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Page added on September 10, 2016
If Everything’s Doing So Great, How Come I’m Not?
We’re ceaselessly told/sold that the U.S. economy is doing phenomenally well in our current slow-growth world — generating record corporate profits, record highs in the S&P 500 stock index, and historically low unemployment (4.9% in July 2016).
While GDP growth is somewhat lackluster by historical standards—less than 2% in 2016—it’s growth nonetheless. And the rate of consumer-price inflation is hovering around 1%; negligible by historical standards.
But this uniformly positive statistical view of the U.S. economy raises a question among those not in the top 0.1%: If everything’s going so great, how come I’m not?
Whether it’s struggling to keep up with the rising cost of living, a 0% return on savings, working longer hours while real wages stagnate, scrimping to pay back education loans, despairing at the abuses of power in our banking and political systems, or lamenting the loss of nourishing social interaction in our increasingly isolated and digital lifestyle — most “regular” people find their own personal experiences to be at odds with the rosy “Everything is awesome!” narrative trumpeted by our media.
The Scorecard
To get a more concrete understanding of this gap, let’s establish a scorecard we can individually fill in to make an assessment of just how well we’re doing.
The key point about such a scorecard is this: We can only optimize what we measure. If we don’t measure (for example) leisure time and well-being in our assessment of Are we doing better than we were 10 years ago? then those issues simply aren’t considered.
And this is the flaw in using broad, easily-fudged statistics such as the unemployment rate as the primary measures of how great we’re doing (or not). What actually matters in life—our experiences, our stress level, our leisure time, our well-being and our sense of security, to name a few—is completely ignored by statistics such as GDP and unemployment.
I propose that a more accurate assessment requires responding to this list: Are you better off than you were 10 years ago in 2007, and 16 years ago in 2000?
- Has the purchasing power of my earnings increased or declined since 2007 and 2000? That is, do my monthly earnings buy more healthcare insurance, college tuition, shelter and other goods and services than they did 10 and 16 years ago?
Here are a few charts to help you answer accurately:
These charts make it clear that real income (i.e. purchasing power) has declined markedly while big-ticket costs such as healthcare have skyrocketed for the majority of American households.
- Is the quantity of packaged goods you buy now the same or less than in 2007 and 2000? That is, does the package that once contained 16 ounces now contain 14 ounces or even less?
- Has the quality of goods and services you purchase now better or worse than the quality you received for the same share of your earnings 10 and 16 years ago? Do appliances last as long as they did then, or do they last longer? Do electronic devices last longer than they did in the past? How about furniture, clothing, etc.?
- Does your children’s education better prepare them for a fast-changing economy now compared to 10/16 years ago?
- How much shadow-work (to use Catherine Austin Fitts’ apt phrase) do you have to do now compared to 10/16 years ago? By shadow-work we mean work that was once done by businesses or the government that you must now perform yourself: pump your own gas, etc.
- How much time do you now spend trying to fix administrative errors and things that are broken: incorrect billing, computer patches that don’t fix the problem, etc.?
- Is your overall health and well-being better than it was 10/16 years ago, or worse? (Of course we have to allow for the advance of age, but the question is about how you feel and whether you now must deal with chronic diseases, pain management, etc. that you didn’t have 10 years ago.)
- Is the quality of your healthcare better or worse than 10/16 years ago, in terms of cost, waiting time, co-pays, accuracy of diagnoses, ability to book an appointment in the near future, etc.?
- Is your local infrastructure better or worse than it was 10/16 years ago? Are the roads better maintained, the trains and buses cleaner, the service personnel friendlier and more helpful?
- Are your local government services more or less costly than they were 10/16 years? Have fees for water utilities, garbage pickup, license renewals, parking tickets, etc. gone up about 1% or 2% annually, in line with official inflation, or have they leaped by 5% or more year after year?
- Are you receiving more government services for your increased property taxes? If so, precisely what services have been improved/added as a result of your paying higher property taxes?
- Do you feel the safety and security of your neighborhood has increased or decreased? Do you safer walking home at midnight or less safe compared to 10/16 years ago?
- Have the odds of a secure retirement with an income that will easily keep up with real-world inflation (around 7% annually) increased or decreased compared to 2007/2000?
- Has your income on retirement money—IRAs, etc.–in bonds and savings accounts risen or declined?
- Do you have more leisure time or less leisure time than 10/16 years ago? (Subtract the time spent on social media.)
- Do you have more vacation time, and more money set aside to actually take a vacation with your family compared to 10/16 years ago?
- Are you sleeping more or less than 10/16 years ago? (Sleep is a good indicator of health—poor sleep is highly correlated with poor health and chronic diseases.)
- If you liquidated your stock holdings and retirement funds invested in stocks, are you wealthier (adjusted for inflation) than you were in 2000 and 2007?
- Have you been able to save more annually now than you could 10/16 years ago?
- Has your household debt load (student loans, mortgages, vehicle loans, consumer debt, etc.) increased or decreased since 2000 and 2007?
- If your equity in real estate, stocks and bonds has increased, what (if any) improvements to the household did you fund with this “wealth effect”?
- In terms of income, equity and exposure to risk, are you more financially secure or less financially secure than 10/16 years ago?
- If you are more secure financially, how much of this financially security is the result of family gifts or an inheritance? How much is the result of higher real earnings? How much is the result of rising equity in real estate, stocks and bonds?
- Do you feel more or less stress due to overwork, time pressure, financial worries, etc. compared to 10/16 years ago?
- Are the people you associate with—colleagues, friends, neighbors, extended family members—experiencing higher levels of stress due to health crises, financial insecurity, overwork, etc., or are they generally experiencing less stress and chronic anxiety?
- Do you have more time and money to invest in self-care (enrichment classes, concerts, fitness, hobbies etc.) or less time/more time for free-ranging, leisurely conversations with friends?
- Is housing more affordable (to rent or buy) or less affordable than it was in 2007 and 2000?
- Do you have more close friends or fewer close friends than you did 10/16 years ago? (A close friend is defined as someone who is always welcome to sleep in your guest room or on your sofa, someone with whom you can speak openly and truthfully about difficult emotional/financial issues.)
- Do you feel your prospects—for greater financial security, higher earnings, career advancements, personal well-being, health, fitness and ability to help family and friends—are better or worse compared to 2000 and 2007?
- Do you feel the prospects of your children and grandchildren are brighter or dimmer compared to 2007 and 2000?
If you’re healthier, wealthier, more secure, have more leisure, more disposable income, less debt, a wider circle of intimate friends and are confident the future holds better prospects than it did 10/16 years ago, then —Congratulations!—you’re doing great. And if you’re still in the work force, you’re in the top 5% of American households:
Alternatively, if you’re retired with multiple ample pensions and/or you sold the modest home you bought decades ago for $100,000 for $1,000,000 or more, and you live in an upscale neighborhood, then you very likely feel that life is good and the future is bright.
This sort of security puts you in the top 10% of the nation’s households.
If you paid off the mortgage, have decent healthcare insurance and live in a place where services are available and affordable and you have a secure income, then you probably feel things are going well, too. This puts you in the top 20%.
But as many of you know from personal experience, a great many people who appear to “have it all” are struggling with financial crises, health crises, chronic stress due to financial insecurity, etc.
Some relatively modest percentage of American households are doing great—the thin slice that owns most of the nation’s wealth and thus has benefited from rising real estate, stock and bond prices. Another modest slice is doing well because they have secure positions in academia or the government, or if retired, draw ample pensions and healthcare benefits and have paid off their mortgage. A tiny slice has become multi-millionaires in the latest tech boom.
While the view might be great from the top of the wealth/income pyramid, it takes a special kind of self-serving myopia to ignore the reality that the bottom 80% (or bottom 95%, depending on what you measure) are not doing so well.
In Part 2: The Keys To Prosperity, we provide guidance on strategies for how those 80-95% of us can position our efforts, our capital, and our mindsets in order to make the major macro trends in play work to our favor, and secure a prosperous future.
28 Comments on "If Everything’s Doing So Great, How Come I’m Not?"
Apneaman on Sat, 10th Sep 2016 6:04 pm
Again, as long as you let the corporate state and your brain washed peers define what “doing well” means then you are a slave no matter your income. Trying to keep up with the Jones is exactly what they want. That is what marketing is all about. It has amplified the humans inherent need to fit in to a level that can only be described as pathological. This is why we see the increase in suicides in white middle aged males who can no longer afford to keep up with their peers – they lost their social standing which was based on income and consuming. They have been doing this, warping us, since we were babies. It takes some effort to get over it, but it’s worth it. I used to buy into some of it, but I have gotten to the point that if you’re not signing my cheque or blowing me, then I don’t care what you think. The culture has become poison, so I reject most of it and the phoney plastic people it produces. I can’t escape my culture, but I don’t have to participate in it 100%. Pay the tax, don’t fuck with people and mind my own business. I’m like a ghost, documenting and commenting on them cluelessly consuming their way to extinction as fast as they possibly can.
makati1 on Sat, 10th Sep 2016 6:37 pm
“Are you better off than you were 10 years ago?”
Answer: YEP!
I have shed about 80% of my accumulated “stuff” and relocated to a place much nicer than the Philly burbs where I lived then.
I pay zero taxes other than sales and owe no one.
I own no vehicles or real estate.
I have no insurances or fees to pay.
I am retired and in very good health.
I have several non-taxable income streams and secure assets.
The rest of my life is mine to spend as I choose, not as some boss, bank or government agency decides. I now watch the world self-destruct ever faster and wonder who will go first. Not how or where I expected to spend my last decades, but none of know that do we?
Go Speed Racer on Sat, 10th Sep 2016 8:06 pm
Hell no. Not better off. The incomes stagnated because the corporations got into offshore labor where there are no regulations. Blew up the boiler at your aluminum foil factory, and killed 15? No problem, throw the bodies in a pit in the parking lot, push dirt over, pave with asphalt and add parking lot stripes. Not a dime in penalties and do it again. Pay them all $1 a day, move your factory to a communist country, and call it patriotism.
The surviving USA middle class are scrambling on stagnant income while debts stay piled up. Don’t see the long lost high school friends because they are scrambling hard as I am.
Trump is the worst presidential candidate in history, and he will wreck the whole country if elected. but vote for him cause the state of horrors the formerly middle class is in, does not need a shrill pathological bitch doing business deals on how to make the most money off our exhausted broke sleepless expended formerly middle class dead carcasses, while bringing in all the foreigners to replace us and buy our houses.
makati1 on Sat, 10th Sep 2016 9:48 pm
GSR, KIllery will take you into a nuclear war with Russia. Is that better than lowerimg YOUR living standards a bit? Welcome to the 3rd world, citizen. LMAO
makati1 on Sat, 10th Sep 2016 10:04 pm
“Some believe World War III has already started, most dispute that. It takes no more than a spark to light the fire and currently there are a lot of sparks flying around.”
WW1 started wit ha 19 year old and two bullets.
WW2 started with Germany’s depression after the US made them pay huge retributions.
WW3 is already underway on the financial front and is edging closer to the hot front.
“To confirm the state of the world today, the Global Peace Index states, and I quote – “There are now only ten countries in the world that are free from conflict”.”
Britain’s Daily Telegraph: Here’s how World War Three could start tomorrow
America’s NewYork Times simply entitled: “World War Three”
Canada’s Global Research: World War III in The Pipeline? US and European Allies Threaten Russia
Australia News Network: World War 3 Update: US Warns China at G20 Summit
Russia’s RT: China & Russia’s G20 message: Confrontation with West not our desire
Iran – Press TV: World War III a coin flip if Hillary elected
Germany Der Spiegel: War against Russia
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-10/disturbing-signs-global-conflict-continue-gather-pace
No place to run. No place to hide…
Go Speed Racer on Sat, 10th Sep 2016 11:45 pm
Better to let Trump blow it all up with nukes in a pissing contest with Iran, than listen to Hillary’s shrill bitching about how she hates white males, coming from the pulpit of Air Force One.
Hillary would be worse than a call-to-mecca every hourout of a 2 foot megaphone on the side of the 7-11. Can’t vote for that.
makati1 on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 12:43 am
You could always leave the US, GSR. I cannot hear anything from there that I don’t access on the internet. Most of the rest of the world does not care what happens in America any more. They just want the US to stop meddling in their affairs. The sooner the US collapse’ the better for the other 7 billion of us. Tomorrow would be just fine. Go for it America! lol
Davy on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 7:36 am
“Deutsche Bank: The US May Now Be In A Recession”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-10/deutsche-bank-us-may-now-be-recession
“In the current business cycle, margins peaked at $18,752 per worker in Q4 2014. This compares to a ratio of $16,487 per worker as of Q2 2016. Margins have fallen because corporate profits have declined -6.3% annualized over the past six quarters, while private sector job growth over this period has been very steady at around 2.1%.” And before we get the usual “but… but… you must exclude energy” complaints (we wonder why: it is becoming increasingly obvious that oil is not going back to $100 so the new normOil may well be crude at $50 or lower, which means including all energy-related data), here it the punchline: it’s excluded.”
“This means that recent overall margin compression has had less to do with the strengthening dollar and depressed energy prices, and more to do with weak domestic demand coupled with near-zero growth in nonfarm business productivity…. Not surprisingly, the decline in profit growth has occurred alongside a deceleration in domestic demand. The year-over-year growth rate of real final sales to private domestic purchasers peaked at 3.9% in Q1 2015 and has since slowed to 2.3% as of last quarter.”
“So why are margins important? Because as we noted in our June note, margins always lead an economic contraction and always peak in advance of a recession: there has not been one business cycle in the post-WWII era where this has not been the case…. The reason margins are a leading indicator is simple: When corporate profitability declines, a pullback in spending and hiring eventually ensues.”
“In light of collapsing productivity, declining domestic demand, and sliding growth of real final sales, how has the US corporate sector avoided a full-blown recession so far? Simple: it has been loading up on debt to mask the income statement effects of declining demand. As DB calculates, the corporate sector has taken on a substantial amount of debt in the current business cycle. Nonfinancial corporate debt has increased by $4.5 trillion from its trough in Q4 2009….. based on nominal corporate balance sheets, the US is already effectively in a recession – the only thing preventing the hammer from falling are record low interest rates, keeping interest coverage ratios at all time lows….. the average and median lead times between the peak in margins and the onset of recession are nine and eight quarters, respectively. This would imply… the second half of 2016….. with corporate debt-to-GDP ratio at recession highs, it suggests that imbalances have built up to the point where there is absolutely no capacity for tighter financial conditions.”
“Summarizing all of the above: based on corporate balance sheets and income statements, the US economy may be in a recession as of this moment… and if it isn’t, even just one rate hike by the Fed, either in the September 21 meeting or in December, will assure that the backbone of corporate America, already straining under record debt and tumbling profits, will finally snap.”
Davy on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 10:13 am
Hillary is not feeling well today:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-09-11/hillary-clinton-reportedly-suffers-medial-episode-rushed-away-ground-zero-fox-news
Go Speed Racer on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 11:11 am
Cranky old power mad bitch, farts dust, passes out.
Cloggie on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 11:27 am
The plot thickens around Claire… um I mean Hillary.
Wonder who will replace her: Biden or Sanders?
Cloggie on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 11:31 am
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/hillary-clinton-kreislaufprobleme-bei-9-11-feier-a-1111854.html
US-Präsidentschaftskandidatin Hillary Clinton hat die Feierlichkeiten zum Gedenken an den 11. September vorzeitig verlassen. Sie habe sich wegen der enormen Hitze unwohl gefühlt und sich im nahegelegenen Apartment ihrer Tochter ausgeruht, hieß es in einem Statement ihres Wahlkampfteams. Inzwischen gehe es ihr aber wieder besser…Inzwischen hat Clinton die Wohnung ihrer Tochter wieder verlassen, berichten US-Medien. “Ich fühle mich großartig”, sagte sie Reportern und winkte der wartenden Menge zu.
Hillary’s team has released a statement that Hillary didn’t feel well because of the heat, that she went to the apartment of her daughter, but meanwhile left again while stating to reporters that she felt “great”.
Sure: she steps out of the car and immediately is struck by an enormous heat wave, bringing her to her knees. She obviously fainted and not from the heat.
Cloggie on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 5:09 pm
Today 15 years ago and no 9/11 topic, much to the delight of ghung… and probably many more.
Hush, hush.
makati1 on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 7:49 pm
“Tent Cities Full Of Homeless People Are Booming In Cities All Over America As Poverty Spikes”
“… the number of homeless children in this country has risen by 60 percent since the last recession, and Poverty USA says that a total of 1.6 million children slept either in a homeless shelter or in some other form of emergency housing at some point last year.”
“The following list of major tent cities that have become so well-known and established that they have been given names comes from Wikipedia…”
Camp Hope, Las Cruces, New Mexico [1]
Camp Quixote, Olympia, Washington State[2]
Camp Take Notice, Ann Arbor, Michigan[3]
Dignity Village, Portland, Oregon
Opportunity Village, Eugene, Oregon
Maricopa County Sheriff’s Tent City, Phoenix, Arizona
New Jack City and Little Tijuana, Fresno, California[2]
Nickelsville, located in Seattle[2][4]
Right 2 Dream Too, Portland, Oregon[5]
River Haven,[6] Ventura County, California[7][8]
Safe Ground, Sacramento, California[2]
The Jungle, San Jose, California[2]
Temporary Homeless Service Area (THSA), Ontario, California[2]
Tent City (100+ residents) of Lakewood, New Jersey[9][10]
Tent City, Avenue A and 13th Street, Lubbock, Texas[11]
Tent City, New Jersey forest[12]
Tent City, Bernalillo County, New Mexico[13]
Tent City, banks of the American River, Sacramento, California[14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22]
Tent City 3, Seattle
Tent City, Chicago, Illinois [1]
Tent City 4, eastern King County outside of Seattle
The Point, where the Gunnison River and Colorado River meet[23]
The Village of Hope and Community of Hope, Fresno, California[2]
Transition Park, Camden, New Jersey
Tent City, Fayette County, Tennessee, [2]
Camp Unity Eastside, Woodinville, WA [3]
China Hat Road, Bend, Oregon
“As this new economic downturn continues to accelerate, our homelessness boom is going to spiral out of control. Pretty soon, there will be tent cities in virtually every community in America.”
Keep pointing that finger, Americans but keep in mind that 3 are pointing right back at you…
makati1 on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 7:50 pm
Ref for above:
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/tent-cities-full-of-homeless-people-are-booming-in-cities-all-over-america-as-poverty-spikes
Sissyfuss on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 8:08 pm
Hillary is pregnant with Trump’s love child. They’ve settled on the name Damian.
Boat on Sun, 11th Sep 2016 10:20 pm
mak,
With all that poverty and homelessness in the US, why do you blame those Americans for using to much energy.
Cloggie on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 4:49 am
Rumours about top DNC meeting to consider options replacing the Hillarator:
http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/11/report-dems-consider-replace-hillary-clinton/
This is your October surprise one month earlier.
Who is going to replace her? My money is on Biden. Sanders too much of loose canon outsider. A leftist Trump.
Sissyfuss on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 8:21 am
Clarg, Breitbart is now the official mouthpiece of the Trump campaign. Consider your source.
Cloggie on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 8:27 am
Sissy, you comment is not too bright.
Breitbart links to a tweet by a David Shuster, a media leftie with an ethnic background anything but German, who says that DNC bigwigs could contemplate a replacement.
Has nothing to do with Breitbart.
If Hitler says that 2 x 2 = 4, that doesn’t necessarily means that it is untrue.
Sissyfuss on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 9:26 am
Cloogless, Trump hired Steve Bannon as campaign CEO from the Breitbart staff so whether it was a leftist reporter is not the point. Breitbart is now the official shill for all things Trumpian and will print anything they find that is negative towards Clinton. Unfortunately their resource base is endless.
Cloggie on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 9:29 am
Sure Siss…
Let’s turn away from Trump shill Breitbart to Clinton shill CNN:
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/11/politics/hillary-clinton-health-2016-election/index.html
Apneaman on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 9:50 am
Anyone who reads Breitbart and then “shares” their links is clueless fucking moron or Dutch.
JUST ONE OPINION on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 10:02 am
After reading this article, I noticed there are many comments about what would the president do in our immediate future. Deciding to launch nuclear weapons was one of the comments. Since the president is a mostly symbolic figure and has little input on the decision, I doubt there would be a nuclear launch from the US or any world power. These world powers all realize when a weapon is launched to a so called enemy, there is no recovery for anyone at all.
Cloggie on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 10:04 am
Even your “insults” suck.
I am perfectly happy of being called “Dutch” as an explanation for posting revealing links that point towards a rapid downfall of your warmongering heroine.
Logic is not your forte, right apey?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EeGlEJJBWIU
(Evaluation of the collapse and consequences)
Cloggie on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 10:13 am
@Just one opinion
Exactly right, the only function of the president is to give the sheeple the idea that democracy is for real and that their choice matters.
After the election however the president is expected to play golf 24/7 and only shows up if his/her handlers, the David Axelrod’s of this world, tell him to.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Axelrod
The president doesn’t think, doesn’t write, doesn’t order, he is merely a tool for the photo-opps, for the hand-shaking, the State of the Union, the funny White House Correspondence dinner, etc.
The thinking and planning is done by the CFR and other political bodies and the media are there to broadcast the decisions. The president merely reads out loud what is pre-written on a piece of paper, pretending it is his decision.
It isn’t.
If the upcoming election irrelevant? No, it isn’t. The president is still the president, so the entire sham system no longer works if an intruder and system outsider shows up, like the Donald, who has an agenda of his own. The American Putin.
Apneaman on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 11:44 am
A ghost fleet of cargo ships with nowhere to go is running out of food and water
“Currently, Hanjin’s fleet is carrying roughly $14.5 billion dollars worth of cargo and its inability to reach port is considered a significant threat to the global logistics network.”
http://www.businessinsider.com/hanjin-shipping-bankrupt-ships-south-korea-2016-9
Apneaman on Mon, 12th Sep 2016 11:48 am
US teens often forced to trade sex work for food, study finds
Teens in low-income communities, overlooked by childhood nutrition policies, do sex work, save school lunches, sell drugs and join gangs for food, report says
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/sep/12/teens-america-hunger-food-poverty
Don’t worry, it’ll get worse.