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Heinberg: Our Bonus Decade
“The sense of security more frequently springs from habit than from conviction, and for this reason it often subsists after such a change in the conditions as might have been expected to suggest alarm. The lapse of time during which a given event has not happened, is, in this logic of habit, constantly alleged as a reason why the event should never happen, even when the lapse of time is precisely the added condition which makes the event imminent.”
–George Eliot, Silas Marner
It’s been ten years since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) of 2008. Print, online, and broadcast news media have dutifully featured articles and programs commemorating the crisis, wherein commentators mull why it happened, what we learned from it, and what we failed to learn. Nearly all of these articles and programs have adopted the perspective of conventional economic theory, in which the global economy is seen as an inherently stable system that experiences an occasional market crash as a result of greed, bad policies, or “irrational exuberance” (to use Alan Greenspan’s memorable phrase). From this perspective, recovery from the GFC was certainly to be expected, even though it could have been impeded by poor decisions.
Some of us have a different view. From our minority perspective, the global economy as currently configured is inherently not just unstable, but unsustainable. The economy depends on perpetual growth of GDP, whereas we live upon a finite planet on which the compounded growth of any material process or quantity inevitably leads to a crash. The economy requires ever-increasing energy supplies, mostly from fossil fuels, whereas coal, oil, and natural gas are nonrenewable, depleting, and climate-changing resources. And the economy, rather than being circular, like ecosystems (where waste from one component is food for another, so all elements are continually recycled), is instead linear (proceeding from resource extraction to waste disposal), even though our planet has limited resources and finite waste sinks.
In the minority view of those who understand that there are limits to growth, the GFC (or something like it) was entirely to be expected, since whatever cannot be sustained must, by definition, eventually stop. Indeed, the crash requires less of an explanation than the recovery that followed. Instead of skidding into a prolonged and deepening depression, the global economy—at least as measured conventionally—has, in the past years, scaled new heights. In the US, the stock market is up, unemployment is down, and GDP is humming along nicely. Most other nations have also seen a recovery, after a fashion at least. We have enjoyed ten years of reprieve from crisis and decline. How was this achieved? What does it mean?
Let’s take a look back, through the lens of the minority view, at this most unusual decade.
Where We Were
The years leading up to 2008 saw (among other things, of course) soaring interest in the notion of peak oil. Many peak oil analysts were industry experts who studied depletion rates, production decline rates in existing oil wells and oilfields, and rates of oil discovery. They reached their conclusions by analyzing the available data using charts, equations, and graphs; and by extrapolating future production rates for oilfields and countries. They generally agreed that the rate of world oil production would hit a maximum sometime between 2005 and 2020, and decline thereafter.
However, some peak oilers were ecologists (I was among this group). Informed by the 1972 computer scenario study The Limits to Growth (LTG), these observers and commentators understood that many of Earth’s resources (not just fossil fuels) are being used at unsustainable rates. The “standard run” LTG scenario featured peaks and declines in world industrial output, food production, and population, all in the first half of the twenty-first century. The peak oil ecologists therefore saw the imminent decline in world petroleum output as a likely trigger event in the larger process of society’s environmental overshoot and collapse.
The two groups shared an understanding that oil is the lifeblood of modern industrial civilization. Petroleum is central to transport and agriculture; without it, supply chains and most food production would quickly grind to a halt. Moreover, there is a close historic relationship between oil consumption and GDP growth. Thus, peakists reasoned, when world oil production starts its inevitable down-glide, the growth phase of industrial civilization will be over.
In the years leading up to 2005, the rate of increase in world conventional crude oil production slowed; then output growth stopped altogether and oil prices started rising. By July 2008 the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude benchmark oil price briefly hit an all-time, inflation-adjusted high of $147 per barrel. High oil prices starve the economy of consumer spending. And, due to subprime mortgages, collateralized debt obligations, and other factors, the economy was set for a spill in any case. Within weeks, the foundations of the financial industry were giving way. Stock prices were tumbling and companies were going bankrupt by the dozen. Most of the US auto industry teetered on the brink of insolvency. The news media were filled with commentary about the possible demise of capitalism itself.
In sum, the financial crash of 2008 looked to some of us like not just another stock market “correction,” but the end of a brief and blisteringly manic phase of civilized human existence. It was confirmation that our diagnosis (that fossil-fueled industrialism was unsustainable even over the short term) and prognosis (that the peak in world oil production would trigger the inevitable collapse of oil-based civilization) were both correct.
Our expectation at that point was that oil production would decline, energy prices would rise, and the economy would shrink in fits and starts. Living standards would crumble. It would then be up to world leaders to decide how to respond—either with resource wars, or with a near-complete redesign of systems and institutions to minimize reliance on fossil fuels and growth.
But we were wrong.
Back From Death’s Door
Instead there was a recovery, in both world oil output growth and in overall economic activity. How so?
It turned out that most peakists had been unaware of a so-called revolution waiting to be unleashed in the American oil and gas industry. Although world conventional crude oil production (subtracting natural gas liquids and bitumen) remained flatlined roughly at the 2005 level, new sources of unconventional oil began opening up in the United States, especially in North Dakota and south Texas. Small-to-medium-sized companies began drilling tens of thousands of twisty wells deep into source rock, fracturing that rock with millions of gallons of water and chemicals, and then propping open newly formed cracks with tons of fine sand. These techniques released oil trapped in the “tight” rocks. It was an expensive process that came with significant environmental, health, and social costs; but, by 2015, five million barrels per day of “light tight oil” (LTO) were supplementing world liquid fuel supplies.
This development profoundly shifted the entire global energy narrative. Pundits began touting the prospect of US energy independence. Peak oil suddenly seemed a mistaken and antiquated idea.
Moreover, while fracking was revolutionizing the oil and gas industry, debt was resuscitating the financial system. Viewing the deflationary GFC as a mortal threat, central banks in late 2008 began deploying extraordinary measures that included quantitative easing and near-zero interest rates. At the same time, governments dramatically increased their rates of deficit spending. The hope of both central bankers and government policy makers was to use the infusion of debt to revive an economy that was otherwise on the brink of dissolution. The gambit worked: by 2010, US and world GDP were once again growing.
It turned out that the fracking revolution and the central bank debt free-for-all were closely linked. Fracking was so expensive that only wells in the best locations had any chance of making money for operators, even with high oil prices. But companies had bought leases to a lot of inferior acreage. Their only realistic paths to success were to make slick (if misleading) presentations to gullible investors, and to borrow more and more money at low interest rates to fund operations and pay dividends. In fact, the fracking business resembled a pyramid scheme, with most companies seeing negative free cash flow year after year, even as they drilled their best prospective sites.
In 2013, we at Post Carbon Institute (PCI) began publishing a series of reports about shale gas and tight oil (authored by geoscientist David Hughes), based on proprietary well-level drilling information. These reports documented the high geographic variability of drilling prospects (with only relatively small “sweet spots” offering the possibility of profit); and rapid per-well production declines, necessitating very high rates of drilling in order to grow or even maintain overall production levels. Given the speed at which sweet spots were becoming crowded with wells, it appeared to us that the time window during which shale gas and tight oil could provide such high rates of fuel production would be relatively brief, and that an overall decline in US oil and gas production would likely resume with a vengeance in the decade starting in 2020. These conclusions flew in the face of official forecasts showing high rates of production through 2050. However, our confidence in our methodology was bolstered as individual shale gas and tight oil producing regions began, one by one, to tip over into decline.
In sum, without low-interest Federal Reserve policies the fracking boom might never have been possible. For the world as a whole, a steady decline in energy resource quality has been hidden by massive borrowing. Indeed, since the GFC, overall global debt has grown at over twice the rate of GDP growth. Humanity consumes now, with the promise of paying later. But in this instance “later” will likely never come: the massive public and private debt that has been run up over the past few decades, and especially since the GFC, is too vast ever to be repaid (it’s being called “the everything bubble”). Instead, as repayments fall behind, banks will eventually be forced to cease further lending, triggering a deflationary spiral of defaults. If the fracking bubble hasn’t burst by that time for purely geological reasons, lack of further low-interest financing will provide the coup-de-grace.
While low-interest debt managed to fund a brief energy reprieve and to forestall overall financial collapse, it couldn’t paper over a deepening sense of malaise among much of the public. Income growth for US wage earners had been stagnant since the early 1980s; then, during the 2008-2018 decade, wage earners in the lowest percentiles continued to coast or even lost ground while high-income households saw dramatic improvements. This was partly a result of the way governments and central banks had structured their bailouts, with most of the freshly minted cash going to investors and financial institutions. This lopsidedness in the economic rebound was mirrored in many other countries. A recent US tax cut that was targeted almost exclusively at high-income households (with another similar cut apparently on the way) is only exacerbating the trend toward higher inequality. And economic inequality is fomenting widespread dissatisfaction with both the economic system and the political system. None of the bankers who contributed to the GFC via shady investment schemes went to jail, and a lot of people are unhappy about that, too.
Further, there was no “recovery” at all for the global climate during the past decade; quite the opposite. As humanity burned more fossil fuels and spewed more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, the scale of climate impacts grew. Hurricanes, typhoons, droughts, and wildfires fed deepening poverty and, in some instances (e.g., Syria), simmering conflicts. Growing tides of refugees began migrating away from areas of crisis and toward regions of relative safety.
At the same time, technological trends drove further wedges among social groups: while automation helped tamp down wage growth, the pervasive use of social media inflamed political polarization. An expanding far-right political fringe in turn fed anti-immigrant and anti-refugee populism, and sought to exploit the disgruntlement of left-behind wage earners. All of this culminated in the ascendancy of Donald Trump as US president, joining fellow authoritarians in Russia, China, the Philippines, Hungary, Poland, and elsewhere. Globally, political systems have been destabilized to a degree not seen in decades.
Altogether, this was a deceptive, uneven, and unsettling “recovery.”
How We Used Our Bonus Decade
As already mentioned, humanity didn’t get a bonus decade with regard to climate change. While building millions of solar panels and thousands of wind turbines, we also increased our burn rate for oil, natural gas, and coal (global coal consumption maxed out in 2014 and has fallen a little since then, though it’s still above the 2008 rate). That’s because, as George Monbiot puts it, “while economic growth continues we will never give up our fossil fuels habit.” And policy makers are not willing to give up growth.
Here’s a thought experiment: If there had been no recovery (that is, if GDP had continued to plummet as it was doing in 2009), and if, as a result, demand for fossil fuels had cratered, there would no doubt have been a lot of human misery (which there may be anyway ultimately, just delayed), but there also would have been less long-term impact on the global climate and on ecosystems. As it was, atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations rose, as did the average global temperature, with devastating effect on oceans, forests, and biodiversity.
At PCI, we spent the past decade adapting our message to shifting realities. We gave a lot of thought to the transition to a post-growth economic regime, resulting in my book, The End of Growth. We also spent many hours pondering societal strategies for surviving overshoot, and came to much the same conclusion as some of our colleagues who’ve been working on these issues for decades (including Dennis Meadows, co-author of The Limits to Growth): that is, with impacts on the way, building societal resilience has to be a top priority. We determined that it’s at the community scale that resilience-building efforts are likely to be most successful and most readily undertaken. Determined to help build community resilience, we co-published a three-book series of Community Resilience Guides, as well as the Community Resilience Reader; we also produced the “Think Resilience” video series.
We analyzed the prospects for US shale gas and tight oil production via David Hughes’s series of reports mentioned above (also in my book Snake Oil), and we assessed the prospects for a transition to renewable energy in a book, Our Renewable Future, I coauthored with PCI Fellow David Fridley. In that book, we concluded that while an energy transition is necessary and inevitable, transformations in virtual every aspect of modern society will need to be undertaken and economic growth has to be curtailed in order for it to happen. We at PCI did other things as well (including producing additional videos, books, and reports), but these are some of the highlights.
I’m proud of what we were able to accomplish with the participation of our followers, fellows, staff, and funders. But, I’m sorry to say, our efforts had limited reach. Our books and reports got little mainstream media attention. And while some communities have adopted resilience as a planning goal, and Transition and other initiatives have promoted resilience thinking through grassroots citizen networks, most towns and cities are still woefully ill-prepared for what’s coming.
I’ve titled this essay “Our Bonus Decade” because the past ten years were an unexpected (by us peakists, anyway) extra—like a bonus added to a paycheck. But bonus is a borrowed Latin word meaning “good.” In retrospect, whatever good we humans derived from the last ten years of reprieve may ultimately be outweighed by the bad effects of our collective failure to change course. During those ten years we emitted more carbon into the atmosphere than in any previous decade. We depleted more of Earth’s resources than in any previous decade. And humanity did next-to-nothing to reconfigure its dominant economic and financial systems. In short, we (that is, the big We—though not all equally) used our extra time about as foolishly as could be imagined.
Where We Stand Now
As discussed above, US tight oil and shale gas output growth can’t be expected to continue much longer. LTO production in the rest of the world never really took off and is unlikely to do so because conditions in other countries are not as conducive as they are in US (where land owners often also own rights to minerals beneath the soil). At the same time, conventional crude oil, whose global production rate has been on a plateau for the past decade, may finally be set to decline due to a paucity of new discoveries.
At the same time, the burden of debt that was shouldered during the past decade is becoming unbearable. US federal government borrowing has soared despite “robust” economic conditions, and interest payments on debt will soon exceed military spending. China’s debts have quadrupled during the decade, its annual GDP growth rate is quickly slowing, its oil production rate is peaking, and the energy profitability of its energy sector as a whole is declining fast.
But that’s not all that’s happening. Let’s step back and summarize:
(1) We peak oil analysts had assumed that energy resource depletion would be the immediate trigger for societal collapse.
(2) However, climate change is turning out to be a far greater threat than we depletionists had thought fifteen or twenty years ago, when the peak oil discussion was just getting underway. The impacts of warming atmosphere and oceans are appearing at a frightening and furious pace, and climate feedbacks could make future warming non-linear and perhaps even unsurvivable. At this point one has to wonder whether the mythic image of hell is a collective-unconscious premonition of global climate change.
(3) Ten years ago we learned that debt cycles and debt bubbles are a significant related factor potentially leading to, or hastening, civilizational collapse.
(4) Now we are all getting a rapid education in the ways inequality can lead to political polarization and social instability.
As a shorthand way of speaking about these four related factors, we at PCI have begun speaking of the “E4 crisis” (energy, environment, economy, and equity). It’s no longer helpful to focus on one factor to the exclusion of the others; it’s far more informative to look for ways in which all four are interacting in real time.
Our bonus round of economic growth and relative normalcy will assuredly end at some point due to the combined action of these factors. I don’t know when the dam will burst. Nor do I know for certain whether there will be yet another fake “recovery” afterward—the next one perhaps being even weaker and more unequally experienced than the current one. And I’m not about to offer a definitive forecast for the timing of the global oil peak: one can imagine a scenario in which governments and central banks again print immense amounts of money in order to keep drillers and frackers busy. Only two things can I say with confidence: the big trends all add up to overshoot, crisis, and decline; and building personal and community resilience remains the best strategy in response.
***
When it comes to sustainability, we’re a society of distracted drivers
Driving is dangerous. In fact, it’s about the riskiest activity most of us engage in routinely. It requires one’s full attention—and even then, things can sometimes go horribly awry. The brakes fail. Weather turns roads to ice. A driver in the oncoming lane falls asleep. Tragedy ensues. But if we’re asleep at the wheel, the likelihood of calamity skyrockets. That’s why distracted driving is legally discouraged: no cell phones, no reading newspapers or books, no hanky-panky with the front-seat passenger. If you’re caught, there’s a hefty fine.
If you think you hear a metaphor coming, you’re right. We human beings are all, in effect, driving this planet. We’re largely responsible for whether it continues more or less as it is for another few thousand (maybe a few million) years, or tips rapidly into a condition that may not support human life, nor permit the survival of myriads of other creatures. But we’re not paying attention to the road in front of us. Instead, we’re distracted.
Our personal distractions are often compelling. Most of us need to make a living. We like to make time for family and friends. We enjoy a wide range of entertainment options.
Our collective distractions seem just as important. We want the economy to grow so that there are more jobs and higher returns on investments. We want our leaders to avert acts of terrorism, and if there are military conflicts we want our side to win. We have our political heroes and villains, and we spend time and money cheering our respective “teams.”
Thing is, if we collectively veer off the road and crash the planet, none of that matters. The text message we receive while at the wheel of a car may be really interesting, but reading it isn’t worth the risk of life and limb. Similarly, the economy, entertainment, jobs, sports, and politics are all fine and suitable objects of attention—as long as we first ensure that society’s speed and direction are safe and sane.F
In fact, a few people are indeed paying attention to the road ahead. Ecologists, climate scientists, and system dynamics analysts have been monitoring society’s direction for a few decades now and have been issuing increasingly dire warnings (two of the most recent ones: the Scientists Warning and the latest IPCC climate report). What lies ahead if we don’t change direction? Rising seas. Crazy weather, including worsening storms, droughts, and floods. Massive species extinctions. Threats to agriculture. Economic ruin. In short, a high-speed crash. But the experts’ urgent calls for change are largely being ignored.
If we were indeed paying attention, what would we do differently? We would make sustainability—real sustainability, not just eco-groovy gestures—our first priority. Conserve and reuse non-renewable resources. Use renewable resources only up to their regrowth rates. Protect natural systems from pollution. Conserve biodiversity. We would aim for a truly circular and regenerative economy. If it turned out that the economy were just too big to operate within those guidelines, we would shrink it (taking some time to identify ways that cause the least harm and create the greatest benefit, and ensuring that those who have gained least from our centuries-long growth bonanza get an equitable share of our reduced budget). And if the human population were too big, we would shrink that too (again, taking time to minimize bads and maximize goods).
Yes, all of this would have personal implications. We would think about population levels when deciding whether to reproduce. We would refuse any career option that undermines the survival chances of future generations. We would refrain from investing in the extractive economy. We would think about all our daily choices—transportation, meals, clothing, housing—in terms of environmental impact.
What’s so hard about that? Really, the most difficult aspect of this shift is the initial decision to make it. And once that decision has been made, plenty of improvements to daily life would likely accompany any sacrifices we’d have to make. For example, imagine how a more mindful economy would allow people to pursue their callings instead of just chasing jobs. Or consider how leading less busy lives would allow more time to spend with loved ones. We could put health and happiness on an upward trajectory, rather than consumption of throw-away consumer goods.
Rather than sharing the distractions now capturing the attention of other drivers, we must each retrain ourselves to pay attention to the instrument panel and the road ahead of us. Abandoning old habits and making new ones requires effort. But some habits are so unwise that changing them is a life-or-death affair.
Are our distractions really so important that we’d rather risk literally everything than shift our gaze toward what really matters?
42 Comments on "Heinberg: Our Bonus Decade"
Sissyfuss on Mon, 29th Oct 2018 10:53 pm
Heiny, you are asking the most rapacious, egocentric creature to ever walk this planet to change his perspective and live on less. In case you haven’t noticed, it is not happening. Nor will it.The best you can do is to fine tune your shaudenfreund and ride it on the way down. Opioids anyone?
Cloggie on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 1:57 am
The economy requires ever-increasing energy supplies
Eh no. Only a growing economy does, a contracting economy doesn’t.
The two groups shared an understanding that oil is the lifeblood of modern industrial civilization.
Eh no, only in 2018 it does.
Thus, peakists reasoned, when world oil production starts its inevitable down-glide, the growth phase of industrial civilization will be over.
Growth yes, but not industrial civilization itself.
But we were wrong.
Finally some introspection. I discovered I was wrong (because of outsourcing of thinking to Heinberg) by December 2012. The prospect of a Third Carbon Age asserted itself as a trajectory/escape route towards a “solar economy”. Expensive fossil fuel will phase itself out, yet enables a renewable energy future. Fossil fuel losing on price, certainly when we attach a price tag to it for environmental destruction.
An expanding far-right political fringe in turn fed anti-immigrant and anti-refugee populism
“Fringe”?! They took over the US and Italy, for God sake, you incurable totalitarian humanist beta-male. Populism is a legitimate defense mechanism against dispossession, like 100 years ago fascism and national-socialism were legitimate logical defense mechanisms against the horrors of communism.
Globally, political systems have been destabilized to a degree not seen in decades.
You ain’t seen nothing yet. Globalism is heading for the exits, identity will be on top of the political agenda this century, world-wide. ISIS is only a small sign of things to come.
In that book, we concluded that while an energy transition is necessary and inevitable, transformations in virtual every aspect of modern society will need to be undertaken and economic growth has to be curtailed in order for it to happen.
Perhaps you would care to take a look at the energy policies of the EU. They are currently on this planet to first address where all these issues are being addressed.
As discussed above, US tight oil and shale gas output growth can’t be expected to continue much longer. LTO production in the rest of the world never really took off and is unlikely to do
Is that so?
https://deepresource.wordpress.com/2018/08/19/the-sudden-death-of-peak-oil-4-5-trillion-barrels-of-oil-left/
There is enough left. Oil prices of $150 or higher can do wonders to the fracking industry, that could go global. No need for low interest rates.
At the same time, the burden of debt that was shouldered during the past decade is becoming unbearable.
Debt can be cancelled, which is merely bad news for unproductive old folks, who thought they could enjoy retirement. They can’t. Tough luck.
Regarding your points 1-4: there is not going to be a depletion-induced social collapse, but you will get your social collapse alright, but your leftist-humanitarian blinders will stop you from seeing that 600 pound gorilla in the room. And it is going to happen in the US first. Social destabilization will be induced because of decades of unrestricted third world immigration to the West, first and foremost to the US. THAT is what is next on the political program, not peak oil or climate change. The Western empire is facing the same political collapse as did the Soviet empire in 1989. This time the reason is not a failed economy but race. Expect the balkanization of the US, just like the USSR fell apart in 15 parts, along ethnic fractures. And in situations of civil war, not much oil is necessary/available anyway.
In 2018 it is obvious that renewable energy can and will replace fossil fuel in a few decades, likely in Europe first, with the possibility of peak oil demand by perhaps 2030. In case of economic and financial collapse, which is certainly possible, even likely, peak oil demand will coincide with that collapse.
Humanity will soldier on sadder and wiser.
shaudenfreund
Schadenfreude.
Antius on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 5:45 am
Britain completes its transition to gangster state. The state can now confiscate any property it desires from any individual with no burden of proof.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-10-28/uk-begins-confiscating-wealth-without-criminal-charges
This violates just about every human right that I can imagine. It effectively removes the right of property and the presumption of innocence at the same time. Is it any wonder that no one wants to be part of UK anymore? It is evolving into a place in which anyone that wants any kind of future has to leave.
Davy on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 5:47 am
Heinberg is a little like Kunstler saying the same thing over and over just repackaged. We see that here on this board also, me included. Not that this is all bad because it also features trial and error and a summation of experience related to original positions. I will speak about debt because there is so much in his article. Debt to me is misunderstood. Debt in a macro sense is different than for an individual but we still use the individual to relate to it. Excessive debt in a macro sense is most of all systematic imbalances related to wealth transfer and malinvestment. It is not owing more than we can pay. We are not bankrupt. What is happening is we are robbing Peter. We are making investments and saying they have value when they don’t. Good investments are not being made and should. Wealth transfer is gutting real parts of the economy as a result. Parasitic parts of the economy are feeding off of the real parts because debt allows this. “FIRE” finance, insurance, real estate, and throw in government, central banks, lawyers, and accountants nowadays and we get the parasite economy. These sectors of the economy are far too large. Debt serves these groups. We complain about individuals and their debt load but the real debt problem is with the parasites.
The parasites have created a Ponzi arrangement and this is the real problem. All Ponzi arrangements end poorly because they are built on unreality. Our civilization is a Ponzi because we are growth based on a finite planet. Our climate and ecological problems are the results of this Ponzi arrangement of ever more consumption and unsustainable consumption. A significant amount of this consumption is without a real return in regards to supporting a future of growth. We can distil this issue down to the coyote and the rabbit. The very top of civilization is benefitting. This is 1BIL or so. Sure many have been lifted out of poverty but barely. Many have experience a pseudo development and have been delocalized and now are even worse off when a decline comes. Tell me mega cities have a future.
We want to point fingers of blame but this is really a natural expression of self-organization in nature. All species will do this until the ecosystem checks the behavior. The perpetrators of this behavior are many and no one group controls this arrangement. All civilizations have succumbed to overshoot. Ours is a techno civilization so it appears different but there is no difference with the basic workings. In this regards there is no hope for our civilization because it is set on a gradient. Some deviation can occur but our late term civilization is fixed and brittle. It will take a bifurcation to open up a succession with new relationships being formed but first will be the destructive phase. We are not even having normal recessions anymore because we have gotten to the point of systematic brittleness. The next recession will be much worse than the GFC. We may not crash immediately. What we may see is the end of the plateau of turbulence where growth and decline have been mixing. We will see a shift over to real decline that is expressive. When this happens all those forces of growth will be overshadowed by decline. Decline is about dysfunctional networks, economic abandonment, and irrational policy. When the decline is systematic and dominant then we will feel it. We don’t feel it now as decline but it is present with growth. It will no longer be destructive growth it will be destruction. Once we are in it then it will be felt and the masking of it with propaganda and fake news will be over.
Our human ecosystem will likely begin to unravel much different than the GFC because this will be different than wealth transfer and debt utilized then. This might happen suddenly and violently or it might not. We just don’t know. It is likely it will be very painful for many because today we are delocalized without the local ability to produce food and energy. This means depending on how bad decisions are we might have a die down of population begin suddenly in those locations most exposed. Triage and abandonment will then become systematic. It is likely when we tip over into real decline from the growth/decline plateau population growth will be checked quickly. This will happen because of food and the economics of food.
We may have a few decades to go. I see 2019 as a year of recession. Who knows if that will be a time of self-destruction but I do see it as a time of the beginning of the decline phase of civilization where growth is buried. Peak everything will be upon us once lower economic activity is forced on us. Peak demand will cause peak resources. When peak demand and supply are together long enough then economic contraction becomes reinforcing. The degree of decline and the duration is the key to this process and like turbulence it cannot be expressed in a formula. The chaos of decline will destroy the fabric. This time around meat and bone will be affected. This will happen until a level of stability is reached. That is likely a global economy much lower than today with a corresponding lower population. It may take longer than many of us think but once on that trajectory we will find that level because this is a planetary law. In the meantime the damage that has been done to climate and the web of life will make that level even deeper. This will likely mean a sharper decline than we can relate to. The great depression we only had a few billion people and huge resources yet to tap. We have blown through all that and now have 7 plus billion people. To argue this away is fantasy.
Cloggie on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 6:11 am
“Is it any wonder that no one wants to be part of UK anymore? It is evolving into a place in which anyone that wants any kind of future has to leave.”
Move to Holland, Germany, Denmark or Norway. We handwringly need brains like yours for the energy transition. The money is good and everybody speaks English.
Davy on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 6:56 am
“China’s Economic Slump Accelerated In October, Early Indicators Show”
https://tinyurl.com/yc5ybuvy
“As corporate defaults surge, forcing a desperate PBOC to reverse its deleveraging efforts and threaten more interventions to stave off a more serious retrenchment in growth in the world’s second largest economy, it seems like not a day goes by without another warning sign that China’s economic precarious situation is even worse than we thought. The impact this has had on the mainland investors’ psyche has been obvious to all. Repeated interventions by China’s ‘National Team’ have done little to arrest the inexorable decline in mainland stocks in October, leaving the Shanghai Composite, the country’s main benchmark index, on track for one of its worst months since the financial crisis, and its worst year since 2011. Meanwhile, a flood of FX outflows has pushed the Chinese yuan dangerously close to the 7 yuan-to-the dollar threshold which, if breached, could unleash another wave of chaos across global markets. And as Chinese policy makers are probably already scrambling to pad the official stats, Bloomberg has released its own proprietary preliminary gauge of Chinese GDP in October which showed that the slowdown unleashed by the US-China trade war worsened in October.”
“All of this suggests that China’s October PMI, due out later this week, will confirm that the weakness in the China is multipronged, with consumption and manufacturing in the midst of a multipronged slowdown, after the survey-based index fell to an eight-month low over the summer. China’s increasing desperation is President Trump’s gain, as the loss of investor confidence could force Chinese policy makers to engage in meaningful talks later this year despite the government’s reluctance to even consider America’s demands. That could improve the likelihood that the elusive “major breakthrough” being sought by both sides could finally arrive. The upshot of all of this is that, unless they want to roll the dice and start arresting short-sellers and pumping an unprecedented amount of debt into its financial system, risking even more destabilizing corporate defaults, Chinese leaders will need to find a way to end the trade battle with the US – and do it soon.”
Davy on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 7:05 am
Many of the anti-American extremist here will accuse me of being a Sinophobe because they can’t look at the global economy as a whole and interconnected. This forum contains obsessed anti-American Anglos, Europeans, and angry Americans. The site itself specializes in American decline news. This creates some tunnel vision. This goes with the territory because of the US position in this late term civilization we are in. China is now the key player not the US economically. This Chinese slowdown will cascade across borders. The US and Europe will feel it too. It could end up worse in the US and Europe. It will come down to political strength once the economic damage has been done. The bigger they are the harder they fall and this is definitely the case with China. You can’t do multi-decade growth like China has and not have consequences. These consequences have been seen in the US with offshoring of manufacturing and supply chains. Consumerism has exploded and wealth and power concentrated. All this primarily because of the Chinese chapter of globalism has been a time of immense physical growth. Europe has benefited too and as another global exporter it will inevitably see pain.
2019 will likely be a recession year. Many variables are coming together with imbalances and tensions. Rates are going up. The trade war initially was about pushing forward activity in anticipation of tariffs. This will end in 2019. The effects of Trump’s tax cuts will diminish and even go into reverse. The election years ahead will bring instability starting with the midterms. There is an ongoing Eurodollar crisis in the EM markets that is only worsening with China’s decline and the FED’s tightening. Add to all this political cold wars, potential hot wars, and worsening climate. Of all these China’s decline is the biggest force economically because China has been the growth engine especially for the last decade. When the growth engine sputters so does all those other activities that require economic growth. Fasten your seatbelts 2019 could be one hell of a ride.
Sissyfuss on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 8:21 am
Thank you, your grace for correcting Shaudenfreund after my autocorrect incorrectly corrected it. You have a future in AI as a punctuation. And by the way, it’s always referred to as an 800 lb gorilla but perhaps you were thinking in metrics as is your wont. Adieu, my supercilious sycophant.
JuanP on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 11:28 am
I made the best out of every single bonus day I got, and intend to keep doing the same. It takes a while to understand how resilient humans are once you become aware of coming collapse. The population is still growing and people are still behaving stupidly. How long will this last?
Schop alsjeblieft de anti-Amerikaanse hond die ik van graniet heb on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 11:52 am
Juan if collapse happens you can moor your boat in nedertardland I hear they take anyone
Davy on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 1:28 pm
Listen up everyone.
Further to my above dictation, from this day forward anyone in the world who is rabid pro-America Empire will be referred to as “my friend”.
Anyone who is not rabid pro-American Empire will be referred to as “my enemy”.
There is nothing at all extremist about the above. dumbasses
JuanP on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 2:02 pm
I need to come clean with something. I am not white and not from Uruguay. I am brown and from Honduras. I say this now in solidarity for the migrants caravan that want a better life in the US. I understand because my life is so much better now.
Antius on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 2:03 pm
“Move to Holland, Germany, Denmark or Norway. We handwringly need brains like yours for the energy transition. The money is good and everybody speaks English.”
I am considering doing just that. I lived in Belgium for a year in my early 20s. I spent many of my weekends trekking around Flanders, Luxembourg and Netherlands. It was fun, aside from having very little money at the time. I have forgotten just about all the French and Dutch that I learned back then. Maybe it is time to leave the sinking ship that I am on.
I would have done it already, but my wife refuses to leave and buries her head in the sand. Other European countries have their own problems of course, but I cannot imagine that they are gangster states that would arbitrarily seize people’s possessions with no due process. I thought nothing else these people could do would surprise me. I was wrong. I don’t attribute them with much ethics. But to so brazenly disregard the rule of law is crossing a line. It won’t be very long now until they simply take what they want. I cannot see a future here now.
Boney Joe on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 2:18 pm
JuanP, you are one of us and we will fight for you. There are several places in Miami where a nonresidents can vote. Please get out the blue vote. We need your support so we can sweep the Trump evil away for good.
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 2:54 pm
JuanP
I knew you were a wet back you scumbag!
What does JuanP and a vending machine have in common?
They both take your money and don’t work.
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 2:57 pm
JuanP
Fuck you..Its wet backs like you that have created the far right..Maybe if you could have developed your own damn countries..Oh wait you can’t because your people are religious whack jobs..
Cloggie on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 3:16 pm
“Fuck you..Its wet backs like you that have created the far right..Maybe if you could have developed your own damn countries..Oh wait you can’t because your people are religious whack jobs..”
Juan is from Uruguay, probably of southern European descent and even if he wouldn’t, he is civilized and thoughtful person.
And can fight back.lol
Talking about the “far right”, do I have a treat for you! A fresh Richard Spencer and Jean-Francois Gariepy podcast:
https://youtu.be/FC9Ol1ou5j8
Davy on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 3:27 pm
The above post was not JuanP. I can vouch for that. JuanP and me used to be best friends until about a year and a half ago when I really started to lose my shit. Juan is from Uraguay and one and the finest people that could ever call America their home. He’s a much better American then I could ever dream of being.
Sorry for losing my shit Juan.
Schop alsjeblieft de anti-Amerikaanse hond die ik van graniet heb on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 3:31 pm
هذا ليس ممتازا من الواضح
JuanP on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 3:31 pm
Thanks cloggie, Nazis need to stick together.
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 3:42 pm
Clogg
You really like men don’t you? Are a you dick sucking faggot?
Here is your boy Spencer get his shit blasted by Grity!
https://i.redd.it/kr99n3phjnu11.gif?fbclid=IwAR2clWlw6dJdEHv2r9C6TMgjSH4DKt8RkSXQCejHGFXXn0FX4tF091q-zyA
Grity is gonna get some!
The youth are on the socialists side..
The right is made up of senile old low iq morons..
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 3:43 pm
JuanP
All I care is that you mow my grass on time..You cocksucker!
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 3:46 pm
The EU’s unstoppable showdown with Italy risks a market crash and a euro break-up
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/10/24/eus-unstoppable-showdown-italy-risks-market-crash-euro-break/
Goodbye Europe! I hope you like eating boiled rat Clogg!
HAHAHA!
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 3:47 pm
guys if i have tons of money, you’d think i’d fly my own hondajet around the world to enjoy the rest of my life, but i’m a hard worker, i understand the value of work that’s why i own a lawn care company in FL. When I’m not working, I hang out with my old lady in a tiny boat down the river. We don’t believe in waste so we don’t shower often. that’s just how we roll. once you’re honorable aryan you get away with everything. i have a one way ticket to nedertardland if i want to but i’m not deciding on that yet.
Antius on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 3:54 pm
JuanP, I don’t live in the US, but I have been there enough times.
One of the things that has always shocked me is the extreme divisions of wealth. On a trip to Florida, I drove past enormous mansions on the waterfront. Each mansion had it’s own little quay with boats docked, as well as several acres of immaculately tended grounds with each property. I drove a few miles down the road. And I came to a huge shanty trailer park, full of absolutely poor people, with dirty clothes and what seemed to be the very basics of life. Many of them seemed to be living in cars. In the space of a few miles, it was like stepping into a completely different world.
Unless those Latinos have something lined up in terms of a work visa and job waiting for them; they aren’t going to be enjoying anything worth having by coming to the US. They will be filling shitty trailer parks and working for dirt wages. If you have a specific skill that is in high demand, can get a work visa and really don’t mind working 60 hours a week and having no holidays; then America is a good place to be. I was offered a job there paying $200,000 per year. I could have made a fortune if I hadn’t minded going a few years without any kind of outside life. But go there without a skill and without a work visa and you could be in a worse situation than you would be at home. The place is shockingly third world for a large number of people. And to make matters worse, they come face to face with extreme wealth every day that they know will never be theirs.
I AM THE MOB on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 4:10 pm
Antius
Don’t worry when the oil shortage hits soon..The rich will be hanging from the trees!
LMFAO!
Cloggie on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 11:43 pm
“You really like men don’t you? Are a you dick sucking faggot?”
Not really. But anything that gets your kind destroyed geopolitically makes me very happy. That’s where Richard comes in:
https://youtu.be/Xq-LnO2DOGE
He calls himself a European and wants a white ethno-state. That’s where his and our (continental European) interests coincide.
Europe and Russia are largely scrubbed clean, now comes the third and last part, North-America, the “topic” of CW2/WW3.
https://goo.gl/images/o6LRX5
So, you wanted to destroy us?
https://youtu.be/NXPclOY4oBk
With the internet around?
“Don’t worry when the oil shortage hits soon..The rich will be hanging from the trees!”
You probably mean (((Marc Rich)))?
Or (((Denise Eisenberg-Rich)))?
https://goo.gl/images/vhEQ3J
(warning:graphic!)
makati1 on Tue, 30th Oct 2018 11:59 pm
Yes, the US has been given a 10 year bonus via the printing press. But it was a setup for the fall. The Great Leveling of the US.
“Are our distractions really so important that we’d rather risk literally everything than shift our gaze toward what really matters?”
Answer: YES! BAU until the USS Debt goes down for the last time. The most spoiled people on earth will not give up their toys until they are swimming in the icy sea of reality. Then it will be too late. Few will survive the slide to a Bangladesh world.
Cloggie on Wed, 31st Oct 2018 12:18 am
I’m more worried about dystopian China than has-been ZOG-USA:
https://www.geenstijl.nl/5144631/hadden-we-al-gezegd-dat-1984-geen-handleiding-was-ja-he-al-84-keer/
China, a soft-USSR with a functioning economy.
Cloggie on Wed, 31st Oct 2018 2:44 am
Geopolitics for dummies:
https://documents1940.wordpress.com/2018/10/31/eric-kaufmann-on-white-shift/
makati1 on Wed, 31st Oct 2018 3:34 am
Apparently I am not the only one who thinks WW# is a good possibility.
“The actions that are taken are a three-pronged attack in order to foster in global governance, and they are as such:
Create ubiquitous electronic surveillance with unlimited police power
Throw the entire earth into an economic tailspin
Destroy all nationalism, national borders, and create chaos among all nations prior to an “incendiary event” or series of actions that leads to a world war.
The world war is the most important part of it all, in the eyes of the globalists….The war is most needed by the globalists because they need to rid the world of about 7 billion people.”
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/surveillance-economic-turmoil-and-chaos-among-all-nations_10292018
“Soon will come the issuance of internal passports….If you think travel papers are not coming along, think again….Just remember: every fence that keeps something out can also keep something in.”
“The globalists are getting what they wish: consolidating the resources while they “tank” the fiat economies and currencies of the nations….They are destroying cultures by making them question themselves! The greatest tactic imaginable!” – Jeremiah Johnson is the Nom de plume of a retired Green Beret of the United States Army Special Forces (Airborne).
WW3? We shall see. Are YOU prepared?
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 31st Oct 2018 3:40 am
Steve Bannon reportedly drew a crowd of 25 people for a speech at a Holiday Inn in Kansas
https://www.businessinsider.com/steve-bannon-topeka-kansas-rally-at-holiday-inn-attendees-2018-10?fbclid=IwAR2TSf-FnVqSmD7I8lSAhs9Iz95q0-5j3D5acC66RVa4QahqYNG-jphTqGk
HAHA!
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 31st Oct 2018 4:00 am
Steve Bannon’s groupies at an event in Kansas
https://i.redd.it/nd926833vfv11.jpg
Clogg thinks these people are going to defeat the worlds richest most powerful and win a civil war?
HAHAHA!
Cloggie on Wed, 31st Oct 2018 4:39 am
“Clogg thinks these people are going to defeat the worlds richest most powerful and win a civil war?”
Mob thinks these people are going to defeat Eurasia for the kikes.
I have seen these kind of people lining up for the Louvre in Paris. Not very impressive folks. I seriously even think that 150 cm North-Vietnamese could beat the US, I honoustly think that, although I know you are going to laugh now in disbelief.
But you are right, I absolutely do NOT believe that US white insurgents could beat ZOG, UNLESS they get external “help”, lining up against Washington. Like:
China having a good time with Formosa, Philipines and Down Under. And then there is Vancouver as a forward base in North-America for Chinese landgrab. Chinese, like Russians, Eastern Europeans, Italians or Spanish have no talent for multicult. For that you need Protestant capitalist fools, who seriously believe in “Freedom of Religion” and humans as “resource” for their giant corporations, irrespective of identity.
Mexico. Remember the Zimmermann telegram?
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimmermann_Telegram
That was a desperate German attempt to bring Mexico into war with the US in order to keep them from fighting against them in Europe. This time we have tens of millions of Aztek identitarians inside the US, who would live to get the nod and the weapons from PBM and restore 1820 borders.
Furthermore, there are black-nationalists, our Anonymouse1 could be one of them as he never whines about slavery and always talks about the jew-knighted states. He fould opt for a nlack ethno-state centered around capital Atlanta.
And then there is demoralized whitey. They could not win without decisive help from Europe in 1776. But wait, PBM could provide such help again. First weapons, this time not smuggled via Dutch Sint Eustatius, but via “ally” Mexico. And troops to finish it off.
I call it a plan.
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 31st Oct 2018 5:37 am
Clogg
You are a mental basket case..I guess making up baseless conspiracies about everything must be your only antidote to nihilism..
The only reason the populist are winning is because their countries economies are in a depression and are going to collapse.
Fascism is capitalism in decay..
-Lenin
Cloggie on Wed, 31st Oct 2018 6:37 am
“You are a mental basket case..I guess making up baseless conspiracies about everything must be your only antidote to nihilism..”
You are not refuting my views with arguments… because you don’r have any.lol
Check
Why don’t you run to you Marxist buddies at reddit and seek cerebral help.ROFL
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 31st Oct 2018 8:26 am
Eurozone Growth Slips to Four-Year Low, Fueling Crisis Fears
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/30/business/eurozone-economy-gdp.html?ref=oembed
Clogg’s region is falling apart while he squeals about Soros and immigrants..because that is what the billionaire owned propaganda tells him too..
Richard on Wed, 31st Oct 2018 10:58 am
Wishful thinking I think, we are mostly too self interested.
Cloggie on Wed, 31st Oct 2018 1:56 pm
“Steve Bannon reportedly drew a crowd of 25 people for a speech at a Holiday Inn in Kansas”
25? I don’t see no 25 deplorables….
https://youtu.be/ivB57Bl_vuE
I AM THE MOB on Wed, 31st Oct 2018 2:22 pm
Clogg
Here are Bannon groupies
https://imgur.com/a/5jzEkiI
Like I said..Your movement is made up of senior citizens..The youth is on the socialist side..You cant win a civil war with elderly people..
LMFAO!
Cloggie on Thu, 1st Nov 2018 1:17 am
Like I said..Your movement is made up of senior citizens..The youth is on the socialist side..You cant win a civil war with elderly people..
Currently old people vastly outnumber young snowflakes. A man can fight (with a gun) until 70.
And again, we don’t want to WIN a civil, it is about a SPLIT. And everybody in the world wants to see the Great Satan go and that is why the white right and their secession movement will get global support. We are near the US Vukovar/Slaviansk moment.
Again, it will likely happen shortly after the end of the Trump presidency, especially if that end happens “irregular”.
I AM THE MOB on Thu, 1st Nov 2018 5:24 am
Clogg
People over 60 in America make up less than 30 percent of the population..
You are out of your fucking mind..You have been brainwashed by charlatans..
This is why you won’t get your WW2 theories verified by an independent expert..You know you have been brainwashed by lies..