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Page added on July 19, 2018
Global Population Growth Ceased In 1988…Population Has Only Grown Older Since Then
The world stopped growing about 1988… and has only grown older since.
Global births, per five year periods, according to the UN.
Births and UN medium and low variant estimates through 2040…plus my best estimate of the most likely births. Despite the significantly larger (older) total population, births continue to languish and appear set to decline. Since 2000, total births are declining everywhere except Africa.
Assuming the UN medium variant…chart below shows births by Africa, S. Asia (India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal, Iran, Sri Lanka) and the world minus Africa / S. Asia..
Or, looking at births by GNI (gross national income) per capita. Only the poorest nations are having more children, while all other nations (by income) are having significantly fewer (high income and upper middle) or stalling (lower middle income nations).
The next charts below show the child bearing populations, from high, upper middle, lower middle, and low income countries (based on 2016 GNI per capita, detailed by the World Bank HERE).
For the high income countries, peak annual growth in the child bearing population took place as of 1963, but the total child bearing population didn’t peak until 2009. The population capable of child birth will continue falling through at least 2030 and likely far longer.
The upper middle income countries peak annual growth took place as of 1985 and the total child bearing population also turned negative in 2009…and again will continue declining indefinitely.
Lower middle income countries peak annual child bearing population growth took place in 2000 and annual and total growth continues to decelerate.
Low income countries annual child bearing population growth is still rising and not likely to peak until around 2040, while the total child bearing population will continue rising until perhaps 2060.
Finally, the best proxy for economic activity is energy consumption. The chart below shows actual and EIA estimate energy consumption through 2040. Clearly, the population growth in S. Asia (lower middle income) and particularly in Africa (low income nations) has not and is not anticipated to result in significant energy consumption or economic activity.
What that looks like as a %.
Somebody should write about this stuff.
99 Comments on "Global Population Growth Ceased In 1988…Population Has Only Grown Older Since Then"
Duncan Idaho on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 11:17 am
Kinda mathematically challenged?
With roughly 83 million people being added to the world’s population every year, the upward trend in population size is expected to continue, …
I have issues with “expected to continue”
GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanSpecieDieGracefully on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 11:55 am
I will appear that white people have been successful at white self extermination.
I saw a city garbage during with two black people in the cab. Usually the driver is white and the garbage collector is whatever race. Today the driver was black and so was the garbage collector.
A week ago was having a coffee alone in a small public area. Not many white. At what point I was surrender by Arab people and I was the only white.
White people are dying off faster then anticipate and it is getting more difficult to ignore.
The following comment is made by a white women.She is encouraging her children to
not reproduce.
slim pickings in Canada but at least i can teach my kids not to waste their time putting any focus on relationships and that will free alot of time and money , relationships and marriage and having kids is extremely overrated not sure really why anyone in their right minds would want to waste a second of life on any of these things other then we are completely programmed in every way that this is what we are to do . FREE YOURSelfs !! I do think people are getting smarter though and wiser i know many young people both male and female that know from young ages they do not want anything to do with relationships and i think that is very very wise i am in my 50s and wish i have been given the option to choose .
Taken from this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DjVgoZnRRJU
I never been so proud to be white. White are seeing the futile of life. I salute you all white people where ever you are. Keep up the good work.
GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanSpecieDieGracefully on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 11:56 am
I forgot, for you personal enjoyment
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ylGkm2EHHvE
Bloomer on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 12:08 pm
It the human race reached peak population that would be good news for the planet.
onlooker on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 12:11 pm
What this article is saying is preposterous.
PIP: The 1988 UN population revision estimates that the total population of the world in mid 1988 is 5.1 billion persons and that the annual rate of increase is 1.7% for 1987-1988.
The current world population is 7.6 billion as of July 2018 according to the most recent United Nations estimates elaborated by Worldometers.
Growth by births is happening!
MASTERMIND on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 12:42 pm
The last law of nature says: that any creature that despoils and outbreeds its natural habitat will be culled to bring its numbers under control and restore a stable environment.
http://worldpopulationhistory.org/carrying-capacity/
Outcast_Searcher on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 1:26 pm
If “this stuff” is pure nonsense, as though a steadily growing global population is not growing, then NO, ‘this stuff’ shouldn’t be written about.
Just making stuff up doesn’t make it true.
Bob Jonesme th on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 1:40 pm
So the “whites” are blaming “blacks” like trained moron when the article clearly states that China is driving energy consumption and Africa will have little to no impact.
But, for race hating garbage, it’s easy to blame the black man rather than the stupidity and incompetence and waste of the white man.
Why don’t whites blame themselves or the Chinese, or is that too logical and sensible?
Sissyfuss on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 1:48 pm
The article obviously is from an economic perspective which must never allow reality to threaten the cornucopian vision. Now how can we turn a profit on the 6th Mass Extinction?
GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanSpecieDieGracefully on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 1:54 pm
You are not too bright Bob. Must a black low shit IQ inbreed loser. Black and Arab will be majority of the population in western world very soon and are now moving into position of power. Who is the mayor of London.
Now shut you mouth dumb nigger and make the world a better place by inventing something new. Maybe black and Arab could invent a new economical system base on energy exchange instead of money.
It is not a white man world anymore. We are the minority now. The planet belong to you black, Arab, Asia. Do what you want with this planet. White are killing themselves and stop reproducing. We white people, are giving this planet to Black,Arab and Asian. Very soon other race will be in control,
Why are you complaining
Antius on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 2:03 pm
“The world stopped growing about 1988… and has only grown older since.”
The world population clearly did not peak in 1988. It has increased well over 50% since then. However, we are now close to a peak in working age population and are some way past it in most non-primitive countries.
It will be very difficult to maintain a growing economy with declining working age population, because labour productivity growth is gradually trending to zero in most ‘advanced’ economies. This is most probably due to shrinking of affordable energy per capita. Productivity growth requires that we magnify human labour using energy consuming tools. If energy is too expensive, the investments will appear unprofitable.
Sissyfuss on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 2:20 pm
Which means, Antius that we shall see a Renaissance in the return of child labor.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 2:51 pm
GetAVasectomyAndLetTheHumanSpecieDieGracefully
The white man can’t jump, sing, due comedy, play sports, run..He has turned into a fat tub o lard with a micro penis..that is why woman all want to hook up with the brothers..
LMFAO!
Bob Jonesme th on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 3:29 pm
The Whining White Boy is complaining about the mess he has made of the Earth. But, somehow, it is someone else’s fault? What a cowardly piece of garbage.
Fucking up the Earth means high IQ and intelligence?
Only in the mind of the race-hating walking garbage you find in Europe and the United States. With filth like that burning up the world’s resources, how can things get worse?
It is kind of infuriating that scum like that to get breed and eat spreading more hell.
Antius on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 3:35 pm
“Which means, Antius that we shall see a Renaissance in the return of child labor.”
You may be right. Except, there are fewer children now. Since 2005, practically all increases in per capita income in the UK and US, are the result of people working more hours to make ends meet. Retirement age is gradually creeping up. Maybe child labour is next.
My children seem to spend their lives playing computer games. Getting them to lift a finger is difficult. Maybe a proverbial ‘holiday in Cambodia’ is what they need.
peakyeast on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 4:14 pm
Another way of looking at it if this is correct: The world has only grown dumber since 1988
onlooker on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 4:21 pm
Economic growth is now counterproductive
tommytommywantshismommy on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 4:31 pm
My kids are extremely lazy. I want to put them to work in a coal mine but my wife says no. Stupid women.
Fanti on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 4:52 pm
The human brain is in retreat. But just a little leavening in the bread can make a lot of fluffy loaves.
Caretaker society run by a few bright humans, lots of AIs, and lots of robotics and ubiquitous computing. Most brave new world people will be living in high rises and taking “Soma” to keep them happy and satisfied with their lives.
Virtual reality sims make them feel fulfilled in every way. Truly a paradise that Mao and Stalin could never have dreamed.
onlooker on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 5:52 pm
Fanti, Not brave new world, NO world. Earth’s vitality is being decimated
Makati1 on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 6:10 pm
Fanti is another dreamer who seems oblivious to the real world. There is no future for humans. The resource store shelves are about empty and the climate controls are going wild.
I watched a hurricane form off the coast of North Carolina and move north just last month. That should not happen. The Atlantic is hot all the way to Nova Scotia now. 21.8C (71.2F)
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-90.66,23.19,435/loc=-40.356,45.601
Is “Fanti” short for fantasy? lol
Makati1 on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 6:46 pm
The charts say it all. The “developed” countries are moving down. The “developing” countries are moving up. Obvious if you look at real stats.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 6:53 pm
Madkat
Asia joined the party way to late..And they are the worlds largest oil importer..and when the oil shortage comes they will be crushed like a paper bag..
Makati1 on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 7:38 pm
MM, they are not too late. Asia is positioned to move up even when the Us moves down. Asia is more than China. It is half of the world’s consuming population. You need to read more than Us’ MSM propaganda sites.
http://www.world-newspapers.com/
Do you personally know that China is using all of the oil it buys? No.
Do you personally know that Asia will go down with the Us? No.
Do you believe all of the Us propaganda against the Us’ new “enemy” China? Yes.
Go you believe all of the anti-Russia propaganda put out by the Us’ MSM? Yes.
Do you think for yourself? Questionable.
Any intelligent, mature reply?
MASTERMIND on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 8:01 pm
Madkat
Yes I do know Asia will go down because of numerous science studies..And the limits to growth models..
https://imgur.com/a/pYxKa
You are the one who has no evidence ie reason to think Asia can survive..
MASTERMIND on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 8:14 pm
Madkat
Do you think the US will just sit back and watch itself collapse and not use their worlds largest military?
Or do you think they will pro active and take take what they need?
China is going down hard.. A couple nukes in and a few million dead bodies later..They will tap out..
Makati1 on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 8:21 pm
No, MM, you do not “know” that Asia will go down. You can only guess, from the writings of others, what might happen. And, most of what Americans see and read is pure propaganda. Brainwashing is another term to describe it.
You only “know” what is happening to MM. You do not “know” what is happening to me or anyone you are not intimately associated with, like a wife. You cannot “know” what living in another country is really like unless you live in that country. You can only take the word of others who might be writing for money, not facts.
Comments here are opinions. Not facts. If you read them as facts, you could be misled. like my location hints. You can assume I live in the Ps, but you can never “know” that unless you come here and meet me.
Look around you with an open mind and eyes and see for yourself what I post about the slip slidin’ Us as truth, not exaggeration. Denial does not change the message. Nor does killing (putting down) the messenger.
I have watched the world, and the Us, for more than twice your lifetime, MM. I have a perspective you will not have for another 35 years. If you live to be 74, you will understand that last sentence.
Makati1 on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 8:29 pm
MM: “Or do you think they will pro active and take take what they need?”
The Us is about done “taking”. Russia, China and a few others are ending the Us ability to plunder at will. The only way the Us can take from say, Russia, is by nukes and the Us would be radioactive glass in less than an hour if it tried.
The Us is finished. It is only a matter of time until it’s financial system collapse’ and it joins the 3rd world totally. It is already happening in slow motion, but it is speeding up. At some point it will go over the cliff. Soon, I hope.
MASTERMIND on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 8:31 pm
The difference between patriotism and nationalism is that the patriot is proud of his country for what it does, and the nationalist is proud of his country no matter what it does; the first attitude creates a feeling of responsibility, but the second a feeling of blind arrogance that leads to war..
-Sydney J. Harris
MASTERMIND on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 8:45 pm
Madkat
You deny all of the science that proves the collapse will be global because you are afraid..
That is what happens when you become an old geezer..
MASTERMIND on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 9:56 pm
Madkat
Looks like a Ponzi scheme’: China’s debt mountain is growing
“China’s economic growth was largely driven by debt and its corporate debt looks like a Ponzi scheme,”
https://www.smh.com.au/business/markets/looks-like-a-ponzi-scheme-china-s-debt-mountain-is-growing-20180719-p4zsdh.html
Makati1 on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 11:53 pm
MM, This “old geezer” prepared for it. You are not. I never said it would not affect most of the planet, but it will definitly hurt those with the most to lose, like the Us. You are living on 4 times your share of the world’s resource. What happens when it is lees than even one times that resource waste? Chaos. Civil War. 3rd world or worse.
BTW: Economics is NOT a science, it is a bunch of chicken guts readers who only know what happened AFTER it has happened. All they can see is the rear view mirror. Only suckers believe them.
If they were so good at prognosticating the ups and downs, they would all be multi-billionaires, not working for a paycheck. Ditto for “financial “advisors. Anyone who advises you on how to “invest” YOUR money should be asked to show you what their net worth is. If they are not multi-billionaires, they are selling bullshit.
Do you EVER tihnk for yourself? There is no signs of it. Keep reading the Us MSM propaganda about Russia, Iran and China and then wonder what happened when the SHTF and you are on the street and/or radioactive. Remember that 3AM flash? LMAO
Makati1 on Thu, 19th Jul 2018 11:55 pm
BTW: Davy and MM, if you cannot address me by my Makati1 tag, I will ignore your bullshit.
Sorry MM, I cannot type MASTERMIND without laughing so I will stick to MM.
MASTERMIND on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 12:02 am
Madkat
That article wasn’t from the US even..It was Australia’s largest newspaper..You are to afraid to handle the truth..You have become soft as butter..And your country is going to fall hard as well..And you will fold like a paper bag..
You are afraid..And you should be..You will not live through the collapse..Your shit will be stolen and you will be beaten/eaten..
Makati1 on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 12:43 am
No, I know the truth, MM. Just because it comes from an American lap dog country, does not not make it true or false. The Aussies are torn between whom to side with, but they are starting to side with China, a close neighbor and major trading partner, not a dying country 8,000 miles away.
You are the one scared shitless, MM. You are seeing the collapse of the Us all around you. I am not living in that country now. I’m in one that will suffer less when the SHTF. I have no reason to be scared. I would be if I lived in the chaos that the Us is becoming.
“Fentanyl-Related Deaths Double In Six Months; Officials Warn The Third-Wave Will Be A “Crisis””
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-17/fentanyl-related-deaths-double-six-months-officials-warn-third-wave-will-be-crisis
“Portland Police Union President: “Our City Has Become A Cesspool” Due To Homelessness Surge”
http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/police-union-president-laments-that-portland-has-become-a-cesspool-as-west-coast-cities-struggle-with-an-unprecedented-surge-in-homelessness
“Farmers Battle WORST Drought In 100 Years: ‘It’s Dire!’”
http://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/farmers-battle-worst-drought-in100-years-its-dire_07192018
I could go on and list hundreds of Us collapse items…
Bob Jonesme th on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 1:30 am
The United States has been slowly contracting since the 1970s.
They hid it in the 1980s with easy credit & drugs.
They hid it in the 1990s with the internet, and Y2K and NAFTA.
They hid it in the 2000s with the War on Terruh & the Housing Bubble.
They hid it in the 2010s with Bailouts & the Stock Market bubble.
The net result is the average consumer gets a lit bit poorer with each passing year, without any protest, any fight, any complaint.
And who do Americans blame? Everyone but themselves.
Makati1 on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 1:33 am
Well said, Bob. It really got going about the time Nixon ended the gold standard in 1971.
Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 2:21 am
“BTW: Davy and MM, if you cannot address me by my Makati1 tag, I will ignore your bullshit.”
Then why are you not ignoring me? Senior moment?
Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 2:23 am
“BTW: Economics is NOT a science, it is a bunch of chicken guts readers who only know what happened AFTER it has happened. All they can see is the rear view mirror. Only suckers believe them.”
Pretty unscientific comment there 3rd world.
Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 2:24 am
“The United States has been slowly contracting since the 1970s.”
references bobby J?
Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 3:19 am
“Trump’s Trade War May Spark A Chinese Debt Crisis”
https://tinyurl.com/yayyu6fk
“the massive burden of debt will drag the economy into recession is as obvious as the empty towers that rise on every landscape. Precise estimates are difficult, since the government’s dedication to the optics of invincibility induces financial institutions to push debt into alternate, opaque channels. But on any metric, the amount of new lending each year grows faster than the economy, and the interest newly owed exceeds the incremental rise in GDP. In other words, the whole economy is a Ponzi scheme. Many analysts point out that the Chinese government owns everything, including the banks, and can just issue renminbi to infinity to keep the economy solvent. The flaw in that argument is China’s role in the global economy: It’s the world’s biggest exporter and second-biggest importer. The currency acts as the interface between the domestic and international economies, and its value is a matter of supply and demand.”
“It is tempting to see the recent yuan depreciation as a strategy to blunt the effect of U.S. tariffs, but really, the capital account is of much greater import to China Inc. than the current account. China’s central bank will almost certainly try to pull back the exchange rate in the near term: Authorities care more about the pile of reserve gold, successful stock-exchange debuts for Xiaomi Corp. and Ant Financial, and lucrative bond issues than about the private and largely foreign-owned companies that dominate exports. The truth is that China has followed a mercantilist trading policy since Mao Zedong. Most significantly, the investment splurge in the reform years helped political elites rake billions off the forced savings of the Chinese people. That was enabled by incoming capital, and there is no indication that will change. Until now, China has managed to keep its huge raft of nonperforming debt afloat thanks to capital inflows, as successive waves of quantitative easing pushed dollars into the world. A tighter dollar would seem to make the bursting of China’s credit bubble an inevitability. When that happens, the renminbi will have to depreciate sharply. This will have a deflationary impact on the world. It will also lead to a decline in China’s share of global GDP, dramatically reduce the nation’s demand for commodities, and diminish its role on the international political stage. Much about Chinese trade practices is genuinely unfair. But the inequity flows as much from U.S. policy favoring big corporations at the expense of workers as it does from Chinese structural subsidies. Both are difficult problems to address — much harder than penalizing exports. No one will benefit when China shrinks and turns inward. Trump should be careful what he wishes for.”
Makati1 on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 4:59 am
“Nationally, the CDC expects 2017 opioid overdose-related deaths to surge to an all-time high of 49,000.”
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-17/fentanyl-related-deaths-double-six-months-officials-warn-third-wave-will-be-crisis
“The epidemic is so concerning that opioid-related deaths have shifted the overall life expectancy rate for the US lower for the second consecutive year.”
War on Drugs? What war? Slip slidin’…
MASTERMIND on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 5:23 am
Davy
Stop spamming this board with zerohedge garbage..you are as dumb as madkat..you unsophisticated moron..
Makati1 on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 5:29 am
Bloomberg, yep, a reputable source of facts about China. NOT!
Use of the words: “may spark”,”Precise estimates are difficult”, “will almost certainly”, “would seem to make”, etc. tells the reader that this is all conjecture, not fact. More Us propaganda against China. Truth will be realized in the future, one way or the other.
https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-07-19/trumps-trade-war-may-spark-chinese-debt-crisis
The second half of the article is trying to prop up the USD, which is failing along with the empire. Greed is killing the Us, not trade.
MASTERMIND on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 5:57 am
Madkat
You just shoot the messenger to any news of anything critical of China..You are weak minded and afraid..typical old geezer who is well past his peak..
Antius on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 6:02 am
” “You just shoot the messenger to any news of anything critical of China..You are weak minded and afraid..”
Who does that sound like Millimind? Does it sound anything like the man that half an hour ago told us not to bother listening to Zerohedge, because it says things he doesn’t like? A man who couldn’t do well in life and therefore wants the world to end so he can roam the wasteland raping women?
Dooma on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 6:14 am
Roger Jamjet, why don’t you give China bashing a rest and go back to bombing innocent civilians?
Seriously, it is getting very tiring.
Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 6:16 am
“Bloomberg, yep, a reputable source of facts about China. NOT!”
3rd world attacking the messenger without any backup just shows you are emotionally upset with the news.
Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 6:18 am
“Stop spamming this board with zerohedge garbage..you are as dumb as madkat..you unsophisticated moron..”
mm, stop spamming the board period. Most of your comments are offtopic, hateful, or noise.
Davy on Fri, 20th Jul 2018 6:26 am
“Roger Jamjet, why don’t you give China bashing a rest and go back to bombing innocent civilians? Seriously, it is getting very tiring.”
Dumba, I guess your attack got lost in translation and sounds rather like something a dork would say. Roger Jamjet??? The bombing of civilians is a lame shot and typical of you. Do you know what a dork is? I think my referenced article on China is highly valid especially for an Australian considering how closely tied your economies are. It is valid for the world because China is a top importer and exporter. This article also goes on to give Trump warnings on the consequences of his policies if taken too far. I imagine you didn’t understand the article. I imagine you and 3rd world did not even read it. People of agenda don’t take the time to understand ideas they just look for the opportunity to attack the messenger.