Actuary Gail Tverberg explains the tight correlation between the rates of GDP growth and growth in energy supply. For decades, energy has been becoming more costly to obtain, and instead of accepting lower GDP growth, we have been using debt to fund further energy exploration and extraction.

That strategy has diminishing returns, Tverberg warns. And we are close to the moment of reckoning:

89 Comments on "Gail Tverberg: Something Has Got To Break"

Hello on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 3:09 pm 



>>> I’m afraid what it means is that at some point there’s got to be a discontinuity. Something has got to break.

Yes. We know that. What we don’t know is when.

onlooker on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 3:38 pm 



Very good technical explanation. Yes Debt is drowning the average person and that is what Gail makes referent too. As some point something does have to give particularly in the US where 70% of GDP is ties to consumer spending.

shortonoil on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 4:49 pm 



Petroleum no longer supplies enough energy to the economy to provide for growth. That is probably not yet the case for coal, or NG; the other fossil fuels. To compensate the economy is cannibalizing energy from other sources, and its infrastructure to produce petroleum. This phenomena is stressing the monetary system that was created with the assumption of infinite growth. Central Banks have responded with QE, and ZIRP in an attempt to save their ever increasingly stressed system. At some point the present century old debt based system will have to be abandoned. The immense complexity that has been built into the present system assures that a transition to a new system will not take place seamlessly. There will be immense disruption as a result.

If the health of the Petroleum Production System is used as a proxy, a rough estimation, of when that transition will occur can be made. The PPS’s final expiration date is in the area of 2030. Of course, the monetary system is a construct, and is not directly controlled by the laws of physics. It final demise is dictated by them, but human activities are capable of concluding it anytime before physics terminates it. Poor judgement made in desperation by policy makers is likely to be what will bring about its final demise.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

yoananda on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 5:09 pm 



@Hello
“Yes. We know that. What we don’t know is when.”

yes, nobody knows “when”, but we know something : there is NO TIME TO LOOSE.
So the “when” does not matter since, whenever it is it does not change anything : we have to deal with it right now.

Davy on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 5:59 pm 



True Yo, “when” is really not accurate with a process. “When” works well for events. When “when” is looked at as a process “when” is yesterday. “When” is “is” and has happened. The “is” is it is too late. We messed up and our window of productive risk management is closing quickly. So yesterday is “when” and “is” is. The point of that prattle is words fail to grasp a nonlinear reality.

Davy on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 6:09 pm 



Did something break?

http://statisticalideas.blogspot.com/2016/01/day-1-monumental-destruction.html?m=1

pennsyguy on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 9:04 pm 



And just to add some needed spice to the current stew, Iraq and our favorite kingdom are taking things up a notch or three. Then there are the spoiled good old white guys laying a siege in the U.S.
It just keeps getting better, and it’s only January 4th.

Davy on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 9:30 pm 



More Chinese bad news that surely will spell the end of any hope of a global system’s recovery and avoidance of a global recession. So goes China so goes the world. The second largest economy will lead us all into a dangerous slowdown. Got Brics?

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-04/its-coming-head-2016-why-bank-america-thinks-probability-chinese-crisis-100

makati1 on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 9:44 pm 



Gonna be a fun year in the Fascist States of America. The plague of insanity is spreading from sea to shining sea, across waving fields of GMO crops, washed down by fluoridated, radiated, chlorinated, drug filled water … (where they still have some).

DEBT is only increasing in ALL areas as desperation sets in to keep BAU going for a little while longer. The higher you climb the greater the fall. And America is at nose bleed heights of everything but those that count.

Obesity, drug use(both legal & illegal), debt, real unemployment, gun ownership, war mongering, etc. All areas where the FSA is number one. Buckle up! LMAO

GregT on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 10:18 pm 



Global stock markets dive on China worries

“A survey indicating China’s manufacturing sector contracted again last month was blamed for the falls.”

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35219745

I wonder what could possibly be causing China’s manufacturing sector to continue to contract?

makati1 on Mon, 4th Jan 2016 10:47 pm 



GregT, possibly an excess/glut of supply in a contracting world economy? When you have fewer customers and your orders/manufacturing remain the same, your shelves/warehouses overflow and selling at a discount/loss is necessary. Standard business practice.

When it is a country that is overstocked … it is called a race to the bottom as countries take turns devaluing their money to keep their exports going. At least China has the ability to manufacture what it needs. Many Western countries shipped their manufacturing capability to Asia. Gonna regret that soon, I think.

theedrich on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 1:52 am 



Global society is now based on lies as never before.  Most “official” mouthpieces lie:  the N-word’s regime;  virtually all politicians;  professors of political “science,” of English and other humanities;  the Federal Reserve;  CEOs of national and international banks and of oil companies;  military spokesmen;  the promotors of unrestricted immigration;  and, in general, almost all rulers of the Third World.  One way of lying (or “half-truthing”) is simply not to include the physical and social “externalities” involved in commercial and financial operations when discussing them.  Another way is to dupe people by equivocation (e.g., recasting “freedom” as freebies) or by division (attributing the properties of a collection of elements to the properties of the individual elements themselves, e.g., “The White race made the modern world, and therefore each White man today has the responsibility of accepting the guilt for all of its problems”);  the fantasy that “all men are created equal”;  the countless “growth” Ponzi schemes — many fractally sprouting other Ponzi schemes — instituted by so many economies;  religious myths for which believes pay dearly, or even die;  euphemisms of all sorts;  the making of promises which are known to be unfulfillable.

In short, misinformation is the fuel which keeps Wylie E. Coyote running on thin air far beyond the edge of the cliff.

theedrich on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 1:54 am 



believeRs

numbersman on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 4:30 am 



Somethings got to give? Has it not done so already? I submit that ” this sucker went down” in 2008 and now we have a new “sucker” on hand. I mean really, fellow doomers: We have been calling for imminent demise of BAU for as long as I can remember, yet it never really seems to happen (anyone remember Howard J. Ruff in the late 70s?)

I see so many arguments for the end of BAU, but here is what seems obvious to me: We are arguing around a set of constructs and beliefs that “went down” in 2008. Specifically, that money supply is limited, that expenses must ultimately balance with revenues; That actual physical growth is required to keep our economic system functioning.

I no longer see it this way, and I don’t have a feel for the “new” system like I did the old one. But I can pretty much assure the simple minded worriers out there that the Ivy League schemers that are structuring this new system are no dummies. They know the consequences of collapse and economic failure, and they know that BAU ceased working some time ago if you expect all accounts to balance. So they have new schemes (systems) being deployed and slowly becoming accepted until one day they just might seem normal. This appears to be the notion of feeding QE money fuel to the engine on an as needed basis, and simply not worrying that revenues don’t match receipts.
I submit that running out of oil is no longer the proper doomer focus, and that if you want to worry, worry that QE will stop working. But before you age yourself prematurely, also know that the architects of these schemes are no dummies; They are not letting the “ship go down” as long as people will accept their printed money. And they are looking at every angle that might weaken this proposition and shoring it up two and three mechanisms deep.

It’s pretty easy for them, actually, so long as we are all addicted to the crack-like thing called money.

numbersman on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 5:07 am 



Never forget there is an infinite supply of fiat money. So deflation will not sink the ship. Disgruntlement among the Proletariot could certainly risk an insurrection (hello Republican Party!) but that is managed fairly effectively with IV drips from the government to the various consciences, be they tax cuts, pensions, or good old fashioned hand outs. And this too is funded by an infinite supply of fiat money. So what might trigger the house to fall? Perhaps rot from within. Indifference, lost ambition, lives pursuing fleeting pleasure. And one day, when a powerful risk manifests, we may find there are insufficient motivated and qualified people to fight the risk. This might be a cultural virus like radical Islam; or a natural disaster like a comet, volcano, or devastating weather; or an aggressive nation-state; or just a course of events that feels good but leaves us hollowed out, the classic end to addiction.

makati1 on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 6:10 am 



numbers, Rome set the example for the Us. When Rome ran out of countries to plunder, they ran out of bread and circus’ to appease the serfs and money to pay the soldiers. By then, the government had become so corrupt that it was every elite for himself. Sound familiar? Except Rome didn’t have nukes.

bug on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 6:50 am 



Yes, very true Mak, but the problem is that the Romans had clubs and spears, while our citizenry has Glocks, and Ar-15’s and hunting rifles. Ugh

ghung on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 7:54 am 



With the Baltic dry index at 5 year lows, down 37.19% YOY, it’s clear things are slowing. Not sure if/when there will be a ‘breaking point’, but, despite trillions being pumped into global economies and lower fuel prices, consumers aren’t consuming at levels indicative of rising demand and growth.

Limits kicking in……

Davy on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 8:03 am 



None of us can know for sure what the elites both good and bad know in aggregate. There are many individuals and groups with serious resources. Their ability of raw research is amazing. There are people very smart both in general and specialized at their disposal. We can be sure they have a file with most of the things we cover here and many we have no clue about.

We should remember these folks at the top are deceived by their own cleverness and abilities. The clever so often deceive themselves by being sure about something that may or may not be true. They can only have a partial and incomplete grasp of the truth because that is reality. This partial grasp of reality allows flaws that render their equations incomplete. There are limits and diminishing returns to knowledge. You end up in a vicious circle of control controlling control.

The deception I see with these highest levels of leadership is their misguided feeling of exceptionalism through their knowledge and technology. I see those who have the best grasp of reality are those most divorced from this society of exceptionalism. Those who are connected to nature as man should be. Those who are the mystics and those who live existentially simple are the most connected to nature’s “force”.

Power corrupts because it allows extreme dualism of existential control. Power allows control and we know control is more valuable than money and much harder attain. Ask Putin what is more important power or money because he has both. Power is much harder to hold on to then money. Power is the ultimate prize and paradoxically the most enslaving. Human power is the ultimate trap. Ask anyone who has attained power how insecure and alone they are with that power, control and so often wealth. In a macro view look at what power has done to destroy the fundamentals of the United States.

The real deception with those at the top is their denial of death of the status quo and the loss of their power. They may acknowledge there could be a collapse but this collapse will be on their terms and within their control in regards to their refuge. They see technology, knowledge, and human control as the answer instead of submitting and adapting to nature in a collapsing earth ecosystem.

Submitting to nature’s judgement and wrath is the best way to confront the challenges of collapse. If you fight nature’s current she will drown you in your self-centered swim for survival but if you swim with her current nature will support you. This does not guarantee survival it just is the way of survival.

The elites want to work in their own interest and often against nature. To be with nature is to give up hope of your individual survival on your terms. You adapt to natures reality and live within that reality. Modern life is in complete denial of this reality and it will be our civilization’s end game.

Davy on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 8:24 am 



I agree the economic dangers trump oil now in the short term but oil and the economy are so conjoined as to be indistinguishable. It appears many subsystems that make up the global system are running up against limits and diminishing returns causing a breach of localized “laws of the minimum”. These localized limits will eventually cause the global system to breach a minimum operating level that allows globalism to function. The time frame is the missing variable. Peak oil dynamics points to an oil end date down the road. Other than POD we have climate and the geopolitical but these are too variable for an immediate end date. The global economy offers the best immediate danger to focus on.

What will shake out will be ugly because of population overshoot and consumption overshoot of many population centers. Most all large cities are at risk of a crisis of life-support. Our global oil supply and demand relationship has been damaged. Our economic structures have been damaged by excessive debt. These appear to be combining along with other issues of debt currently as an end game of the status quo but again in a process with an unknown time frame.

This can’t end well but it is a process beyond control and predictions. We just don’t know how converging failures will combine to damage globalism. What is a minimum operating level? Much depends on human confidence and its resulting global liquidity. How far can a crisis go before globalism stops is anyone’s guess. We know many collapse variables and issues we just don’t know the equation of how they will interact.

makati1 on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 8:27 am 



bug, true, the Romans had swords, spears and a well trained army. In those days, it was just as deadly as the opposition were similarly armed, but usually not as organized. Any fighting had to be up close and personal.

Today a ‘pilot’ can sit in an air conditioned room in Florida, sipping coffee and kill a wedding party in the ME, then go home to his family at 5 o’clock. Nothing personal, just good business. Make them fight hand to hand and most wars would never happen.

Davy on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 8:35 am 



We often hear talk about money and its abstractness. We talk about how it has been corrupted. We feel we are losing trust in fiat money. We want to find an alternative. The inconvenient truth is there are no alternatives for money and the global system. Fiat money is the only solution to a system that is as far along as our global system is in complexity and connectedness.

We probably can change some aspects of global fiat money but increasingly very little. As the global system descends into crisis and decay any major disruptions will destroy what we have. For those who hate the dollar there is no alternative choices ahead that will not destabilize the global system even more.

We are in an end game of descent with an unknown time frame. Our existing structures will struggle to survive and there will be few opportunity and resources to adapt and innovate. We are in survival mode not a renaissance. Decay and dysfunction means all we can do is react to one crisis of control after another. We are stuck with what we have until it is no more. We are the problem not money.

Davy on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 8:41 am 



“Stocks Resume Rout After Massive Chinese Intervention Fails To Lift Shanghai, Calm Traders”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-05/stocks-resume-rout-after-massive-chinese-intervention-fails-lift-shanghai-calm-trade

“It’s a really messy start to the year — everyone is really on edge,” said William Hobbs, head of investment strategy at Barclays Plc’s wealth-management unit in London. “Not much is expected of the world in terms of growth, risk appetite is biased to the downside and weak data from China to the U.S. hasn’t helped at all. Plenty of people out there believe that the next global recession is imminent.”

orbit7er on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 8:46 am 



The US CAN do something very quickly to reduce oil consumption and greenhouse emissions frying the planet. And that is to ramp up Green Transit – actually RUN existing train and bus public transit which was decimated after the 2008 crash. Between 1942-45 the US elite decided to redirect the huge resources wasted on the newly burgeoning Auto Addiction to the war effort and public transit. Auto production was slashed to only hundreds of private cars, propaganda was broadcast to use public transit rather then driving to help the War effort. In just 3 years intercity rail and bus ridership increased by 4 times. Local public transit also increased by 4 times. Two Federal policies could jumpstart this – 1)increase the federal gas tax 2)redirect the gas tax revenue increase to restore the Federal subsidy to public transit which existed for decades until Reagan. Every Rail rider pretty much takes 1 car off the roads…

shortonoil on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 9:03 am 



“Never forget there is an infinite supply of fiat money.”

There is no limit to fiat currency; money is another matter. The petroleum industry powers 38% of the world’s economy; at $37/ barrel it can no longer replace the reserves it is extracting, it can not replace the machinery it is wearing out; some of it can not even cover the cost of lifting a barrel of oil and its water content 4000 feet into the air. When the petroleum industry shuts down the smart money will be left with a string of ones, and zeros in a computer memory, and no economy in which to use them. The idea that the economy will continue to work as long as people have faith in the currency is wrong. People will lose faith in the currency after the economy has stopped working. With one producer after another beginning to shut their doors, that will not be long into the future. The smart money has no intention of powering the economy by creating fiat currency. Their intention is to move what wealth that remains from somebody’s pocket into theirs.

Davy on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 9:11 am 



“if you build it they will come” does not work with transport. Until you change attitudes and lifestyles any of these efforts are fringe and niche efforts that will never make a difference. You are just preaching more of the same failures of previous policy. I am all for green solutions but they are doomed in our status quo world of individualism and choice. Change that cultural narrative and you have a chance. Changing that core narrative of capitalism and democratic choice would require an end of the status quo.

The catch 22 is you change those central systematic structures and the results are a failed system. I am all for your transportation ideas but they must be put in perspective and be reality tested. Instead of a silver bullet they need to be ideas of opportunity. If they can be done do them and there are many sweet spots for this but nothing system wide in scope. They will never solve or make a dent in climate change. We no longer have the time nor the resources in any case.

Hello on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 9:47 am 



>>> there’s got to be a discontinuity

Davy:
Gail says discontinuity. That implies that it will be an ‘event’. Therefore the question of ‘when’ is very valid as opposed to look at it as a process.

yonanda: there is NO TIME TO LOOSE

How do you know that?
There have been voices of “no time to loose” since the dawn of time.
Since 2008 doomers on this board claim year after year that next year is “the year”. Almost 10 years passed without “the year”.

ghung on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 9:59 am 



Hello said; “Gail says discontinuity. That implies that it will be an ‘event’. Therefore the question of ‘when’ is very valid as opposed to look at it as a process.”

Bullshit. Massive complex systems have a lot of inertia. Failures take time, especially when TPTB keep shoring things up with massively increasing debt. Taking the long view, the metrics indicate a long slow train wreck of the global industrial paradigm with no plan B. Ten years is nothing in the scheme of things. Just because you can’t see your “moment of truth” doesn’t mean things aren’t in decline. Maybe you can make us a list of things that aren’t.

Hello on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 10:13 am 



ghung: so you’re saying Gail is wrong? The article is BS?

That is interesting, I always thought Gail is one of doomer deities.

GregT on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 10:28 am 



“Change that cultural narrative and you have a chance.”

Changing that narrative will not come from the top down, it will only come from the bottom up. If the narrative cannot be changed from the bottom up, the ultimate result will be chaos and collapse.

ghung on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 10:32 am 



Hello asks; “ghung: so you’re saying Gail is wrong? The article is BS?”

Not at all. I’m saying that your interpretations are typically binary.

Davy on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 10:42 am 



You can pick apart doom in many ways but you can’t dismiss it. An event is possible and we see every evidence of a process of destructive change that is taking place. A process is a multitude of events. A catastrophic event is always possible. In the best of times there were asteroids. More recently we had real dangers of global NUK war. These are catastrophic “events” as examples.

Complaining about 10 years of failed predictions is a lame argument we hear time and time again. Risk management is a better word and risk management calls for identification of risks. A time frame of 10 years is large for individual humans but little for human history and nothing for natural history.

Considering the speed of our converging predicaments and the enormity of the consequences calling your statement cavalier would be an understatement. This time period now has to be ranked near the top of the most profound periods in human and natural history. This is a paradigm shift at all levels. Boil in your pot of water if you like. It is easier that way.

shortonoil on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 11:00 am 



“Gail says discontinuity. That implies that it will be an ‘event’. Therefore the question of ‘when’ is very valid as opposed to look at it as a process.”

Discontinuity is the term that we applied quit awhile ago to describe the behavior of the price curve at the 2012 energy half way point. In mathematics a discontinuity refers to gap, or a break in a function:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

It is not an event that will happen; it is an event that has already happened. The price curve has turned permanently downward, and will continue until producers can no longer cover their lifting costs. When the price has fallen to a level were the average producer can no longer generate a positive cash flow on their production the oil age will have ended. The Etp Model indicates that will occur sometime over the next 14 years.

The idea that this discontinuity occurred as the result of debt formation is completely erroneous. Debt is the effect of the depletion process, not the cause. If it was the cause the depletion process could be reversed by paying off the debt. That would imply that economics can supersede physics. Even though economists like to believe that is true, it is a belief that is only based in the currently accepted mythology.

We would like to emphasize that the current situation has resulted from the entropic decay of the Petroleum Production System. The consequences of that will be a continually decaying economy which is dependent on oil’s ability to power it. An ECON 101 evaluation of the situation is likely to result in a conclusion that will only reduce our ability to mitigate its very negative effects.

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

Davy on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 11:02 am 



Wow, what an admission. Could it be a precursor for a recognition we are adrift and at the mercy of an unknown fate?

“We Frontloaded A Tremendous Market Rally” Former Fed President Admits, Warns “No Ammo Left”

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-05/we-frontloaded-tremendous-market-rally-former-fed-president-admits-warns-no-ammo-lef

“In perhaps the most shocking of mea culpas seen in modern financial history, former Dallas Fed head Richard Fisher unleashed some seriously uncomfortable truthiness during a 5-minute confessional interview on CNBC. While talking heads attempt to blame China for recent US market volatility, Fisher explains “It is not China,” it is The Fed that is at fault: “What The Fed did, and I was part of it, was front-loaded an enormous rally market rally in order to create a wealth effect… and an uncomfortable digestive period is likely now.” Simply put he concludes, there can’t be much more accomodation, “The Fed is a giant weapon that has no ammunition left.”

Hello on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 11:13 am 



>>> A time frame of 10 years is large for individual humans but little for human history and nothing for natural history

That is a very true statement Davy.
But it begs the question of how long down the road I should care.
My life? My kids life? My grandkids? Or should I care about people living 1000 years from now?
I don’t know. It’s a philosophical question with no right or wrong answer.

How long down the road do you care?

Hello on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 11:15 am 



shortonoil: “Discontinuity is the term that we applied….”

Not sure what you’re blabbering about, as usual. Not even sure if you know yourself what your blabbering about.

A discontinuity is clearly defined:
d/dt = inf.

And as such it’s an ‘event’ which equals something in time of infinitely short duration.

marmico on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 11:51 am 



Tverberg says: as the cost of energy has gone up, especially since about the mid 70’s, the amount of debt required to find GDP growth has gone way, way up

The cost of energy relative to national income was 7.7% in 1970 and 8.3% in 2013. 2015 will print near 6%.

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/sec1_17.pdf

She better find a better explanation for the increase in debt relative to national income than energy costs.

Consider that the value of residential real estate rose from 80% of national income in 1980 to 160% in 2006 and in 2015 is about 120%.

GregT on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 11:56 am 



Discontinuity itself may be clearly defined, but what that discontinuity is in, is not. It is all a matter of ones perspective.

I would argue that there has already been multiple discontinuities in what has long been considered to be the norm, and there will be many more as this process continues to unfold. Many working class citizens, for example, have already lost their jobs, their homes, and their life savings, while others have increased their “wealth” considerably. The gap between the rich and the poor continues to grow at an alarming pace. A discontinuity in of itself.

Apneaman on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 11:57 am 



WHAT COLLAPSE? THE WORLD LOOKS FINE TO ME STUPID DOOMERS.

http://imgur.com/YFONKsP

Davy on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 12:07 pm 



Hello, we are not privy to that information naturally. We can model and do risk management analysis but little more. The time frame to be concerned about is the here and now. Basic preparations start there and increasingly build like a pyramid of preparations. Pyramid levels building upon each other in levels of increasing security.

I am working on my phase 3 prep effort which is now mainly long term prep strategies and investments in prep items with a future. Phase 4 will be attempting to influence my local with concrete efforts. That is the final phase and the most important. It is also the most difficult.

Apneaman on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 12:11 pm 



Orlov – My Prescription for 2016: Collapse Early and Often

“There are some general properties of collapses to keep in mind.

1. All things that must collapse eventually do. All empires collapse—no exceptions. All buildings collapse—unless they are demolished first. All Ponzi schemes—such as the current financial system, based on runaway debt—collapse when you least expect them to. Seeing as collapses aren’t optional, it makes sense to get used to the idea of them happening, and to learn how make the best of them. Some people consider this and are filled with grief. As I pointed out before, collapse is the worst possible time to suffer a nervous breakdown, so please get your blubbering over with ahead of time.”

http://cluborlov.blogspot.ca/2016/01/my-prescription-for-2016-collapse-early.html

Davy on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 12:23 pm 



We need to look to places like Syria and Greece for real collapse strategies that have been means tested. Those areas of the world with the most difficulties are where the best education is for what may be ahead in more and more places.

‘We can’t close, people need bread’: Syrians tell RT how they cope with Damascus blackouts”

https://www.rt.com/news/327998-syria-power-outages-blackouts/

“In the grip of war, Syrians have been coming up with ways to power the country. Damascus has been rationing electricity, while residents must resort to additional tricks to make it last, as RT’s Murad Gazdiev found out.”

Revi on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 12:23 pm 



I am watching some kids play Jenga, and it seems like it’s an apt analogy for our culture. They keep taking sticks from the bottom of the pile and stacking them on top. The pile seems to be solid, but it’s not going to last, particularly since the bottom is getting thinner and thinner…. We know it’s going to fall over, but we can’t say when. So it is with our economy. We keep hollowing out the base and stacking it on top, but it won’t last too much longer…..

Revi on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 12:25 pm 



It’s amazing how long it can go on…

GregT on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 12:55 pm 



Closing the ‘Collapse Gap’: the USSR was better prepared for collapse than the US

A presentation by Dmitry Orlov

Before the anti-american rhetoric, once again, rears it’s ugly face, please consider the following from Dmitry:

“I anticipate that some people will react rather badly to having their country compared to the USSR. I would like to assure you that the Soviet people would have reacted similarly, had the United States collapsed first. Feelings aside, here are two 20th century superpowers, who wanted more or less the same things – things like technological progress, economic growth, full employment, and world domination – but they disagreed about the methods. And they obtained similar results – each had a good run, intimidated the whole planet, and kept the other scared. Each eventually went bankrupt.”

http://www.resilience.org/stories/2006-12-04/closing-collapse-gap-ussr-was-better-prepared-collapse-us

Think with your brains people, not your emotions.

shortonoil on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 1:07 pm 



“A discontinuity is clearly defined: d/dt = inf.”

A discontinuous function is not an undefined differential.

A function is said to be continuous at x=a if the following conditions hold:

1) f(a) is defined
2) lim f(x) exists: x → a
3) lim f(x) = f(a): x → a

“If f is not continuous at x=a, we say, that f is discontinuous at x=a, or, equivalently, that x=a is a point of discontinuity for f.”

You are a big mouth idiot, who knows absolutely nothing, and should stick to wearing out the carpet in your mother’s basement.

marmico on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 1:07 pm 



Not sure what you’re blabbering about, as usual. Not even sure if you know yourself what your blabbering about.

Now that it is established that Tverberg is a nutter doomer blabberer, I will ask the quart shy of oil for the umpteenth time: Kindly demonstrate that it takes 48,900 Btus to refine one gallon of oil?

Davy on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 1:10 pm 



The above Orlov presentation is valid but passé. The reality is the entire global system is now at a new phase beyond 20th century comparisons. Comparing the US to the USSR is fine but please include the rest of the world power centers because they are nearly as exposed with consumption overshoot. All population areas are equally at risk of an end to globalism. Asia is off the charts unprepared because of population overshoot.

People like Orlov are selling a message which inevitably leads to a narrow agenda. The reality of the global system and participants is much more subtle and grey. It is also situational. We don’t know how this collapse process will unfold.

We are all aware of the mess the Brics are in. These facts are undeniable. Last year all we heard is how the brics were going to kick butt and take names. That was a flop. Anyone here on this board who gets the daily treat of American hate mail posts knows how bad the US is doing on many levels. So I am not sure the above comment has a very strong point that knocks our socks off. I have the book and it was a good read. It is old news now.

GregT on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 1:39 pm 



I don’t have a particular vested interest in what happens half way around the globe. I am more concerned with what will happen in my own immediate vicinity. That being said, areas such as the one that I recently opted out of, (a densely populated North American city) will be hit the hardest, and Dmitry does a very good job of describing exactly why that will be the case.

It isn’t old news, because it has not yet occurred, but it will.

Davy on Tue, 5th Jan 2016 2:12 pm 



Good point but I do have a vested interest in the entire global system as a delocalized local. All locals depend on one another in a multitude of different relationships. Since we don’t know the globalism decay scenario we must be vigilant for collapse evidence.

Our local decay and or collapse will be influenced by how the global system unwinds. Until that process is fully understood it is still a big unknown as to who is actually the most exposed. The rest is speculation with more or less supporting evidence, some with good scientific analysis and plenty of agenda driven emotions. We know the variables in the equation but don’t know the equation yet.