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Page added on August 14, 2010
Gregor: The Ascent of Middle East Food and Energy Demand
At the EIA’s International Energy Outlook (IEO) presentation this May the issue of future oil exports from OPEC nations came up, and in an interesting way. Readers may be familiar with the phenomenon of declining net exports, from major oil producing nations, as a result of internal demand from growing, domestic populations. The phenomenon was modelled last decade by Jeffrey Brown and Samuel Foucher. Their Export-Land Model showed that the rate of decline from oil exporters can become quite accelerated. While that may seem obvious, it was a point worth making last decade when it was widely presumed that gross production from large oil producing nations was largely available for export. The tipping, of both the UK and Indonesia, from net oil exporters to net oil importers should have put an end to such a presumption. More importantly, the rise of domestic oil consumption in Saudi Arabia was also a warning. Saudi oil exports have declined now for five years.
One Comment on "Gregor: The Ascent of Middle East Food and Energy Demand"
KenZ300 on Sun, 15th Aug 2010 12:33 pm
The worlds limited resources of oil, water and food are coming head to head with an ever expanding world population growth.
The worlds resources that were adequate for a world population of 5 or 6 billion people becomes quite limited when trying to supply a world of 9 billion people.
When resources become scarce nations will stop exporting them and will keep them for themselves.
A good example of this is this years wheat crop from Russia.
Some Oil exporting countries will soon become importing countries.