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Page added on October 20, 2013
How An Oil Supply Crisis Could Bring Down The Global Economy
People don’t talk much about peak oil these days, now that the U.S. is enjoying a shale boom and crude oil prices are down about 30% from the 2008 peak.
Yet world oil production has basically stalled, with prices still high and emerging market demand rising, meaning the risk of a major energy crisis is still out there.
Actuary Gail Tverberg has a leading voice in the peak oil camp for years, notably editing The Oil Drum. She explained the risks of an energy crisis in an recent presentation at the Casualty Actuarial Society In Focus: Elephants in the Room conference.
In short, oil supply limits could suppress growth from here on out, moving the world from the stagflation era to 20-50 years of crisis. She advises other actuaries that “financial models in general are wrong” and “failure of financial institutions is likely.” The only alternative she sees is the discovery of a “miraculous cheap new energy” — and alternatives and nuclear have a long way to go.
Presentation given at the Casualty Actuarial Society In Focus: Elephants in the Room conference and republished with permission from Gail Tverberg. Read more at her blog, Our Finite World.
4 Comments on "How An Oil Supply Crisis Could Bring Down The Global Economy"
BillT on Mon, 21st Oct 2013 2:01 am
Actually, it will lead to the total collapse of the world economy and the end of globalization. This is as sure as the sun coming up and we are in the last days of the fall. Nothing new here for those who think.
DC on Mon, 21st Oct 2013 10:00 am
Strange, what to happened to Gail? Shes gone several posts now without once suggesting running out and buying(financing) a ‘hybrid’ to save her suburban amerikan paradise from imploding. Shes still a heartless technocrat that only cares about what the price of a barrel of oil will do her precious ‘economy’, but at least shes stopped the whole hybrid, EV, hyrdogenwhatever as saviors schtick.
I do like the emphasis given on how ‘efficiency’ has almost no effect on reduced oil consumption in the OECD. We need that message driven home to counter the nonsense we see peddled in articles here all the time.
J-Gav on Mon, 21st Oct 2013 8:06 pm
DC – Gail has evolved over the years and especially recently. Hers is now a respectable voice to be listened to and reckoned with. My reckoning on her overall take, however, still suggests she would really like growth to continue forever even as she recognizes that’s not possible. Which leads me to believe she hasn’t quite yet delved sufficiently into questions of, say, climate change and environmental destruction. I may be wrong, it’s just an impression, and it takes nothing away from the brilliant work she does on other subjects.
DC on Tue, 22nd Oct 2013 12:21 am
J,ere you suggesting she might soon come around the idea that the ‘economy’ she still obsesses about IS the problem, not the solution? I mean, that would be a signifigant step foward for her. Her only concern, and her articles are thick with it, is that high priced oil is baaaaaad. She never specifies why we would want to save the status-quo, but she clearly believes its needs saving, preferably with cheap(er) oil. Even, if like you say, she (reluctantly) admits that is not looking very likely.
You would think she would have realized by now its the effort to keep infinite growth alive that is causing the high oil prices she worries about constantly, in the first place.