tracey Ramsey said the prime minister swore as he approached Brown and the opposition benches. “He said ‘Get the bleep out of the way,'” she said, adding Trudeau “violently” grabbed Brown.”
“”What kind of man elbows a woman? It’s pathetic! You’re pathetic!” Mulcair can be heard on tape shouting at Trudeau.”
http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trudeau-conservative-whip-1.3588407
Be prepared for antics like this and more in countries all over.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FNtjksCUMIA
GregT on Fri, 20th May 2016 11:03 am
The first week in May here we saw temperatures in the high 20ºs to low 30ºs C. This morning, back to normal, +9ºC. Gardens certainly got an early boost, but some plants are now showing signs of stress. Most specifically the plum trees. I’m sure they’ll be OK, but not at all a good sign of things to come…….
PracticalMaina on Fri, 20th May 2016 11:05 am
2016 in global politics, CNN meets Jerry Springer
GregT on Fri, 20th May 2016 11:12 am
“When the group of uber polite humans known as Canadians (Apneaman not included) start acting like high school brats and the Prime Minister, the leader of the country”
And to think that people still look up to these ‘institutions’, run by a bunch of incompetent, self-serving, childish, clowns.
Survival Acres on Fri, 20th May 2016 11:20 am
The ridiculous assumptions in this article boggle the mind.
“Food gets a lot of attention in part because we need it to survive, but also because one solution to a food crisis—growing your own—seems doable.”
The reality is very, very different. It’s not “doable” by individuals as claimed. Only a tiny portion of daily calorie intake is actually doable. There is seasonal issues and storage issues and waste / failure issues. The actual amount of food not purchased (grown / eaten) compared to food purchased (eaten) on a yearly basis is quite small. Published here and on Food Assets – Your Food Preparedness Score, How Prepared Are You?
I’ve specifically looked at that topic – can I grow my own? – for many years, searching for others who claim they have and comparing their actual production / consumption / shopping requirements. The facts are we are not able to grow what we actually consume as claimed – we buy a LOT which calls into question the claim made above (again).
The author also assumes that oil consumption halved would still be sufficient to provide essential calories. Not true. He has totally ignored climate change and the effects upon farming activity – and as you pointed out, how much agriculture impacts climate.
In every major storm, the stores are stripped bare in a matter of hours. In any local or regional crisis, the same thing happens. This is because a) people do not store sufficient food now; b) they do not have the skills, time, energy or space to grow their own; c) store bought essentials have a short shelf-life and there is fear they will run out or have already done so. The author does not understand any of this or the actual history of what happens.
He is simply assuming we’re going to right on as before in an energy decline. He’s also ignored transportation and production, distribution and the glaringly obvious, price hikes.
Food will be the #1 issue on EVERYBODY’S mind when we start feeling the full impacts of energy or climate impacts, precisely because it will be in very short supply for every nation on the planet.
Apneaman on Fri, 20th May 2016 11:36 am
Greg, since Canada/Canadians have a pathological need for rules and punishing rule breakers, what do you think is the likely reaction from big gov when TSHTF?
Canada, the Gotcha! Nation
Why do we so relish rules? Because we so love to snare and punish.
“That’s Canada,” I told them. “We make rules, make it really hard to follow the rules, and then fine you for breaking them.”
“In Canada, I explained, the whole point of rules is to slip people up because, for us, rules don’t exist to regulate freedoms, but to create opportunities for punishment — or at least to collect fines, since we believe in user fees rather than taxation.”
“How we set people up for punishment
When addressing the uninitiated, alcohol is a good starting point in helping to explain Canada’s entrapment-like regulatory schemes: alcohol is legal, apparently, but if you go to a park and open a beer, you’ll soon find the place surrounded by police cars.”
http://thetyee.ca/Opinion/2014/08/29/Canada-Gotcha-Nation/
This shit was really amplified when I moved back to Canada after 7 years in Atlanta. For me the most stupid fucking rule and control deal is bathrooms. I have been in the hood in Atlanta many times during the working day and you can walk into any bathroom at Quick Trip (gas station junk food emporium) or at MAC-Donalds (black people pronunciation)- no locks or keys or being “buzzed in”. In Canada you have to ask for a fucking key to take a piss almost every where. What’s that all about? Are they worried Al-Qaeda might hold terror strategy sessions in Canadian bathrooms if left unlocked? Fucking ridiculous.
Davy on Fri, 20th May 2016 11:39 am
“Will Venezuela Be Forced to Embrace the Dollar?”
https://mises.org/blog/will-venezuela-be-forced-embrace-dollar
“Most certainly, Venezuela finds itself in hyperinflation for which there exist only two solutions; drastically reduce spending and the deficit and execute monetary reform or lose the bolivar and adopt the dollar. Both are equally unpopular for the government of Venezuela, but the difference is that if the first option (the deficit) goes unattended, the second (dollarization) is inevitable. Then, one of the most anti-US governments in the world will have to accept the US dollar as its only remedy against hyperinflation.”
ghung on Fri, 20th May 2016 11:40 am
Agreed, SA. The article ignores how integrated and inter-dependent our current food production system is on the complex system of arrangements; economic, industrial, distribution, governmental. It cannot, and will not become a generally standalone system as the rest of our systems begin to fail; not at anywhere near current scale.
That said, distributed and local food production can and will feed a lot of people, albeit, not with the variety, quantity, or regularity we currently enjoy. I expect that rural areas that already have many growers will fair better. Here in Southern Appalachia, I know plenty of folks producing much of what they eat with minimal inputs, and most could scale up. That’s my case; don’t produce most of what we eat, but have the land, infrastructure, and know-how to make it possible to produce much more, especially with extra labor from hungry family members, if/when TSHTF.
Lawfish1964 on Fri, 20th May 2016 1:00 pm
You beat me to it, Davy. Venezuela is a nice preview of things to come here. The government sure as hell isn’t solving the food crisis there. It’s only making it worse. Maduro is likely to be strung up in the coming months.
JuanP on Fri, 20th May 2016 8:04 pm
Thanks Aspera and Ghung! I saved the info since I may undertake the project of converting the tiller or donate a new one as a thank you gift for the beekeeping opportunity at their farm.
Kenz300 on Sun, 22nd May 2016 4:51 am
Too many people……….create too much pollution and demand too many resources….
China made great progress in moving its people out of poverty…….one reason was slowing population growth…..
If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
CLIMATE CHANGE, declining fish stocks, droughts, floods, air water and land pollution, poverty, water and food shortages all stem from the worlds worst environmental problem……. OVER POPULATION.
Yet the world adds 80 million more mouths to feed, clothe, house and provide energy and water for every year… this is unsustainable… and is a big part of the Climate Change problem
Birth Control Permanent Methods: Learn About Effectiveness
http://www.emedicinehealth.com/birth_control_permanent_methods/article_em.htm