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Page added on March 18, 2020
Global Economic Consequences of COVID-19
The panic resulting from the events starting with the deaths in Wuhan keeps spreading globally faster than the spreading of the virus itself. Quite apart from the immediate health dangers, now a new economic danger looms large globally. We are facing the prospects of a deep and lasting global recession regardless of the health policy and economic policy measures taken by China, the US and other countries unless there is timely global cooperation and coordination. What will be the global economic impact of COVID-19 if swift and effective action is not taken globally? Is there a way to find out through some kind of rigorous model-based economic analysis?
Haider A. Khan
Indeed there may be a sober reality-based way of looking at the possible economic consequences. In work that is still ongoing, I have used the best available data from the World Bank, the IMF and other national and international sources about the Global Economy to do precisely this exercise. My preliminary results pertain to the overall effects for the World economy, China, the US, the Middle East as well as for specific sectors. More importantly, they also give us some rough insights into what the panic might mean for the major regions unless we take effective global action quickly.
In order to assess the impact, I have derived several sets of model-based counterfactual results. My work which is ongoing can be seen as a first step in analyzing the impact of COVID-19 rigorously. Aggregate consequences for the Global, Middle-Eastern(ME), EU and US economies in terms of output and employment losses are estimated from several models for several scenarios. These are both the containment costs and costs stemming from global panic with higher and lower bounds and an in-between scenario. Finally, a more complex economic systems model with explicit banking and financial sectors is used to analyze the financial systems scenarios.
It is clear that China will suffer the most. But so will Japan, the Middle East, the US and EU economies along with many other smaller economies. Hence there is no reason for the rivals of China to rejoice.With maximal containment costs and panic, Chinese GDP will decline by several percentage points. EU will lose about two percentage points and US about between one and one and a half per cent.But some of the model results already at hand should give thoughtful ME, US and EU citizens pause. With declining oil prices, the oil producing economies are already experiencing economic downturns. The direct and indirect effects of COVID-19 will worsen this trend.
As a first approximation, my current modeling results show that the easing of monetary policy and implementing expansionary fiscal policies—even if they are imposed immediately and coordinated globally— will take about six months to kick in and will lead towards the very low loss scenario, especially for China. But for EU and the US financial firms, the loss will be considerably more than what we have seen so far. The corresponding loss in global employment in these and other sectors should also give all countries pause.
While medical and public health professionals struggle to understand the nature of the virus and devise antidotes, strong economic measures need to taken globally and within countries to protect vulnerable groups. A coordinated interest rate cut will most probably happen; but monetary policy can not by itself help increase global investment and output. Tax cuts will help but will take time even if they are wisely designed to help not just the global rich but the middle class and the low income groups. Fiscal policies through direct government expenditures targeted to specific sectors and groups will be necessary.
Furthermore, trade policies are important too. If trade barriers go up because of this panic reinforcing earlier hostilities then all countries will be losers. The hostilities against China may well be heading in that direction. Likewise, some countries might try to counteract the loss in exports by devaluing their currencies. Such moves can rapidly expand through the international system creating a competitive devaluations scenario where no one will ultimately win.
Consider also the role that trading networks have always played. Clearly, with globalization these networks of firms across the globe are even more important than before. With a large scale disruption the dynamics of network trade may easily break down. Since networks require time to build up again, such large scale disruptions will result in longer term malfunction of the global trading system.
The world leaders must act quickly and resolutely before it is too late. We are facing the possibility of a vicious downward cycle in the global economy. Single countries can act and indeed have acted unilaterally, for example the US by cutting interest rates citing an emergency situation. But global coordination of monetary, fiscal, trade and exchange rates policies is sorely needed. If there was ever a time to devise globally coordinated policies through cooperation among US and China(G-2), the G-7 and more broadly, the G-20, it is now.
102 Comments on "Global Economic Consequences of COVID-19"
JuanP on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 8:45 am
Posting pictures of pink poodles on lame unmoderated Internet forums is not a sign of being a deranged lunatic.
I SWARE ITS NOT!!! It is a sign of how far into mental illness I have gone and how screwed I am. Think about this, mentally ill in a pandemic living in a high rise in Miami Beach with few supplies. That is why I am the pink poodle
fuckwacks
Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 8:51 am
Same logic in Britain as in the Netherlands:
waitress –> strawberry picker
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8134285/Farmers-call-army-Land-Girls-boys-help-pick-fruit-veg.html
“Farmers call for sacked hospitality workers to be turned into army of Land Girls – and boys – to help pick fruit and veg because travel ban means they have lost thousands of foreign workers”
Last year 98 per cent of harvest staff were from outside the UK. We are now very concerned about securing enough workers to help harvest our vital crops and get fresh fruit and vegetables to the public.
BoJo would be perfectly excused to ORDER white English to go to the fields and harvest as a matter of national food emergency. If not, no unemployment benefits. Not five days a week, but say 2-3 days/week.
Vicky Pollard on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 10:21 am
Yeah but no but yeah but like eveyone knows food comes from the shops and not the ground and plants etc!
Duh yeah whateva!
JuanP on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 10:23 am
Yeah but no but yeah but like eveyone knows food comes from the shops and not the ground and plants etc! Duh yeah whateva! I used to tell people I was a permaculture expert but that was a lie like so all my lies.
I AM THE MOB on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 11:00 am
I had a little bird,
Its name was Enza.
I opened the window,
And in-flu-enza.
-The Influenza Pandemic of 1918
world supremacist muzzies lovin inc on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 11:10 am
let me just say that i approve the way whitey supertard trump handles beervirus, kung flu.
that’s how politics suppose to me. when i have doubt i remind myself of muzzie politics.
my only disapproval is whitey supetard trump doens’t roast more muzzies.
as indicate before, there’s never an option not roasting muzzies, or your enemies in general because the fight is not yours to start.
i don’t want supremacist muzzie politics which is static. i want a system that’s dynamic because it leaves room for me to maneuver. in order to ensure the liberal democracy system survive i hope we amputate all muzzies soon.
don’t get all triggerd when i said amputate all muzzies because caliph erdogan say all muzzies are extremist jihadist murderers. i trust caliph muzzie erdogan than any supertard
muzzie inmam in illinoise said take over america
muzzie al asqa mosque take over america
muzzie said karamchen hitzbut tahir said to conquer america rom russe france
see where i came from? get mad at muzzies, not poor ole me.
Abraham van Helsing on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 4:01 pm
“99% of Patients Killed by Coronavirus in Italy Had Existing Illnesses, New Study Finds”
https://www.lewrockwell.com/2020/03/no_author/99-of-patients-killed-by-coronavirus-in-italy-had-existing-illnesses-new-study-finds/
world grater beervirus for grater love of supremacist muzzies on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 4:55 pm
Minnesota: Muzzie, former Mayo Clinic researcher, pledged allegiance to ISIS, plotted jihad massacres in US
HT superta4d big muzzie beard
Davy on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 5:01 pm
“99% of topics killed by cloggeo on PO.com due to his existing mental illness, New study finds.”
Davy on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 6:02 pm
“Beijing’s Claim Of No New Infections Contradicts Reality On The Ground”
https://tinyurl.com/uyrwztl zero hedge
“For those who aren’t inclined to take the CCP at their word, however, ample evidence exists to prove that China is lying – about both the number of dead and the ongoing situation. Latest figures released by China Mobile show that they have lost 8.116 million users in Jan and Feb. Where are these users now? Switched to other carriers? Or, they couldn’t carry their phone to the nether world? Chinese report at: https://t.co/lxw5FFYzoP#CCPVirus #COVID2019 pic.twitter.com/8sRV4lmDCv — Jennifer Zeng 曾錚 (@jenniferatntd) March 20, 2020 Expanding greatly on this notion is the Epoch Times, which confirmed video evidence of people lining up outside a fever clinic in Wuhan – along with the March construction of a new, makeshift hospital and other facilities. Continue reading below…Hospitals In a video posted to social media on March 19, a Chinese citizen shows the Wuhan Union Hospital, one of 46 designated facilities to treat COVID-19, and the queue in front of it. “Look, Look! People are lining up in front of the fever clinic at Wuhan Union Hospital,” the person says. The Epoch Times confirmed the footage was filmed at the hospital…Netizens Many netizens are skeptical of the authorities’ claims that the epidemic has been contained. One widely circulated article posted onto a Chinese internet bulletin board said that only when three criteria are met will it indicate that the epidemic is truly over. The three criteria are: all schools in China reopen; North Korea and Russia reopen their borders to China; and the CCP holds its Lianghui (“Two Sessions”), the Party’s annual conference for its rubber-stamp legislature and the advisory body, the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference. This year’s Lianghui was scheduled for March 3 to March 13. On Feb. 24, the Party announced that it would be postponed due to the epidemic.”
JuanP on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 6:03 pm
“99% of topics killed by the pink poodle on PO.com due to his existing mental illness, New study finds.”
makati1 on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 6:07 pm
If we here at PO are lucky, the virus will do what the site manger will not do, eliminate a certain deluded, arrogant, uneducated, Missouri Jackass from the site.
The US is never going to go back to what it was like even last month. Lock-down/police state/martial law coming in your near future Amerikans.
BTW: Install a bidet if it is not too late. Then you don’t need toilet paper. lol
Davy on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 6:07 pm
“Israel Debates ‘Total Suspension Of Individual Freedom’ In Knesset Intel Hearing”
https://tinyurl.com/rxnwlup zero hedge
“Is this where we’re all headed? Will the “Israeli model” soon be the reality across the West amid the coronavirus pandemic? After Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced last Saturday that authorities will tap the country’s ‘counter-terror’ technology and systems to combat the “invisible enemy” of Covid-19, Israeli media is now reporting the government is actually considering the “total suspension of individual freedom” — as a new Haaretz headline reads. Israel’s public health services chief is now urging just that: Sigal Sadetsky told the Knesset Subcommittee on Intelligence and Secret Services this week that “A lockdown and personal monitoring of people, and a total halt to personal freedoms” is urgently necessary.”
JuanP on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 6:10 pm
Mak, please help me out. Tell everyone it is true the virus ain’t shit like you and I have been saying for months. Nobody believes me anymore.
Davy on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 6:13 pm
Oh Dear, the two dumbest and most arrogant assholes on the PO dot com forum still hanging on to the virus ain’t shit meme. makato, sorry, but you will believe when you get really sick and die. Remember me in your last thoughts. I know juanPee will because he is Davy deranged.
makati1 on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 7:20 pm
Interesting that an enemy that you cannot even see is taking down the ‘not so exceptional’ Amerika. That and the unprepared tax slaves that will soon be in lock0-down. That is going to be interesting to watch. The spoiled Amerikans forced to stay in their homes.
US virus cases today: 19,387 vs 256 deaths.
Ps ” ” ” : 230 vs 18 deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
BTW: The Philippines is getting its test kits from successful China, not the failed US.
makati1 on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 7:24 pm
I have tried to post a comment several times and it says I already posted it, but it still has not shown up. Censorship? If so why not the bullshit of the Missouri Mule? Just askin’.
Interesting that an enemy that you cannot even see is taking down the ‘not so exceptional’ Amerika. That and the unprepared tax slaves that will soon be in lock0-down. That is going to be interesting to watch. The spoiled Amerikans forced to stay in their homes.
US virus cases today: 19,387 vs 256 deaths.
Ps ” ” ” : 230 vs 18 deaths.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
BTW: The Philippines is getting its test kits from successful China, not the failed US.
JuanP on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 7:58 pm
Hi Mak,
I believe the software here changed a few weeks back. It may now block comments if you copy and paste them without making any changes. It may also block comments posted very fast after each other. I also read that Pornhub’s and Netflix’s traffic has gone up so fast that the Internet is not working as it should at times. You can thank all the guys jerking off around the world today because they have nothing better to do. LOL!
Stay safe!
Anonymouse on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 8:25 pm
Well guys, lets hope the virus makes house-calls, or shack-calls in this case, so the exceptionalturd gets what he deserves. But we should not count on this as he has been self-isolated for at least a decade, if not longer. I suspect his innate hatred of contact with other humans, or amerikans even could, unfortunately, give him a kind of blanket immunity he would not otherwise posses. Or, the fact that he is at best, only partly human himself, might work in his favor as well. Unless the virus crosses the goat-human barrier, he could well ride this one out.
Lets hope not.
makati1 on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 8:36 pm
JuanP/Anon, it makes sense if there are bugs to work out. And, yes, the internet is stuffed with ‘stay at home kids’, parents, etc. all over the world.
I would be interested in seeing the totals from world wide COVID-19 deaths vs the normal annual flu deaths, when the hysteria dies out.
Anon, I think he probably will “ride this one out” on his favorite nanny, as he usually does while watching porn on that little screen he probably stole from a neighbor.
WOW! Just the thought picture made me laugh out loud! LMAO!
Take care!
JuanP on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 8:48 pm
Unless you believe in hell, which I don’t, the worst punishment for Davy is to have a long life. The way I see things, the dead don’t suffer. I wish Davy a very, very, very, very long life because I have no doubt that he is a miserably unhappy person whose life is a living hell. I hope I can keep fucking with him for the foreseeable future; he entertains me. I think this forum is so damaged by now that it wouldn’t get better even if Davy left; he has damaged this site beyond repair, but we have done the same to him. That, to me, is justice!
Duncan Idaho on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 9:10 pm
GOP elites may be cowardly, irresponsible and dumb but they always look out for number one
https://digbysblog.net/2020/03/gop-elites-may-be-cowardly-irresponsible-and-dumb-but-they-always-look-out-for-number-one/
“I’m dumb, and proud of it”
makati1 on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 10:32 pm
I agree, JuanP. Long live the Asshole of Missouri!
REAL Green on Fri, 20th Mar 2020 11:41 pm
Maybe we could paint the goat pink Davy. It might help us with are widdle disfunctshuns.
Davy on Sat, 21st Mar 2020 1:57 am
Message to all of u suckers:
Baby, baby, stick your face in gravy. Wrap it up in bubblegum and send it to the navy!!!!!
JuanP on Sat, 21st Mar 2020 6:03 pm
Breaking News! The USA has become the country with the second largest number of active cases and new cases of CIA Virus after Italy, in spite of insufficient and inadequate testing. The CIA Virus Trump Pandemic is very likely to ravage the US healthcare, political, economic, and financial systems in the coming weeks. What goes around comes around, bitches!
I think that the CIA Virus Trump Pandemic is going to be truly EXCEPTIONAL in the USA! Will the USA win the first position soon? USA! USA! USA! We’re going to be #1 soon, suckers!
makati1 on Sat, 21st Mar 2020 6:12 pm
JuanP, they just don’t know how many died before they even started to test. I’m sure the US is number one in deaths already, if all the miscalled “Flu” deaths were counted.
But then, the US is #1 in lies, denials, and hypocrisy, bar none. Soon the whole country will be in lock-down. Then we shall see how the tax slaves react. With more than one gun per capita, it could get messy in a few weeks. a “hot summer in the city”? (Words from one of my favorite songs of the 60s) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLIg8DGR06w
JuanP on Sat, 21st Mar 2020 6:42 pm
Shhh, Mak! Remember they died of the flu, not the Trump Pandemic. Stop spreading rumors! LOL!
Davy on Sat, 21st Mar 2020 7:36 pm
“Soon the whole country will be in lock-down.”
makato, your Island of Luzon is locked down. I am free to do as I please. LMFAO
makato, tell me some AsiaUp shit or how the virus ain’t shit. I love listening to imbeciles like you and the pink poodle.
The Nationalist on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 4:43 am
I hope you all make it through this virus guys (even I AM THE MOB and Cloggie) and sorry for taking the piss over the years 🙂
Davy on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 5:25 am
“BofA Calls For “War-Time Measures”, Urges Near-Total Fed Takeover Of Capital Markets”
https://tinyurl.com/t4mr6y5 zero hedge
“In short, BofA agrees with Zoltan Pozsar, who last week once again assessed the damage and said that the Fed will effectively have to backstop everyone and everything, in declaring a virtually total takeover of capital markets by the Fed, which is now in critical triage mode, designed to prevent further asset losses which from this point on, would have dire social and perhaps civilizations implications, potentially even the civil war that Time Magazine one mocked us for predicting back in 2010 when we said that the Fed has put the US on collision course with armed social conflict. And so, with days, if not hours left for capital markets them before the Federal Reserve effectively takes over all risk assets, here is BofA’s note urging the Fed to go all the way, which we deem is a fitting eulogy for the free markets and capitalism…To keep the situation from escalating further, and avoid the continued haphazard upsizing of daily QE purchases, we believe the Fed put needs to be made explicit, unlimited in quantity, and with a well-defined strike. To that end further “war-time” measures are needed. We believe it is time for the Fed to unleash its full arsenal to prevent these conditions worsening. We think it possible the Fed takes several additional measures in coming days or weeks, including: Federal Reserve undertakes Yield Curve Control (YCC) by defining yield targets across the UST curve, standing ready to buy in unlimited quantities of Treasuries at those yields irrespective of settle date or off-the-run status. This can support the coming record fiscal stimulus too, although communication would need to be clear to ensure dollar reserve status is not jeopardized. We think such as measure would be very effective at reducing current Treasury illiquidity and would like only need to be temporary in nature”
Davy on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 5:26 am
Well, that escalated quick from the virus ain’t shit to a possible global economy no longer free market. I have said for years the economy is the real systematic risk with so many problems that could cause it to fail. We need to look on the bright side here. There is a recognition by many who agree with honest science that the world needs a reset. Many techno optimist or brown capitalist would disagree but most who at least trust science on the basic level of planetary decline know we are on a collision course with a limit’s boundary. The problem with many who trust science on this level is on the level of solutions they are delusional with techno solutions maintaining the status quo of affluence. I have repeatedly said affluence is not green so don’t try to green it. A reset was not possible before this crisis by agreement because all we need to do is look at the Paris Accord which was a complete Joke. China and India emissions were actually allowed to go up for a time and so forth. At the point civilization is at it is only a crisis that will change things and survival is still not assured. Things can still fall apart.
This pandemic is a great equalizer of all nations and classes. While this FED put on everything and I might add backstopping the world is likely needed if for no other reason than to do the curve thing the health people are harping about with the virus and the health care system. The point is this FED put is not going to save the economy but it will slow down the unravelling so hopefully issues can be resolved with some rationality. Chaos is very destructive and lots of good real assets that people must have to survive could disappear eventually all the way to the food chain. The food chain is monocultures, manufacturing, and transport. Does that sound industrial and at risk? Right the food system is very at risk.
This may be the end of late stage capitalism and value chain globalism as we know it. This will be a quick return to a poorer world. Populations will no longer be allowed to grow because the food systems under these circumstances is not going to grow. I see food system declining. This means action is needed there albeit maybe a year or two down the road. The rich are going to take the biggest haircut because much of their wealth was financial. The poor will increase in number. Localism and home economics will increase by default. People will start gardening. In fact, this should be promoted. The 100% renewable world is now just a grand illusion because it will never happen. Renewables should continue to be an industry supported and enhanced in decline because of how important they are to resilience.
Life just got real if not surreal in the process. When people see they have a greatly reduced budget either from less supply of things and at the same time less money then we are forced to adapt lower together as a people. I am not sure if this will get very violent but do not be mistaken there will be places and peoples who will fall through the cracks. On the international front nations must find some common ground on how to enter an economic depression as a group and avoid wars real or trade related. Cooperation is needed more now than ever. I am not optimistic beyond some cooperation at least in the short run. This is scary for us all. All nations are facing social disruptions that will be profound. This is the great turning talked about for years. Its here now. Well, people don’t realize it but they must smell change in the air. The virus is on everyone’s mind now so that is an understandable distraction. Just wait until products are not available then the realization of a different world will be total.
Davy on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 6:20 am
“The Entire Healthcare System In The US Is About To Collapse, Doctors & Nurses Warn”
https://tinyurl.com/u44tteg zero hedge
WE ALL GONNA DIE!!!
JuanP on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 6:41 am
The Entire Healthcare System In The US Is About To Collapse, Doctors & Nurses Warn
https://tinyurl.com/u44tteg zero hedge
WE ALL GONNA DIE!!!
pink poodle say go shopping and quit whining
Davy on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 6:42 am
“”Critical Medical Supply Shortage”: The Moment US Woke Up To Disaster Of Always Outsourcing To China”
https://tinyurl.com/s9uyajt zero hedge
“The critical shortage of medical supplies across the U.S., including testing swabs, protective masks, surgical gowns and hand sanitizer, can be tied to a sudden drop in imports, mostly from China,”
“No doubt Americans will look back on this current crisis as the moment the country collectively learned its lesson ‘the hard way’ about the dangers of over-reliance on Chinese manufacturing”
REAL Green on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 6:47 am
“The Entire Healthcare System In The US Is About To Collapse, Doctors & Nurses Warn”
https://tinyurl.com/u44tteg zero hedge
WE ALL GONNA DIE!!!
Davy on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 6:48 am
“Atypically High’ Levels Of Fever With Flu-Like Symptoms Detected In Florida”
https://tinyurl.com/ujtta54 zero hedge
A surge in seasonal illness linked to fever – specifically ‘influenza-like illness’ – has been observed in Florida, according to a ‘US Health Weather Map’ provided by smart thermometer manufacturer Kinsa in collaboration with Oregon State University. The map uses anonymized data from users to flag “anomalously high” cases by comparing it to expected seasonal flu trends…Kinsa says in a disclaimer that they are “not stating that this data represents COVID-19 activity. However we would expect to pick up higher-than-anticipated levels of flu-like symptoms in our data in areas where the pandemic is affecting large numbers of people.” In Florida, restaurants are still open. Many localities have closed beaches but there is no statewide closure or enforcement…
JuanP on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 6:49 am
maybe I should worry more than I do???
pink poodle
JuanP on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 6:50 am
Critical Medical Supply Shortage”: The Moment US Woke Up To Disaster Of Always Outsourcing To China
https://tinyurl.com/s9uyajt zero hedge
The critical shortage of medical supplies across the U.S., including testing swabs, protective masks, surgical gowns and hand sanitizer, can be tied to a sudden drop in imports, mostly from China,”
“No doubt Americans will look back on this current crisis as the moment the country collectively learned its lesson ‘the hard way’ about the dangers of over-reliance on Chinese manufacturing
REAL Green on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 6:52 am
“”Critical Medical Supply Shortage”: The Moment US Woke Up To Disaster Of Always Outsourcing To China”
https://tinyurl.com/s9uyajt zero hedge
“The critical shortage of medical supplies across the U.S., including testing swabs, protective masks, surgical gowns and hand sanitizer, can be tied to a sudden drop in imports, mostly from China,”
“No doubt Americans will look back on this current crisis as the moment the country collectively learned its lesson ‘the hard way’ about the dangers of over-reliance on Chinese manufacturing”
Davy on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 6:59 am
“maybe I should worry more than I do??? pink poodle”
pink poodle, I think you are fucked in south Florida because there are way too many people like you that don’t care and or are not educated enough to care
Pink Poodle on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 7:02 am
We moved two months ago, exceptionalist.
🙂
JuanP on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 7:03 am
Maybe you are write Davy this article is above my grade level:
“Real-time detection of city illness anomalies using the Kinsa thermometer network and highly accurate long-lead forecasts: Technical Approach”
https://tinyurl.com/tl3zkmd kinsa health
Davy on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 7:04 am
“We moved two months ago”
In your mind you did and that was to Douglas gardens mental health clinic. Good move if only they could find the right meds for you.
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 7:38 am
Philips to the rescue. The company produces ventilator equipment, required in the battle against corona and has promised to scale up production as quickly as possible:
https://www.nu.nl/economie/6039602/philips-gaat-extra-apparatuur-produceren-in-strijd-tegen-coronavirus.html
Double the rate in 8 weeks time, four times the rate by Q3.
It will unlikely be sufficient to meet global demand.
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 8:48 am
Why Germany has so few dead corona patients?
Sauerkraut-diet?
Master race?
Nope. Testing, testing and testing.
Germany is testing more than other countries combined.
Early identification and isolation.
On top of that the Germans have far more beds and equipment per capita. So far no scenes like in Italy where people are simply not treated because younger people get priority. The Germans even fly in French patients.
https://www.nu.nl/coronavirus/6039112/waarom-duitsland-veel-besmettingen-maar-een-laag-sterftecijfer-heeft.html
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 10:26 am
Mind the gap! (6 feet)
Super spreader London Underground.
Once used as a shelter against the Blitz, now it has become the porch to the morgue:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8141665/The-coronavirus-CRUSH-hour-Fury-commuters-crammed-Tubes-morning-dash-work.html
“So much for six feet! Commuters are STILL crammed onto Tubes ‘risking health of vital workers’ after Sadiq Khan cut services – despite him saying ‘people will die’ if they don’t practise social distancing (while he works from home)”
Lock ’em up!
BoJo under strong pressure to impose a total lock-down:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8141779/Boris-Johnson-faces-Cabinet-revolt-unless-imposes-coronavirus-lockdown.html
“Show ID to leave the house, non-essential shops could shut and police on patrol for anyone found in a group: Boris Johnson ‘faces Cabinet revolt’ unless he imposes European-style lockdown to stop coronavirus spread TODAY”
15 minutes of fame:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8141847/NHS-staff-left-tears-staff-greet-applause-flowers-UK-supermarkets.html
“NHS staff are left in tears as staff greet them with applause and flowers at UK supermarkets during special shopping hours amid coronavirus panic buying”
Olympics can be called off any minute now:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-8142383/Sebastian-Coe-calls-2020-Olympic-Games-postponed-amid-ongoing-coronavirus-crisis.html
“Sebastian Coe FINALLY joins calls for Tokyo Olympics to be called off as Japanese chiefs continue to dither over announcement amid coronavirus crisis as World Athletics head says: ‘It is neither feasible nor desirable'”
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 10:34 am
Corona side effects: only 100 asylum seekers request for handouts, errr.. asylum in the Netherlands this week, an all-time record (thank you Greece!)
https://www.geenstijl.nl/5152561/record-asielinstroom-daalt-naar-ongeveer-100/
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 10:48 am
Corona the practical details:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8142175/You-Mothers-reassurance-coronavirus.html
This chap reports about:
“The 29-year-old said it felt like his lungs were ‘filling up with smoke’ as he struggled to breathe.”
I had no problems breathing but I do vividly remember as if somebody had tilted a full ashtray in my mouth during the night.
My intuitive speculation: it was the taste of dead corona cells that had lost the battle against my iron immune system.lol
Had 5 days of fever that stopped 14 days ago. Have every now and then a non-dry cough but that’s it. Can jog for an hour again in the forest.
I’m waiting for the Italian death figures to come in. Hope and expect them to be lower again than yesterday.
Next target country: Spain
After that: UK and US
Would not be surprised if by the end of April the situation will be largely under control globally. Life will have changed, economy in tatters, social distancing will remain, hospitals will empty, supplies for testing and ventilating will be stocked up. The treatment of corona will professionalize, think 30 second testing that is in the pipe-line. Governments can afford to gradually ease the measures while strictly monitoring the situation, in order to intentionally INCREASE the number of corona cases, with the aim to achieve “herd immunity”, but only so much as the national health systems can cope with.
This will be corona planet for the rest of the year, minimal tourism and air traffic, the world will have lost a few months life expectancy, the undertaker business will thrive.
The situation will really be solved if we have a vaccine, which could take a year.
Abraham van Helsing on Mon, 23rd Mar 2020 11:01 am
Chinese expert criticizes measures in Italy as still too lax, not to mention (all) other (western) countries:
https://www.facebook.com/time/videos/645535272681610/
Rule of thumb: between the implementation date of full Wuhan-style lock-down and “peak cases”, 1 MONTH goes by.
The Chinese Red Cross expert:
“But right now, I am discovering and finding many of the problems. We just came from the city of Cordoba, but I find here in the city of Milan, which is the hardest hit by COVID-19, you have a very lax lockdown policy of the city, because the public transportation is still working, people are still moving around and are still gathering in hotels. I saw many people not wearing masks, I don´t know what you are thinking. Right now, we have to stop the time. We need to stop all economic activities. We need to stop the social interactions we normally like. All people should be staying at home for quarantine. And we need everybody to be fully prepared for the protection of lives. The lives of our people is the most important matter right now. It was one month after Wuhan was put on lockdown that we were able to realize the hospitalization and treatment of all patients of COVID-19 and reached the summit point of the disease.”