Peak Oil is You
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Page added on April 27, 2012
GDP, oil consumption and prices
Commenter Nick G noted that Wednesday’s post neglected the role of GDP which is, of course, important to oil consumption in addition to oil prices. Accordingly I have added a top panel showing real US GDP (in trillions of chained $2005). A you might expect in the recent era of high oil prices, oil consumption and GDP are diverging as the US economy becomes more oil efficient. Still, you can see that part of the 2008 and early 2009 drop in oil consumption was due to the great recession, in addition to the ongoing process of becoming more efficient.
I would guess that the lower pace of economic growth evident in 2011 and 2012, versus late 2009 and 2010, is due to the drag exerted by high ongoing oil prices.
6 Comments on "GDP, oil consumption and prices"
Kenz300 on Fri, 27th Apr 2012 9:40 pm
The world economy was built on cheap oil. That is coming to an end. In the past when the economy slowed oil prices dropped giving a boost to the economy. With rising demand from China and India there is no drop in demand to cause a price drop in oil. It now will take a global recession or depression to make a huge impact in the price of oil.
Kenz300 on Fri, 27th Apr 2012 9:41 pm
In the past when the economy slowed oil prices dropped giving a boost to the economy. With rising demand from China and India there is no drop in demand to cause a price drop in oil. It now will take a global recession or depression to make a huge impact in the price of oil.
Rick on Sat, 28th Apr 2012 12:22 am
Cheap oil is what drives an economy. Cheap oil is now gone, China and India came to the party too late. Soon, they will be in our boat.
BillT on Sat, 28th Apr 2012 2:06 pm
The party is over for the West. The East may still have a few more decades to go because they have oil that does not have to cross oceans. Russia, South China Sea, etc. That will give them time to become number one and to watch the Us Empire crumble. Who will be worse off, Western countries who had it all and wasted it, or those who never had much (3rd world) and nothing changes?
Arthur on Sat, 28th Apr 2012 3:23 pm
Oil for China and Japan crosses oceans as well. There will be no ‘Asian century’, it will be decline all over the planet. I think the US is relatively well positioned (territory, climate, resources, population density) compared to other blocks. Sure, they are going to crash economically, like everybody else, but less so. France is not too bad either. Low population density, good climate, green, lots of agriculture and few large towns.
BillT on Sun, 29th Apr 2012 2:51 am
Arthur, I disagree from a position in Asia.
The Us Empire is done. History It’s is likely to break into several different countries, just like Iraq’s future, or Europe’s, when the shit hits the fan.
Americans are spoiled children. They are currently on the verge of waking up to the way they are being destroyed by their own leadership. The several hundred million weapons they own will soon come out and the real riots will begin. If you think China has problems, you ain’t seen nothing yet.
China and the whole continent is moving away from the West. All you get from corporate news in the Us is the spin from our government. Bullshit in huge quantities. The truth is much different and can only be gotten from reading many sources outside the Us.
Believe what you want, but this is Asia’s century.