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Page added on August 14, 2017
IEA sees fall in oil demand to continue
The Paris-headquartered International Energy Agency (IEA) has been anticipating extended period of decline in the demand for oil commodities, primarily in core sectors like power and transport.
In his presentation at the week-long Asia Cooperation Dialogue (ACD) on Energy in Bohol, IEA Special Advisor to the Executive Director Amos Bromhead noted that despite doubling of global car fleets, “biofuels and electric cars reduce oil demand for passenger cars.”
Nevertheless, the global energy think-tank has been seeing other sectors pulling up growth in the oil sector – such as in maritime, freight, aviation, and petrochemicals.
Essentially, Bromhead indicated that “there’s no peak yet in sight, but a slowdown in growth for oil demand.”
Early on, the IEA had set off warning that the current mode of “under-investment” in the upstream segment of the oil industry may eventually trigger fresh upticks in prices that could be felt directly by consumers.
It had been cautioning economies on the two-year slowdown in investments happening globally, that if capital outlay pace would not pick up soon, markets may be up for another “surprise of drastic price shocks” again in the medium term.
On other technologies, the IEA energy analyst showed growth trajectories in the Asian region, primarily that of coal despite falling consumption in major economies, specifically China.
24 Comments on "IEA sees fall in oil demand to continue"
rockman on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 1:59 pm
“…“there’s no peak yet in sight, but a slowdown in growth for oil demand.”
Or more clearly stated: there continues to be an increasing growth in the consumption of oil but at a lower rate.
I’m sure the IEA will let us know as soon as there is an actual decrease. LOL.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 2:10 pm
Human beings cause their own mass extinction event because the majority of “homo sapiens” are not smart enough to understand basic level math or science (over 90% of humans are too dumb to be able to even comprehend the high school level physics and chemistry that is required to understand how increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2 cause climate change), and democracy as a now universal form of government probably aggravates the problem and makes it more intractable because you now have a 90%+ majority of voting human beings in the electorate who are totally ignorant of science and who are always able to form a dumb majority out vote the very small minority of scientists who are actually able to analyze the data and do the math to reach the conclusion that the human race will cause its own extinction (and possibly the extinction of all of the rest of the life on earth as well) within the next 10 years.
Davy on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 2:13 pm
MM, 10years? Seems a bit hasty to me. I am not arguing the direction we are in, just the time scale.
paultard on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 2:14 pm
mastard, get off Guy’s dick. the man could be in pain due to life’s disappointments. don’t encourage him
paultard on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 2:23 pm
stick to genital farming . industrial ag and turning it into manufacturing is what i’m advocating.
Boat on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 3:09 pm
MM,
MASTERMIND on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 2:10 pm
Human beings cause their own mass extinction event because the majority of “homo sapiens” are not smart enough to understand basic level math or science (over 90% of humans are too dumb to be able to even comprehend the high school level physics and chemistry that is required to understand how increased concentrations of atmospheric CO2 cause climate change)
How many of those 90 percent are labeled doomers? Going back hundreds of years members of this group prophecy one kind of doom or another.
MASTERMIND on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 3:29 pm
Actually Davy 10 years is rather optimistic. We most likely wont make it another five. Here are the reasons!
Conventional Oil Peaked in 2006 –IEA
http://imgur.com/a/hccu9
New Oil discoveries by scientists have been declining since 1965 and last year was the lowest in history -IEA
http://imgur.com/a/W60yn
International Energy Agency Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows
https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-global-oil-discoveries-at-record-low-in-2016-1493244000
Saudi Aramco CEO believes world oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom
http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017/07/10/saudi-aramco-ceo-believes-oil-shortage-coming-despite-u-s-shale-boom.html
UAE warns of world oil shortages ahead by 2020 due to industry spending cuts
http://www.arabianindustry.com/oil-gas/news/2016/nov/6/more-spending-cuts-as-uae-predicts-oil-shortages-5531344/
HSBC Global Bank warns 80% of the worlds conventional fields are declining and world oil shortages by 2020
https://www.research.hsbc.com/R/24/vzchQwb
UBS Global Bank warns of industry slowdown and world Oil Shortages by 2020
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/12136886/Oil-slowdown-to-trigger-supply-crisis-by-2020-warns-bank.html
German Army (leaked) Peak Oil study concludes world oil shortages would collapse the world economy & world governments/democracies
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/peak-oil-and-the-german-government-military-study-warns-of-a-potentially-drastic-oil-crisis-a-715138.html
The Oil Age may come to an end for a shortage of oil. -Saudi Oil Minister Sheikh Yamani
Makati1 on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 6:28 pm
The world will not end when oil availability ends, but the Western life style will go away. THAT will happen in less than 10 years. Maybe less than two.
The ‘tricks’ to keep the economies of the Western debt countries from collapsing has been amazing, but I think the end is near. That is why I say maybe less then two years.
Ten years would be the limit to human life on earth if there is a nuclear war/exchange. Those who don’t die in the blasts would die from starvation and cancers in less then 10.
GregT on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 6:35 pm
MASTERMIND,
You seem to be aware of the human predicament, and I would assume open to knowledge and understanding.
Dave Cohen wrote 4 consecutive essays in an attempt to make sense of it all, and his conclusion is that it has nothing to do with education, or intelligence, but rather how the human brain is wired. If you haven’t already read those essays, they can be found here:
http://www.declineoftheempire.com/2014/10/adventures-in-flatland.html
Well worthy of consideration.
GregT on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 6:45 pm
And for what it’s worth. From the hundreds upon hundreds of articles, papers, opinion pieces, and observations, my own personal conclusion going back over a decade ago was for the wheels to come off around 2025. My thoughts have not changed. Although it could very well be a few years before, or a few years after. I know that even Boat himself has said in the past, around 2030. I honestly don’t think that we have 12 1/2 years left. Time will tell.
Makati1 on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 6:54 pm
GregT, my own personal thought is that it will happen before 2025. Maybe by or before 2020. Everything seems to be hitting the hockey stick on the chart. We shall see.
GregT on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 7:04 pm
Obviously Makati, at the start, that would be very location specific. The wheels have already come off for millions of people around the world, including many in first world, western societies. I know from listening to my own kids, it’s already a very different reality for those just starting out.
There are definitely plenty of warning signs of impending collapse on the horizon. How long this facade can be maintained is anybodiy’s guess, but you could most certainly be correct.
I hope not……
Makati1 on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 7:57 pm
GregT, I hope not also. I have all of my family in the US and I know many of them are unprepared for the coming events. Some realize what is happening, but they are in denial. Others don’t have the resources to do much except wait and hope for the best. A few have prepared as best as they can, Like I have. All we can do is wait and see. Good luck!
MASTERMIND on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 8:28 pm
Makati1 & GregT
Good luck to you both.
GregT on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 9:40 pm
In many respects we are fortunate here. I have connected with many of my neighbours, and most are on the same page. Everyone that I have met so far has a large vegetable garden, and there are locals with orchards and locals who raise livestock. Not that meat should pose much of a problem. We are overrun with both deer and rabbits. We also have a river close by with no fishing pressure, that has steelhead in the spring, and pink, chinook, and coho salmon in the fall.
We also have a good resident bear population, as well as cougars and elk. I could walk out my back door, and get lost in the woods for months, without ever seeing another person.
Sissyfuss on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 10:14 pm
Greg T, do you know how fortunate you are to still inhabit a part of the Earth that resembles a healthy environment? Hang on to it as long as you can.
Makati1 on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 10:28 pm
GregT. I too am working with the local neighbors to help them as needed. They are mostly self sufficient in ways Americans can only dream of. Most raise chickens, rabbits, veggies and fruits in their yards. Some have a hog or goat. Try doing that in an America suburb. LOL
Within two hours walking distance, there are fish farms, hog farms, chicken farms, and veggie and fruit farms, not to mention that the town is also a fishing port. Our closest neighbor has fish ponds and another raises hogs. The Pacific is only six miles down river from our farm. We may not have the wildlife you do, but there are monitor lizards as big as medium dogs that I am told taste good. They caught one on the farm last year and the neighbors had a feast. ^_^
BTW: We had a one kilo mud (its color, not taste) crab last night that was delicious. It measured 9″ across the shell and was cheaper than two McDonalds meals. Not quite the Alaskan crabs I am used to but a good substitute. And certainly better than the Chesapeake Blues I grew up eating.
GregT on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 10:45 pm
Yes Sissyfuss,
I most certainly do. My wife and I comment on it nearly every day. There are moments however. We had a cougar on the property last fall, and a bear on the back porch last week. Bears don’t bother me so much. Cougars freak me out. I always carry a big sharp knife with me when I’m out and about, and when I venture further I carry a 12″ 870. My wife always carries bear spray.
GregT on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 10:57 pm
Mak,
We are also close to the ocean. About a 5 mile walk. It never ceases to amaze me how much clearer the water is, compared to where I used to live back in Vancouver. We routinely see Humpback, Gray Whales, and Orcas, as well as Sea Lions, Dolphins, and Seals. Down on the river there are Muskrat, Mink, and Otters.
My wife was planting out back a few weeks ago, and she was complaining to me about a bird that was making so much noise that it was driving her nuts. Turns out it was a pair of Perigrine Falcons, tag teaming a Great Horned Owl. Needless to say, there haven’t been many birds around here lately, and I haven’t seen a rabbit in two weeks.
Makati1 on Mon, 14th Aug 2017 11:39 pm
GregT, it appears that you live in a very special place. I hope it can remain so. Enjoy! ^_^
MD on Tue, 15th Aug 2017 3:16 am
“Oil Demand” again. Energy shortage addressed from the opposite side of the supply/demand ratio.
Kenz300 on Tue, 15th Aug 2017 9:53 am
Electric vehicles are safer, cleaner and will be cheaper as battery prices continue to fall.
The future is electric.
Smart investors look to where we are going not to where we have been.
MASTERMIND on Tue, 15th Aug 2017 2:15 pm
The 1973 so-called “oil embargo” which reduced oil supply to the USA by somewhere around 3% or 4%. It slammed the US economy, caused the largest stock market crash since the great depression, doubled gasoline prices, severely damaged US industry and caused a 55 MPH national speed limit which remained in effect for ten years. The government also put restrictions on how much gasoline you could purchase. There were fist fights and even a couple murders between the public at gas stations. Just wait until we experience a 10% or 20% drop in oil supplies. In a few years or sooner we certainly will. When it hits the economic and social damage will be catastrophic. The end of Western Civilization, from China to Europe, to the US, will not occur when oil runs out. The economic and social chaos will occur when supplies are merely reduced sufficiently.
http://i.imgur.com/7aMKHdp.gif
energy investor on Tue, 15th Aug 2017 4:34 pm
MM,
Just calling in from outer space…
I seem to recall that in 1000AD the world was hotter but the CO2 level was lower. How does this affect the theory that increased CO2 causes global warming?
When I dropped in, in 1000AD Greenland was actually green. Go figure. Wonder why that was?
This visit, I see some folks have caught on…
http://www.wnd.com/2017/07/study-blows-greenhouse-theory-out-of-the-water/
Yet this sort of stuff could upset the banksters who want to profit from moving carbon credits around, and the 30,000 folks on the IPCC “climate change” payroll.
Next time I drop in, I suppose nothing will have changed… an extra two billion of you but still busy in denial. Lots of AI and robots running the place….yet still in denial…
lol