Heinberg: Most-Likely Scenarios for US

Oil exporters are using an ever-greater proportion of what they
produce to satisfy growing domestic demand for fuel. That means
that even if world crude oil production can remain on its current
plateau of about 75 million barrels per day for another decade, the
amount available to importing countries will inexorably dwindle. And
this in turn will lead to bitter competition among oil importers for the
remaining world export capacity. We can already tell how that
contest will likely go:
“U.S. net oil imports fell at 4.3% per year from 2005 to 2008 (from
12.5 million barrels per day to 11.0 mbpd), while [China and India’s
combined] net oil imports rose at 9% per year from 2005 to 2008
(from 4.6 mbpd to 6.0 mbpd). If we extrapolate these two trends, at
these rates Chindia’s net oil imports would exceed U.S. net oil imports
some time around 2013. It’s also helpful to express Chindia’s net oil
imports as a percentage of (2005) top five net oil exports. Chindia
went from importing the equivalent of 19% of the combined net oil
exports from Saudi Arabia, Russia, Norway, Iran and the UAE in 2005
to importing 27% of their combined net oil exports in 2008. If we
extrapolate this trend, Chindia would be net importing the equivalent
of 100% of the combined net oil exports from Saudi Arabia, Russia,
Norway, Iran and the UAE some time around 2019.”
Which will leave the U.S. out in the cold (with only a little help from
Canada), relying almost entirely on its own domestic oil production—
which can’t grow much even if we drill in every last offshore wildlife
refuge. Finally, mission accomplished! We’ll be almost entirely off of
foreign oil in only a decade. And getting there won’t require political
courage

MuseLetter #218 / July 2010 by Richard Heinberg
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