Peak Oil is You
Donate Bitcoins ;-) or Paypal :-)
Page added on September 10, 2014
Global Food Supply May Not Meet Escalating Demand
As the world population continues to grow, by about 1 billion people every 12 to 14 years since the 1960s, the global food supply may not meet escalating demand — particularly for agriculturally poor countries in arid to semi-arid regions, such as Africa’s Sahel, that already depend on imports for much of their food supply.
A new University of Virginia study, published online in the American Geophysical Union journal, Earth’s Future, examines global food security and the patterns of food trade that — until this analysis — have been minimally studied.
Using production and trade data for agricultural food commodities collected by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization, the study reconstructs the global food trade network in terms of food calories traded among countries.
“We found that, in the period between 1986 and 2009, the amount of food that is traded has more than doubled and the global food network has become 50 percent more interconnected,” said Paolo D’Odorico, a U.Va. professor of environmental sciences and the study’s lead author. “International food trade now accounts for 23 percent of global food production, much of that production moving from agriculturally rich countries to poorer ones.”
D’Odorico noted that food production during that more than two-decade period increased by 50 percent, “providing an amount of food that would be sufficient to feed the global population with an increasing reliance on redistribution through trade.”
The study provides a detailed analysis of the role of food trade in different regions of the world, with maps showing areas of food self-sufficiency and trade dependency.
D’Odorico and his co-authors demonstrate that most of Africa and the Middle East are not self-sufficient, but trade has improved access to food in the Middle East and in the Sahel region, a vast, populous, semi-arid region stretching across the central portion of the African continent that otherwise would not be able to produce enough food for its populations.
The investigators found, however, that trade has not eradicated food insufficiency in sub-Saharan Africa and central Asia.
“Overall, in the last two decades there has been an increase in the number of trade-dependent countries that reach sufficiency through their reliance on trade,” D’Odorico said. “Those countries may become more vulnerable in periods of food shortage, such as happened during a food crises in 2008 and 2011, when the governments of some producing countries banned or limited food experts, causing anxiety in many trade-dependent countries.”
The food crises to which D’Odorico refers were caused by extreme climate events that brought drought conditions to several food-exporting nations, including Russia, Ukraine and the United States.
He found that 13 agricultural products – wheat, soybean, palm oil, maize, sugars and others – make up 80 percent of the world’s diet and food trade. He also found that China is greatly increasing its consumption of meat, which already is changing land-use patterns in that country – meat production requires significantly more land area then crops.
“Fats and proteins tend to increase with the economic development of emerging countries,” he said. “An increase in consumption of animal products is further enhancing the human pressure on croplands and rangelands.”
D’Odorico notes that some countries, such as the U.S. and Brazil, are “blessed” with climates and soils that are conducive to high agricultural yields, and also the technologies – industrial fertilizers, sophisticated large-scale irrigation, new resilient cultivars – and financial resources to sustain high yields, and therefore are major exporters of food to agriculturally poor nations. However, as populations grow and climate change brings currently unforeseeable changes to growing conditions, it is possible that exports to other nations could be reduced.
“The world is more interconnected than ever, and the world food supply increasingly depends on this connection,” D’Odorico said. “The food security for rapidly growing populations in the world increasingly is dependent on trade. In the future, that trade may not always be reliable due to uncertainties in crop yields and food price volatility resulting from climate change. Trade can redistribute food, but it cannot necessarily increase its availability.”
31 Comments on "Global Food Supply May Not Meet Escalating Demand"
ghung on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 7:46 am
David Korowicz – Trade Off: Financial system supply-chain cross contagion – a study in global systemic collapse…. I think our food systems are especially vulnerable to the processes described in this study. Humans hoard food, generally, before anything else, and food production/distribution is especially vulnerable to all sorts of disruptions.
A lot of things need to go right for everyone to get fed, especially in the pre-post-industrial age.
Davy on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 8:02 am
G, I second the Korwicz read. I add with this Ebola deal folks here should read:
“Catastrophic Shocks Through Complex Socio-Economic Systems: A Pandemic Perspective”
David Korowicz
It is going to come down to loss of complexity of distribution and fracturing of economies of scale from energy intensity loss both conditions will raise costs, limit investment, and narrow distribution channels. Food is a particularly vital element to stability and growth. Like liquid fuels and water it will be the variable that leads to crisis the swiftest. It will show up in almost every productive effort as Liebig’s law states. Being a farmer myself I can tell you from experience when the modern industrial system shrinks my operation will shrink. There is no way to increase food production when any of the vitals shrinks. In fact the shrinkage will be nonlinear because of abandonment and dysfunction of production and distribution. Units of production will fail and production will go undistributed for lack of means of transport or place to go. We really are facing a catastrophic bifurcation situation with food and liquid fuel shortages.
Kenz300 on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 9:51 am
Endless population growth is not sustainable.
The world adds 80 million more people to feed, clothe, house and provide energy for every year..
Around the world we can find a food crisis, a water crisis, a declining fish stocks crisis, a Climate Change crisis, an unemployment crisis and an OVER POPULATION crisis.
Overpopulation facts – the problem no one will discuss: Alexandra Paul at TEDxTopanga – YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNxctzyNxC0
bobinget on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 10:09 am
Fuel prices are falling. Why? Supplies are ‘adequate’.
EIA supply and inventory report:
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsrsummary.pdf
Shows ‘only’ a one million barrel shortfall. Two point five were predicted. This ‘bearish’ sentiment took oil prices down another two bucks. The overall market knows as we all should, huge price spikes are coming as a result of supply disruptions.. Not because of Mideast
or African ‘terrorist’ activities but simply market forces.
The word is out. Cut exploration budgets to the bone.
How much longer can oil companies borrow to pay dividends? Not much.
Oil traders are playing directly into V. Putin’s next move. This is life and death for Russia and Iran for most of their revenue comes from the sale of oil and gas. Traders are being played like kittens with a toy mouse on elastic.
IMO the inevitable oil spike will cripple western economies. Unlike shale happy Saudi Arabia, sanctioned Russia won’t pretend to increase production
to”help the US economy”.
I know the thread is food. Same thing.
Watch Iran and Russia.
Northwest Resident on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 10:19 am
Replace “may not” with “will not” in this article’s title. Considering the fact that the only way we barely manage to feed 7 billion-plus people today is with the aide of vast quantities of oil, combine that with the fact that oil resources are diminishing while the population continues to increase exponentially, and we logically arrive at a point in the future where global food supply most definitely will not meet the escalating demand. In the meantime, adding to the FUBAR situation, we have record-setting droughts, farmland being wasted by industry and poor farming practices, entire species being pushed into extinction on a nearly daily basis, global temperatures rising due to human activity — the list goes on and on. We’re reaching a breaking point, a point beyond which the world as we know it can not continue. I suspect the change will come quickly, suddenly, with little warning — and food (or lack thereof) will be a primary catalyst.
Davy on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 10:27 am
Bob, Russia and Iran are playing a fools game if they are playing the energy weapon trick. It does not work for importers and or exporters. The global economy we all depend on does not work with trade, finance, and war games. They may get their high prices but then they will get collapse with a country full of energy but lacking a diversified economy to reboot to. Both countries have their own comparative disadvantages. We know there energy advantages. Imagine what Russia is thinking with a huge continent size country to defend in a collapsed BAU. Think of all those Chinese poring over the borders. Poor Iran has so much energy but no water. Last I heard you can’t drink oil. You can eat it indirectly but not without water.
Plantagenet on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 11:57 am
Most population growth today is occurring in poor regions of Latin American and Africa. The population of the the US and EU would be stable or even slightly shrinking if not massive immigration from the poor regions.
noobtube on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 1:31 pm
Here come the army of race supremacists blaming Africa, for the problems that the United States and Europe are causing.
Who eats more food… Africa, Europe, or the United States, by energy?
Americans are fixated on mass murder, genocide, and destruction.
Well, not only does Africa and Latin America eat the least amount of food, by energy consumption, for any group in the world… it is so little, that one American eats the same as 50 Africans and one European eats enough for 20 Africans. All of this by imbedded fuel costs.
That’s not including how much waste Americans create, compared to Africans or South Americans.
Now, if the Americans are eating most of the world’s food, who is going to be suffering the most if there is a shortage of energy for food production?
But, it is much easier for the Americans to indulge in fantasies of master race final solutions, than to accept the reality that their asses are going to be in a world of hurt when oil gets even more expensive.
Food in the United States and Europe is almost becoming barely food.
Cheese is not cheese.
Chocolate is not chocolate.
Meat is not meat.
Ice cream is not ice cream.
Chicken and sausages are a paste.
Cookies and cakes come from a chemical lab.
Can you say Monsanto, Archer Daniels Midland, and Union Carbide?
GMO, anyone?
Africa won’t be in the same boat. In fact, the South will not really notice too much difference, with the fall of the United States. The bonus is the disappearance of these monsters infesting their lands, with their garbage lifestyles, arrogance, and degenerate behavior.
Perk Earl on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 1:33 pm
“Shows ‘only’ a one million barrel shortfall. Two point five were predicted. This ‘bearish’ sentiment took oil prices down another two bucks.”
bobinget, I’ve been wondering lately if the oil traders know something the stock investors do not, namely the overall world economy is either recessionary or headed there, with less oil demand in the offing.
Remember in 08 when the price dropped from 147 into the 30’s. I’m sure since then these traders are closely watching signs that might suggest a slow down or market correction.
Perk Earl on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 1:38 pm
Just looked up oil prices:
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy/
Today Brent -1.50 to 97.66
& WTI -1.32 to 91.43
Northwest Resident on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 2:00 pm
“Oil traders are playing directly into V. Putin’s next move”
Just opened Yahoo home page. Top article featured is “Russia tests ICBM as Putin says nuclear deterrent must be maintained”
This is MSM, controlled and operated by TPTB for the benefit and manipulative intents of TPTB, attempting to crank up the fear level in the general population. That’s my opinion. I believe that Putin is in league with other national leaders and TPTB, and there is a plan being implemented that a whole lot of people aren’t going to like when/if they ever figure out what the real goals are. So, they crank up the war fervor, they hang the cloud of nuclear war over everybody’s head to keep the fear level high, which enables them to pull off strategic moves that would otherwise be very difficult to explain without actually admitting to the truth. And of course, admitting the truth is exactly what world powers and TPTB must not do, otherwise the whole world will immediately switch to panic mode. That’s going to happen anyway, but TPTB are hoping to get some big rearrangements enacted before TSHTF. Again, just my opinion, based on intuition and the knowledge that when it comes to TPTB and world governments and the MSM puppets, nothing is ever what it seems to be.
steve on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 2:31 pm
peak I am watching the same thing and it is making me very nervous…a low oil price will do more damage to oil than a high one…
MSN fanboy on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 3:02 pm
Noobtube, if it werent for Europe and America constantly progressing with technology etc…
We wouldnt have global warming, nukes.. sounds good.
We also wouldnt have all those Africans being born etc… so Africa would be in a better position.
I agree, The imperial agressors were too kind, should have left you dirt poor and throwing spears at each other.
MSN fanboy on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 3:03 pm
Nothing like a bit of natural selection, eh noob?
Perk Earl on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 3:15 pm
‘Global Food Supply May Not Meet Escalating Demand’
Drawing from a line in Seinfeld,
“Ah, that’s a shame.”
Davy on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 3:32 pm
Noob, you act like Africans can’t stand up and be adults. Africans need to practice some cultural restraint with procreation. Having a large population is a luxury as much as over consuming. Noob you have the bold face to say we can have large families but you should not enjoy consumption. I presume you are African or a Muslim fanatic but I believe you are definitely a condom mistake. Noob you are a low life that wants something for nothing. You are a magot who chooses the blame game and name calling instead of responsible constructive ideas. Condom mistakes like you are what is dragging the world down today.
Northwest Resident on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 3:41 pm
Davy — noob is an example of blind rage run amok. We can assume that noob has been used and abused and bitch slapped and relegated to shit shoveling duties his entire life and never had the intelligence or the motivation or the opportunity to climb out of the cesspool of misery that he was born into. Which is why he lashes out in rage and blame and irrational accusations — he’s so far down in the shithole of life that he can’t see what is really happening. I suppose we should pity miserable lowlifes like noob, and all the many millions of others who are in his same position. They will be among the first that get sucked up by Darwin’s Law when TSHTF. Until then, we just have to endure the stench and the pathetic sight of folks like noob.
noobtube on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 3:46 pm
Imperial aggressors were kind? Sort of like mass murdering, genocidal trash were kind? Sounds like something a psychologically dysfunctional scumbag would say. Oh, look, that describes an American.
And, look what the result of those imperial aggressors were.
All of them got their asses kicked right back out of Africa… nation after nation, WITHOUT world war, WITHOUT nuclear weapons, WITHOUT massive destruction. Just need to clean out South Africa of the remaining filth, their last bastion.
Nothing lasted because those imperial aggressors had about as much lasting power as any other coward with a temporary advantage.
But, that is what happens, when you are worthless filth. You can’t do anything good that makes a difference over the long-term. But that trash can certainly do lots of long-term damage, unlike Africans (or Pacific Islanders, or Tasmanians/Aborigines, Western Hemisphere Natives).
And, natural selection is going to be real interesting in fat land, AKA America.
These land beasts, calling themselves Americans, are going to be in a world of hurt when they can’t plop their fat asses, in their personal cars, to go get that slop, from Wal-Mart/Krogers/McDonalds, because the gas is too expensive.
The quality of food is higher in Africa, they don’t need all that garbage Americans NEED to stuff their faces, the costs are dirt cheap, and the land is much less damaged from industrial farming, pollution, and engineered crops.
But, the racist degenerate cannot admit Africans or Latin Americans or anyone for that matter, are better. Why? Because American Exceptionalism states your skin color gives you magical powers over hunger, disease, and poverty.
Well, American trash are fools and they will get the results from being trash and fools.
Maybe Americans can go run into the woods, with their dogs, and wipe their butts with their hands, while bathing once a year, like they used to do.
Or, they can use all their guns to murder each other because they are all so racially superior to everyone else.
Either way, Americans are doomed.
Enjoy the results of your stupid behavior.
The world will smile at your misery.
What is with the American fascination with dogs?
J-Gav on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 3:52 pm
Ghung – “A lot of things need to go right.” That’s for sure.
Oh dear, oh dear – just when so many thing seem to be going wrong!
I don’t discount the remote possibility of a smallish miracle to help out in some measure, but pain there will be, and plenty to go around. Strange that people in general feel such a puny inclination to prepare for it, isn’t it?
dissident on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 4:25 pm
Some clown mentioned natural selection. LOL. The 3rd world subsistence farmers are the ones who are going to see the least amount of difference during the collapse of the oil age. There will be plenty of natural selection in the oil addicted 1st world.
But the legacy of the “civilized” 1st world will be climate change that will f*ck over all of humanity in the coming centuries.
Davy on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 5:03 pm
Yea dis, sure, your tird world subsistence farm that relys on basic food import to survive because his plot is far too small to make ends meet because there is huge population overshoot in his tird world country. Dis and noob we are all in this together friends. You may as well get used to that unfortunate reality
JuanP on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 5:45 pm
I just purchased 27 large cans of freeze dried fruits and meats for my food hoard. I decided to spend some of my devaluing dollars in more peace of mind.
My wife quit her job of ten years at the end of August, and has cashed her last payroll check. She will work as an independent contractor for the same company from now on. That will allow us to spend time building our micro permaculture farm next year. Buying land and selling our condo is the next step.
We decided to buy a small cheap place in the Florida highlands around the lakes area, and start from scratch. No structures, septic, well, or utilities of any kind, we will build everything new. We will be 100% off the grid.
MSN fanboy on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 5:45 pm
With Global warming were all in this togeather dissident.
African or American.
Famine takes no discrimination. Noob, you would be wise to remember this. Death for an American is the same Death for an African, a Muslim, a European. Semantics is all you argue.
Northwest Resident on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 7:39 pm
JuanP — Sounds like you’re making great progress. I’m going to be checking back regularly to keep track of your progress. BTW, I’ve bought more bags of vermiculite, mixing it into my raised planters slowly but surely, not in the quantities that might be the very best, but I’m guessing that a few bags for every planter will really help with the moisture retention and breaking up that hard dirt next time around.
Davy on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 7:45 pm
Awesome Juan with the food investment. I also recommend some wheat buckets, a coffee bucket, and the basics like sugar, powdered milk, shortening powder…. Man so much stuff that can be bought. You are a lucky man to have a wife bought into your plan! Have you thought about having grid availability as an option? With most of your usage AltE.
Davy on Wed, 10th Sep 2014 7:47 pm
NR/Juan, buying vermiculite myself. Garden is about done so now it is prep time for next year. Thanks for the advice.
Norm on Thu, 11th Sep 2014 1:24 am
If they have no bread, let them eat cake?
Davy on Thu, 11th Sep 2014 5:03 am
Juan/NR, one other thing maybe you can tell me from your all’s research what oil is best for long term storage. Oil is a very important part of the diet. I have been thinking about coconut oil powder but nowhere have I seen how good its shelf life is. I am looking for 10 year are better shelf life. If SHTF in any case I plan on immediately going out and investing in quantities of cooking oil and light corn syrup. The corn syrup is for my whiskey still. No folks I am not a moonshiner making whiskey now because that is illegal but if things fall apart I will. I will also plan a pot patch but again it is not legal now but I suspect someday it will not be an issue. Pot and alcohol are good trade items. I do not do either. I would also consider tobacco growing but at the moment it is not economic.
JuanP on Thu, 11th Sep 2014 8:16 am
Davy, I have a few buckets of assorted grains on Mylar bags with Oxygen absorbers, including wheat, and a hand mill to grind them.
I don’t have an answer for your oil question, I have the same question. I have never had oil go bad on me. I will find out.
I would consider access to grid electricity a plus, though I know from my energy budget I won’t need it after construction is finished. Being off grid is a life long goal, and I am willing to adjust as necessary, as long as I have A/C. I have years of planning, experience on my boat, and measuring consumption with my Kill A Watt.
I have brought forward my plans a little bit because of recent trends that have me a little worried.
JuanP on Thu, 11th Sep 2014 9:08 am
Article on olive oil:
http://recipes.howstuffworks.com/how-olive-oil-works3.htm
Kenz300 on Thu, 11th Sep 2014 12:20 pm
Quote — “As the world population continues to grow, by about 1 billion people every 12 to 14 years since the 1960s, the global food supply may not meet escalating demand ”
————————
Maybe …….just maybe endless population growth is the problem that needs to be addressed.
Endless population growth is not sustainable.
Around the world we can find a food crisis, a water crisis, a declining fish stocks crisis, a Climate Change crisis, an unemployment crisis and an OVER POPULATION crisis.
The worlds poorest people are having the most children. They have not figured out the connection between their poverty and family size. If you can not provide for yourself you can not provide for a child.
Overpopulation facts – the problem no one will discuss: Alexandra Paul at TEDxTopanga – YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fNxctzyNxC0