At $10 a barrel of oil, your gas would be cheap, but your job could be gone.

Oil producers would cease operations because they would not be able to turn a profit, which translates to a loss of jobs and a hit to the economy.

After all, oil production is a driver of income growth, gross domestic product and economic recovery.

“Ten dollars is possible but not for a sustained period of time,” said Patrick DeHaan, a senior petroleum analyst at Gasbuddy.com.

Although gasoline would be about $1 a gallon, DeHaan said it’s a “short-lived win for motorists at the pump.”

“It could lead to a recession,” he said, adding that the oil and gas industry would affect all sectors of the economy.

Anything is possible, but both analysts and economists consider the possibility of $10-a-barrel oil laughable — even though the cost for a barrel over the past year has dropped more than 50 percent. The high in 2014 was an average price of $98.70 compared with the 2014 low of $54.86 in December, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

PNC Bank economist Mekael Teshome foresees the future of oil prices on an uptick. PNC forecasts the price up to $60 a barrel for a 2015 fourth-quarter average.

“We are saying it has bottomed out, and we expect it to increase modestly,” Teshome said.

In February, Bloomberg View columnist A. Gary Shilling, and president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a New Jersey consulting agency, wrote that $10 a barrel oil is possible and supplied several reasons why, including the low demand for oil but high supply.

Daniel Flynn, an energy analyst and trader at Chicago-based Price Futures Group, believes prices won’t fall that low. That includes the impact of the U.S. nuclear deal with Iran, which would lift economic sanctions and put Iran’s oil supply into the market.

“[The deal is] not going to put a dent in the market for at least a year,” Flynn said.

Phil Flynn, another analyst of the Price Futures Group, said oil prices will bounce back to about $80 by the end of the year because demand will improve, and cutbacks in U.S. production will reduce supply. Oil and natural-gas production will eventually start to fall, he added.

CAUSES

Oil prices have declined from more than $100 a barrel to about $50 because of a global oversupply, said Shawn Bennett, Ohio Oil and Gas Association executive vice president.

OPEC, an intergovernmental organization of 12 oil-exporting developing nations that includes Saudi Arabia, made the decision last Thanksgiving not to cut production to weaken U.S. oil production.

The worldwide economy has also played a part in oil prices dropping. The European economy is weak, and China also has been in a depressed period.

“The stronger the economy is worldwide, the more demand for energy is going to be,” said George Mokrzan, director of economics for Huntington Bank. “I think the price of oil will come back.”

COST IMPACT

The more than 50 percent drop in prices has made U.S. producers tighten their business, and, in turn, so have the companies that supply products to the producers.

Vallourec Star in Youngstown produces small-diameter pipe for the oil and gas industry. In February, the drastic drop in oil prices caused leaders there to make the decision to lay off employees for three weeks and offer voluntary six-month layoffs. In addition, Vallourec made adjustments in production schedules, negotiations with suppliers and minimized the use of contractors.

“With falling oil prices, our customers are scaling back their drilling plans,” said Jean Gaetano, manager of communications for Vallourec Star. “The U.S. rig count continues to drop. This decline has impacted our pipe orders, and we have adjusted our forecasts for the year.”

Some positives also have resulted from the drop.

Consumers have been able to spend less at the pump. In December, many Mahoning Valley residents were enthusiastic to pump gas when its price hit $1.99 a gallon or less.

“Essentially, all consumers and businesses have to utilize energy to some degree, and some extensively,” Mokrzan said. “With the cost coming down, that frees up money for other expenditures.”

Teshome said the drop has benefited many Northeast Ohio manufacturers, and Mokrzan agreed.

“The real issue is how long is this impact going to be,” Mokrzan said. “It is a volatile situation. It creates factors that are positive for some and negative for others.”

The drop has required producers to become more disciplined with production.

The U.S. rig count as of April 10 is 760, compared 802 a week ago, and 1,517 a year ago, according to Baker Hughes. Production in the U.S. went from 288,934 barrels in December 2014 to 284,737 barrels in January 2015, according to the Energy Information Administration.

Chris Faulkner, CEO and chairman of Dallas-based Breitling Energy, said the company has had to shift interest in where it drills. The shift went from the Bakken formation in North Dakota to the Permian basin in west Texas.

“For us, right now that is the most economical area to drill in,” he said.

The drop in prices has caused the company to “drill better and drill faster,” Faulkner said. “That allows us to maximize what we are doing and minimize the cost.”

VOLATILE PRICES

But the volatile prices also took some jobs away.

Faulkner predicts the year will finish with prices at $63 a barrel.

“We do not see oil coming back to $100 until the end of this decade,” he said.

Faulkner would like to see U.S., Mexico and Canada join forces to diminish the influence of OPEC on the price of a barrel of oil.

“If you add the production of the U.S., Mexico and Canada together it would be higher than OPEC’s,” Faulkner said. “We have the 800-pound gorilla, so we should be able to sit and talk at the table.”

The goal would be to form a North American Energy Confederation within the next 12 to 24 months.

“The idea of North American independence I don’t think is crazy at all,” he said.

Faulkner explained benefits of the confederation for the consumer: It would better allow the oil shipments to flow, it would reduce overhead costs, and oil would be refined and delivered for less.

Canada and Mexico are both interested in the confederation, he said.

“If we are all on the same side, then it gives a viable opponent to OPEC,” Faulkner said. “We have taken it up to Capitol Hill and are working with lawmakers to see if we could get buy-in.”

IMPACT AT $10 OIL

In Ohio, OOGA’s Bennett said prices already are affecting production, citing the decline in the rig count.

According to the Ohio Department of Natural Resources, the average rig count was at a low of 36 in March 2014 and hit a high in November 2014 with 53. But by March 2015, the rig count was an

average of 26.

With $10-a-barrel oil, “you would see all those rigs leaving the state,” Bennett said.

He said Saudi Arabia has the advantage over U.S. producers because the country has geological formations where the oil just flows and also a government that has full control over the industry, which brings lower production costs.

Mokrzan believes a drop to $10 a barrel is very unlikely.

“It is not in [the producers’] interest to drive it so low that will really hurt their revenues,” he said. “I do not think that would happen.”

Neither does Teshome. Into 2016, PNC forecasts oil at an average of $63 a barrel. “We have been through this before in 2008 when people said $200 a barrel was a possibility,” he said. “If the price goes down too low then we will see some companies go out of business.”

Vindy.com

62 Comments on "Free fall in oil prices could fuel recession"

James Bond on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 9:25 am 



This is funny. When oil price climb it’s whining about lost jobs. When oil prices decline it’s whining about lost jobs.

Don’t all those analyst morons not realize that the CHANGE causes pain? Any change of price will always cause adjustments pain (and loss for some) and adjustment opportunity (and gain for others).

rockman on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 9:29 am 



“After all, oil production is a driver of income growth, gross domestic product and economic recovery.” No it isn’t. Oil production in itself isn’t even a driver of income growth or recovery for the oil companies. Higher oil prices are. It was those higher prices that produced high production in the US…not vice verse. And higher oil prices show a very clear correlation to economic recessions. It was the lower oil prices of the mid 80′ and the years that followed that aid the global economic recovery.

This is one of the more bizarre articles posted here in a long time IMHO.

Nony on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 9:40 am 



oil is a factor of production. Only for countries that are strongly net exporters, is high price helpful. For those that are net consumers or even breaken, the economic benefits are from lower prices.

This is why I think it is silly when Davy or the like cite low* prices as some sort of win for peak oil. It’s pretty funny when you cite low OR high prices as some sort of peak oil story like Davy, Heinberg, etc. do. Completely misunderstanding the rug market basics of supply and demand.

*er, than 100, still higher than 30 blablabla.

Rodster on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 10:02 am 



“This is funny. When oil price climb it’s whining about lost jobs. When oil prices decline it’s whining about lost jobs.”

Ah, and as Shortonoil and Gail Tverberg have explained many times. We are at a point we oil is priced too high for the average consumer because of falling wages and priced too low for the energy producers.

One of the reasons why fracking has become popular is because of the Fed’s “ZIRP”.

Rodster on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 10:05 am 



Also Govt’s around the world fund their budgets and pay for their entitlement programs with their energy exports. When it drops too low in price it puts a squeeze on their budgets.

Davy on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 10:21 am 



NOo, things sound silly to those whose comprehension is narrow. You are a truly narrow minded Econ 101 wonk. You are utterly unable to see the global system in terms of dynamic systems. This will be to your disadvantage eventually when SHTF and you have done zero preparations. I am curious how your deflated bubble will appear then.

Peak oil dynamics is about oil and the economy in a dysfunctional relationship. This involves demand, supply, and affordability. Really quite simple but obviously beyond your abilities.

Being smart is more about diversity of understanding then specialization in the coming descent. Your type NOo will be extremely disadvantaged. Not that you are that smart just talk a good talk. I admit you are ahead of me in several areas but that is not saying much.

shortonoil on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 10:33 am 



“We are saying it has bottomed out, and we expect it to increase modestly,” Teshome said.

They must be following our posts, and reading our site. That is what we have been saying for about a year. We even predicted the present fall in prices a year ago:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

The only difference is that after oil prices reach the $60 in 2016, they will once again begin to fall. The oil age will end when producers can no longer make money producing oil, and that is not very far into the future. What, if any, remaining capital will be looking for a place to go. Figuring out where that will be is the key to the future!

http://www.thehillsgroup.org

Nony on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 10:39 am 



Davy, you don’t even know enough to know what you don’t know.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

marmico on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 10:40 am 



We are at a point we oil is priced too high for the average consumer because of falling wages and priced too low for the energy producers.

Tverberg and quart shy of oil are affordability buffoons.

Tick, tock. Tick, tock.

When the 1st quarter data for 2015 is published later this month, gasoline spending will be more affordable relative to cash wages and salary or after tax income than at any time in the last 10 years.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/fredgraph.png?g=17pl

The world will keep pumping 77 mb/d of crude + condensate for the balance of 2015.

Davy on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 10:54 am 



Marmi, ass-wipester, think about the global system as a dynamic system. We know the 1%er and (1%er wanna-be’s like you and the NOo) can afford oil. The real economy most live in cannot grow and expand as needed with oil net energy stagnating IOW macroeconomic affordability is dropping. How friggen simple is that? Even a high schooler can figure out that dynamic.

Davy on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 10:57 am 



NOo are you trying to talk like your buddy Donald Rumsfeld:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GiPe1OiKQuk

Plantagenet on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 11:09 am 



I don’t think the falling oil prices due to the oil glut are going to cause a recession. I think the rise in oil prices AFTER the oil glut is over will cause the recession.

MSN Fanboy on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 11:43 am 



Well, that’s interesting…

I pinged of Nonys email address thinking it was lil Planter posting under different names and I got Marmico.

MARMICO & NONY HAVE THE SAME IP ADDRESS…

ALMOST AS IF THE COMMENTS ARE COMING FROM THE SAME PERSON.

Lil Planter, you don’t need to give me your email address now babes 😉

Good thing that Email Address (required) is there LOL

Apneaman on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 11:54 am 



That’s interesting MSM, but how did you get the email addresses? I thought that was private – not to be published.

marmico on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 11:54 am 



ALMOST AS IF THE COMMENTS ARE COMING FROM THE SAME PERSON.

I’ll second Nony’s motion that Davy-boy should get treatment for his Dunning-Kruger prepper disease. He blew through his trust fund and now is enlightened with BAUtopian goat shit on his boots. Call to vote on the motion. Motion carried unanimously.

MSN Fanboy on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 12:37 pm 



Apneaman, nothing is private on the internet. ESPECIALLY ON A WORD PRESS COMMENTS BOARD. Every comments ip is tracked via its email link.

Marmico and Nony have separate email addresses (Hence it looks like different posters) but the ip is exactly the same.

I use a burner email address lol, even so any of you can find my ip address in any comment I make.Unless I reroute through Tor of p2p.

The trick is to have ADMIN status to check accounts, AS THE ADMIN IS THE ONLY ONE WHO CAN SEE EMAIL ADDRESSES.

The next part requires knowledge of HTML and the servers on which this site is based, which again I can ping on the command line to match the servers.

Then I cant tell you the rest (Some call it hacking)

Ill give you a hint, go on view in the toolbar of your browser and click source.

Lets just say that HTML can be temporarily changed if you have the right cracking software.

For example, I can temporarily become ADMIN in an open browser.

But again as I said from the start, nothing is private on the internet.

Don’t worry about it lol, I just troll the trolls. THE TRUTH WILL OUT.

Besides, its a useless skill, especially in our collective future.

Davy on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 12:38 pm 



Damn, Marmi, I was baiting you for another good derogatory term but only got “Dunning-Kruger”. I must say “ass-hat” is a good one I had not heard before.

Marmi my trust fund is alive and well. I am worth a ton of money if BAU holds together. BAU won’t hold together so why care. I don’t need money from the trust anyway so it is not a part of my thinking. I have my own money and draw on from my own wealth. I have my doomstead and a great family.

I am not impressed with money like wanna-be’s like you are. I am sorry you are just an ass-hater 1%er wanna-be with no trust fund playing penny trader.

shortonoil on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 12:52 pm 



Tverberg and quart shy of oil are affordability buffoons.

Thanks! Myself, and about 200 million other people think Gail is a pretty sharp lady. The Chinese even hired her to come, and teach the oldest civilization in the world some new things about oil. When you come up with a real original idea (outside of your despicable bad manners) come back an let us know. May all the visitors here live so long!

Apneaman on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 1:05 pm 



Thanks MSN, I was checking if you were the site admin. I am aware that some of the stuff you mentioned is possible. One of my young relations has those skills. Thanks for the heads up on the creature known as Nony-Marmico. I guess it’s possible that they are twins or lovers who Cohabitate 😉

Apneaman on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 1:13 pm 



Nony-Marmico
Funny that the cowardly creature known as Nony-Marmico accuses others of having a world view based on their emotions. How fucking pathetic and childish does one have to be to pretend to be more than one person on the same site to advance their agenda?

Hey creature Nony-Marmico! Speaking of Dunning-Kruger effect, I think you have fallen prey to it – overrated your ability to fool everyone. What a sad little creature.

Nony on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 1:38 pm 



That’s hilarious that you think we are the same person. Somebody done got their syber sleuth mixed up.

marmico on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 1:39 pm 



Motion: discuss the Rodster’s consumer affordability/producer marginal cost model.

Moved: Consumer affordability for petroleum products is just fine. Lowest in 10 years.

Further moved: $60 WTI marginal U.S. LTO producer cost is just around the corner.

Further and alternatively moved: The quart shy of oil’s ETP model is pure buffoonery. What’s the ETP ratio for Q1, 2015, one notch shy of a full dipstick? Where is that big ETP decline in distillate consumption with a 50% reduction in rig count?

Apeman is an asshat in a long line of them. Try not to drool feces on your tie.

GregT on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 1:45 pm 



“MARMICO & NONY HAVE THE SAME IP ADDRESS”

Thanks MSN. Just as I have suspected for quite some time. I also suspect that the troll has used other sock puppets here as well.

What a loser.

Davy on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 2:11 pm 



Marmster, make a motion on affordability for the global system at limits of growth in dimminishing returns. Could it be this is why Freddy can’t lower rates? Might this be why the system is awash in notional debt representing who knows what planet in the solar system because this planet was maxed out back in 07. Marmi, reality is not your Freddy fluff and life is more than consumer affordability.

Apneaman on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 3:36 pm 



What a loser. Cowardly Skulking Loser.
Gollum Gollum Gollum Gollum

steve on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 3:57 pm 



Look, I know I have said it before but why do you let someone like Marmico or Noony knock you off your rock! It speaks volumes to your character…I don’t agree with him but I wish he was right; for the most part, I know he is only wishful thinking…so I move on..You don’t have to resort to name calling…we have a long dirty, dusty road ahead of us and we don’t know where it will take us; so man up boys and don’t let everything get to you!! I have been preaching peak oil since 1992 and have had a lot of people laugh and make fun of me through the years…and I have been wrong about things as well…when I told people back then that we would all be driving electric cars by now and the infrastructure would be built around diminishing returns of energy. I underestimated the ignorance and greed and selfishness of man…
This is an interesting quote “the only time your are alive is when you are born and when you die” perhaps this world is about to be born again when it dies…

steve on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 4:03 pm 



One more point that I have to make is anyone saying that we won’t see price get to this level or that level….I don’t understand when you are pricing it in Fiat? One day the $$ could be worth very little and it could be $1000 dollars a barrel…Fiat is heavily manipulated…So predicting prices just gives the naysayers ammo to say see you were wrong…

Apneaman on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 4:28 pm 



Anonymous Internet persona’s and games are not to be taken too seriously Steve. We could all be girls for all you know. It’s not all that different than TV. It’s not really real. Even public figures like McPherson, JMG, etc are putting on a show to some degree. The Nony-Marms of the doomersphere are my foils. Just think of how boring it would be without them.

Davy on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 4:38 pm 



Steve, believe it or not I like Marmi and his boy wonder the NOo. I enjoy irritating them. I like when they call me names. Call me what you will but these guys are just toys.

Anyone on here with substance I never toy with. I show the highest respect for those with a true heart IOW truth seekers. Anyone who unjustly bashes someone on here of substance and integrity gets my wrath for what it is worth. Marmi routinely bashes Rock & Short. He deserves a tongue lashing for that likewise the NOo.

I too wish BAU were wonderful and progress would lead us to a shiny world of happiness for man and nature but we know that is the deception of the human mind at work. The reality is we shit our nest and now we will pay the price. Marmi and his boy NOo are incapable of accepting responsibility for this as we all must. That puts them in the class of forum toys.

steve on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 4:41 pm 



@ Apeman…Uh… I think you just proved my point—-Although I am not sure what your point is…

“Just think of how boring it would be without them.”….ok so you need a avenue to call people “assholes,coward, shithead,loser etc….because they disagree with you. Maybe it is a generational thing I just don’t get…

shortonoil on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 4:43 pm 



Where is that big ETP decline in distillate consumption with a 50% reduction in rig count?

YOY, from 04/05/14 to 04/03/15 distillate inventories rose by 13.73 mb. That is after a 50% decline in the price of oil. The price decline has had almost no impact on consumption.

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WDISTUS1&f=W

Obviously, the economy can not afford additional oil production, and the price has only one way to go.

We will await your next very enlightening statement!

Apneaman on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 6:07 pm 



I agree-you don’t get it steve.

I’ll try and use more emoticons so you don’t get too confused. 😉 🙂 🙁 😉 :O 🙂 😉 🙂 🙁 😉 :O 🙂 😉 🙂 🙁 😉 :O 🙂 😉 🙂 🙁 😉 :O 🙂 😉 🙂 🙁 😉 :O 🙂 😉 🙂 🙁 😉 :O 🙂 😉 🙂 🙁 😉 :O 🙂 😉 🙂 🙁 😉 :O 🙂 😉 🙂 🙁 😉 :O 🙂 😉 🙂 🙁 😉 :O 🙂 😉 🙂 🙁 😉 :O 🙂 😉 🙂 🙁 😉 :O 🙂 !!!!!!

Davy on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 6:53 pm 



Ape Man, Steve is a good guy.

You and I probably should go back on our Asshole meds. At least we can medicate and be decent people. There are no meds for the NOo and the Marmi. They are certifiable loons no meds can help.

Apneaman on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 7:37 pm 



Why Davy, I’m just getting My Rocks Off

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aY6PFccu-k

Some men need some killer weed, some men need cocaine
Some men need some cactus juice, to purify the brain
Some men need two women, some need alcohol
Everybody needs a little something, but Lord I need it all

To get my rocks off, get my rocks off
Get my rocks off the mountain, and roll ’em on down the hill

I may do you one time, and I may do you more
I may turn you into something, that you ain’t ready for
I might want your body, and I might want your bread
I might want your momma to come visit me instead

And get my rocks off, get my rocks off
Get my rocks off the mountain, and roll ’em on down the hill

Sometimes I dream of chicks, to bring me ever lasting joys
Sometimes I dream of animals, sometimes I dream of boys
Sometimes I kill the living, sometimes I raise the dead
Sometimes I say just screw it all, and crawl back into bed

And get my rocks off, get my rocks off
Get my rocks off the mountain, and roll ’em on down the hill

ERIC N BURIEN WA on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 7:46 pm 



OIL WILL BE AT OR BELOW $ 30 A BARRELL BY 2020 AND LOWER BY 2025 THESE MANIPULATING CRREPS … THAT HAVE KEEP OIL SO HIGH ALL THESE YEARS NEED TO SHUT THE HELL UP AND STOP WEININGTHEY HAVE MADE THERE MONEY .ONCE TESLA HAS THE 500 MILE BATTREY THEY WILL IN A FEW YEARS OIL WILL NEVER SEE $ 30 A BARRELL AGAIN

Davy on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 8:26 pm 



Nice Ape Man!

DAVID on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 8:52 pm 



Funny stuff.
All lies but funny.

Makati1 on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 9:07 pm 



Boring Sunday? So many comments on an obvious, “I gotta write something to get my paycheck”, article. The world is in a recession and the Us is in a depression. Nothing new there.

Davy on Sun, 12th Apr 2015 9:37 pm 



The U.S. is in a depression Makster? Please explain. Is that your way of dealing with your boredom tonight? Embellishing the truth I guess is exciting for you and a way to overcome boredom. It is likely the U.S. is on the way to a depression but it is not there yet. The same is true globally. Makster quit being a moron.

Makati1 on Mon, 13th Apr 2015 2:01 am 



Davy, the Us has never left the depression of 2008. The only way you can believe that all is well is if you believe the lies they call statistics.

The real percentage of truly unemployed today and the number in soup lines far exceeds the worst days of the Great Depression. Inflation is double digits for the things people actually need, not the 2-3% they claim.
Real purchasing power has been declining since the 80s or earlier.

The Us never left the depression and never will. It cannot, as real growth is dead and contraction is it’s long term future.

BTW: Name calling only proves my point.

Perk Earl on Mon, 13th Apr 2015 2:16 am 



Maybe this is how it goes:

Peak plateau
peak QE
peak bickering
peak oil
peak homicide
peak bottleneck
peak farmers

Isn’t that ironic, i.e. the one’s making it through will be rewarded with hard labor in the fields. Ha!

Perk Earl on Mon, 13th Apr 2015 2:34 am 



Hey guys, do you know of the show with Max Keiser? I can’t raise that website anymore. What the heck happened?

Energy Investor on Mon, 13th Apr 2015 3:02 am 



@shortonoil,

I really enjoy your posts and agree with your hypothesis on oil prices etc, except for one thing. I expect governments to create as much money as it takes to keep BAU and the oil industry ticking over.

It is after all what they did for the banks.

Not for altruistic reasons but because their asses are on the line. I will therefore be fascinated to see whether my hypothesis of multiple sharp rises and falls in price between $50-$200/bbl is what heralds the start of the downward production slope over the next couple of years. Or whether you are proven right.

But tell you what. I won’t put any money on the wager…lol

davep on Mon, 13th Apr 2015 4:41 am 



MSN Fanboy is a troll, not a hacker. He didn’t use TOR (he used a UK Orange IP address to sign up) or a disposable email (he used a UK ISP email for that too), and the IP addresses used to post from the two users he claimed were the same were different. In fact one was IPv4 and the other was IPv6. Pretty hard to confuse them, really.

WordPress is insecure, but MSN Fanboy is just a keyboard warrior. He’s easily traceable from his trail here.

Davy on Mon, 13th Apr 2015 6:34 am 



Makster you get yourself confused with reality and your agenda. This is understandable because per your world of fantasy the US must be doing bad and must be the evil one. Every comment is focused on this meme. The real economic story is complex and above your agendist tendencies.

The US and indeed the world has not recovered from the 08 crisis but there is no depression Makster. There is a new normal of financial repression, debt monetization, and extend and pretend of bad debt. Economic indicators, economic statistics, and markets have been allowed to be manipulated. Malinvestment and industry overcapacity counted as growth when it is in reality a growth drag.

This has created a two tier economy of the real and the digital. I call it digital because it is notional and based upon the system not reality. The total financial system including derivatives, unfunded liabilities, and all debt instruments is far in excess of the corresponding real economy. The idea that the system can account for value far into the future with growth of these assets is notional not reality

This is plainly a Ponzi scheme on a global scale with debt and liabilities. This is wealth transfer and cannibalization on a global scale. The wealth transfer is between the politically connected and 1%ers and the remaining majority. The shrinking upper middle class is under pressure. The traditional middle class and especially the lower class are being triaged out of the game.

This has allowed the rich to grow. The pie is shrinking economically and with foundational resources of food and energy. Food productivity is dropping with industrial AG and water stress. Oil’s net energy is dropping hence affordability is dropping for the macro economy. This is clearly limits of growth with diminishing return in an environment of overpopulation and overconsumption. This is global and interconnected with no nation or region immune. That is an indicator of economic and population overshoot IOW a bottleneck situation

Makster, we are somewhere within the transition of the bumpy plateau and bumpy descent. To call it a depression is your typical agendist simplicity to bash and trash the US. Pretty low IQ which happens when one is concerned with agenda propaganda and not reality. You cannot stand that the US is still going strong albeit in wealth transfer and cannibalization.

I have watched your agendist comments for months now and you make failed prediction after prediction of the US demise from NUk war destruction to the end of the dollar. The fact is like PO we will not really know the extent of the drop until well past it.

IMHO it is coming it will be a global event and the resulting manifestation of the conditions beyond predictions because there are too many possible scenarios. The scenarios are contingent with consequences and unintended consequences to varied feedbacks and black swan events.

Makster, your Asia is in the same boat as the west within its comparative advantage and disadvantage to its connection to the global and the west. To think a region like Asia is immune to what happens in the west is low IQ. To think Asia can decouple from a sick global is ludicrous. To think Asia’s overconsumption along with overpopulation is not a problem is wishful thinking.

Davy on Mon, 13th Apr 2015 6:52 am 



Makster, sounds like the Makster depression is showing up in Asia:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-12/china-trade-surplus-crashes-exports-imports-collapse-march

Are you going to claim this is from the iron curtain people?

MSN Fanboy on Mon, 13th Apr 2015 7:26 am 



davep 😛

I said I was traceable lol ive got nothing to hide 😀

Im not a hacker, its cracking, for funnsies.

Please send a packet my way, ping pong… you see me… I see you.

Ill make it easy: 19 Windsor drive, solihull b92 8hs England.

MSN Fanboy on Mon, 13th Apr 2015 7:28 am 



Tempted to launch my botnet eDos army…

Davy on Mon, 13th Apr 2015 8:33 am 



MSN, you have contributed worthwhile comments here. You are accepted by your peers. Why introduce computer gaming here. We are searching for the truth of a collapse from Peak Oil dynamics. We need both BAUtopians and doomer to find this truth. What we don’t need is computer gaming. I am impressed you are good at these things but is that going to help us much with our search for the truth?

shortonoil on Mon, 13th Apr 2015 8:36 am 



“I really enjoy your posts and agree with your hypothesis on oil prices etc, except for one thing. I expect governments to create as much money as it takes to keep BAU and the oil industry ticking over.”

That is obviously already happening! The shale industry has a $trillion in debt, with less than $60 billion in annual sales, and has not made a profit in six years. So why are they still in business? It appears that the big banks (the TBTF group) got heavily involved in shale early in the game, and now have a tiger by the tail. They can’t off load their loan portfolios because nobody wants them, or the derivative contracts that are keeping the industry alive. So now shale, which should at this point have become a member of the Dodo bird family, is still pumping stuff that no one wants, or can use. The TBTF banks are members, and owners of the the FED.

Someplace, along the line, someone is going to have to come up with a few $trillion to cover his mess. That someone is going to be the US Treasury, and Treasuries will follow Europe into the negative yield category. When the bond market has to pay the US to loan them money, it is not going to end well!