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Page added on May 25, 2020
Global Oil Demand Hasn’t Yet Peaked, Energy Watchdog Predicts
Global oil consumption hasn’t peaked, the head of the International Energy Agency warned, throwing cold water on hopes the coronavirus will cap demand and reduce climate-changing emissions.
“In the absence of strong government policies, a sustained economic recovery and low oil prices are likely to take global oil demand back to where it was, and beyond,” Fatih Birol said in an interview.
The world consumed last year nearly 100 million barrels a day of oil, and some in the energy industry believe that could mark the peak for global demand. Their hypothesis is that the coronavirus outbreak will trigger changes, like widespread working-from-home and less overseas travel, reducing consumption permanently.
“Could it be peak oil? Possibly. Possibly. I would not write that off,” the head of British oil major BP Plc, Bernard Looney, told the Financial Times.
If true, that would have huge implications for climate change as burning less oil would permanently reduce greenhouse emissions, easing the way to meet the goals of the Paris climate agreement. But Birol warned governments that the coronavirus will only reduce oil demand briefly, with consumption dipping in 2020 to about 91 million barrels a day, before rebounding in 2021 and beyond.
“Behavioral changes in response to the pandemic are visible but not all of them are negative for oil use. People are working from home more, but when they do travel, they are more likely to be in cars than public transport,” he told Bloomberg News from Paris. “Videoconferencing will not solve our energy and climate challenges, good government policies might.”
Birol is urging governments to use their economic recovery packages to fight climate change, spending on green energy to help to achieve the goals set in the 2016 Paris accord.
The more ambitious target set under the Paris climate agreement — limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius — will require annual global emissions to be reduced by about half by 2030 and to hit net-zero around the middle of the century. Without deep structural changes, emissions are expected to rise again when economies recover.
The oil industry is making sweeping changes in an effort to adapt itself to the Paris climate goals, with major companies including BP, Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Total SA promising to cut emissions significantly and investing more into renewable energy as they come under pressure from more ecologically conscious shareholders. Still campaigners warn the cuts are unlikely to be enough to keep temperatures from raising to dangerous levels.
“If there’s a strong economic recovery, American business consultants using Zoom will not compensate for 150 million new urban residents in India and Africa traveling, working in factories and buying products transported by trucks,” Birol said.
Birol drew parallels with the 2008-09 crisis, when oil demand also suffered a major annual drop, before consumption increased again. The economic recovery packages didn’t focus back then on green energy and savings, missing an opportunity to tackle the challenge of climate change.
The IEA, which advises the world’s richest countries on energy policy, is sticking to its view that global oil demand will continue to increase over the next decade or so, before reaching a plateau around 2030. In a report published in November 2019, the agency said global petroleum consumption was likely to reach about 105 million barrels a day by 2030 and about 106 million by 2040 in the absence of new government policies.
In its 2019 long-term analysis, the IEA assumed significant oil savings from the sale of new vehicles over the next two decades. The use of more fuel-efficient engines would knock out 9 million barrels a day of demand, while the growth of electric cars would displace about 4 million a day. But the current economic crisis is likely to reduce car sales for a while, keeping less efficient clunkers on the road.
“Fewer car sales means older cars stay on the road,” he said.
9 Comments on "Global Oil Demand Hasn’t Yet Peaked, Energy Watchdog Predicts"
makati1 on Tue, 26th May 2020 4:00 am
“Economic activity across the country has collapsed, GDP is shrinking at the fastest pace on record, and the economic data is worse than anytime in history. Every sector of the economy is contracting and every economic indicator is pointing down. According to economist Nouriel Roubini, the country is headed towards a decade of “depression and debt”, and that is probably an understatement.
What prompted our leaders to follow the path of China? Were they bullied into it by Dr. Fauci and the Vaccine Gestapo or were they simply reacting to the sudden rise in Covid cases that skyrocketed overnight? … Small and mid-sized businesses are folding by the thousands, the states are drowning in red ink, and more people are currently unemployed than anytime in the country’s 244 year history. The lock-down has effectively obliterated the economy and left the country in ruins.
The American people have yet to grasp the magnitude of the devastation caused by the lockdown but, soon, it will be the only topic of conversation. Most people left their jobs thinking they would return to them in a matter of weeks. They never imagined that a policy blunder would put the economy into a vicious death spiral that would terminate their livelihoods, dampen their prospects for the future, and reduce them to hopelessness and destitution. They never thought that such a nightmare was possible, especially since they were just following the orders of their governors and the affable Dr Fauci. They trusted these people. They put their lives in their hands and they were misled, duped into believing that these “experts” knew what they were doing when, all-along, they were making it up on the fly. Now we’re all going to pay for the mistakes for which they alone are responsible.”
https://www.globalresearch.ca/lockdown-turned-america-despotic-cash-strapped-basket-case/5713970
“After observing the reaction of the America people, over the last two months, to a virus that will not kill 99.97% of them, I wondered how could a country created upon the blood and courage of patriot farmers and leaders who knew they would hang if their revolution failed, have degenerated into an infantilized nation of obedient slaves to un-Constitutionalized authoritarianism. It saddens me that a country borne by revolutionary means against an overbearing authoritarian monarchy has turned into a nation of bed-wetters curled up in their basements sucking their thumbs, begging government overlords to protect them from a virus.
I guess it shouldn’t be surprising after decades of government public school indoctrination where U.S. History facts have been usurped by feelings, diversity and gender agendas pushed by less than mediocre teachers. Government controlled education hasn’t taught children to think critically or question authority, but to obey rules and allow emotions to drive their actions. When multiple generations have been programmed to feel, rather than think, using panic and fear to make them do as they are told isn’t a difficult task. This pandemic reaction is a testament to their decades long propaganda and misinformation campaign. Rather than developing herd immunity the country developed a herd mentality.”
https://www.theburningplatform.com/2020/05/24/what-would-cool-hand-luke-virgil-hilts-do/#more-218197
Nuff said…
makati1 on Tue, 26th May 2020 4:03 am
Scuze the long paste but it conveys the idea that the US is in the shitter and swirling down the path to the sewer. Indoctrination has made sheep out of patriots. I’m glad I am not there to witness the suffering to come. Reading about it is bad enough.
Richard Guenette on Tue, 26th May 2020 10:22 am
Americans are in denial of their own country. They live in a fake democracy (It is a dystopic hellhole disguised as a false utopia).
Richard Guenette on Tue, 26th May 2020 10:28 am
the education system in America is fake.
Davy on Tue, 26th May 2020 10:33 am
JuanP this is for you:
Re: China is finished… This is the End of China
by REAL Green » Tue 26 May 2020, 10:32:41
JuanP wrote:
I have never had any problems buying bacon in the USA. .
LOL
JuanP wrote:
China is one of the four original human civilizations. It has lasted thousands of years. We will all die and China will still exist.
An emotional response with no scientific basis. IOW somebody loves China and hates the US as a matter of personal position.
JuanP wrote:
I think Americans should start worrying about the USA’s demise, not China’s. The USA will be finished long before China, and it will be finished by Americans. I have been witnessing the Americans destroying the USA for over three decades now; the trend is quite clear for anyone with an open mind.
More raw emotions without any rational support. The way the world is today means the US and China’s survival are interconnected. That is simple systems science. Just because China has an old history does not mean it will survive as-is. Just because somebody does not like the US does not mean it will be finished.
Sock Buster on Tue, 26th May 2020 10:34 am
Richard Guenette = JuanP
Richard Guenette on Tue, 26th May 2020 10:22 am
Americans are in denial of their own country. They live in a fake democracy (It is a dystopic hellhole disguised as a false utopia).
Richard Guenette on Tue, 26th May 2020 10:28 am
the education system in America is fake.
JuanP on Tue, 26th May 2020 10:39 am
French Intelligence Warned Of ‘Catastrophic Leak’ From Wuhan Lab
Eleven years before the joint construction of the Wuhan Institute of Virology, French intelligence services warned Paris that China’s reputation for poor bio-security could lead to a ‘catastrophic leak,’ according to the Daily Mail. In 2004, the EU’s chief brexit negotiator, Michael Barnier, ignored those warnings – signing off on the lab’s construction when he was the French foreign minister. According to the report, French intel also warned that Paris could lose control of the facility, and that Beijing could even use it to make biowarfare weapons. And in 2015, as the laboratory prepared to open, those concerns were realized after the French architects of the project said the CCP had shut them out. In fact, 50 French scientists were supposed to help the Chinese run the laboratory properly, but never ended up going. The Mail discovered Barnier’s involvement in the Wuhan Institute of Virology during an in-depth investigation into French connections to the lab – where many believe the coronavirus escaped from, as the WIV housed a group of scientists who received international condemnation for creating chimeric strains that could infect humans. Under the ‘escaped’ scenario, an infected WIV employee unknowingly brought it into the Wuhan wet market, exposing what would become roughly half of the first known cluster of cases.
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/french-intelligence-warned-catastrophic-leak-wuhan-lab
More from the Lunatic on Tue, 26th May 2020 10:49 am
Davy on Tue, 26th May 2020 10:33 am
Sock Buster on Tue, 26th May 2020 10:34 am
JuanP on Tue, 26th May 2020 10:39 am
Duncan Idaho on Tue, 26th May 2020 8:34 pm
We are not at peak–
That happened in Nov of 2018 (C+C).
Until that is exceeded, we are past peak.
We shall see, but it looks to be in the rear view mirror.