Has Production Peaked?

In his paper “Big Geology for Big Needs,” published in the February 1964 AAPG BULLETIN, A.I. Levorsen projected total United States oil demand of 22 million barrels per day in 2000, with U.S. oil supply of 14 million barrels per day (see figures, left).

Levorsen’s demand number appears remarkably accurate, only slightly higher than current forecasts. But his supply number contrasts sharply with average 1999 U.S. oil production of just over 5.9 million barrels per day.

The difference? Levorsen expected a much higher rate of oil discovery during the past 35 years, and anticipated a much lower level of imports.

AAPG