Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on September 3, 2017
If $26 oil doesn’t do us in, 52 inches of rain won’t either
Frenzied motorists scrambled to find gasoline in Dallas-Fort Worth as reports of imminent shortages spread on social media, fueled by refinery and pipeline shutdowns along the energy-rich Texas Gulf Coast.
Storm-weary homeowners and renters by the thousands fled water-filled properties with whatever they could carry, not knowing what would be left of their belongings when floodwaters receded.
Restaurants, boat storage centers and other small businesses battered by winds topping 130 mph emerged as twisted heaps of metal and plywood in coastal towns where Hurricane Harvey began its roughly 400-mile path of destruction.
Those searing images from Harvey’s time in the spotlight also represent the layered economic impact left behind by one of the nation’s worst natural disasters. Just as the stubborn storm refused to go away for nearly a week, it’ll take months for its economic toll to fully unfold.
Here’s where that damage stands nine days after Harvey made landfall.
Overall impact
As the storm moved up the coast from Corpus Christi in South Texas to Lake Charles in Louisiana, predictions of its dire consequences quickly rose from $10 billion into the tens of billions.
By the end of its run, the storm’s projected tally was on par with the country’s previous costliest natural disaster, Hurricane Katrina.
AccuWeather founder Joel Myers forecasts Harvey and its aftermath will end up costing $190 billion — the highest estimate to date. He takes into account factors not considered in other predictions, everything from supply chain interruptions to spoiled food.
“This is the costliest and worst natural disaster in American history,” Myers said in a video posted on the forecasting service’s website. “Parts of Houston … will be uninhabitable for weeks and possibly months due to water damage, mold, disease-ridden water and all that will follow this 1,000-year flood.”
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said he expects disaster relief needed for rebuilding to exceed $125 billion, topping Katrina. Federal spending to restore New Orleans post-Katrina has been estimated at $120 billion.
Other economists are more conservative in their estimates. Risk-modeling company RMS puts the damage at $90 billion. Moody’s Analytics estimates the toll will be $86 billion to $108 billion.
Energy industry
With Texas’ Gulf Coast serving as a global center for the oil, gas and chemical industries, the temporary shutdown of major refineries and pipelines was most immediately visible to consumers at the gas pump.
By Friday afternoon, the spike in gas prices drove the national average to $2.56 a gallon — an increase of 18 cents in a week, according to GasBuddy. Travel club AAA said prices jumped at least 10 cents a gallon in 24 hours in Texas, Ohio, Georgia and the Mid-Atlantic states.
The nationwide average was already higher than most experts predicted as a worst-case scenario when flooding from the devastating storm began knocking out refineries, including the nation’s largest in Port Arthur. The low-lying coastal region supplies nearly a third of U.S. oil refining capacity.
Exxon Mobil and Valero also temporarily closed major refineries in Baytown and Corpus Christi.
Two leading price-forecasting analysts, GasBuddy’s Patrick DeHaan and Tom Kloza of the Oil Price Information Service, now see the national average peaking as high as $2.75 a gallon in the next few days.
After panic over shortages spread across Dallas-Fort Worth Thursday and into Friday, some North Texas gas stations raised prices above $3 a gallon. Motorists wanting to top off their tanks before the traditionally travel-heavy Labor Day weekend waited in long lines and drained many stations of their supplies.
Lines could pop up next in states in the Southeast and East Coast because those areas get much of their gasoline from the Colonial pipeline that taps into refineries in Texas and Louisiana. That pipeline wasn’t expected to resume normal operations until Sunday. On top of that, analysts said some gasoline from the Northeast is being diverted to Florida, and gasoline exports are contributing to higher prices.
How long this lasts will depend on how quickly the oil giants can bring refineries back to full capacity and get new supplies to stations.
Real estate & construction
Harvey is going to further pinch Texas’ already tight housing market. Storm damage will add to labor shortages of labor and push up prices on building materials as Gulf Coast communities recover.
Thousands of homes and apartments were either destroyed or damaged. Before the storm, Texas was the country’s largest homebuilding market.
Now, builders and construction workers who were already struggling to keep up with the state’s demand for new housing are going to face the challenge of replacing and repairing what Harvey wrecked.
“The counties in the state disaster area represent approximately 4 percent of nationwide single-family construction and 32 percent of Texas new home construction,” said Robert Dietz, chief economist for the National Association of Home Builders.
Real estate research firm CoreLogic estimates damage to homes in the 70 affected counties in Texas and Louisiana will end up costing $25 billion to $37 billion. Most of that will be uninsured losses from wind and flood damage, and storm surge.
Damage to apartment complexes, office buildings, retail stores and industrial facilities in the Houston area will add up to as much as $55 billion, according to CoStar Group Inc. It determined that more than a quarter of all commercial property in the Houston area was affected by flooding.
Land, sea & air travel
Harvey’s torrential rains forced the closing of Houston’s two major airports and the all-important Port of Houston for nearly a week. Transportation into and out of the nation’s fourth largest city was snarled and limited by flooding that swamped highways in all directions.
“There’s nothing being sold, nothing being manufactured and nothing being shipped in a city with a $500 billion economy,” Patrick Jankowski of the Greater Houston Partnership said at the height of Harvey’s stall over the city. “Nothing is happening in Houston except rescues and people watching people get rescued.”
The Port of Houston, the second busiest in the U.S., is a 25-mile network of public and private terminals, refineries and chemical plants that use the Houston Ship Channel to move products around the world through the Gulf of Mexico.
On Friday, the port reopened terminals to truck traffic, even though shipping remained “restricted because of the swift current in the channel,” said Port Commission Chairman Janiece Longoria. “Opening our terminals also reinforces … that it is important to resume normal operations as soon as practicable.”
The Port of Corpus Christi, which typically moves $100 million worth of goods a day, and the Port of Galveston, a popular launch for Caribbean cruise ships, also have reopened. More than 5,800 passengers on three Carnival cruise ships were expected to return to Galveston Friday and Saturday after being diverted to New Orleans during the storm.
Passenger flights into Bush Intercontinental and Hobby airports also have resumed.
Consumer spending and auto sales
Harvey essentially shut down retail spending in southeast Texas, prompting economists to predict a drop in the nation’s economic growth for the July-September quarter.
Forecasting firms IHS Markit and Macroeconomic Advisers estimate the storm will shave 0.3 to 1.3 percentage points off third quarter GDP. Some of that is likely to be recovered later in the year as government-funded construction and repairs get under way.
“Looking ahead, the impacts of Hurricane Harvey are weighing heavy in our calculations of real consumer spending in the third and fourth quarters,” said IHS Markit Executive Director Chris Christopher Jr.
One spending category that expects to see a post-Harvey surge is the automotive sector.
After an initial lull period to take stock of the devastation and reopen dealerships, the boost to sales of pickups and new cars over the next several months could be significant. Harvey may have done more vehicle damage than any storm in U.S. history, destroying as many as half a million autos, according to Cox Automotive.
“We think we will see sales in the area increase pretty quickly and we’re confident that will boost the entire market,” said Michelle Krebs, an analyst for Autotrader. “It’s a big truck and SUV market already, so we expect sales of those vehicles will be strong.”
To meet replacement demand in Texas, carmakers may have to crank up assembly lines just as they did after hurricanes Sandy and Katrina. Mark LaNeve, Ford’s vice president of U.S. sales and marketing, said Friday the period following Katrina is the best proxy the company has for what may happen next.
“The month or two immediately following were weak, as people were recovering and we were trying to get the dealers back on their feet and backfill inventory,” LaNeve said. “But then we saw a very dramatic snap-back in maybe the 60- to 100-day window following it where consumers and companies were replacing their vehicle needs.”
Vehicle sales rose 49 percent in the New York region the month after Sandy, said Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Cox, the parent company of car-shopping researchers Kelley Blue Book and Autotrader.
The 300,000 to 500,000 cars and trucks that Houston may have lost likely exceeded the 325,000 new vehicles sold in the region during the last 12 months, Smoke said. By comparison, the New York area lost about 250,000 autos related to its 2012 storm.
The Houston metro area ranks eighth nationwide in registered vehicles, with 5.6 million in operation, and accounts for about 2.3 percent of U.S. new-vehicle sales.
Outlook for recovery
The economic blow from Harvey came just as Houston was beginning to regain its footing after oil prices had tumbled into a freefall in mid-2014, bottoming at just over $26 a barrel in January 2016, forcing widespread cutbacks in the energy industry.
“Houston was just digging out and beginning to turn around,” said Edward Friedman, an economist at Moody’s Analytics.
Many economists agree Houston will rebound because of its importance as a commerce center and as corporations with major stakes there pour in resources to rebuild. Other parts of the coast might take longer to recover, and some small business owners could even struggle to reopen.
Economists at BBVA Research worry, though, that Harvey may leave long-term scars on the Houston economy. They write that “devastating weather events may force people to move out and deter both future investment and migration, thereby reducing economic potential.”
But Greater Houston Partnership’s Jankowski is a believer in Houston’s resilience.
“If $26 oil doesn’t do us in,” he said, “52 inches of rain won’t either.”
56 Comments on "If $26 oil doesn’t do us in, 52 inches of rain won’t either"
rockman on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 8:21 am
“How long this lasts will depend on how quickly the oil giants can bring refineries back to full capacity and get new supplies to stations.”
About 2 to 4 weeks for refineries to be back to 100%. In the meantime some relief from preexisting inventory: 5 days ago the terminal in Pasadena began delivering 3 million gallons/day of gasoline to Houston stations. No idea how long that inventory will last. Good news/bad news: with so many vehicles knocked out our demand is way down.
Shortend on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 8:24 am
Here is an example of the demand needed by the oil sector to provide its services to keep the oil flowing…
Regardless of how you feel about a carbon-based economy, it turns out to be good for the trucking industry. The energy sector is one of the largest sectors providing demand for truckload services. Ranging from equipment to service the drilles, to the sand that helps fracking operations, oil demand has a huge impact on the number of industry-wide truckload miles. For every rig that is drilled in North America, results in an additional 1.1 million truckload miles.
In places like North Dakota and Canada, the impact is even more profound. According to a study from the North Dakota State University (home of the Bison and one of the greatest dynasties in college football history), fracking contributed over $35B to the state’s economy, of which half went to trucking operations.
https://www.freightwaves.com/news/2017/8/19/oil-is-here-to-stay
Davy on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 8:35 am
This is just more stress to the global fabric. How much more is too much. This is about Houston but it is really more than just Houston. It is about a globally interconnected economy with multidimensional stress already. The fall is traditionally a volatile time in normal times. What more is ahead? There is a breaking point. What is that breaking point? What is the time frame. Who knows anymore. The world is more mess up now than it has been in years yet, the facade of normality is stronger than ever. That can’t end well for any of us.
joe on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 9:37 am
Global Warming. The seas are warmer, so the storms will be bigger. Simple physics. How many harveys will happen in the next decade? 1, 5? Who knows, but how many harveys can Houston take in the next 10 years? So far it looks to be about 1.
Tom on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 9:42 am
Joe, Everyone said the same thing after Katrina & Rita, then we didn’t see another major hurricane make landfall in the US for over 10 years.
Tom on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 9:42 am
This has been one of the coolest summers I can remember.
joe on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 9:54 am
That’s nice but the seas are still warmer. Hurricanes don’t feed on the warmth of your fart, or maybe it did.
Go Speed Racer on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 10:05 am
Hi Mr Rockman, is Houston your home base?
Living on some dry land, to avoid any
flood damage?
How come in Houston the water doesn’t flow
downhill to storm drains, same as other cities?
Kenz300 on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 10:33 am
Climate Change will only make extreme weather events worse in the coming years.
Yet Texas politicians deny the existence of Climate Change.
Texas has lax zoning restrictions.
Instead of building on wetlands they should be protecting them for use as natures water storage areas.
Uncontrolled growth without proper planning and zoning only makes disasters worse than they might otherwise be.
They define certain areas as flood plains for a reason.
Davy on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 10:37 am
They should call it disrupted climate change. This has been the coolest summer I can remember. We had a very dry period then huge rains earlier in the summer. This tells me to get ready for a hot dry period in the future maybe next summer. We have forced nature or nature is just changing. It is likely both but the result is possibly the end of stable climate that allowed civilization to flourish. Now it will be a civilization struggling to survive.
Sys1 on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 11:03 am
Here in France, the so-called experts called by business mainstream medias calmy explain that global warming has nothing to do with Harvey huricane. It’s just a random event, move along, everything is fine. Hey! It’s even a good new, it will boost GDP for rebuilding.
So as BAU is the norm as long as there is something to burn down to the ground, I calmly conclude that we are doomed.
Bob on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 12:00 pm
A lot of the Texas middle class is going to go down a notch to the poor class. And a lot of Texas isn’t going to get rebuilt. Just look at New Orleans to see a picture of their future. This could easily set off a Depression. Also, the unspoken problem as to the cause is too many people building in urban areas and paving over too much land. No one wants to admit that and reduce our population to compensate. Well, we are going to be forced to; Nature is tearing our country apart.
Plantagenet on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 1:03 pm
The people of Houston did a good job in dealing with flooding caused by the most rain ever from a single storm.
Now they have to deal with recovery—a longer and more difficult task.
Cheers!
Anonymouse1 on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 2:52 pm
How would you know if they have done a ‘good job’ there plantietard? Were you there, personally overseeing and evaluating their efforts? Are you remotely qualified to make such a sweeping statement, even had you actually been there ?
Answer: No you are not, and no you were were not.
Cheerio moron!
Apneaman on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 3:10 pm
Tom, “Everyone said the same thing after Katrina & Rita”
Really? Do you have a link to where they “quote” everyone saying that? Let’s make it easier for you. How about a quote of just one fucking person saying that?
Tom what is your point of making that statement? Kinda remind me of clog with the implication of something without actually saying it. Speak plainly. Say what you mean.
It’s true there was a hurricane drought for the US getting nailed. Then it ended. How’s that working out?
August 4, 2016
Capital Weather Gang
The U.S. coast is in an unprecedented hurricane drought — why this is terrifying
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/04/the-u-s-coast-is-in-an-unprecedented-hurricane-drought-why-this-is-terrifying/
onlooker on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 3:10 pm
Too bad though that the decision makers, administrators and planners in the US continuously demonstrate that they do not give a damn about the plebes. The Superfund sites in Houston were not prepared for the flooding that took place. So, now the worse may still be in store for the people around there as those nasty chemicals and substances are spread in the water and air. Unless Rockman corrects the narrative as stated in this linked article. https://apnews.com/27796dd13b9549b0ac76aded58a15122
Apneaman on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 3:11 pm
Heat, Smoke, and Fire Assault Western States: All-Time Record Heat in California
“The steamy, fiery summer of 2017 hit a new crescendo this weekend across the U.S. West, which is getting its hottest Labor Day weekend on record in many locations—and in some spots, the hottest weather ever observed. Overall, “this is the greatest statewide heat wave ever recorded in California,”
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/heat-smoke-and-fire-assault-western-states-all-time-record-heat-california
Apneaman on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 3:19 pm
Whether someone is man enough to accept facts or not the fact is y’all live in a completely different world than a few decades ago.
Tough talking dick swinging texass retards don’t impress me much and they brag and talk tough no matter what.
It ain’t over until it’s over.
Fort McMurray wildfire finally extinguished after 15 months
“Fort McMurray — After 458 days, the Horse River fire that destroyed thousands of homes and scattered tens of thousands of people across Canada is finally dead.
The fire — first spotted on May 1, 2016, before entering Fort McMurray two days later — was declared extinguished on Aug. 2, said Lynn Daina of Alberta Agriculture and Forestry.
At its height, the May 2016 wildfire burned an area of 589,552 hectares, or 5,895 square-kilometres.”
http://edmontonjournal.com/news/local-news/fort-mcmurray-wildfire-finally-extinguished-after-15-months
Stupid fucking white men from texass have a history of loudly proclaiming “Mission Accomplished” when the war is just getting started.
twocats on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 3:48 pm
peak oil has been destabilizing countries for the last 10 years, but has barely affected me. Climate change has destroyed entire cities but the worst I’ve suffered is a $0.20 raise in gas prices and a 10-hour drizzlethon. Think global – suffer local, I always say.
rockman on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 4:34 pm
Some clarity. First, Houston is not Texas. Of course a big chunk of it from a population and business perspective. Second, with respect to oil and NG production: an insignificant amount comes from the area impacted by Harvey. Yes, the refineries and ports shut down. But that was due to safety protocol. No significant damage was done. Within 2+ weeks it will be business as normal.
Except, of course, for some of the employees working in the Houston. But that affect the cash flow of the oil patch. In the mean time the other employees will pick up the slack. But those out because of the storm will figure a way to get back to work: they need their paycheck more now then before Harvey hit. And some offices, like the Rockman’s was back to BAU last Wednesday with all hands on deck since they suffered no damage.
Of course for some of the other business sectors it’s a very different situation. But difficult the seperate then out. The sales of non-essential items should take a huge hit. OTOH furniture building material will have a huge problem keep some stock on the shelves. Good news/bad news for rental properties. They were seeing a fair bit of inflation before Harvey hit. Now, if a property isn’t under a lease contract who knows where those prices will go.
Probably the greatest pain will be felt by lower skilled folks workers employed at companies shut down long term or permanently. If they can do construction work they might come out OK…maybe even better, for a while. But those without such capabilities, such as in the service industry, will face the biggest nightmare: no job, little or no savings and maybe no working vehicle: how do they relocate out of Houston. A lot of folks relocated to Houston after Katrina. But we had a good job market and relatively inexpensive housing.
Many large companies headquartered in Houston will be OK because their revenue generating operations are not in this area. Some retailers will shut their doors for ever while others will have record breaking sales for the next couple of years.
Besides insurance and FEMA Texas is very fortunate to have its “rainy day fund”, an ironic name considering. Essentially a “sovereign fund” with $10+ BILLION in it. A few years ago several hundred $million was drawn from it to help our farmers deal with a drought.
So just stayed tuned. The next big “what if” is the cool front rolling in from the north this week. This is the time of the year that Houston transitions from summer to fall. During which time we typically are REPEATEDLY hit with heavy rains from such fronts rolling in from the north.
rockman on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 4:36 pm
“But that affect the cash flow of the oil patch.” Should read: “But that WILL LITTLE affect the cash flow of the oil patch.
Antius on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 5:27 pm
Whilst this will bring financial ruin to a lot of poor individuals, it isn’t going to bring down the US or Texas.
Ironically, expensive oil would do these people more damage than cheap $26 oil, because of the carnage it would inflict on the rest of the economy. The coming interest rate rises and general inflation resulting from expensive oil, would make it more difficult for drilling to be carried out affordably, even if oil is expensive. I remember something like this occurring in 2007-2008.
rockman on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 5:47 pm
Antique – “…resulting from expensive oil, would make it more difficult for drilling to be carried out affordably, even if oil is expensive.” You lost me there. The higher the oil price the more drilling will take place. That’s been the dynamic since Col. Drake drilled his first well. Folks way over emphasize the impact of interest rates on drilling activity. Back in the late 70’s boom the rig count was over 4,000 (more the 4X the current count) when rates were 10%+.
rockman on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 5:58 pm
Well, looks like the Rockman may be wrong about the inability to move those flooded vehicles. Just saw a news report showing a 1,000+ already moved to Rockman’ s little part of unflooded greater Houston. They’ve been hauled to the field adjacent to a racetrack that’s about 35 miles east of downtown. They anticipate storing around 100,000 vehicles there. Repairing them? Who knows.
Makati1 on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 6:29 pm
Anyone interested in the next one? Irma? You can see her at:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-49.78,16.11,3000/loc=-49.497,18.086
Prevailing winds seem to be pushing her south with a good possibility of coming into the Gulf. Now wouldn’t that be a kicker for Texas? A 4 followed by a 5? But it looks bad for somewhere on the East Coast. Hurricane drought over? A trillion dollar year? We shall see.
Davy on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 6:36 pm
Sorry makat here is the real Irma scoop. You are blinded by your emotional projections.
“HURRICANE IRMA”
“Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center”
http://tinyurl.com/yb5ybynr
“KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is expected to impact the northeastern Leeward Islands by
the middle of this week as a major hurricane, accompanied by
dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts, along with rough
surf and rip currents. Hurricane watches have been issued for
portions of the Leeward Islands and additional hurricane or tropical
storm watches may be required on Monday. Residents in these areas
should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to advice given by
officials.”
“2. Irma is expected to remain a dangerous major hurricane through
the upcoming week and could directly affect the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos, and
the Bahamas. Residents in all of these areas should monitor the
progress of Irma and listen to advice given by officials. Tropical
storm or hurricane watches could be issued for the British and U.S.
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday.”
Davy on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 6:48 pm
“Future Hurricanes Will Be Worse Than Harvey”
http://tinyurl.com/yaa7wnxt
“No two storms are identical, particularly Sandy and Harvey. “Sandy didn’t stall,” Lackmann notes. Nor did, for example, Hurricane Irene in 2011 or Matthew last year. Harvey’s destructive holding pattern in and around Houston has placed stalling storms front-of-mind for hurricane researchers. Whether there’s been a change in high-level wind patterns that “steer” storms is of paramount importance, according to Kerry Emanuel, atmospheric science professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.”
“The biggest impact multiplier in many storms won’t be slowness and stalling, as much as human decisions on the ground. Building a city in a flood plain, for example, is just asking for it. “My hunch is that signal would be greater than the anthropogenic signal of the storm itself,” he said. The 2015 study, however, didn’t analyze any changes in population or urbanization that, in the real world, strongly influence hurricane damages.”
rockman on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 6:55 pm
And now an odd an interesting story on the Weather Channel: Top 10 storms in the US. Hurricanes, blizzards, dust storms, tornados, etc. From the early 1900’s thru Sandy. And that’s the very odd part: not a single mention of Katrina let alone a spot on the list. Much less expensive storms with much smaller death counts. And since Sandy made the list it’s not a function of timing since it happened well after Katrina. Leaving out Katrina was obviously intentional. Why? Need to ask the Weather Channel.
But the “Perfect Storm” (as in the movie) just made it in at #10. Being a Yankee problem I didn’t pay much attention. But the reason it was “perfect” was very similar to the nature of Harvey. The perfect storm resulted from a high pressure cell that caused it to stall offshore for 3 days. That resulted in the coast being battered by rains and high winds for those 3 days. The big difference is that Sandy stalled further offshore then Harvey. And Harvey became stalled right over the Texas coastline for the same reason. But by two high pressure cells: one north and one east. In fact not just stalled but the northern high pressure cell pushed Harvey back offshore after it made landfall.
At that point Harvey stalled in the worst possible position. The southern circulation stayed over water where it picked up trillions of gallons. The northern half of the circulation was over land (Houston) and dumped trillions of gallons. As mentioned before while Harvey was a powerful storm it was not exceptional. Had it moved north at the typical 10 to 15 mph rate Houston would have probably gotten around 5″ to 8″ of rain. But the situation was even worse: the outer band which dumped most the rain was only about 60 miles wide. And that 60 mile “rain machine” kept rotating over Houston ultimately dropping about 50″.
Lucky us.
coastline by the same type of high of high pressure
Davy on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 7:10 pm
“878 mb Storm Off North Florida — The Model Forecast for Irma that no one Wants to See Happen”
http://tinyurl.com/ycge8qs7
“Looking beyond the official forecast, some of the our best long range model runs are putting together some seriously scary predictions for Irma. By next week, the Global Forecast System (GFS) model shows Irma as a 878 mb monster hurricane looming about 300 miles off Florida. 878 mb would represent the lowest pressures ever recorded in a hurricane in the Atlantic (The present strongest Atlantic storm was Wilma at 882 mb. The devastating Labor Day Hurricane hit 892 mb.). And it would almost certainly represent the strongest storm in our records ever to venture so far North. 878 mb roughly corresponds with maximum sustained winds in excess of 170 mph and possibly as high as 200 mph or more. And we’ve never seen something like that threatening the Central Atlantic U.S. East Coast in all of the modern era.”
“The model then slams the storm into Cape Hatteras just after midnight on Monday, September 11 as only a slightly weaker Category 5 range storm at 910 mb. The storm proceeds north into the Hampton Roads area early Monday morning retaining approximate Cat 5 status at 919 mb. After roaring over this highly populated low-lying region, the storm enters the Chesapeake Bay at 934 mb by noon on Monday — in the Category 4 range and still stronger than Hurricane Sandy — before crossing up the Bay and over the D.C. region by evening the same day at 958 mb (approx Cat 3).”
“To say this would be an absolute worst case disaster scenario for the Mid-Atlantic is an understatement. A storm of this intensity would produce 10-20 foot or higher storm surges, devastating winds, and catastrophic rainfall throughout the Outer Banks, Hampton Roads and on up the Chesapeake Bay. But unlike Harvey, it would be a fast-moving event. More like a freight train than a persistently worsening deluge.”
Makati1 on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 7:26 pm
Davy, I prefer my own observations over the last week at the site I posted above. Weather forecasts are like reading tea leaves. They have no idea where it will hit at this point. Too many variables. The Bermuda High seems to be keeping it south. A few more days will tell.
Davy on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 7:52 pm
makat, we know you consider yourself an expert on most everything but you have little understanding of weather models so get real with your goofy emotionally driven observation.
Apneaman on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 8:16 pm
rockman, you are doing yeoman’s volunteer work for the denier plunge protection squad. It’s not working. Perhaps you feel it will help with your growing cognitive dissonance, but methinks not – you sound more desperate to misdirect and come up with ‘alternative reality’ explanations with each new comment. It’s beyond pathetic and is not fooling anyone.
Here’s my new favorite from the desperate denier squad.
Did Gay Sex Cause Hurricane Harvey or Was it Climate Change? Some On the Right Blame LGBT Americans (No Seriously)
“Among those crying “science be damned” and waving their pitchforks in the general direction of the LGBT community over the past week were minister Kevin Swanson, who believes the Bible preaches death to gays, and the similarly delightful radio host Rick Wiles, who thinks Ebola would be a handy way to wipe out the LGBT community.”
http://www.newsweek.com/gay-americans-are-blame-hurricane-harvey-apparently-659059
I can relate since I think the best thing for the world would be if y’all denier scum would choke in your sleep tonight and die die die. Instead most of you will die from the numerous knock on consequences of AGW, but first you get to finish dragging your city and country down.
Apneaman on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 8:17 pm
Arkema burns remaining containers at Crosby chemical plant
http://abc13.com/arkema-ignites-remaining-containers-at-crosby-chemical-plant/2372451/
Apneaman on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 8:20 pm
Paul Beckwith, Climate System Scientist
Science of Superstorms. After Harvey, What’s Next?
Why was Harvey a Superstorm: expected $ losses greater than Katrina & Sandy combined?I teach you about how the science of abrupt climate change is turbocharging storms.
Global warming has greatly increased ocean surface and deeper water temperatures, warmer air holds much more water vapour and latent heat, and storms are staying in place much longer due to broken jet streams.
https://paulbeckwith.net/2017/09/01/science-of-superstorms-after-harvey-whats-next/
Apneaman on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 8:22 pm
Largest wildfire in history of Los Angeles now blazing away. 13 of California’s 20 largest fires have burned since 2000. #LaTunaFire
https://twitter.com/ClimateSignals/status/904425104842473473
bobinget on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 9:47 pm
Smoke from nearby fires knocked visibility down to about two miles. Breathing with difficulty.
On alert for thunderstorms later in week.
JuanP on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 10:17 pm
Hurricane Irma seems to be headed straight for Miami at this time. While still almost a week away, its course, the water’s temperature, barometric pressure, time of the year, and atmospheric humidity are all indicating that this could be a truly catastrophic storm. At this time it has the potential to become the worst hurricane to land in the continental USA in the country’s history. Let’s hope it changes course and heads back into the Atlantic. People living in the Eastern Seaboard should keep an eye on this storm and start making emergency preparations. I may decide to evacuate for the first time in the almost 30 years since I came to Miami Beach. I have some friends in Colorado we want to visit.
Makati1 on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 10:26 pm
JuanP, Don’t wait too long. I-95 & I-75 will be a huge parking lot when it looks like Irma is visiting.
Makati1 on Sun, 3rd Sep 2017 10:29 pm
Davy, I have more experience than you do by virtue of age. Those weather guys have degrees but not much common sense. They will only know for sure a day out. And then it may change. The Bermuda high, or lack of, directs most Atlantic hurricanes that form off the African Coast.
Apneaman on Mon, 4th Sep 2017 1:33 am
Texas Republicans Helped Chemical Plant That Exploded Lobby Against Safety Rules
“The rules, which were set to go into effect this year, were halted by the Trump administration after a furious lobbying campaign by plant owner Arkema and its affiliated trade association, the American Chemistry Council, which represents a chemical industry that has poured tens of millions of dollars into federal elections.
The effort to stop the chemical plant safety rules was backed by top Texas Republican lawmakers, who have received big campaign donations from chemical industry donors.
Representatives from Arkema Americas and the American Chemistry Council did not immediately respond to requests for comment.”
http://www.ibtimes.com/political-capital/texas-republicans-helped-chemical-plant-exploded-lobby-against-safety-rules
What else can they do to kick the cancer can just a little longer, but to act ever more reckless?
This is how all junkies act just before rock bottom/death.
Industrial civilization – Dead Man Walking.
Davy on Mon, 4th Sep 2017 4:59 am
“Davy, I have more experience than you do by virtue of age. Those weather guys have degrees but not much common sense.”
LMFAO , that is too funny. If Irma hits Houston again as you would like to happen then it will have just been a long shot. Sure it can but what I did was show what NOAA has determined from the models. Makat, are you saying you are smarter than computer models?
Davy on Mon, 4th Sep 2017 5:13 am
Watch out Florida
“HURRICANE IRMA”
“Coastal Watches/Warnings and Forecast Cone for Storm Center”
http://tinyurl.com/ycwuofhd
“A strong, stationary mid-tropospheric high centered over the central
Atlantic is forcing Irma on a west-southwestward course, and the
initial motion estimate remains 255/12 kt. Irma will begin
rounding the southwestern edge of the high soon, which will allow
the hurricane to turn westward later today and then west-
northwestward in 36-48 hours. Down the road, a large mid-latitude
trough is expected to dig southward over the eastern United States
during the next 72 hours, but the global models have been trending
toward quickly lifting the trough out over New England and eastern
Canada on days 4 and 5, with the subtropical ridge building westward
toward Florida. As a result, it’s becoming increasingly likely that
Irma would maintain a west-northwestward heading on days 3 through
5, and the track guidance shifted significantly westward on this
cycle during that period. Remarkably, the track models are very
tightly clustered through day 5, which increases the confidence in
the westward shift of the latest NHC forecast.”
Davy on Mon, 4th Sep 2017 5:28 am
“Latest Projections Show Hurricane Irma Headed For Florida”
http://tinyurl.com/ydarc9mz
“Readers may be wondering, if the storm slams southeast Florida, as is looking increasingly likely. Well, the Miami Herald spoke with one engineer who built a “dynamic” weather forecasting model that…The maps he produced stretch from Homestead north to Port St. Lucie, not including barrier islands which are separate land masses, and depict flooding after 48 hours from 20 inches of rain, 30 inches of rain, and 40 inches of rain.”
“If his models are accurate, residents of densely populated cities like Miami might want to start bracing for floods. Abdul-Aziz found that floodwaters in parts of Miami, Hialeah, South Dade and Fort Lauderdale could rise between nine and 17 inches at least with this amount of rain. And with 40 inches of rain, flooding in those same neighborhoods, as well as many more, rises to between 23 inches and more than three feet — enough to begin damaging houses and partially submerge cars.“Because of the flat land and low elevation, water does not move fast. It goes slow and the drainage capacity is not designed to take that much rainfall,” he said.”
Cloggie on Mon, 4th Sep 2017 5:43 am
enough to begin damaging houses and partially submerge cars.
In Houston 100,000 cars were, probably terminally, damaged ($1B).
Time for Florida to bring their cars in safety, that is go to higher altitudes and park your car on a slope.
https://www.worldmapsonline.com/images/umap/universal_florida_thematic_lg.jpg
Davy on Mon, 4th Sep 2017 5:50 am
“Wrath of Harvey Lays Bare Mexico’s U.S. Natural Gas Addiction”
http://tinyurl.com/y7492rr3
“Hurricane Harvey’s crushing blow to the U.S. energy industry reveals just how dependent Mexico has become on natural gas from its northern neighbor. The storm’s wrath forced cross-border gas pipelines in Texas to shut and prevented tankers from loading cargoes of the fuel. Mexican consumers, who are burning record amounts of gas from America’s prolific shale basins, had no choice but to cut back as imports dropped 16 percent in a single day after Harvey hit before recovering. After ending its state-owned energy monopoly four years ago, Mexico has supplemented dwindling domestic gas production with shipments from the U.S. As the two nations’ gas markets become more intertwined, however, supply disruptions in the U.S. — whether from natural disasters or policy changes like President Donald Trump’s threats to withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement — can send Mexico scrambling to find alternatives for American supply. “Mexico has become more dependent on U.S. natural gas as they now rely on the U.S. for more than half of their supply,” up from 25 percent in 2014, Jacob Fericy, analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, said Friday in an email.”
rockman on Mon, 4th Sep 2017 10:54 am
Mexico also became dependent on liquid fossil fuel a couple of years ago: the value of imported refinery products exceeded that of its exported oil.
Apneaman on Mon, 4th Sep 2017 2:37 pm
Storm flooding destroyed hundreds of thousands of cars in a city that relies heavily on them
” DICKINSON, Tex. — Every single mode of transportation Katrina Chadbourne’s family owned was swallowed in Hurricane Harvey’s flooding.
“My husband’s truck is gone,” Chadbourne said. “My daughter’s Lexus is gone. My husband’s Harley is gone.”
A pair of water scooters went under as the flood climbed her front steps, and then a kayak was lost in a failed attempt to save the scooters. Her “baby,” a red 2015 Mustang GT, was the last hope, and it was sitting at the McRee Ford dealership 20 miles southeast of Houston, where it was receiving new tires on a service lot. But that, too, was a goner; the dealership was among the hardest hit in the region, losing 700 vehicles to the murky floodwaters.”
http://wapo.st/2vYlIsl
♫ Row, row, row your boat
Gently down the stream
Doomily, doomily, doomily, doomily
Life is but a
dreamnightmare ♫Apneaman on Mon, 4th Sep 2017 3:04 pm
“If $26 oil doesn’t do us in,” he said, “52 inches of rain won’t either.”
Oh well who could ever argue with such sound logic as that?
“If $26 oil doesn’t do us in,” he said, “a shotgun blast in the face won’t either.”
“If $26 oil doesn’t do us in,” he said, “a nuclear warhead won’t either.”
“I haven’t died yet, therefore I never will”
JuanP on Mon, 4th Sep 2017 3:55 pm
Irma is being pushed further South than originally thought by a Mid Atlantic high pressure system, this increases the probability that Florida will get hit but also weakens the system as parts of it will be moving over Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and Cuba rather than having the whole storm moving over hot water all the way as was forecasted yesterday. There is still the possibility of a major Category 5 hurricane hitting Miami head on, though.
Apneaman on Mon, 4th Sep 2017 4:45 pm
Jaun, Cat5 is worst case, but it does not need to be that bad to batten down the hatches and get out of the way. New abnormal of storm surge and rain bombs. Look at what happened to N Carolina last year and that one was a few hundred miles off shore. Also last year a No name storm in New Orleans that dumped trillions of gallons of water on them.
These American meteorologists (blog) are about the best I’ve encountered at relating the facts and ongoing details and the various odds (different models) for these approaching events.
Threat Increasing for Cuba, Florida from Intensifying Irma – September 4, 2017
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/threat-increasing-cuba-florida-intensifying-irma