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Page added on April 18, 2018
IMF: World Economy Expands Next 2 Years; Growth Fades After 2020
International Monetary Fund experts say the global economy will continue growing well for the next two years, but expect expansion to slow after 2020.
IMF research director Maurice Obstfeld said Tuesday fading trade could hurt growth and, “The first shots in a potential trade war have now been fired.” He repeated a warning the international rules that nurtured “unprecedented” economic growth after World War II are at risk of being “torn apart.”
Many economists worry that Trump administration efforts to slap tariffs on China and other U.S. trading partners are sparking retaliatory taxes on U.S.-made products that raise the cost of trading and hurt demand, stifling economic growth. Administration officials disagree, and insist their trade and tax policies will boost growth and not spark soaring deficits.
Trade squabbles are a key issue this week as top economic officials and experts gather from 189 nations in Washington for meetings of the IMF and the World Bank.
Obstfeld and his colleagues are also worried that efforts to stimulate economic recovery from the 2008 recession, such as low interest rates and massive purchases of bonds, are now ending. They put the current global growth rate at 2.9 percent, and say this moment of good growth is the time to make changes in tax and other policies that will help economies weather inevitable future downturns.
Growth in advanced economies like the United States is hampered by an aging population with larger numbers of people retiring and leaving the workforce. Slow growth in productivity and high levels of government and private debt are also threats to future growth.
The IMF predicts the world’s second-largest economy, China, will expand at a 6.6 percent rate this year and 6.4 percent in 2019. The global lender says China will continue changing its economic focus from investment and manufacturing toward consumption and services, but warns that a rising debt clouds the nation’s medium-term outlook.
14 Comments on "IMF: World Economy Expands Next 2 Years; Growth Fades After 2020"
Boat on Wed, 18th Apr 2018 4:14 pm
Efficiency, smaller, better, cheaper may be bad for GDP but good for consumers, good for pollution. Zero percent growth is fine as products are improved with tech.
Killing coal is an example. Less co2, cheaper or stagnent electricity, fewer health care costs, better quality of life all equal a shrinking GDP.
Boat on Wed, 18th Apr 2018 4:22 pm
Shrinking productivity is great. Just means it’s getting harder for tech to improve products and wasted inefficient energy use. There is some low hanging fruit left. FF for one.
makati1 on Wed, 18th Apr 2018 4:53 pm
Boat, you do know that the Stock Market Casino lives for growth. Contraction is the death of capitalism. What are you going to do without an income? Can’t buy ‘cheaper’ without money.
I do agree that it is a good thing because it will be the end of the empire. The Us will be openly 3rd world.
makati1 on Wed, 18th Apr 2018 6:31 pm
““The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and twin emergencies of the Great Depression and World War II.” – Strauss & Howe – The Fourth Turning …
Those who attempt to dismiss this generational theory by calling it doom porn or saying it is impossible to predict the future are revealing their fears rather than arguing based on facts or substance. …
The common people are being manipulated by the “powers that be” though propaganda, mistruths, distractions, iGadgets, hero worship, irrelevant social justice warrior issues, the illusion of political choices, and being lured into debt servitude by the banking cabal and their mega-corporation co-conspirators. …
The risk of catastrophe will be very high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically, or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort–in other words, a total war.”
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2018/04/18/winter-is-coming-part-three/
It’s going to be an exciting adventure for those who live there. Prepare!
Davy on Wed, 18th Apr 2018 6:50 pm
Billy 3rd world, the dangers are worse in China.
Boat on Wed, 18th Apr 2018 7:43 pm
Mak
Did you know some companies make more money than others? Some grow faster. As long as there are humans the better companies will attract money. Your tip for the day.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 18th Apr 2018 8:04 pm
Madkat
Sorry the entire global economy is going to collapse. I have showed you six peer reviewed studies that prove this beyond a doubt. You are easily duped because you hope. You are a paranoid schizophrenic like clogg.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 18th Apr 2018 8:08 pm
U.S. Pension Fund Collapse Isn’t a Distant Prospect. It Could Come in 5 Years
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-18/collapse-of-public-pension-funds-is-no-longer-a-distant-prospect
MASTERMIND on Wed, 18th Apr 2018 8:29 pm
How Obama’s Lawyers Gave John Bolton the Keys to Armageddon
https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premium-how-obama-s-lawyers-gave-john-bolton-the-keys-to-armageddon-1.6011850
makati1 on Wed, 18th Apr 2018 8:30 pm
MM, sorry but the West is going to collapse and feel the most pain. Lumping ‘the world’ into one bucket is the distraction that your masters want you to see. The Us imports almost everything it needs. Most countries are not in that dangerous positing. Yes, there will be some pain and adjustment in the Ps, but not a catastrophe like you want to believe. Trade will continue.
What don’t you understand about the FACT that there are about 190 counters in the world today. 190+ DIFFERENT financial, government, and globalization systems/needs. 190+ DIFFERENT economies and debt situations. Do you think Russia will suffer as much as the Us? China? Iran? The Ps? Better think about that AFTER you learn more about the current world situation. Too much Us MSM propaganda in your education. Not enough experience with the real world.
makati1 on Wed, 18th Apr 2018 8:32 pm
“U.S. Pension Fund Collapse Isn’t a Distant Prospect. It Could Come in 5 Years”
It could happen tomorrow. All it will take is a Us Stock Market crash. Five years is very, very optimistic.
MASTERMIND on Wed, 18th Apr 2018 8:47 pm
Madkat
Sorry the US makes up 25 percent of global GDP. And the worlds financial system and markets. If we go down. It will cause a cascading collapse! The whole world is going to be running out of oil soon. Read the German Army study..Read the limits to growth…Six studies you ignore. You have zero!
https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
makati1 on Wed, 18th Apr 2018 9:14 pm
Sorry MM: Better research recent info.
2017 US GDP ~18% of world GDP (nominal)
2017 US GDP ~16% of world GDP (PPP)
https://www.statista.com/statistics/268173/countries-with-the-largest-gross-domestic-product-gdp/
https://knoema.com/atlas/ranks/GDP-based-on-PPP
You may note that China’s PPP GDP was ~18+%. The Us share of world GDP has been shrinking for years and will soon be less than China’s by any measure. ‘Ability to purchase’ will determine who suffers the most. China and Russia, and many other countries, are holding real money, gold. The Us may not have any. Keep trying to promote your irrational “everyone must suffer if I do” bullshit. It’s laughable.
Antius on Thu, 19th Apr 2018 7:06 am
The recession may come sooner rather than later. The Eurozone economies are showing signs of slowing:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-18/germany-recession-indicator-flashes-yellow
The Chinese stock market is showing signs of recessionary pressure:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-19/its-ominous-sign-trader-reveals-nightmare-facing-chinas-leaders
More than half of China’s millionaires are looking for ways to leave the country. Strict capital controls have thus far prevented a collapse in the value of the Yuan. But ultimately, China is likely to go the same way as Japan.
The US is in the midst of an unprecedented credit bubble:
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-18/failing-prepare-preparing-fail