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Page added on March 7, 2020

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Huge Red Flag For Oil: Global Economic Growth Could Be Cut In Half

Consumption

A prolonged and wide-ranging coronavirus outbreak could cut global economic growth to just 1.5 percent this year, half the growth rate expected before the outbreak, and send Japan and the euro area into recession, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) said on Monday.

A significant drop in global economic growth is very bad news for oil demand, which has already been depressed by the outbreak.

Yet, the OECD’s base-case scenario is that the outbreak would peak in China in Q1 2020 and outbreaks in other countries are mild and contained. In this event, global growth could be just 0.5 percent lower in 2020 compared to the projections the OECD made in November 2019, the organization said in its Interim Economic Assessment today.

In this scenario, “annual global GDP growth is projected to drop to 2.4% in 2020 as a whole, from an already weak 2.9% in 2019, with growth possibly even being negative in the first quarter of 2020,” OECD said.

However, if the outbreak lasts longer and spreads throughout Asia Pacific, Europe, and North America, this would materially weaken the global economy, with growth possibly dropping to just 1.5 percent in 2020, half the rate projected before the outbreak.

The coronavirus outbreak has significantly weakened near-term global economic prospects, but the OECD still sees a ‘contained outbreak’ as the base-case scenario.

However, the organization warns that downside risks remain significant and urged governments “to act swiftly and forcefully to overcome the coronavirus and its economic impact.”

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned last month that China’s growth could drop to 5.6 percent this year due to the coronavirus, down by 0.4 percentage points compared to the January estimate, while global growth would be about 0.1 percentage points lower than previous estimates.

“But we are also looking at more dire scenarios where the spread of the virus continues for longer and more globally, and the growth consequences are more protracted,” the IMF’s Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said.

As more and more countries started reporting coronavirus cases last week, oil prices plunged by 14 percent in a week as market participants fear a significant global economic slowdown and, by extension, weak global oil demand.

By Tsvetana Paraskova for Oilprice.com



69 Comments on "Huge Red Flag For Oil: Global Economic Growth Could Be Cut In Half"

  1. DT on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 12:54 pm 

    Oil and the products made from oil will be used and burned until industrial civilization ends. No oil usage no industrial civilization. Pretty simple huh?

  2. Outcast_Searcher on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 12:58 pm 

    With doomers, and especially fast crash doomers, ANY level of growth means the end of the world.

    If the scenario were for twice the growth rate in 2020, then it would be too much growth, running out of oil real soon now, oil too expensive and imminent global bankruptcy, yadda yadda.

    Struggling along with BAU, even with large short term growth fluctuations in the short term as various unpredictable events unfold (COVID-19 as a prime example) is part of a NORMAL global economy over time.

    Just as it has been for the 50ish years I’ve been paying attention.

    Some stuggle or inconvenience isn’t insta-doom, or long term doom.

    Given how global warming might well make novel viruses more common and perhaps more deadly over time, it would be NICE if, for a change, governments would learn to be BETTER at dealing with such outbreaks and especially with acting early and competently.

    Given the efficiency of governments, I won’t be holding my breath though. After all, there are always fighter jets, wealth redistribution programs, etc. that politicians can’t wait to spend money on, hoping to buy votes.

  3. FuelShortageComing on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 3:05 pm 

    I just saw that the number of death in Italy is climbing fast. I am still not convinced that South Korea is doing good. I am still no convince that South Korea will go back to same manufacturing level before Corona virus. If South Korea is coming back, their manufacturing output will probably be lower, something like 70% of what it was before Corona.

    Exactly what I said. Globalists and bankers want to keep the source of their Wealth (Western civilization) alive and growing. They were not willing to modify society to accommodate low Whites birthrate or the creation of any kind of Whites ethono-state to help preserve Whites people legacy and genetic DNA. Profits is what matter the most to you globalist.

    Guess what globalists and bankers, your plan to replace Whites people with compliant Chinese is now backfiring. Very soon, you (globalists and bankers) will become poor and will be most likely killed by the immigrants that you let in so easily.

    Sweet justice it is for the proud Whites man that I am.

    Whites, forever, through death, life, combat and war

  4. makati1 on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 4:42 pm 

    All types of warfare, short of nukes, will be common for the foreseeable future. The ME mess is all about FFs and who controls them. The current virus attack is likely the opening of the Bio wars. Then there are cyber attacks that will only get worse, like shutting down electric systems, banking, etc. And, the ongoing brainwashing/propaganda that will make it difficult to follow who is doing what to whom. Hopefully, it will never get to the nukes, but…?

    Ah well, prep as best you can and buckle up for a bumpy ride to the cliff.

  5. JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 5:58 pm 

    Shut up Mak, why do you obsess over war and pain and suffering so much? You deserve what is coming to SE Asia. Be patient. Pass the popcorn

  6. Anonymouse on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:00 pm 

    Its getting bad here on Vancouver Island. Lots of sick people and no testing. Hospital beds are few and far between.

  7. JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:09 pm 

    Anon, just wait until the virus gets to south Florida where I live. All these old people will be really sick. There will be no hospital beds and lots of really sick people. Man I am scared. I have no preparations. I am screwed.

  8. REAL Green on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:13 pm 

    Why do we want so many Americans to be sick Davy?

  9. makati1 on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:13 pm 

    Anon, I hope you and yours are safe. The US is 3rd world, or worse. They are not even close to being prepared for a real calamity. All the US is good at are lies, hypocrisy, and ‘resource wars of choice’ to prop up the MIC and Wall Street. The empire is going down. Maybe by a foe too small to see.

    I had planned to make one last trip there this year, after missing last year, but now I am not so sure. It depends on how this shakes out by summer. Good luck and take care!

  10. makati1 on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:14 pm 

    Davy, pretending to be JuanP doesn’t work. You are too obvious. lool

  11. Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:16 pm 

    Annoy lives in Toronta REAL Green.

  12. makati1 on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:17 pm 

    The good times for the US, and Amerikans, are over, permanently. Those who have a better place to go, should, and soon. This is shaping up to be the beginning of the end for the empire, and it will likely happen fast. 2030 will see a totally different world. Buckle up!

  13. REAL Green on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:29 pm 

    Annoy lives in Quebec Davy.

    stupid

  14. Richard Guunette on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:37 pm 

    Why do we want so many Americans to be sick JuanP?

  15. JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:38 pm 

    I hate Americans and the USA

  16. JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:38 pm 

    Richard Guunette lives in Quebec

    stupid

  17. makati1 on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:40 pm 

    The good times for the US, and Amerikans, are over, permanently but Asia is far worse. Those who have a better than Asia to go, should, and soon. This is shaping up to be the beginning of the end for Asia, and it will likely happen fast. 2030 will see a totally different world. Buckle up!

  18. JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:41 pm 

    Mak, are you drinking? Your comment is not coherent.

  19. makati1 on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:43 pm 

    JuanP, pretending to be Davy doesn’t work. You are too obvious. lool

  20. More Davy ID theft and lunacy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:06 pm 

    Anonymouse on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:00 pm

    Richard Guunette on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:37 pm

    JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:38 pm

    JuanP on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 6:41 pm

  21. JuanP insanity on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:07 pm 

    More Davy ID theft and lunacy

  22. The Resistance on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:11 pm 

    JuanPee, give it up fool. You are a sore loser and got your ass kicked. You are getting your nose rubbed in your own shit. You deserve this daily. It is good for you to feel depressed and anxious. Get used to it with many more days ahead for your depression to deepen. VICTORY

  23. Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 7:30 pm 

    I give up. I am a sore loser and got my ass kicked.I am getting my nose rubbed in my own shit. I deserve this daily. It is good for me to feel REAL depressed and anxious. I am used to it now with many more days ahead for my depression to deepen. NUTTERY

  24. REAL Green on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 8:18 pm 

    We want are mommy!

  25. Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 8:26 pm 

    The sad reality is I have weaponized bad behavior by engaging in ID theft and employing multiple fake handles. This then gets used against me and the result is a forum any normal person with a rational and intelligent mind will avoid. I don’t care because for me this is about a turf war and I have nothing better to do with my meaningless widdle life.

    I like to think this is my own private forum to say and do as I please. It isn’t.

    I want this place to submit to my will. It won’t.

    If I don’t get what I want, then nobody does cus I’m special. I’m not.

    I don’t care to contribute either. I just want to have this place to myself to play mind games, copy and paste off topic spam, and pretend I’m neutering everyone else. Insane huh?

    Obviously, this is driving people off but who cares. I don’t cus I’m a liar and a hypocrite. And a selfish dumbass.

  26. REAL Green on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 8:32 pm 

    Can we please go see the docter Davy.

    Please?

  27. Chrome Mags on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 8:34 pm 

    I’ll settle for GDP cut in half, if it means the entire stupid thing doesn’t take a dive where no man wants to go. But since the current protocol is for people to hide out until the all clear is sounded, I can’t see how we get through this without calamity on a scale that dwarfs anything before. We’d be better off ignoring the virus like ants crossing a stream ignore the fact many will drown but the colony will be saved. However, since humans are emotional, not logical, we’ll all do this stupid routine of masks etc. until the whole shebang seizes up and we’re boiling water to eat freeze dried food. Sure, society wants to go there, ok so lets get crazy then.

  28. Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 8:36 pm 

    Shut up Green. I am neutering these dumb-asses so put a lid on it, ok?

  29. Duncan Idaho on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 8:41 pm 

    MILAN—The Italian government is locking down 17 million people—more than a quarter of its population—including in Milan, the surrounding Lombardy region and 14 neighboring provinces, in the most sweeping steps any European country has prepared to take against the coronavirus epidemic.

  30. makati1 on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 8:56 pm 

    ~57,000,000 deaths world wide in 2018.
    ~139,000,000 babies born each year, world wide.

    NET INCREASE of ~82,000,000 per year world wide. Google

    Seems we could lose a lot of people before the population actually decreases.

    The biggest cost of this COV19 is possibly ending globalization and economic growth as we knew it. A good thing, I think.

    Perspective. Always perspective.

  31. Davy on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 10:24 pm 

    So true makato. So true.

    How come your so smart and were such a stupid dumbass?

  32. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 10:53 pm 

    “List of OECD countries by hospital beds“

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds

    All of a sudden an interesting statictic.

  33. Abraham van Helsing on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 10:56 pm 

    In Italy a staggering 10% of those infected need intensive care, read: help breathing.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-italy-doctors-intensive-care-deaths-a9384356.html

    “ Get ready’: Italian doctors warn Europe of coronavirus impact on hospitals”

    When this is all over, we’ll be living in a different world.

  34. DT on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 10:56 pm 

    A slow down in industrial activity cuts into the “global dimming” effect. Look it up, it is a real and scary situation.

  35. makati1 on Sat, 7th Mar 2020 11:12 pm 

    “When this is all over, we’ll be living in a different world.

    I agree. And it will be at least one step down the ladder to the 3rd world for all but the 3rd world.

  36. Davy on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 5:29 am 

    “List of OECD countries by hospital beds“

    cloggo, I have been in an Italian hospital and American ones. There is a lot of difference in technology, cost, and care. The US are best on tech and care is better but at a much greater expense. I will also say the reason there are less beds in the US is the ones that are there are mostly high tech. There is a lot of procedures done in the doctor office. Many things that in some countries are considered hospital bed procedures are done in lots of doctor offices around the US. This is how you reduce cost in our high cost system. I was impressed with the Italian hospitals overall. The doctors were good and care adequate but they do not compare to a US hospital for the really bad problems. The US excels in specialty care IMA. Personally, I think the future is with the Italian model because the world is heading into a haircut period of less wealth. BTW, the Italian hospital food was excellent.

  37. Davy on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 5:45 am 

    “When this is all over, we’ll be living in a different world. “I agree. And it will be at least one step down the ladder to the 3rd world for all but the 3rd world.”

    Now you two agree. LOL. Yea when I first came out about all this, I was told I was saying the sky was falling by the usual extremist here. The reason being China is so important to the cloggo and makato in their anti-American agenda. I immediately saw how this was going to do serious economic harm and how the viral deaths were bad but not like Ebola. This is an economic pandemic type event not a viral death event like a global Ebola kind of pandemic could be. A global Ebola pandemic would have high deaths and destroyed global economy. Ebola is much more containable so it did not go global. This Covid virus will likely go global but the death rates might knock global population growth down to a minimum or a slight loss. This might go on for a few years. We are talking the globe adds 90MIL a year. Some say this virus will kill 90MIL globally. This is still debatable on if a vaccine is found and how global it goes. Yet the other issue is deaths associated with an economic depression or collapse. That will have to wait to be seen. We still don’t know how global this pandemic will go and if there is a u shape of v shape recovery. Now reality is setting in that the flu ain’t shit in comparison for makato/juanPee duo. The reality is setting in the EuropeUp and AsiaUp characters here are now EuropeDown and AsiaDown also. I said all along the US is going down. This virus will hammer the US hard that is clear. China will crash land hard and with is the rest of the world. This was happening before the virus but at a much slower rate but now it will be global and accelerated. All nations will go down relatively and in unique ways plus common ways.

  38. JuanP is stupid on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 5:49 am 

    This is from the mindless lunatic troll, juanPee:

    Davy said So true makato. So true. How come your so smart an…

    Davy said Shut up Green. I am neutering these dumb-asses so…

    REAL Green said Can we please go see the docter Davy. Please?

    Davy said The sad reality is I have weaponized bad behavior…

    REAL Green said We want are mommy!

    Davy said I give up. I am a sore loser and got my ass kicked…

  39. DonaldTrumpIII on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 6:17 am 

    my bunker is ready. Three dwarf sex slaves and 4 years worth of toilet paper and pasta!

    It’ll be just me and the cockroaches BEETCHES!

    The master race will inhabit the Earth!
    They will all be 4’6″ !

  40. Davy on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 6:38 am 

    COVID-19 in Missouri now.

    https://tinyurl.com/uwns6z5

    WE ALL GONNA DIE!!!

  41. Cloggie on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 6:48 am 

    I knew this day was coming, my tin foil hat is on and I am ready!
    The goobernmint do this to us as they want a die off before the zombie apocalypse and peak oil energy crisis!
    its so obvious man!

  42. Davy on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 6:51 am 

    So true cloggo.

    So true.

  43. Inquiring Minds Want to Know on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 6:53 am 

    @ DonaldTrumpIII

    Question: What happens to The Donald is he is in further need of public hair to scalp transplants??

    Has The Donald thought this through?

    Vanity.

  44. JuanP on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 6:54 am 

    COVID-19 is in Missouri now. You are gonna die Davy

    https://tinyurl.com/uwns6z5

  45. Inquiring Minds Want to Know on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 6:56 am 

    Previous comment in reference to following news release:

    “Intense speculation has circulated as to the origin of Donald Trump’s unique hair-doo. The Weekly Star solved the enigma by paying a source “in excess of $1 million” to produce close-up photos that show a pubic hair transplant from Trump’s scrotum sac, anus area, armpits, and upper back to his scalp. The process occurred over a six-month period and involved multiple procedures.”

    The article and photos were published in the October 2018 edition of the weekly newspaper.

  46. Davy on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 6:57 am 

    JuanP, the virus is throughout the US stupid. Miami is full of people with the virus and south Florida is one big nursing home that will become sick. Yea, stupid, you are at the center of the outbreak. I have said all along this will touch everyone. I am prepared you are not. You stupid 5th floor condo is no place to prepare. What a dumb fuck!

  47. Inquiring Minds Want to Know on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 6:57 am 

    BTW, I am juanP

  48. Inquiring Minds Want to Know on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 6:58 am 

    CORRECTION:

    @ DonaldTrumpIII

    Question: What happens if The Donald is in need of additional pubic hair to scalp transplants in the bunker??

    Has The Donald thought this through?

    Vanity.

  49. makati1 on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:00 am 

    knew this day was coming, my tin foil hat is on and I am ready!
    The goobernmint do this to us as they want a die off before the zombie apocalypse and peak oil energy crisis!
    its so obvious man!

  50. JuanP on Sun, 8th Mar 2020 7:00 am 

    I’m no longer in Miami, Exceptionalturd.

    LMAO!

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