Iraq, Venezuela See $75-80 As ‘Fair’ Price For Oil

50 Comments on "Iraq, Venezuela See $75-80 As ‘Fair’ Price For Oil"

rockman on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 3:42 pm 



There is no such thing as a ‘fair price”. There is just the price of oil on any particular day. With respect to oil prices being in equilibrium they are always exactly where the market demands them to be.

Nony on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 4:10 pm 



They’ll take whatever the market will bear. If they could collude and get prices to 150, they would. Drill baby drill kicked their assess. (Just like the Marcellus kicked Rock’s ass out of GOM gas drilling.)

GregT on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 4:31 pm 



“They’ll take whatever the market will bear.”

The free market died Nony, the moment that governments bailed out the TBTF institutions. When the free market died, your magical eCON101 fairy-tale died with them.

Your blind faith is clouding your judgement.

Speculawyer on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 4:44 pm 



I’m sure they view $100/barrel as even more “fair”. Good luck with that.

Plantagenet on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 4:46 pm 



rockman is right, as usual. The market is setting the price of oil—fairness has nothing to do with it.

Nony on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 4:57 pm 



http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/02/usa-refineries-feedstock-kemp-idUSL5N0YO3JA20150602

Rock is wrong, Rock is stupid, Rock is a lightweight:

“Crude produced in the United States cannot generally be exported, except to Canada, under laws enacted following the oil crisis of 1973/74.”

“For domestic shale producers, the increasing mismatch between the crudes being produced in the United States and those preferred by refiners is a strong reason to lift the crude export ban.”

“export ban is not lifted within the next couple of years, substantial discounts between domestic and international crudes could re-emerge and even widen in future.”

P.s. And if I want to hire one of these guys (Rock or John Kemp) to work for me buying and selling crude cargoes, it is a no brainer who I pick:

“John joined Reuters in 2008 as one of its first financial columnists, specialising in commodities and energy. While his main focus is on oil markets, he has written broadly on the emergence of commodities as an asset class, regulatory issues and macroeconomic themes. Before joining Reuters, John spent seven years as a senior analyst for Sempra Commodities (now part of JP Morgan) covering base metals and crude oil. Previously, he worked as an analyst on world trade, banking and financial regulation for consultancy Oxford Analytica.”

Nony on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 4:58 pm 



Greg, you don’t even know the terms of reference to have a discussion:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Not_even_wrong

GregT on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 5:10 pm 



This isn’t a discussion Nony. The free market no longer exists. What remains is the largest speculative bubble in the history of mankind.

Davy on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 5:12 pm 



NOo, I like the reference. Yet, that has nothing to do with Greg. Find a reference on delusional cheerleaders with mental health issues related to cognitive dissonance. Then we can talk about your situation.

GregT on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 5:30 pm 



Nony,

What part of “Crude produced in the United States cannot generally be exported, except to Canada” would you consider to be a ban?

Restriction would be a much better description, regardless of what the talking heads are calling it.

Perk Earl on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 5:46 pm 



“The top oil officials of Iraq, Venezuela and Angola said on Wednesday that $75 to $80 a barrel was now a “fair” price for oil, reflecting an emerging consensus on a possible new equilibrium for volatile markets.”

What happened to we need an oil price of 100-130 dollars? Tell you what, forget about that question, because if these oil producing countries are willing to admit those other numbers were a bunch of bogus hullabaloo then we’ll just hup 2 to make sure oil price falls into the new range of their expectations. LMAO!

Nony on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 7:04 pm 



http://www.ibtimes.com/why-us-bans-crude-oil-exports-brief-history-1562689

Nony on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 7:04 pm 



https://www.google.ca/search?q=crude+export+ban&sourceid=ie7&rls=com.microsoft:en-ca:IE-SearchBox&ie=&oe=&gfe_rd=cr&ei=xpVvVYqAOYuN8Qf9qoGICA&gws_rd=ssl

Nony on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 7:14 pm 



(for Davy)

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/04/28/1087055/-Teabaggers-are-technically-delusional-as-are-many-Republicans#

Davy on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 7:24 pm 



Thanks NOo, I must have some form of bipolar because I can be extremely irritable at times. How about you NOo? Bi-polar or just bi?

Nony on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 7:32 pm 



Only gay for you. The rest is females. 😉

Davy on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 8:02 pm 



OOhh, NOo, you made me blush. After all the mean things I have said to you and you still want to sleep with me. Sounds like peaker S&M.

rockman on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 8:16 pm 



“Crude produced in the United States cannot generally be exported, except to Canada, under laws enacted following the oil crisis of 1973/74.”

According to the EIA the US is currently exporting oil to India and Switzerland. In the last 10 years the US has exported oil to China, Singapore, Spain, Japan, Costa Rica, France, Germany, Italy, Mexico, S Korea and Hong Kong.

But those volumes pail in comparison to the refined products exported yearly MADE FROM ABOUT 1 BILLION BBLS OF US OIL. IOW if the US exported 1 billion bbls of oil per year it would have the same effect on the domestic oil market as exporting those products.

Of course the concept of pulling 1 billion bbls of oil from the US market place for the benefit of foreign consumers is a difficult realty to accept for those trying to convince folks the US is hording oil and hurting prices our producers are getting. We operators are very lucky the govt doesn’t ban refinery exports. If it did that would be an extra 1 billion bbls of oil trapped in the US market place with no buyers. Just imagine how low the refineries would bid down the price of oil if the producers had no place to sell that extra 3 million bbls of oil per day.

Please pay attention: I’ve posted these FACTS before. And as DOCUMENTED FACTS there’s been no attempt to refute them, of course. Maybe we’ll see a direct response this time. But I doubt it. LOL.

Nony on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 8:21 pm 



http://peakoil.com/wp-content/plugins/random-image/Doubtfire_P60989-thumb.jpg

Nony on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 8:23 pm 



refined products are not oil, mudlogger. Pull your head out of your butt. Try selling a cargo of LLS to Germany right now. Just try it.

P.s. Why do you think there is a $$ split?

—-

Really, you are an idiot, here. And in general. Please get me Rockdoc out here. I want a smart Rock to talk to, not a moron.

Nony on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 8:26 pm 



See, oil is what comes out of the ground, Rock. It is a complex natural product full of all sorts of hydrocarbons, a bit of H2S, etc. etc. Gasoline, diesel, jet, propane, etc. are refined products.

Gasoline is NOT oil.

E&P companies make and sell OIL.

Refiners make and sell gasoline.

The export crude (not products!) ban hurts domestic E&P and helps domestic refiners.

Nony on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 8:38 pm 



BTW, Rockman, you STILL have not admitted that you confused annual and monthly Marcellus production changes. Kind of hard to argue with you when you mess something up by a factor of 12 and refuse to admit it.

GregT on Wed, 3rd Jun 2015 9:20 pm 



Go get laid Nony. Hire yourself a hooker. Maybe you’ll stop being such an asshole.

marmico on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 4:33 am 



According to the EIA the US is currently exporting oil to India and Switzerland

True. Please do tell. Is it domestically produced or re-exported Canadian oil?

Nony on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 5:55 am 



Rock,

has been blathering about these minor exceptions like Canadian re-export or stranded AK oil or the like for a while now. totally ignoring the substantial WTI-Brent spread and the fact that his ass will go to jail if he sells a cargo of LLS to Germany tomorrow. I alternate between thinking he is stupid and duplitious. Thinking it is more the former though.

rockman on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 6:13 am 



Greg – Hush. I need Nony here. His lack of response to FACTS I post goes a long way towards helping folks understand the reality. After all where would Abbot had been without Costello? Every straight man needs a fool. LOL

rockman on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 6:50 am 



marmico – “Is it domestically produced or re-exported Canadian oil?” The US was exporting oil to other countries after the “ban” long before the Canadian oils were imported. But, again, not in huge volumes. But it was exported. So when is an “oil export ban” not a ban? When it suites the US govt’s purposes to export oil.

It’s also amazing that some folks like to pretend exporting oil to Canada is somehow different to exporting oil to any other country. According to the EIA just last January the US was exporting oil to Canada at the rate of 183 million bbls per year. Do you think it makes any difference to the US market if all that oil is going to Canada and not China? If so please enlighten us.

But more important: since you’ve expressed an interest in the market dynamics maybe you will do what no one else has done yet: explain how the domestic oil market is less affected by the US exporting the refinery products made from about 1 BILLION BBLS of US oil per year then if that oil were exported unrefined? Granted it would make a huge difference to US refiners. But for us oil producers the effect remains the same: it adds about 1 billion bbls of oil purchases to the buyers’ market. And more to the point: what would domestic oil prices be today if the US govt banned the export of refined products? IOW if we producers lost a market for 1 billion bbls of oil per year how low would the refiners be able to knock down the price we receive for our production?

Some folks seem to forget there is an adversarial relationship between US oil PRODUCERS and US oil REFINERS: We are not one big happy Band of Brothers. LOL.

Anyone who refuses to recognize that the huge POSITIVE effect on the price of domestic oil as a result of exporting all those products would be the same as exporting the oil itself are either hopelessly ignorant or, more likely IMHO, being intentionally obtuse in order to win their argument.

Which also points out another blatant misrepresentation of the dynamics at play: the constant reference to how much oil the US is consuming. Those numbers include the oil being “consumed” by the refineries which is then cracked and the products exported. Thus the US consumes X bbls of oil every day but US retail consumers of refinery products consume significantly less fossil fuels then the US consumes oil.

While obvious some still miss it: US citizens don’t consume oil…they consume refinery products. Refineries consume oil. Those are two very different market places.

Dredd on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 9:13 am 



“The former chairman of Shell has said that investors moving their money out of fossil fuel companies is a rational response to the industry’s “distressing” lack of progress on climate change.

Sir Mark Moody-Stuart, who spent almost four decades at Shell and rose to be its chairman, also said the big oil and gas companies had been calling for a price to be put on CO2 emissions for 15 years but had done little to make it happen.”

(Guardian).

Boat on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 9:39 am 



If refineries couldnt sell refined products to other countries there would be simply less refinery capacity and less imports. Whats so hard to figure.

GregT on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 10:08 am 



“If refineries couldnt sell refined products to other countries there would be simply less refinery capacity and less imports. ”

There would also be a much larger trade deficit, and a greatly reduced standard of living. Or maybe we could just print our way out of that too? Nah, people would eventually catch on.

Nony on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 11:29 am 



Rock is either an idiot or being dishonest. The entire rest of the free world calls it an export ban. yes, there are some small exceptions. But the majority of export is not allowed. and it has a clear economic effect–the spread of WTI and Brent.

You all need to stop riding Rock’s jock. He’s a buffoon. Cancel his subscription to Platt’s.

Nony on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 11:32 am 



Rock: No one is disputing that refined products are allowed to be exported. Any article discusses that. You are like someone discussing cats being allowed without a leash when dogs are the subject. it’s a CRUDE export ban.

Oh…and you STILL haven’t faced up to your Marcellus screwup. Or your Texas RRC lag screwup.

Nony on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 11:36 am 



Again, try selling a cargo of LLS to Germany. Hint: you can’t do it. It’s illegal. They won’t let you.

Nony on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 11:38 am 



And you never faced up to Rockdoc when he called you on your shoot from the hip statements of matrix flow in shales. Producing 5 academic papers against your stance and also his own deep experience as a VP in a major shale exploration company. But then again…oh the Austin Chalk (a different formation, with natural fractures colleing oil from a different source rock!)

GregT on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 11:39 am 



Jeesh Nony,

What exactly is your reason for posting here? Are you attempting to find something, anything at all, just so that you can be an abrasive dick?

Oil is a finite resource. Oil is destroying the environment. Which ever way you slice it, we are in for some extremely troubling times ahead. Your constant baiting, bickering, and name calling, isn’t going to make the slightest difference at all. All you are accomplishing Nony, is adding insult to injury, and making yourself even more miserable than you already are.

Grow up.

nony on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 11:53 am 



Greg not everyone sees things the way you do. If you want a group of fellow thinkers fine. Serious that can be nice and I respect it.

I may be a dick but I routinely cite sources etc. Bringing more content to the table than you or Davey.

anyhow play the ball not the man.

Apneaman on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 11:58 am 



Nony, what are you like the Perry Mason of peakoil.com – obsessed with coaxing confessions out of commenters?

Apneaman on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 12:02 pm 



Nony the nagger, chief confessor of
The Tribunal of the Holy Office of the Inquisition for BAU. Dedicated to forcing doomers to recant their peak predictions for the holy preservation and protection BAU orthodoxy.

Davy on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 12:06 pm 



NOo, you bring to the board worn out redundant information and topics that are part of your cheerleader agenda for all is well. What you bring to the table is routinely squashed by Rock and Short.

You act like an adolescent and they act like grown ups. You can criticize me all you like I am preaching doom. You fail at criticism of Rock and Short which is proven every time they hammer you good that is why you have these frenzied postings.

Grow up NOo. You will have more respect and the nice side effect might be you get more pussy. I am sure between the key board and the monkey slapping your hands are raw.

GregT on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 12:06 pm 



The ‘content’ that you are bringing to the table Nony, is irrelevant. All you are doing is trying to stir up shit. We have enough problems coming down the pipes as it is, without your continued childish banter. The only thing that could be worse for all of us than running out of oil, is the consequences that will happen if we don’t. Both have extremely dire outcomes. One, or the other, is going to happen in your lifetime Nony. Whether you choose to ignore it, or not. Screwing around with other people, isn’t going to change anything at all.

R1verat on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 12:22 pm 



DO NOT, I repeat, DO NOT feed the troll & he will go away.

If no one bites, there is no fun!

Apneaman on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 12:24 pm 



Now the truth emerges: how the US fuelled the rise of Isis in Syria and Iraq

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/jun/03/us-isis-syria-iraq

BobInget on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 12:44 pm 



Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude exporter, raised July pricing for most crude grades sold to Asia amid signs that demand is growing.

Arab Light for buyers in Asia will sell at parity to the regional benchmark, state-owned Saudi Arabian Oil Co. said Thursday in an e-mailed statement. Saudi Aramco raised the official selling prices for that grade and Arab Medium crude to 10-month highs, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Saudi Arabia is producing crude at the highest level in more than three decades. Its strategy to defend its market share is working as “demand is picking up, supply is slowing,” Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said in Vienna on Monday. While there’s a surplus in the global market, things are moving “in the right direction,” he said.

Brent, a global oil benchmark, slumped 48 percent last year as the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries maintained its production target, leaving the job of tackling a global surplus to producers outside the 12-member group. OPEC is expected to keep its output target unchanged at a meeting in Vienna on Friday, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts and traders last month.

Saudi Aramco cut the premium on its Super Light crude to Asia to $1.40 a barrel, the only grade to the region not to be increased. For sales to the U.S., Aramco raised pricing for one grade, Extra Light, to a premium of $3.55 a barrel.

The 60 cents-a-barrel increase in Arab Light pricing to Asia exceeded the gain foreseen by buyers. Saudi Aramco was expected to raise it by 50 cents a barrel, according to a Bloomberg survey of eight refiners and traders.

BobInget on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 1:03 pm 



1) Traders are selling off in anticipation of Friday’s OPEC meeting.

Traders have been wrong every-time this year.
Tomorrow will be no exception.

I’m shocked that anyone here would give credence to the above article’s title: $70/$80.
In today’s world $80 doesn’t cover expenses,
much less financing oil wars across the region.

If anyone bothered to read my stuff you will expect fireworks at Friday’s OPEC meeting.

The MidEast is on fire and you all come to the table with what would have been rational thinking
ten years ago.

Russia, China, Iran are allied against Saudi Arabia, Israel and USA. What could go wrong?

BobInget on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 1:34 pm 



lifted from another energy related board:

“Technology Not Lowering Supply Costs” / “avg well production not improving noticeably last 5 yrs”

Interesting to see quotes like this from within the industry….

from Peyto Exploration:

http://www.peyto.com/ia/Presentation/20140602RoadShow.pdf

Slide 11

“Total supply costs before and after the introduction of horizontal multi-stage fractured wells in 2009 appear to be similar, suggesting the technology doesn’t actually lower supply costs.”

Slide 12

“Our gassy peers haven’t seen a big reduction in their costs either as the technology has been adopted over the last several years.”

This updated presentation (5/21/15) shows C$6.21 for Canadian Gassers in 2014 – slide 12:

http://www.peyto.com/ia/Presentation/20150520MainPresentation.pdf
**************************************************************************

It’s one thing when labor costs are reduced by automation.

Nony on Thu, 4th Jun 2015 4:03 pm 



http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/01/opec-meeting-shale-kemp-idUSL5N0YN2Q620150601?feedType=RSS&feedName=everything&virtualBrandChannel=11563

Nony on Fri, 5th Jun 2015 5:48 am 



Who you gonna trust? IPAA or the Internet mudlogger who can’t even read numbers off a chart?

http://www.ipaa.org/wp-content/uploads/downloads/2014/08/Crude-Oil-Exports-Fact-Sheet-07-17-2014.pdf

BAN, ba..ban ban ban.

Davy on Fri, 5th Jun 2015 6:19 am 



NOo, You are so naive. Your just a boy wonder cheerleading a empty dying way of life. I bet you wear tight pants and sing at the top of your voice in the shower to your top 40 favorites. I imagine you take 45 min showers because in your mind that is good for the economy.

Rock is a seasoned insider who works for a living. He knows the real story. I would trust him any day over you with my money. Your just out for yourself IOW a typical snake oil salesman.

Nony on Fri, 5th Jun 2015 6:58 am 



Trust Rockdoc. Rockman is a joke.

GregT on Fri, 5th Jun 2015 10:49 am 



Nony has become nothing more than a pathetic little troll.